Free Daily Post: 15/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

SATURDAY MARKET RASEN TRENDS (Summer Plate+Hurdle) HERE>>>

 

TIPS

7.40 Hamilton

(I have just moved the trends/stats to the comments, below)

TATLISU – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) UP

MY NAME IS RIO – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) UP

 

The stats and trends don’t help with this one too much – those I looked at ‘removing’ Lulu The Zulu,Taexali,Mickey. Let’s jump straight to the horses…

Well, the first thing to say is that it is forecast to bucket it down. This should be run on soft, maybe worse. (if the forecasts are correct- ground good as it stands) 

Tatlisu – well you can’t help but be drawn in here by the trainer form in this race and the fact that this one came close last year- one horse Pyle Vinnie dotted up in this last year – he was held up, struggled for a run at times and then switched around runners, and ran on strongly. It would be no surprise if this race has been the season, or mid season, target. His run last time caught the eye – he looks to be coming back into form, and I don’t think had the kitchen sink thrown at him, in a race where being that far back was not beneficial. IF there is no track/rain bias in the ground, I think he could well be over-turning the form with those three in front of him that day – Hoof It, New Bidder, Intense Style. That of courss, in part, is dependent on this being the plan. The jockey takes off a useful 5lb which means he is 1lb below that run last time, when including claims. His win in the Ayr Silver Cup shows that he has a touch of class and this larger field, with guranteed place all over the place (on paper at least) should play into his hands. 8s looked fair and I expect a decent enough run. The possible negative is the draw, but I will get onto that in a moment. 

My Name Is Rio- hmm well 20s just struck me as a bit of a big price in this – for a horse that is in form, running well, will handle the ground- well he will enjoy it, may well appreciate this stiff finish and the pace. He is a sprinter, aged 6, and it is becoming apparent that some/many sprinters can come into there own at this age, improving on past form when you think they may not quite be good enough. He has come a close 3rd in the Ayr Bronze Cup and I can’t say he can’t win at this level- and this race is not as strong as many a C2 sprint handicap. It is decent, but there will be many stronger. The last run – well I have watched it again and he ran ok. He was a bit taken off his feet early I think and the winners/placers simply didn’t come back. He kept on near the end, as he did with his win two starts ago. To win at that track, over that trip, from right out the back was fairly impressive – again he had a fast pace to aim at and he was strong in the finish- to my eye looks like he could have pulled away more over further. A stiff 6f, on soft, with a strong pace to aim at, could see him out-run his odds here. He has the second best speed rating in the race which was also interesting for me. Maybe he doesn’t have the class but he is in form and I though 20s, in these conditions, looked generous. 

PACE/race set-up… for the last few years this race has gone to those nearer the stands rail but on the actual draw stats, on soft over this trip, in fields this size, the only negative has been for those drawn 1-5. There have been winners and placed horses across all other stalls. It could be there is a track bias and if that is the case both of these may struggle but I can’t fancy and higher drawn ones here, over the selections. Nameitwhatyoulike (who could go well in this) likes to force the pace usually, and he is drawn 8. Munfallet in 16 (if good enough to lead) likes to get on with it, as does Hoof It in 14 and Cornwallville (7) likes to be up there. There are also a few pace pushers in here who often race prominently. Now, jockeys may take it easier due to the ground, but on paper at least this race shouldn’t be lacking for pace. As such, i am hoping it may set up for a closer- with the leaders doing too much in this ground and folding late- both of the selections are closers and if it does go to one near the front, it won’t be either of these two. 

As always in a race like this you can make a case for a few. A few don’t have proven form in soft, some haven’t tried it many times, which makes it tricky. Blaine – well he has to prove he enjoys really soft and is 12lb higher than for that Epsom win, which hasn’t worked out well . He was poor LTO but maybe he didn’t like the AW. He is smart on his day and if handling soft, and repeated that Epsom run, may give it a good go. Orion’s Bow is going for the 5 timer. I would like to think the handicapper may have him now, and he also has a question over the going – if the rain arrives as expected. Nameitwhatyoulike progressed a lot last year, aged 6, and ran well on seasonal reappearance. He has since had 84 days off which was a bit off putting and Fanning is 0/6,0 places for the yard in last 730 days. Trainer is in form, but while he should lead low, he shouldn’t get all his own way. Hopefully he forces a strong pace. Amazour is unexposed and progressive – soft an unknown – if handling it may go well enough. The two 3 year olds are clearly unexposed and could get involved, but both have enough questions for me in a race like this – neither has won over 6f as yet. Hoof It/Intense Style/New Bidder- all three may be close enough again, based on their last run. I think Tatlisu may overturn it, if not inconvenienced by the draw, and they will need to step forward again for me. But, I wouldn’t be in shock if one won, as I wouldn’t with most of these. Intisaab is short enough for one having gone up again in the weights and with a ground question to answer. Looks progressive though so again, a big run would be no shock. Competitive as always. 

Hopefully one of these two can improve on my questionable flat form in the ‘tips’ , so far this season. I think they will both out-run these odds and I just hope after 1f it is clear they are going a strong pace – the harder the better for the both of them. 

 

There is a 3m+ handicap chase on Ireland, a decent one, but I will leave it. I don’t bet/follow Irish racing that closely- or closely enough to make tackling a race like this a bit easier – I don’t know the horse, the trainers that well, or the tracks. It also looks rather competitive (using geegeez instant expert tab,win and place, with not too many, on the face of it, you can dismiss. I will just stick to the race above) 

 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(Running total: +20.5 points) 

8.35 Pontefract

Hidden Gem – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) UP 12/1

 

The market may well guide for this one (and early signs may not be that positive) but at the odds, given some of the stats, circumstances, I thought he was worth a go. The way in was the trainer form here- he has only sent 10 runners, 3 have won, 6 have won or placed. In handicaps in the last 730 days those stats are 2/5, 4 places. He is not a prolific winner with handicap debutants in the last year, but over the las two is 10/54, 21 places. This one his having his first start on turf  and I found it interesting that his sire is 7/17,11 wins/places with all runners at the track, 4/9,6 places in handicaps (in last 730 days) He should relish the ground. Ponte is only due a spot of rain that should take the sting out – It should not be going any worse than Good, if forecasts are correct. So, we shall wait and see on that front. This one steps up by 3 furlongs from his maiden runs and is well related to some smart enough middle distance horses. It should suit and from the odds etc it doesn’t look like he was ever there to run well. The break of 51 days is interesting, for this type of runner. Given a bit of time to further develop maybe, and/or actually trained for fitness and ‘to go’. Maybe a wind op. Or of course, there has been a problem. The trainer is in form – a green ’14’- 2/17 last 14 days, but over 50% have placed. They are running well enough. Finally, it looked like the Fahey/Johnston horses (the only two being backed) could take each other on at the front. I hope they do. This isn’t the greatest of races and at 8s, given all the above, I thought he looked worth an interest. 

That is all for today 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

Meehan Maidens (any odds)

4.05 Notts: Alaskan Breeze 

8.25 Newm: Sistine Chapal / Nawkhatha 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

5.35 Notts – Douglas Bank (any odds) UP

6.50 New- Ravenhoe (12/1<) UP

7.30 Ponte – El Viento (9/1<)  DNQ

8.05 Ponte – Spring Offensive (9/1<) 2nd

8.45 Ham- Falcons Fire (any) WON 5/1>3/1

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None today. There are plenty of races of interest, but I have run out of time. That lot above has taken 3 hours, so I will leave it there. 

NOTE: Long Awaited (previous ‘tip’) runs in the 3.50 Haydock today. I can’t work out if he likes soft or not. 0/8,0 places on soft, but in his early days he won on Heavy. I am unsure if that is an anomaly say. Interested to see how he goes but at around 6s I won’t be ‘tipping him‘.

***

POST COMPLETE

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Josh, will you be having a look at the tasty-looking 3m1f chase Kilbeggan 8.30 tomorrow?

    Ali 14/07/16 6:56 PM Reply


    • I rarely glance over the Irish Sea but as you ask and put it in such terms I suppose I had better take a look! If I have time in the morning I will have a good look. – a quick glance on Geegeez – yep that does look tasty, and bloody competitive. Will give it a glance. Down Under is on my notes for tomorrow from stats reports in terms of trainer track form. We shall see.

      Josh Wright 14/07/16 7:15 PM Reply


      • ok, no worries if time doesnt permit. just curious to know your take on the race

        Ali 14/07/16 10:04 PM Reply


        • yep that race defeated me, albeit even If I had the time i can’t say I would have been that confident. Looks tough. Good luck if you play one or two. Anything stand out to you?

          Josh Wright 15/07/16 9:23 AM Reply


          • Similar predicament to you. My Irish excursions tend to end in dire defeat and a winner that leaves me scratching my head. I think I’ll go out and enjoy the sun instead

            Ali 15/07/16 10:46 AM Reply


  • Looks set to rain on the trends race tomorrow. Still, quite a few mud slingers in there, even just from the shortlist so doesn’t really help whittle the field down

    Ali 14/07/16 10:53 PM Reply


  • First bit of decent racing all week. I am on Tatlisu in the Scottish Stewards Cup. Also like Syrian Pearl Newmarket 19:50, Adam’s Ale Haydock 15:50 and Italian Beauty Hydock 17:25.

    Nick Mazur 15/07/16 7:29 AM Reply


    • Yep agree about Tatlisu – everything looks set for a decent run – hopefully doesn’t get marooned middle to low, should be enough pace around him to take him into it – wont matter a jot though if an actual ground bias after rain – we shall see! GL with others.

      Josh Wright 15/07/16 9:25 AM Reply


      • Well that’s the first two in at 12/1 and 6/1.

        Nick Mazur 15/07/16 4:43 PM Reply


        • well done, some top work there. think Gary P tipped up AA. I ran out of time to look at any other races today. at least you have had a good day regardless! Hopefully I/we can add to it further

          Josh Wright 15/07/16 5:05 PM Reply


          • Considering the last two were my most confident picks that was a little disappointing but still a nice day.

            Nick Mazur 15/07/16 6:57 PM Reply


  • I have had a look at a few stats/trends and the following look interesting (to a point)…

    11/15 Top 5 LTO
    14/15 Top 11 LTO (+ a UR)
    OR 100+ : 0/19, 2 places
    0 Distance wins: 0/28, 3 places
    15/15 : 22/1 or shorter… 25/1 + … 0/38, 3 places
    Clear Top Weight: 0/12, 1 place
    0-8 Career runs = 0/9, 1 place
    0-5 handicap runs: 0/19, 2 places
    15/15 placed on at least one of last 4 starts, did not… 0/39, 4 places
    Drop in Class = 0/14, 1 place
    Last Race
    1-7 runners = 0/16, 1 place
    Track… Positives (York/Ascot/Newcastle) …. Hamilton 0/12, 1 place
    Trainer Yard Location
    Scotland: 0/30, 3 places
    Trainers
    Fahey: 5/23, 8 places
    Positives: D Nicholls / M Johnston /T Easterby / Given/ Ryan / Appleby 
    O Meara: 0/4, 3 places
    T D Barron: 0/10, 3 places
    B Smart: 0/5, 0 places

    Josh Wright 15/07/16 7:37 AM Reply


  • 740H Munfallet, the price, which I missed, has halved since last night. I thought it would be a drifter 🙁

    Chris 15/07/16 9:40 AM Reply


    • Yep – I didn’t think, this morning at least, that his price was over generous. He is unexposed and chance may depend on how much rain, albeit has yet to prove cant handle soft- couple of efforts suggest far from ideal. That Leicester form only moderate, but could still be improving- certainly open to further progress this year. The break put me off a tad, (not so much fitness- won after long breaks,but didn’t know if suggested a problem or something) and trainer not banging them in. But, for a front runner, has the best draw- depends if does too much or just gets away. We shall see. Market suggesting a big run expected.

      Josh Wright 15/07/16 9:47 AM Reply


    • Would be a little annoyed if he wins. Won last year’s edition very well – albeit without a jockey on his back!

      Ali 15/07/16 10:38 AM Reply


  • Yes Tatlisu is in my tracker as needing a still 6f….I hope this is just right….
    I got 25/1 on My Name is Rio, but another one I’ve been waiting for is Cornwallville. The only query I have with it is I thought it was crying out for 5f. I presume that’s not what the trainer thinks. lol.

    Tony Mc. 15/07/16 10:39 AM Reply


    • yep, not liking the drift on My Name is Rio and unsure why that would be. 25s feels big to me, but we shall see if I have read that right! Could be he just isnt good enough to keep tabs on them and out stay/slog them near the end- but enough bits and pieces of form for me to have a go. Cornwallville- well he is in the’could be anything’ category still – for a handicapper- I doubted whether he had the experience and thought plenty would have to underperform in here for him to take this – but he can push the pace and could be in the right place if they don’t kill each other. Ground an unknown – cant say wont handle it – last run, well may not have been good enough, out-stayed, or working up to something! At 25s you’ve probably got to look down the side of the sofa and find something to put on him, if that is your view!

      Josh Wright 15/07/16 11:40 AM Reply


  • Ponte 6.30 Silk Mill Blue 50/1 ! Yes i’m going mad thinking this 2yo can win, but i cant get it out of my head at that price. Watch its run at carlisle , it was woefully nieve and lost coming out of the stalls and was 10-12 lengths behind everything else through the first 2 furlongs, but then started to realise what he was there for and was only beaten 5lengths at the line over 5f. 6f today looks like it may help and with the experience of that run, surely 50/1 is a bit harsh

    James M 15/07/16 11:47 AM Reply


    • well you are going to have to have something on EW now! I looked at the Fahey horse in this but at a single figure price was putt off by the draw- as with your one. A lot has to go right from that wide around here and he cant afford a slow start again. You have to trust your eye and I will watch with great interest. A few trainers of shorter priced ones are not exactly firing either. Burke horse looks the most interesting maybe, 2yo debut winner yest,low draw, supported in market,big race entry. Someone is going to put up a 50/1 winner on here at some point, maybe you will be the first! GL.

      Josh Wright 15/07/16 12:03 PM Reply


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