Free Daily Post: 12/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

NOTE: I should clarify after mentioning a few things about the future of the blog in last couple of days , and a comment just posted on yesterday’s that I am about to respond to- that the majority of the content on this blog WILL remain free at the point of use.

I have no intention or desire to charge for large chunks – even if I wanted to I don’t think there is a market for that in any case. It goes against the ethos. This started out as a free blog and for the most part will remain that way. Any future ‘members club’ is 1. about any recognition of how you may engage/enjoy the blog, but also about added benefits – that some will want/like/enjoy, many will not and will wish to continue as they do now. The other part is also just an ability to block off the odd weekend or big race day for a small charge of £3. I can regulate that. There is no weekend/race day since the start of May, that I would have charged for, had I been able to.  For a few of reasons – mainly performance related! (I mean tips are around -12 points since start of March)

As ever I try and keep you informed with where I am at. Always open, always transparent. Some don’t like it, but if you try and please all the people all the time, you end up pleasing no one I think. What the blog is about, and my approach, is quite clear i think. Some like it, many don’t. And, you don’t have to read it. But, content wise, it won’t really be changing. 

 

 

TIPS 

6.30 Worcester

 

Butlergrove King – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) * UP

*i am sat here still scratching my head at how that race played out. The horse who likes to bowl along taken back – the horse recently held up taken to the front,and the the one who had to prove he stayed, doing it well. The winner was well handicapped and is better than a C4 animal at his best,trainer was in form,TJC good here, and has won 2m5f, just those extra couple furlongs he had some questions over. He not only looked like the winner! Strange ride on the selection, as never really tried to get to the front. Hasn’t run his race – either a) hasn’t liked being surrounded, b) ground got to him but not comfortable using that as an excuse really c) a couple of hard enough races have caught up, but thought break long enough or D) no reason, he is an animal, had an off day, one of those things. That was tame, and disappointing. Hopefully the Williams horse can bring some cheer! 

This consistent try hard has been running well recently and everything looks set here for another bold run. A repeat of either of his last two runs is going to see him in the mix here and at 8s I thought he looked the bet in the race. 

He is 2/9,6 places chasing and it is possible we may not have seen the best of him yet over fences. He is in form, stays further, will relish conditions, will like the ground and looks sure to give it a good go from the front. His last two runs have been decent. At Fontwell the hill may have found him out or he was caught by one with just a bit more toe in the closing stages – he was nailed just on the line. And that race has worked out well. He came second there, the winner has since won again, and so has the 3rd, 4th and 5th. So, there was some substance there for this time of year. He also ran well at Uttoxeter and there was no shame in being beaten by Bog Sound at that track. The winner received a very good ride- mainly because the jockey waited really and let the others beat themselves up. BK couldn’t get an easy lead that day and seemed to be racing with Artic Ben for 11 fences, before he dropped away. 3 fences from home he got in a battle with another horse, and jumping the last they both gave way a bit – well Big Sound just swooped past. To his credit he picked up again and kept on, beating the 3rd, with a big gap back to the rest. He wouldn’t be winning out of turn here. 

PACE is interesting – Leading/being prominent is ‘usually’ the place to be here over fences (meaning hold up horses like Benzel and Velator will have a bit more to do) and it is possible he could get an uncontested lead. Ladfromhighworth does like to be up there but this step back up in trip may mean they are happy to track the pace. For N Against was up there LTO, but that was a 4 runner race and may have been more by default. I don’t think they will gun him at fences early to keep up, but I may be wrong. Dusk Till Dawn (tipped LTO,clearly a monkey) can be up there but again it may be too hot up top and he may decide he can’t be bothered today. He may not of course. So, I hope he can dictate – and if not I hope the jockey doesn’t get into a battle – he is still learning, and has done well at the track from a few rides, and has ridden this one on the majority of his runs (2/7,5 places on him) , and hopefully he can time it right. 

The step back down a furlong may help also from that last run. Then we have the trainer who can do no wrong at the moment, 3/8, 5 places in the last 14 days, 2/8, 4 places at track in handicap chases the last 730 days. 

All in all this one looks the most uncomplicated horse in the race (a few thinkers in here and plenty of headgear) and 8s felt a few points too big to me. He can take a little while to warm up in the jumping stakes (and that may be what keeps him at this level) but he has never looked like falling. I hope come fence 2 or 3 he is in splendid isolation and if so he should be leading them back into the home straight. We shall see if he can hold on from there. 

Of the rest…

Well, in truth this looks a decent enough race for the time of year/class. You could give chances to quite a few and really there are no ‘fall of your seat shocked if they win’ horses in here. Everything has the odd bits of form that could give them some sort of chance. 

Jonjo’s charge is short enough for one who won a novice handicap chase (i do need to look at stats of LTO winners in novice handicap chases, going into a regular handicap chase) clearly they are generally weaker affairs. He is unexposed, and open to improvement, but I cant take 7/2. He is usually held up out the back and the trainer is only 1/22 in the last 14 days. He can win, he may win, clearly, but for me is opposable at that price. There will  be better 7/2 shots than him around today – famous last words as he canters home! Forevermyfriend – until he proves he can stay a trip like this, winning, I can’t really touch him in these chases. Trainer on fire but he is now 0/15,5 places all runs 2m6f+ (most of those handicap chases). There will be stronger stayers in here. One day he may stay, I doubt he will be carrying my money when he does. 

Velator – he has gone back up 2lb for his last run which is harsh. Last win off 118. He returned to some kind of form LTO and I would not be surprised if he built on it, but looks likely to come from the back here and I think there could be better treated ones in here. Certainly a few more with progressive looking profiles. First run at the track and top weight. A few questions but price is ok at 10s. For N Against, a bit like the fav, won a novice handicap chase LTO – it was 4 runners, and I don’t know what to read into that. The capper has been a bit harsh also. I was happy to leave him, but again not a shock if he built on it. He is unexposed…As is stablemate Dusk Till Dawn but after that last run, where I trusted him, I cant really now. A change of headgear again, his attitude is now in question, as is the strength of his win- another in a novice handicap chase. Tom Scu abandons ship and so have I.

Love The Leader doesn’t have many miles on the clock but needs to step up on previous form. Another change of headgear here, having blown the cobwebs away over hurdles the last twice. The trainer is in form but the strength of this ones chase form is in question. But, again, another where your jaw wouldn’t be on the floor were he to run a decent race. Moorlands George keeps finding one or two too good in C4 chases, all winning C5 and I think that will be the case again. He is in form and consistent, but is always beaten a few lengths at this level – or has been so far. I won’t say he definitely can’t win at this level (0/7, 4 places) but there are a few more interesting ones in here and this is hot enough. 9lb above his last win and in that race he carried 11-10, 10-13 here which is an indication of the step up in quality. Pure Poteen is interesting. I would like to think Noel had the choice and the market may guide after a break. He knows how to win and its only his 11th chase start. He stays. He was poor enough LTO and is 10lb above last win, when taking account of claims. He has a bit to do from this mark I think. Another hold up horse. A break to overcome also (has won after 123 days before though)

Bincome is another with stamina questions for me- stronger stayers in here I suspect. Trainer can do no wrong though and he knows how to win. I can’t conclusively say he cant stay, now 0/5, 1 place 2m6-2m7f. He has won at C3 and is well handicapped. He could look like the winner at one stage. Mr Mafia – i think this looks too strong and had a string of places in weak enough novice handicap chases.  A lot will have to fluff lines for him to win this I think.

Does that just leave Kilbree Kid – well handicapped yes – but that’s because he is out of form. Im unsure where Brennan is – who has done all the winning on him – don’t think he is injured – maybe on holiday?- anyway – the ground was too soft LTO so you could put a line through that. But I haven’t been impressed by him when getting conditions recently – everything was fine at Ludlow and Wincanton to win, and he didn’t. He looks a bit regressive and not as good as he once was for me. They put blinkers on first time and they need to do something. Race conditions are fine but George is only 1/31 all runners here last 5 years, 0/10,1 place all runners 730 days, 0/5, 0 places handicap chases in that time. There are many more in form in here and I can’ have him in this – 10s may be ok, but he will need more than Ludlow/Wincanton runs. They will get another win from him at some point around this level. But, given all the above, this looks a decent enough race and I am happy for him to prove me wrong – which clearly on old form, he could do. 

I think that is the lot, for those of you who like reading War And Peace – that is my reading of it. 

Good Luck.*

*weather – I should add going is Good, good to firm in places – some possible morning showers but it is meant to clear and on current forecasts there shouldn’t be any soft near description. Selection has ran well on heavy -best form on this surface- so even if more rain than expected I won’t reach for that as an excuse, albeit it would slightly blunt his ability to poach a lead and bounce along in front. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

None. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +17 points) 

 

8.30 Worcester – In On The Act – 7/1 (general) WON 13/2 (declared, a R4) 

This one looks worth a go at this price. The profile on geegeez ‘IE’ was the ‘way in’. On closer inspection this one has yet to win a handicap hurdle and his form was in winning two novice hurdles, around this time last year, the second of which he was rated OR123 going into it. He is 115 here and while needing to prove it in handicaps part of me has a feeling that at some point he may hose up in one of these. He is lightly raced and clearly has some ability – good/fast ground appears to be the key. Following his second novice win he made his handicap debut in a decent summer C2 handicap hurdle and was never really in it. He then ran over a trip I don’t think he looks like staying. On his return this year he ran over too far again and on heavy. He came back after 61 days in May and wasn’t really fancied, running as if he may have needed it. They appear to have taken their time with this one. He showed much more LTO in a ladies amateur race, on rain softened ground, he was held up with a lot to do at that track. He tried to close and looked a bit one paced in the closing stages. That could have been the ground. In any case, there is every reason to think he could be ready to strike now. Moloney is back up and he usually rides this won handily- unusual for him. There are a couple of pace setters – the Twister horse and Skeltons. Finally, the trainer… 1/3 in the last 14 days and 3/12,4 places with all handicap hurdlers here in last 730 days. This experiences yet unexposed one looks interesting at 7s and if able to build on that last run, on this better ground, could out-run these odds and prove to be better than this mark. There are some showers forecast but this is firm-ish ground and at worst hopefully just takes any sting out of it. Any soft about and we could be up against it. 

That is all for this section. Nothing on the flat caught the eye. 

 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None today. A few races I could look at in more depth but one 2.5 hour race analysis/write up has done me for this morning. 

 

Caitalinas Diamond, a previous test ‘tip’ goes at Bath again here- but she is running in a C5 -now 0/18, 1 place above C6 in handicaps. Also drawn 1. On the basis of the class record I can’t ‘tip’ her here. We all know what will happen now! It is her favoured CD and if this were C6 she would be a ‘tip’- and will be next time she drops to c6 over this CD, preferably from a wide draw, and provided she doesn’t bolt up here! 

 

***

Post complete. 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • What’s your thoughts on kilbree Kid 6.30 worc ?

    mozzer 11/07/16 9:01 PM Reply


    • Will ne tipping in that race,as above,if anything stands out. Will look at him properly in morning. Memory says he has had enough chances and looks a bit regressive now. We shall seem. May stand out at morning prices.

      Josh Wright 11/07/16 9:20 PM Reply


  • Was 20/1 for about 10 mins on sportsbook (lucky to get more than a pound on) !2/1 now

    mozzer 11/07/16 9:34 PM Reply


  • Tom Georges record is 0/14 with his chasers at Worcester in last 4 years,doesn’t mean he can’t win but you wouldn’t be going all in either

    gerry 11/07/16 9:47 PM Reply


  • these are my notes that i picked from somewhere for kilbree kid……5/6/16 JUNE-SEPT Good , quicker ,2m6f – 3m0.5f ,only Paddy Brennan only,flatish tracks,10 or less,well hcped

    thomas 12/07/16 8:57 AM Reply


    • yep- think I have also missed out most important factor, possibly – all chase wins going RH, now 0/10, 2 places LH, 0/7, 1 place LH handicap chases. May just be how races have gone etc. He needs to step up on last 3 runs to take this for me – and I can’t really see why he would do that – blinkers may work and be the reason of course. He will probably make me look silly, but that’s the game!

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 9:04 AM Reply


  • Racing Post suggest that they have been watering at Worcester since Friday to “maintain going”; lets not forget, it is right next to Seven which oft floods the Course and also it had heavy showers there on Saturday, so I’d suggest any more rain and Going will be softer than advertised any way, so no Going concerns for the tip I would venture.

    Also Catalinas Diamond, as you know one of my main tipster sources went for it last week like you, they mention it today saying it is one of those where the mark is more important than the grade, their view is that it has been hampered several times this season and to quote “just needs to see daylight” – they suggest a small e/w wager on it at 14’s but are stronger on the Balding horse (Verne Castle) at 5’s but think the latter could set up the race for the former….

    Ian 12/07/16 9:29 AM Reply


    • Thanks Ian – yep I wouldn’t be overly shocked if CD won I suppose- but the class stats did put me off – that ‘mark being more important than the grade’ is another area for some thought/development in terms of my approach,thinking. We shall see! She is handicapped to win, that is for sure, and with daylight may fall in. Will need luck again from that draw – may be another ‘unlucky run’ on the cards.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 9:35 AM Reply


  • Glad you picked Butlergrove King since I was leaning towards that one (mentioned it in my write up when I tipped up Big Sound last week). I just hope it doesn’t rain too much since he ran ok on heavy but not sure about the quality of that race. Guess we will know in about 8 hours. I tend to agree on Kilbree Kid. He had absolutely prime conditions 2 starts ago at Ludlow (was absolutely smashed as well if you remember) and if he didn’t win than I can’t see him doing well now. Hope I am wrong and he comes second since one of the tipsters I follow has tipped him up.

    Nick Mazur 12/07/16 9:55 AM Reply


    • Yep, can see why some would like him and there are no horses in here who you would confidently put a red line through – (which in party probably means a race to leave but you know me and a 3m+ chase) Feels like too many in form/open to progress to think he could take this really. I couldn’t have him today. Well they are not meant to have too much – just showers – and fact they have been watering to maintain suggests it was getting pretty firm – of course if that isnt true going and it takes a shower to make it soft then so be it. 8s was fair all things considered. Time will tell.

      Money for the Mulholland ‘second string’ has caught the eye. Interested how that one goes after a break and jockey does well on his on few rides he gets. Does need to step up but is open to some improvement still. Just whether race sets up for hold up types, which I am unconvinced it will. Was a scrappy jumper when last seen.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 10:17 AM Reply


      • Appear to be getting more rain than forecast – now 9mm since 8.30 , good, good to soft in places. Watered 6mm yesterday. Brilliant. Still some rain around. Think that does for Kilbree Kid, selection may just about be ok. Not ideal for Williams horse either. Super.

        Josh Wright 12/07/16 10:57 AM Reply


        • One of the things I have done to tighten things up is avoid tipping (since I have to do it the night before given work) when its fast ground and its meant to rain a lot probably for similar reasons as to why you avoid novice chases. The interesting thing is Love The Leader has just come out and he would have been one of the two horses I thought would definitely go on soft ground so maybe not as bad.

          On a separate note what do you use for weather and seeing how much rain they have had in certain places? Something I need to improve on since currently relying on my IPhone weather app.

          Nick Mazur 12/07/16 11:15 AM Reply


  • I’m wondering what you made of Foxtrot Knight yesterday Josh. It was beaten far less than the distance it gave away by going wide into the straight. Spencer hugged the rail until he needed to come off it, Sullivan almost ended up in the car park, but was only a length down at the line. Now the old cliché, I’m not one for blaming jockeys but ………….

    Keith 12/07/16 10:19 AM Reply


    • I won’t blame the jockey there- race panned out as I predicted, and why wasn’t tipped- (albeit he went closer than I thought he might!!) always tough from that draw-(he started in the car park!) he breaks well -so I suppose he had to try and go forward and try and tuck in- as it happens, and as pace set up suggested – there was pace on insider- so he ended up being wide for a little while, before sitting in behind those that really pushed on. Had the kick back and in fairness to jockey, decided to switch around early – he could have tried an inside run, but I believe inside rail is a bit dodgy there? (slower up straight?) but if he had run into trouble, us punters would have said why didn’t you switch wide! He does look like one that needs stoking up as well to get into top gear, which he was doing as they turned in. Suppose he may have just wanted to keep momentum going – guaranteed to do around outside- had to go wider than he may have hoped for.

      Clearly run can be marked I think. Spencer possibly out-rode him- but was also on a horse with more in hand I think, possibly.

      Game of fine margins when you are drawn there, over that trip. Spencer got it right/got the luck this time. Horse still in form so interesting where ends up next. With a better draw he has the gate speed to get a position. He very nearly won, despite the circumstances, so should be kept onside I think.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 10:26 AM Reply


  • No rain here in worcester since 13.30 guys

    Tomo 12/07/16 4:34 PM Reply


    • cheers Tomo- ah good, part of the forecast that was correct. Unless it has gone proper soft, no excuses for either I suspect. Hopefully more good, than good to soft. We will soon find out.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 5:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Yeah trying to find excuses. Given the run by Kilbree Kid pretty certain ground wasnt the reason. To me it looked like he sulked after not getting the lead.

    Nick Mazur 12/07/16 6:06 PM Reply


    • it was just odd- at Uttoxeter he tried to get the lead – he didn’t really try here – and let Velator get on with it – would have like to see him ride him a bit to try and lead – but there were go. Maybe jockey was conscious that he did too much too soon last time so just held off. Maybe he just wasn’t good enough to go with a previous handy enough horse who ran well for the most part,and a winner who had more class – but I would have expected him to be closer for longer. Maybe he did sulk. Anyway, there we go. Winner had a lot going for him bar slight stamina question – in fact ticked every other box bar stamina-, 12s worth that one risk maybe – isn’t hindsight wonderful. I wouldn’t trust him to stay 24f I dont think, and not in a stronger race. Only 20th chase start, aged 8 – maybe getting stronger. The race did fall apart some what also.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 6:24 PM Reply


  • Very disapponting – Burchell red hot as well – Big lump each way went down there – Roll on 8:30

    Joe 12/07/16 6:24 PM Reply


    • yep. It wasn’t enjoyable to watch at any stage. Didn’t even get entertained for the pleasure. The Williams horse will win! Ever the optimist.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 6:36 PM Reply


      • Ask and you shall receive. Easy game this. Well done mate.

        Nick Mazur 12/07/16 7:36 PM Reply


        • Interestingly Maloney said the rain helped in his interview after the race.

          Nick Mazur 12/07/16 7:43 PM Reply


          • never in doubt was it! haha. Didn’t quite ‘hose up’ but that will do!

            Josh Wright 12/07/16 7:45 PM Reply


          • hmm, very interesting! Well, swings and roundabouts, what do us mere mortals know! Clearly last run a prep then I suspect, gradually gearing him up after a break.

            Josh Wright 12/07/16 8:07 PM Reply


  • Booooom!!

    Fantastic ride from Maloney
    Get ya head up and
    Keep the Faith Josh

    Well done

    Joe 12/07/16 7:36 PM Reply


    • Luckily for you Joe, my head rarely drops! (well, clearly it does sometimes, but I will always back myself LONG TERM!) Its worked since Mid 2014 on here, and I can only improve.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 7:44 PM Reply


  • Great pick Josh,your in top form on the jumps,i fired 3 darts in the 6.30,Bincombe was one so 17.5 pts on day,keep it going

    gerry 12/07/16 7:38 PM Reply


    • Thanks Gerry – superb, I can see why many would have been on him- I had a set of ‘he doesn’t stay’ blinkers on- Pleased Velator didn’t hold on as he was last to cross of my list at prices – finally put off by fact he may have been held up haha. What do I know! Glad you had a piece, good day all round.

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 7:43 PM Reply


  • I picked out 2 last night,Bincombe and Forevermyfriend purely on trainer track form with chases,sometimes the obvious and other times you completely misfire

    gerry 12/07/16 7:51 PM Reply


    • Yep – Hobbs in belting form again!, and record with Rj in handicaps here pretty good from small numbers. Oh but to have taken chance that he may stay/everything else may falter. Anyway, ended the day well enough and before play I would have taken one of them winning!

      Josh Wright 12/07/16 7:58 PM Reply


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