Members Report: 08/07/16 (COMPLETE)

A good enough day for my trainer notes for Newmarket – pointing to winners at 11/4, 7/1 and 3/1. I backed the 7/1 shot – Bin Suroor improving his already decent record in maidens at the meeting. Hannon improved his record with horses under a certain price and Lumiere won for my Johnston micro system – those being 1/4,2 places = 0 after day 1, with a couple of bullets to fire tomorrow. A few placed horses also. The 3.45 was a reminder of why I generally leave 3yo only handicaps, I think both of those tailed in last – clearly those last runs were an indication of form, rather than a blip! Not too much damage done. 

Anyway… 

 

TIPS

None. I will be producing some trends/stats for Bunbury Cup tomorrow – that should be done by 12 and will post link. I will look at that race for the blog. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Other

Varian Females (any odds): 4.00 York – Spangled – UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Hold tight….

Chester (12/1<) 

6.20 – Energia Flavio NR

9.20 – Energia Fox / English Summer / Modernism 

Newmarket (16/1<) 

3.10 – Drifting Spirit – UP

5.20 – Withernsea 3rd 

Newmarket (12/1<) 

4.45 – Bathos DNQ/ Ode to Evening- WON 25/1 (ahhh. previously 0/19,0 places with angle over 12s. Super) / Welford DNQ

5.20 – Enlace DNQ 

York (9/1< ) 

2.55 – Lathom – UP

3.30 – Berlusca DNQ / Flyboy UP

4.30 – Hit The Jackpot DNQ

Chepstow (14/1<) 

6.05 – Honour Promise DNQ / Petrify WON 16/1 – (brilliant – this one on the boundary at least, as per guide was 0/8,1 p above 14/1 before season started,and hadn’t had big priced one this season) / Sweet World DNQ

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. A lot going on above as pointers etc, and I have Newmarket to dive into with notes. And having been through my normal approach nothing jumping out at me at prices. 

 

HANDICAP SPRINT TESTING ZONE 

(Running total: 0/6, 0 places = -12 points) 

I had a look at the HorseRaceBase ratings – their standard set (those on racecards) – 5-6.5f, c3<, 3yo+ / 4yo+ handicaps. Interesting that the top 6 rated for ‘Total ratings’ win 79% of races, the top 6 ‘Last Run ratings’ win 76%  – top 3 for both win 44% races. So, that is some sort of ratings guide for future. 

Will now look at 4.25 Muss, 2.55 York (looks too complex at first glance, esp as all bar 3 horses like to lead/press pace) and 4.40 Ascot i think….

4.25 Muss – No Bet – Royal Brave initially caught my eye but now a non runner – trainer in form, and horse in form – so interesting if comes out soon – no immediate entries. This looks about the fav, and Henley for me – will be interested to see if they finish 1-2 ,either way. Fumbo Jumbo has a lot going for him – rain sodden turf no problem, progressive, won easily LTO, form since franked, well drawn for attacking style,trainer in form- a lot to like. I won’t take 2s but could see why some might. Henley is in form, also has no problems with conditions, is well drawn for prominent style – trainer could be in better form,but horse is in form. Geegeez speed rating good. Maybe that is a 1/2 point win bet with 1/4 saver on fav. Also unexposed but doesn’t look as progressive as fav – only emptied late up Ponte’s stiff finish. We shall see how this one goes but on paper both this pair ‘could’ dominate this race from start to finish. 

4.40 Ascot –

Remember this is a test, I am still finding my feet and it may take some time. I wouldn’t be backing these just yet, certainly not to 1 pt EW anyway, but of course use the info as you please…

Valley of Fire – 9/1 (general) – 1pt EW – UP (7th) 

Rio Ronaldo – 10/1 (SB/WH) 9/1 (gen) – 1pt EW – UP (5th) 

Some positives and some negatives from this day of testing. Leaving a 10/1 winner at York. And at Ascot – well I need to watch again but Rio Ronaldo had to sit and suffer for some time and with a gap would like to think he would have placed, but that is sprinting. The winner was in the ratings shortlist of 8 and evidently I looked at him.As money came I looked again, and had a feeling I may have missed one. Not many starts for Osbourne, had become very well handicapped and was in-form,bouncing back LTO with a decent run- a general, growing theme with these runners, in general. Also, on draw stats,was in a decent place. Hmm. The second was the 25/1 poke who I left, and he very nearly won. Plenty there to ponder on the day – but I think, despite results, that was more a day of progress for the thinking, than regression. 

I will be taking closer note of those in top 6 of the HRB ratings, both Total and Last Run. 4 horses are in the top 6 for both.. nos. 17,5,13,6. The others, either in top 6 total or LR… nos. 18/12/3/11. So, you could use that as a shortlist of 8- and moving forward it will be interesting if this approach helps- especially with these minefields when no trends/stats to help. Of course the winner may come from the 20-25% of runners not in this pile, but having looked at the others, nothing outside of this list caught the eye.

Valley of Fire… returned to form LTO over 7f – and yet to add to his maiden win on good to firm, over 6f. But, this stiff 6, with a decent pace, should suit on paper at least, provided he doesn’t get going too late. He is still unexposed, 1/10,3 places on turf. The trainer is in form, and he is 8/35,13 places at track in handicaps last 730 days. Ground fine and gets first time headgear. It is good to firm, with possible showers, so some caution – but I am going on basis it will be a sound surface come the off. He is good on the HRB ratings also, as above. 

Rio Ronaldo – well he is going the right way and two starts ago on good to firm won a shade cosily under Spencer as he weaved his way through, not getting the clearest of runs. Last time he ran well on ground that may have been soft enough, given his previous win on good to firm. This is a drop back down in class, 3/12,4 places in career to date- there just looks more to come and he ticks plenty of boxes. Trainer 1/7,2 places in last 14 days so they are going ok. 1/11,3 places with his handicap runners here to date, in last 730 days. 

PACE/DRAW – a slight niggle that those drawn in the middle stall (these are 9/12) don’t have the best of record in field sizes this big – either low or high best to be, they may be marooned. But then again they may converge up the middle. Pace looks to be coming from stalls 11,7,6,20,13,2…so generally low to middle – so on that score no excuses. 

Of the rest..well who deserves a mention… Barnet Fair could go well but at single figure odds is a bit short for one so exposed, against a field of generally unexposed/more progressive types. He is in the long list of 8 in the HRB ratings. Mustallib is just a bit too unexposed for my liking, for one at a single figure price, and Hills is a bit hot and cold at the moment. The final one of interest for me – Merhoob – 20s – he was on the shortlist – prominent and in the 4 top rated across ‘total’ and LR HRB ratings. He is in form and unexposed, and it was a place over CD, on good to firm, in May that caught my eye also. I do wonder if he is up to this level though and all wins have been on the AW. Trianer 1/39 at track, 0/13 in handicaps last 730 days. But, the horse likes it here. I will be sick if he goes in – the other two look to have a bit more class/ability to me and on that basis I left him. We shall see if he out-runs these odds at 20s. I should mention Young John – indications are that he wants cut – so if it does rain that would help him. Fahey only 3/47,8 places here in handicaps and was just about happy to leave. 

York…

2.55 – I will leave this – it looks tough – very very competitive. 6 3 year olds, plenty on a potential upward curve and a few who could go in on old form. Add to that there are only 4 horses who don’t like to get on with it in here – on paper there is so much pace it is hard to know how it will work out. 

Using the HRB ratings- 5 are top 6 across the two measures… nos,1,17,12,13,11.. with 14,7,18 top 6 across one of them. So, another shortlist of 8 maybe. Thesme – I would like to see her win – deserves too, but I can’t have 4s. With the ratings, given form and profiles – Celebration and Alpha Delphini WON (both 10s) would be the two I would back if I had to. They look most interesting at the prices to me I think and I will watch with interest how they go. Given they haven’t been ‘tipped’ one will probably bolt up now! But, over time, certainly without trends/stats, I think leaving races that look this hot, with so many young horses, and uncertain pace set up- may be the way forward.

Draw – well there was that meeting here earlier on in season where everything won LOW when it was good to firm – which it is here – those drawn 14+ have struggled in general. So, the two I am watching are well drawn, esp the latter – who could sit off the ferocious pace and pounce late if good enough. 

So, happy to sit and watch with the notepad here, with an eye on two, who knowing me, I will probably end up throwing a muggy £5 at. 

***

Chaplin Bay – one of the horses from my notes (still need to add them to my tracker, will do that this morning!) runs at Chester – he is 4s, which may be ok. Matt had added some brilliant new tools to geegeez on the pace/draw front – for each race, for that distance at that track, we can now see the pace profile – whether those who lead do best, or held up etc. It really is amazing and should, in theory, help lead to some more profits/better analysis. Anyway, unsurprisingly being on the front is the place to be here – so I worry about his hold up style- he may need luck in the run,either up the inside or switching wide. It was a superb run at Ponte – and given his draw the jockey may ride him more prominently – he should – if I could guarantee that he would be in 3rd/4th all the way round I would probably consider 9/2 / 4/1 – but I am unconvinced. If he runs like he did the last day, with luck, he should go close.

***

That is all for today. Good luck with your bets, as always.

Josh 

 

 

 

 

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15 Comments

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  • Aldreth, 4.55 Musselburgh has course form of 122 and there is some 9/2 about now.

    Bogart, 2.55 York, was third in this race last year I think and there is 10/1 about now.

    Martin Colwell 07/07/16 8:40 PM Reply


    • Could be something could be nothing. Michael Bell takes 3 up to Musselburgh but he’s had most success with 2YO’s – record 3W from 5R all different horses. Elementary (2.50) was disappointing first time out and Bell hasn’t taken a 2YO up here since 2006 and his 1 from 14 this year with 2YO’s is not inspiring On the plus side however Donncha is up and looking at how his brother uses him (check out Maidens only for Joseph & Donncha) it’s clear he has a knack of getting the most out of inexperienced horses. Purely on price at 11/2 he’s worth a poke (possibly 1pt win 3 point place).

      Derek 08/07/16 1:04 PM Reply


  • Hi
    For the HRB ratings I think it would be wise to include field size too for these sprints if you are going to be guided by the ratings as for those with 8 runners or less the top 6 will be good 🙂 They are still pretty good though

    Jon 08/07/16 9:02 AM Reply


    • Hi Jon- haha yep i have considerd that, and will have a further look at field-size. That was just a first stab yesterday afternoon – clearly when smaller fields you are going to be left with most of the field anyway, maybe with more emphasis on those near the top. I will have a look at those with 10, 12+ runners. There is a marked drop off from 7th> – interested to see how useful they are as a guide anyway – still must look at all other runners etc. We shall see how it goes!

      Josh Wright 08/07/16 9:11 AM Reply


  • I did some basic work on Tom George chasers last night,although its with the benefit oh hindsight,i took his strike rate of 17% allowed a 2% tolerance,i removed all tracks below 15% strike rate,a turnaround of about 140pts over the 5yrs stats in rp bringing his loss of 60 odd to 80pts profit,from this list i removed anamolies, one good season masking a patchy record,Haydock and Towcester,If past performance is an indicator of future performanc the tracks to concentrate on are-Aintree,Ascot,Ffos Las,Kelso,Kempton,Leicester,Ludlow,Market Rasen,Perth,Southwell and Stratford

    gerry 08/07/16 11:18 AM Reply


    • I’ve got a much less specific system for George and Brennan you might want to look at? These tracks- Aintree Ascot Catterick Cheltenham Exeter Haydock Kempton
      Leicester Ludlow Market Rasen Musselburgh Newcastle Newton Abbot Sandown
      Southwell Stratford Towcester Wincanton Ffos Las.
      Maiden NH Flat Novices Chase Novices Hurdle Handicap Chase Handicap Hurdle
      Handicap Novices Chase. Class 2-6.
      18/1 or less as a guide
      Age 5 to 9. Been following this since October 45+ points this year so far.

      James.b 08/07/16 1:10 PM Reply


  • BUNBURY CUP trends/stats etc… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/bunbury-cup-trendsstatspointers/

    Josh Wright 08/07/16 11:29 AM Reply


  • I hope some of you Newmarket notes users, or anyone who read opening of today’s blog, took notes of Bin Suroors record in maidens at this meeting. 7/1 winners yesterday, 11/1 winner race one today.

    Josh Wright 08/07/16 1:26 PM Reply


  • Newmarket stats working again Josh. 11/1 winner. Thanks very much !

    Andy 08/07/16 2:01 PM Reply


    • Ah someone had him! Good. And I appear to have found 10/1 winner of 2.55 York – of course bottled the theoretical ‘tip’ in the testing zone! Still, a confidence booster. Read that race pretty well.

      Josh Wright 08/07/16 2:03 PM Reply


      • Cheeky £5 on it lovely drift as well. Stats Dnt lie ☺

        daniel 08/07/16 2:07 PM Reply


        • haha – good job…they lie a lot of the time, but the right ones, esp these big meeting ones- get it right enough over time I think- well, looking that way from some evidence this season.

          Josh Wright 08/07/16 2:16 PM Reply


  • Backed Bathos and the other wins,thats Mark Johnston for you,hard to get right

    gerry 08/07/16 5:02 PM Reply


  • Oh darn,petrify wins at 16/1

    gerry 08/07/16 5:10 PM Reply


    • I used stronger language,for both Johnston and Petrify! That has happened a few times recently , nature of the approach – and prefer approach of until they prove bigger ones go in, happy with the caps where numbers support it – price always a guide- Johnston nowhere near boundary, Petrify was. Awful.

      Josh Wright 08/07/16 5:21 PM Reply


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