Members Report: 07/07/16 (COMPLETE)

Below is a link to some ‘Sprint Handicap Zone Notes’. In part these are for my own benefit as I try and improve, but hopefully they provide something of interest for you to read. For each race I have tipped in I reflect on the reasons for the tip, reflections on the race/result, a discussion of the winner – in sense of highlighting positives/why they won – in an attempt to learn for the future, and then ‘race notes’ – watching the video multiple times, looking at how the race panned out etc, looking to see what horses caught the eye and may be worth keeping at eye on moving forward. I haven’t really done something like this before but in theory this kind of reflection should help me improve, esp with race reading… (you are welcome to add relevant horses to trackers – and given my inadequacies in that area sometimes, that may benefit us all!) 

SPRINT HANDICAP NOTES: HERE>>>

 

NEWMARKET NOTES

I thought I would use a couple of angles from my newmarket notes (link below) to have a look at the 3.45. I nearly put both of these in the ‘stats/angles of interest’ section but it is a 3yo only handicap,and both horses were underwhelming LTO -so I suppose I have bottled it. The stats suggest they may both go close…

Light Music 12/1- goes for Haggas here and ignoring my notes for a moment he is 7/32,13 places with handicap debutants at Newmarket (feeling that may be across both tracks though) He is also in-form 7/26,13 places last 14 days. The horse ran at Royal Ascot LTO- such horses turning up here n handicaps with 2/5 career wins to their name are 10/51, 15 places… +46 SP, +68 BFSP. Those running in a handicap here, but a non-handicap at RA are 3/14,5 places..+ 4 (those stats relate to horses sent off 16/1 or shorter at Newmarket – RA runners going off 18/1+ are 0/27,2 places to date, in handicaps). So, on paper, she has a bit going for her. On the negative, Haggas ‘only’ 1/26 here, 6 places, in last 5 seasons. Moore is up which is also a positive and this won’t be as hot as the last race

Strong Challenge 12/1 – trainer in form, he is 2/7,5 places +4 in C2 races here in last 5 meetings. Those of his running at same class or dropping in class from LTO are 4/10,6 places… +13 SP. This one is running at the same class. He was poor LTO and I don’t know why, which is a bit off-putting. But given all of the above a bounce back would not surprise. Both are also on the right side of the track for what pace there is I think. 

(Scrutineer for Channon would qualify on a few RA LTO angles if going off 16/1<) 

If I was at the track I would back both of these EW for interest. As I am not I may have 1/4 point on (£5 for me) just for ‘fun’. 

If you want to get hold of more stats like that, plus the main micro systems, there is the link below…

GET YOUR NOTES/STATS NOW, HERE>>>

(ClickBank will email you a link to the download as part of the receipt. You have 60 days to get your money back – you have nothing to lose – try them out, see if they help, and if you want your money back no problem at all) 

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TIPS 

None.  

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Meehan Maidens (any odds- needs a winner or two!) 

6.30 Newb – Moi Moi Moi – UP

7.00 Newb – Stop The Wages – UP

8.05 Newb – Alaskan Breeze NR

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.30 Carl – Sattelac (15/2<) DNQ

3.00 Carl – Forever A Lady (15/2<) 2nd 4/1>2/1

5.15 Carl – Tectonic (15/2<) DNQ 3rd 25/1 

(KDs overall record with those 8/1+ in handicaps here is poor,1/50 odd,but 13 places or so and he had a 20/1+ very nearly win – so by all means if you use the systems as a guide for further analysis that may be worth bearing in mind) 

7.10 Epsom – Powderhorn (any odds) UP

8.50 Epsom – Plagiarism (any odds) UP

7.30 Newb – Dubais Secret DNQ WON 10/1 / Torch DNQ 3rd 8/1 (another winner above the price guide. Stats before tonight, with those 132-20/1 were 3/43,12 places.. AE 0.85 – in 2014 Hannon was 0/16 with the bigger priced ones but the odd one starting to go in now. Something to track but looking like very much a guide. I will re-evaluate at end of season. He has yet to have an official qualifier yet, but has now had a 10/1 and 20/1 winner in recent meetings.)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today.

Despite the amount of racing nothing really stands out- (I have’t looked at my TTP guide in depth today- so you users may spot something -share away if you do!)  I have plenty to attack with my notes at Newmarket and I will share a couple of angles/one race below in a momement. But I was just put off making them bets in this section.

I also left +18 points on my notepad yesterday – very annoying. The two horses most prominent were Mister Royal for Ellison (10/1>4/1 – won) – way in? … 4/11,7 places at Catt with stable newcomers. No green in form indicators for yard but he’d had a few go well, including 16/1 shot Ponte which stuck in my mind. He also had solid stats with all cappers at track, as per my TTP guide. What put me off? The 300+ day break against a load of race fit horses, and less than inspiring form – but for old connections. View was that if there was money he would be interesting, which there was. I didn’t back him.

The other – Baker/Cosgrave  3/7,5 places when teaming up at Yarmouth. Horse stepping up in trip – looked needed – could come on from last run, first of season/first for yard. Heyman – won. Was 8s when I looked. Am more annoyed about this one than the former. Race looked a bit open to me with a strong fav. Trainer in ok enough form but not green symbols – were they there it may have tipped me over edge. In time, had there been 40+ points in bank say, I may have fired both the bullets but I clearly wasn’t confident enough to back them. 

Still, a good advertisement for GEEGEEZ GOLD – You could give it ago HERE>>> 🙂 (and their stats reports in particular on this occasion) 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

Running total: 0/6, 0 places = -12 points 

Quick reflections on Wednesday…

Horse UP- Always a risk from the box draw that there would be no room but worth the chance I think at the odds- got no daylight at all so a line through that run. One for the tracker as was travelling well when attempting some kind of run a couple of furlongs out,albeit maybe too far out. She will go in again at Bath, over 5f, at some point. Hopefully at a price.  

The winner, 25/1 shot… well I can see why some may have backed it. 0/6,0 places in career, all on AW, but a couple of promising runs. First run on turf, so doing something different, and clearly few miles on the clock. Was first run in 223 days. Headgear off. Trainer in form, a green ’14’ on geegeez, 3/15 last 14 days and he was 6/26,10 places at the track in handicaps in last 730 days. And had G Wood booked and he is a tidy little jockey well worth the claim who has been seen to good effect. Now just to put those pieces of the jigsaw together pre race!! Given all of that 25s would have allowed you to overlook a few things, namely fitness/first turf run. Shame I didn’t. Guilty of seeing 0/6,0 places, 200+ days off and ignoring. Work to do! Will give the video a good watch a few times to see if any other ‘unlucky/poor ridden’ horses. 

NONE today. Quite a few smaller fields and many races with plenty of unexposed types in – that statement s applicable to quite a bit of the racing today, as well as the usual mix of races I don’t like playing in too often. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Good read as usual Josh. I think you might be on to something with Ballymore Castle. Hopefully he will turn up at one of these big Newmarket handicaps on fast ground (good probably ok) on 7f since barring his run this season he seems to have ran ok at the track. If I remember correctly the ground wasn’t quite good that day since it was the Guineas meeting.

    Nick Mazur 06/07/16 2:57 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Not really sure where you are going with this sprint trial albeit early days yet. Finding winners of sprints is fraught with danger and can often be down to pure luck in big fields. I can understand you may want another area of expertise so to speak when there are not many 3m hcap chases, but you could have picked an easier area imo. EG 1m6 – 2m hcaps? Anyway with the systems you put up and the stats/area of interest bets (is this still a trial?) I would have thought there is something for everyone without the addition of these sprints. As you point out Gary Priestly has daily big price tips if people want them and you also have tips of your own and big race whatever you call them picks too. Just a few thoughts, no criticism intended.

    jim 06/07/16 6:52 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim,

      Thanks for your thoughtful comment, as ever appreciated.

      To be frank I don’t know where I am going with them yet- hence this trial and no one should be betting their hard earned money on them just on my say so – clearly. And that has been explained clearly in the intros to the section during first few days. Sprint Handicaps are possibly the hardest race type in which to make a long term profit – certainly the most challenging from an analysis perspective – which is in part why I have chosen them. I am not afraid of a challenge, and I am not afraid to fail- which I may well do. I have done ok since I started this blog in C2 sprint handicaps where there have been historical race trends/stats to help narrow down the field- and I thought I would extend that to day to day racing, attacking them cold so to speak.

      You are not the first to suggest that I should start with a perceived ‘easier’ race type on the flat but I just can’t help myself. Maybe it is foolhardy, but I am confident I will get it right over time.

      Now, I could have kept this work on sprints – the tinkering, the thought development, the trial the error – to myself, away from public view. But, I thought some may appreciated the journey and like reading about why I like something, and the reflections/trying to improve. It may well be that no one really cares – but it is good for me also- when posting something on here it makes me think harder and deeper, which in theory, over time, should lend itself to better results.

      I think I needed a challenge monday-friday during the summer months- and this is it. I like to try and develop my skills and this is an attempt at that. As simple as that. At the same time I hope readers get something from the ‘testing zone’ – but you may be in the majority in not really seeing the point.

      Gary is a super tipster – and deep down I quite like the challenge of seeing – over time (and that may be a few years) of whether I can get to, and maybe even surpass his level. That will be a rather tall order, clearly. But, you have to try,.

      You, and Richard who raised similar points, may well be proved to be correct- at which point I will move onto a different area! Gary relished a sprint handicap and while they are difficult, for some of the reasons you point out, it does mean there can be more value- bigger fields, bigger prices, more long term profit. I mean he has this game nailed with a win strike rate of 1/15 and a win/place SR of 1/4.

      Stats/angles of interest – I changed approach mid may- it had been a bit scatter gun, throwing too much mud and hoping some would stick (which it did) but far from satisfactory. In a sense, to anyone new to the blog , or to any aspect, it is always a trial to start with – to discover whether I am any good in the log term. The results are clear and a running total on profit gives you an indication. Arguably that hasn’t been going long enough for you just to read a horse and back them- but you can gauge from my approach whether you think it may work long term- and again, as with everything on here, you know why I am backing it and you can engage with it accordingly. Many readers use my stuff as a starting point, agree with some, disagree and disregard others. Each to their own.

      Josh

      Josh Wright 06/07/16 9:42 PM Reply


      • Catalinas Diamond is entered again at Bath next Tuesday. As you indicate, again travelled well but no run/room. Gary P and other tipster who put this horse up yesterday, are not frightened of going back to previous tips if they lose, their logic is, it was worth a tip off that mark and as long as it is on that mark, it can win – both have simple mathematical nous that if you tip a horse 6 times and get a 20/1+ win and a place and 4 unplaced, you make a tidy profit. Clearly tracking those horses is a key and I will leave the doubters with one final thought.

        How often have you checked the days racing and seen 4-5 winners at big odds and thought “I backed that last time/few times” (perm your thoughts) and missed it – the secret of the success of the likes of Gary Priestley and Placespotter is their ability to read a race and to wait and be patient, when the horse wins and goes back up above a last winning mark , they then have the patience to leave it alone until it comes back to a range it can win off.

        That kind of inner knowledge and ability to spot comes from years of learning and hours of studying form, time us mere mortals don’t have, hence a good free or a good cheap paid Tipster, who you trust and learn to understand, can and will pay dividends.

        Josh as we all know qualifies on that score on 3 mile Chases, don’t worry Josh, the more you practise the more the Sprints will come to you too, and I for one cant wait, as if the knowledge and flair you undoubtedly have is followed, we will all benefit in the long run

        Ian 07/07/16 8:55 AM Reply


  • backed TECTONIC at 25/1 ew got a lot in his favour likes C/D going is fine and a quick return to racing seems to be what he wants low numbers on soft probably were you want to be thought it was well worth a bet

    antony church 06/07/16 8:15 PM Reply


  • I backed springforth for fahey 2yo nursery statistics,85 points profit over last 5 seasons,could back them blinndly,but i suppose with a little further analysis you could increase that figure,now with 2yo nurserises becoming more frequent one to monitor closely

    gerry 07/07/16 6:21 AM Reply


    • hi gerry- yep I have done just that with him and Hannon for this months Betting Insiders Article and Springforth was a qualifier. Think I found and couple of decent angles there and will keep an eye on. For any HRB users his starter set o data is ripe for digging into! I will send that to DC members in a few weeks. If it goes well this season I will add it in next season I think.

      Josh Wright 07/07/16 7:10 AM Reply


    • Hi Gerry, Josh put up an angle on Fahey 2yr old hcps some time ago with the following rules. Horse must not have run in hcp, not be clear bottom weight, did not win last time out and <16/1. I'm sure he will put us right if I have got anything wrong. I don't recall seeing Springforth come up as a qualifier yesterday unless I missed it and can't think why it wouldn't have qualified. I have had the horse in my tracker following its eye catching first run, but chose to ignore it yesterday, along with 5 other winners from my system portfolio. Sums up my current form and being more cautious (or just stupid)

      Chris Randall 07/07/16 7:43 AM Reply


      • HI Chris- yep that is correct – I improved on it somewhat I think – my system building skills improved a little since then – oh well, I may as well share it, im sure they won’t mind! 🙂 ….

        • Richard Fahey runners in Nursery Handicaps
        • NOT Clear Bottom Weight
        • 3 or more runs in previous 90 days
        • Ran in a maiden/seller/claimer/novice/handicap nursery Last Time Out
        • Any odds

        42/142,72 places… +236 BFSP over last 3 seasons

        With a different approach – not having run in a handicap and did not win LTO become irrelevant, and stats for both within angle above are fine. Prefer the logic of this one I think – in terms of fitness/experience, indicated by 90 run angle. The race type last time out is essentially not a ‘non handicap’ as defined by HRB when using that race type last time out filter.

        I will track them this year – of course you HRB users etc can use as you please.

        Also – if you remember that Amanda Perrett AW angle, ran on Flat LTO -will dig out and share again tomorrow. Thought would track this year also – in last couple of week, had 3 winners and now over +30 points for the year SP. Bugger!

        Josh Wright 07/07/16 7:56 AM Reply


        • Bugger indeed! I had deleted the Amanda Perrett system a few months back when I was having a mass clear out lol

          James.b 07/07/16 11:52 AM Reply


  • My sole selection today SWAMP FOX Leop 9pm if your looking for a recovery, not the best of prices but hopefully a winner.

    Mike Dennis 07/07/16 9:10 AM Reply


  • Ah its hard to keep track of it all with so much racing going on,at the moment im mulling over the coming jumps season,i know its few months off but I was thinking of having a portfolio of trainers (excluding the Top Tier)that you could be fairly confident of returning 10 points per season,when they hit form and at tracks where they perform above best.If you had 10-15 such trainers that would be 100-150 points profit,a sort of aim and shoot irrespective of conditions,competition etc,so far

    1 Tom George-Chaser (Paddy Brennan)
    2 Caroline Bailey Chasers (Harry Skelton
    3 Kerry Lee Chasers ( Jamie Moore)
    4 Malcolm Jefferson-Chasers/NHF
    5 Kenneth Slack-chasers/Hurdlers
    Any suggestions or comments welcome

    gerry 07/07/16 9:54 AM Reply


    • Sam Drake class 1-2 ew class 3-4 win.
      Josh”s Mcpherson angle (add in days win bracket?).
      Fergal O’brien is worth a look if you have time to dig about in hrb? I’ve been following his on a system since last summer albeit a very loose system but it is making a profit. Maybe worth looking into o’brien/brennan when teaming up?

      James.b 07/07/16 12:00 PM Reply


  • Hi guys,haven’t posted here in a while,but i for one like the test zone for the sprint handicaps,really got in to them(and mid distance handicaps)a few years ago and made a handy profit from them over the course of a flat season.pace/going and track contours,along with the stats is where i landed a few nice priced bets as i recall,but with a low win rate.Not sure if it was skill or luck but it worked for me,anyways best of luck with them josh.

    robbie w 07/07/16 12:33 PM Reply


  • Thanks James,will put that in at number 6,yes i think the combo work well together

    gerry 07/07/16 3:51 PM Reply


  • have to put on spreadsheet before i forget them

    gerry 07/07/16 3:53 PM Reply


    • I have done some work on Fegal in handicap chases and will dig it out in time. Got one micro for him, which may need tinkering – looks at unexposed ones I think, those with 0, or very few chase wins. Am sure collectively, come October, we may have a decent winter portfolio with any luck.

      Josh Wright 07/07/16 4:11 PM Reply


  • Maybe call it a jumps trainers success index(JTSI),there is a couple of runners at Leopardstown this evening for the bonus stats,there was a winner on sunday,2 points added to the pot there

    gerry 07/07/16 4:28 PM Reply


  • It’s the middle of summer and we’re all getting excited about the winter season coming haha! I’m certain we should be making some serious cash tho Two I’ve backed tonight in the 6.20 leopards town Fly by for the Lyons Keene team who’ve come back into form after an awful June, and Musical jewel for trainer Edward Lynam who does well at this time of year (according to hrb anyway)

    James.b 07/07/16 4:51 PM Reply


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