Members Report: 06/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

None. (still sticking to 3m+ chases and trends/stats big C2 handicaps for this section,mainly sprints but occasionally others) 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

None. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.40 Yarm – The Ducking Stool (10/1<) 

3.50 Catt – Baby Ballerina (16/1<) 

4.20 Catt – Dominada (16/1<) 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +12 points) 

None today. Plenty of racing, most of it mediocre and I am struggling to find any angles in really. One of my first filters now is recent trainer form and I will continue to place emphasis on that, at least until the bank is to the point where you can be a bit more creative. Patience was rewarded yesterday, and it may just be a case of waiting for the horse to jump of the page, which yesterday’s winner did. 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(running total: 0/5,0 places = -10 points) 

I clearly have a lot of developing to do in this area but we continue. I will be producing some ‘notes’ that I will share – it is important to reflect on tips, and I will look at the characteristics of the winners, re-watch videos and see if any horses worth following for future. That is an area I can improve on with 3m+ chases as well actually. I will also start my stats research on sprint handicaps and see if anything useful crops up. 

For now…

6.30 Bath – Catalinas Diamond – 14/1 – 1 pt EW

The initial ‘way in’ for this one was looking at the handicap marks and this one is now 3lb below her last win, which was here over CD. Indeed on closer inspection her form in CD handicaps is 3/9, 4 places. The thing that really stood out/caught the eye was that run over CD two starts ago. Go and have a watch of the video if you can. Kirby was on board that day and boy did he have to sit and suffer – he basically stopped riding for about 50 meters as the race was hotting up, rode again, and found more trouble, and by the time he had space it was game over. Drawn 1, this hold up horse will need luck but at this moment we have 4 places to aim at. That run suggested she was in form to me and would have been much closer for a clearer run, on my reading of it anyway. The last race – well I will just blame the ground, I think it went soft and she just didn’t pick up in it. The BHA report says this is now Good ground, but she has won on good to soft and good to firm – to, there should be no excuses. There looks to be enough pace on paper and at the prices was the one that stood out when looking through. She is going to pop up again over CD no doubt and this is a rather weak race I think, even for a C6 – plenty in here have questions I think. 

I will keep an eye on that Molly Jones at 50s. For old connections she ticks plenty of boxes for race conditions but returned after 600+ days last time for a new, rookie?, trainer. He hasn’t had many runners and I don’t know if he can actually train. This one may need more races to get sharp also. But, given old form, it will be interesting to see if she can do anything at this track in future.

***

That is all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Matthew Salaman used to train, took over from his dad, Taffy, a long time minor, yet successful, handler. Been out of the game for a few years but would know the time of day. New yard, part of the Taffia, it seems.
    Molly needs quick going?

    Chris 06/07/16 9:22 AM Reply


    • They had a lovely little horse called Pocket Too – won me a fair few quid on going days!

      Ian 06/07/16 10:21 AM Reply


    • Ah good info Chris, cheers. Yep she has been best on good to firm, most wins – but has won on good, which according to BHA it is . Not good to soft and meant to be a dry day, so could dry out further. There may not be much ability retained, but is 50s. Hmmm.

      Josh Wright 06/07/16 10:51 AM Reply


  • Josh – very interesting that you have chosen Catalinas Diamond – also popped in to my email inbox at about 8.30am this morning from my SP2A subscribed tips. Their assessment is similar to yours in terms of handicap mark, Course record,propensity to “pop up” at Bath. They make one additional point which is his record with Steve Drowne and refer to a RP comment from Trainer when Catalinas Diamond last won at Bath ” is an absolute marvel for a low-grade handicapper – she has run for the last 22 calendar months since December 2013 and has now won eight races and been second ten times. I had a go at the handicapper for keeping on putting her up – 4lb for her second here. Steve (Drowne) is worth 5lb on her and he doesn´t panic when she is far back. The key to her is she needs a strongly-run race – Pat Murphy, trainer”

    I have mentioned before that when you and this service concur that the rewards are usually high and they are on fire at the moment – so good luck to you both, I’m on at 16’2 with B365
    :

    Ian 06/07/16 10:21 AM Reply


    • Ah well good to see my sprinting analysis may be developing, slowly anyway! She seems to be on the drift but that may be due to money for a few near the top end. Yep agree with that write up and I notes jockey’s record on her. Without that run two starts ago I wouldn’t have backed her but with a clear run then looked likely to be in the mix I suspect. Interesting trainer comments – and view that certain jockeys worth X amount on a horse – something else I should catapult to front of my thinking. I suspect if we followed here here at this level, over CD, for next 5 runs or so we may come out in profit. Time will tell! GL

      Josh Wright 06/07/16 10:54 AM Reply


      • I do think these low grade sprinters “win in turn” and when you can find comments like that by Trainer about Drowne; that it indicates today, may be a going day. As you rightly point out, if you back 8 times and it wins once at 16/1; you have made a very tidy profit and that’s easy to overlook with these “longer shots”.

        Fingers crossed for you both and of course my bank balance

        Ian 06/07/16 12:34 PM Reply


        • yep, well these sprints are such a game of fine margins and why they are a challenge, and why they ‘win in turn;. It may be a challenge beyond me, but it wont be for the want of trying during remainder of season! I am not betting much on these ones myself just yet.

          Josh Wright 06/07/16 12:46 PM Reply


  • edit 16/1!

    Ian 06/07/16 10:22 AM Reply


  • Some notes on the sprinters tipped to date/races etc… here if you want a read… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sprint-Handicap-Testing-Zone-NOTES.pdf

    Josh Wright 06/07/16 2:00 PM Reply


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