Members Report: 04/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

None. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

none 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

Ayr (16/1<)

2.15 – Sea of Green NR

5.30 – Lady Cordie NR

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(+3 points) 

Nothing catching the eye today really.No bets. 

There were a couple of profile horses that have conditions but I am on the fence… 

Lost Legend is one – C2<,1-11 runners, 20f or so,OR140< – the last time he had these conditions we backed him – well he was mentioned on blog but not tipped- and he won at 8/1 at Bangor. He comes here after a break (has won on seasonal reappearance before), with Jonjo a bit hot and cold, and up against quite a few who you could give chances too. That made me a bit hesitant at his price of 9/2. If he were double that I would probably have a go, as I did last time where he bolted up. Given his record at this level though a big run wouldn’t totally surprise. 

Green Howard – he is also a profile horse that has been in the tracker for some time. Indeed his record over 7f, good-good/soft,C4 or below reads … 1,1,1,1,1,4,1 – on that basis alone he may be worth some support and the trainer is in form. He is to be feared when dropping into C4. I see that Gary has tipped  him and I can see why, and I have missed that 14s, now 8s generally. While this may be a plot/plan, that recent form is a bit off putting for me and I can’t work out the jockey booking. I am unsure whether Tudhope no longer gets on with the yard but he is 5/10,8 places on the horse, and I find it a bit odd that he isn’t on,given he is here. McHugh is 1/27 on their flat handicappers in last 730 days and only 4/61 at the track, trainer 2/45 here. It may well get to 5pm and I will be cursing myself for not just trusting the profile, but we shall see. He has plenty in his favour and is handicapped to go in. 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

Important: I have set myself the challenge of developing some skills/ability in the world of sprint handicaps, without any trends/stats to help as a way in. I enjoy 3m+ handicap chases,mainly in the winter, but it was about time I found an area of focus on the flat. This is a public test I suppose, everything in the open, and my thinking will no doubt develop over time. I wouldn’t bet any of your money on them really – not just on my say so anyway,you may look at race yourself and agree – until I have some kind of proof that I can make a profit. The aim is decent priced EW bets,(8/1+) which at times it will be very bumpy. Your thoughts and constructive criticism along the way is welcome… 

Running total: 0/2,0 places = -4 points 

Nothing really caught my eye at Ayr. Secret City (6/1) and Classy Anne (6/1) looked interesting but not quite big enough to tempt me in. But, I will be interested to see how they go. 

7.35 Windsor – Long Awaited – 33/1 – 1pt EW

UP- a decent, exciting run, before flattening out late on. At one stage he looked like being right in the mix, up until very late on. He is clearly a bit of a monkey but that was promising. But, another unplaced one. He out-ran his odds at least. 

A poke, a stab, a horse that may fall out the back of the tv. But, a few things caught the eye for this horse that doesn’t like winning very often- I am really selling it to you! This is the fourth start for this trainer and he is getting very well handicapped now. His last two runs have been at 6f and while he stayed that trip once in a maiden he has spent most of his career at 5f and I am yet to be convinced he really has the stamina. Now, he could have faded the last twice because he has just lost form at the moment, or 6f (and soft the time before) isn’t really ideal. He comes from a Claimer into this C3 – which is interesting in itself. Maybe not for any positive or negative, but interesting! He also puts back on the jockey who rode him for his last trainer, when claimed. With her claim the horse runs off 75 here. His last win, in 2012 I think, was off 86 in a C2. Last year he placed a few times, beaten under a length in a couple of C3s off 88 and 85. There is a lot of pace in this race, on paper, and in the past has relished a big field cavalry charge. Given he does have some ability, or used to anyway, you would think the trainer will get a win or two from him at some point. The market would suggest that isn’t today but the drop down in trip,the jockey booking,the back-class/handicap mark looked interesting. And, at 33s, I though it would be interesting to see how he goes. 

Go Go Green – runs again today, or as it stands. He is 0/20,2 places in C3+ in his career, 0/17,2 places in handicaps. I can’t have him on that basis but part of me expects him to bolt up! He won’t be carrying any of my money if he does. 

That is all for this ‘test section’. 

My two main areas of research focus this week are on the July Meeting and Sprint Handicaps. I will get digging in all things these race types, C3 down, with a look at general stats, HRB ratings (seeing how top 3 perform etc etc) and of course trainers. I may well add some sprint handicap micros to the test area also – if I find anything. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • The fare at Worcester is the best of todays racing,Tom O Brien has 2 good chances of a winner in the first 2 races.The 2.30 is a 5* bet where he rides No Likey,its a tough call with few in form horses and trainers,has run well at the track without winning.Think 4/1 might drift a bit.In the 2.30 Grand Gigolo is another Trainer that he has good record with,if the fall he took doesen’t wreck its confidence,I will take the chance at 10/1

    gerry 04/07/16 8:05 AM Reply


  • I thought Marmalady should go well back at 5f, 735W, from a good draw.
    My outsider runs in 215A, Sunrise Dance, returns to six, the distance over which it has shown its best, usually at Thirsk, it must be said, and the booking of Kevin Stott, used by Godolphin, looks a plus. Recent form at shorter is OK, and with the going ideal, I hope for a placing for a horse, once rated 77, at this weak level.

    Chris 04/07/16 9:39 AM Reply


  • Josh, Hope you don’t mind me putting this forward, but I feel that concentrating on handicaps over 7 and 8 furlongs would be infinitely more rewarding than sprint handicaps. The latter are more open to draw bias, pace bias, trouble in running problems, and are therefore less predictable just in how the race is going to be run. How many times in the past have I got those factors wrong when assessing a race based on strong logical evidence! Massive field sizes are also more prevalent.

    Seven furlongs can be a bit of a specialist distance as well which can be an advantage if you are getting six furlong horses or milers in the race. I do feel that it should be ‘easier’ in getting a handle on races over these trips and how they will be run. They should also in the main, be truly run which can be an issue once you get to ten furlongs plus. I know it is down to personal preference as well, but to me, I feel more comfortable backing over those trips than in sprint handicaps.

    As an aside, I much prefer Two year old races run over 5 and 6 furlongs (I do not bet in Nurseries) rather than longer distances.

    All the best.

    Richard Sutton 04/07/16 10:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Richard, I never mind such suggestions, well put.

      For my sins I see these races as the hardest challenge, and I want to try and see if I can crack them, long term. They are very complex and as you point out often open to much more luck, split second decisions etc. They can be over before they have begin really, when the stalls open. I want to have a crack at trying, as I would be cheating myself if I didn’t. It is quite apparent that I don’t have a decent approach for the Flat – from a day to day/attacking a race cold perspective. Also, I will always focus on 5-7f big race sprints, C2 with big race trends etc, and developing a through understanding of the sprinting game should help in that endeavour also. On the flip side, all those factors can ensure that there can be more value to be found, esp if spotting/tracking those horses who were ‘unlucky’ for whatever reason. There is a bit to learn but I want to give it a good go.

      You make a valid point though. Come October it may be a case that I have made little progress and that a move up the distances is required! I am not scared to fail, and time will tell!

      Josh Wright 04/07/16 10:45 AM Reply


    • Agree with this. There are some really good 7f & 8f handicaps. The form seems to be more reliable than 5 & 6f.
      The Bunbury Cup at the July meeting has always been one of my favourite races. Backed the last two winners and have started searching for a third. Will be at Newmarket on Saturday to hopefully shout it home.

      John Gorton 04/07/16 10:50 AM Reply


  • Dry Ol´party 5:40 WORCESTER Handicap Hurdle Hobbs/Johnson 9/1
    low class handicape

    Pab 04/07/16 10:37 AM Reply


    • Good luck Pab, yep I hab a brief look at him – certainly their Stats at Worcester indicate he could go well – Hobbs/Johnson here in the summer here dont team up very often but are quite effective when they do.

      Josh Wright 04/07/16 10:46 AM Reply


      • Handicap class F race full of great trainers

        Pab 04/07/16 10:55 AM Reply


    • I have already backed this for a place at around 2/1, and it looks to have a good chance of fighting out the finish here.

      Richard Sutton 04/07/16 12:55 PM Reply


  • Yulong Xiongba
    9:15 RIPON 9/1 is prmising

    Pab 04/07/16 10:54 AM Reply


  • I am out of form at present but judging by some of the comments on here I am not alone.

    I was hoping for some action from the summer jumpers from messrs Moore and Greatrex. However nothing is coming through the pipeline at present!

    My Gay Kelleway connection splutters each way.

    One each way today may run well I understand is Hot Mustard, 8.05 Windsor, 12/1.

    Josh,

    I have dabbled with Bet Alchemist. 3/3 places on Saturday and so off to a good start.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 04/07/16 11:16 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Martin…

      yep I don’t feel in form, but then I dont feel totally out of it either! Problem when you have only focused n 3m+ chases and big sprint handicaps, action can be limited – added to that, given I am not betting loads, given in general the prices played at, losing runs are what they are- but when you are not betting very often they obviously seem longer. I need to up the action levels at this time of year, hence an attempt to try attacking sprint handicaps.

      Yep Nicky is a very good big race/value judge – his long term record has stood the test of time. Had a bumpy time of it last year I think but has been in much better form this year I believe.

      Good Luck,

      Josh Wright 04/07/16 11:20 AM Reply


    • I used to be a regular of Bet Alchemist but he did have a very poor 2015. There may be a logical explanation though as he joined the Bet Advisor website (covers all sports and some horse racing). I noted that his good form ended when he joined there and has picked up since he left them. I am now back on board.

      I also use an equally good service called SP2A, got them off Racing Index and hey presto, same thing happened, they did well, joined Bet Advisor last September, did poorly. They vanished off Bet Advisor about the same time as Nicky and Bet Alchemist, and have not stopped winning since as you will see on the proofing on Racing Index – Bet Alchemist also on Racing Index.

      I did speak to owner of SP2A and he told me that Bet Advisor basically broke every promise and hound you for 5 bets a day and only interested in quantity, I gather Bet Alchemist had the same experience, moral I think is that if the website (like Bet Advisor) costs millions, it probably does and they churn Tipster with no real feel for the subscriber/punters – very soccer and US sport dominated too.

      I don’t bother with the VBP points rating they use on Racing Index, cant fathom it out. If you click on POT profit on turnover it is really return on investment. You can see clear improvement of Bet Alchemist in 2016 and success of SP2A who also have access to the TS stable.

      I think if you want a good honest Tipster with good track record for sensible monthly cost that Bet Alchemist and SP2A probably two of the best out there, along with Northern Monkey Punter, although he is not doing quite as well so far this Flat season as in some previous years.

      Ian 04/07/16 1:56 PM Reply


      • I found nickys Irish tips to be the most profitable.i also noticed he has a good record at the gallway festival.

        Jamie 04/07/16 8:13 PM Reply


        • I always follow his Irish tips and as you say, generally very worthwhile.

          Ian 05/07/16 7:15 AM Reply


    • You’re certainly not alone martin. Although I had a blinder a couple of weeks ago, Royal Ascot and last week were absolute armageddon.

      Let’s watch Josh’s test tip sh*t up tonight though!

      Ali 04/07/16 5:22 PM Reply


      • Ha – I do hope so! I will have the odd 33/1 test tip ‘sh*t’ up in time – we shall see how long we have to wait!! 🙂

        Josh Wright 04/07/16 6:07 PM Reply


  • Seeing as were looking for outsiders….Mine is Tingo in the Tail….4.40 Worcester. Obviously Destinys Gold is the one to beat, but???

    Tony Mc 04/07/16 11:17 AM Reply


    • Can be very good ew bet Destinys Gold will hard to beat

      Pab 04/07/16 11:33 AM Reply


  • Anyone got any thoughts on wrapped in the 8.45 at ripon tonight cheers chaps

    Tomo 04/07/16 12:46 PM Reply


    • race hard to predict wrapped in looks best course but not so much

      Pab 04/07/16 2:43 PM Reply


  • I had a small bet at 7/1 on the Karl Burke 2yo seduce me 6.45 ripon just to keep an interest on the flat season,He is doing well with the youngsters

    gerry 04/07/16 1:28 PM Reply


  • Love to see Long Awaited win for you Josh, I doubt there is a horse more appropriately named, should have won a lot more with its ability and you just know that one day it will drop in somewhere and just as likely as when its 33/1 as 5/1.

    Good Luck, I have had a small dabble and also like Lucky Beggar in that race.

    Ian 04/07/16 2:31 PM Reply


  • There is work with sprint,look at horse what was placed or had good run with bad draw position
    can improve with better draw

    Pab 04/07/16 4:26 PM Reply


  • Well the 6.45 at ripon was very interesting.The fav and eventual winner were owned by same people.Local artist drifted and seduce me was backed during the day and up to race time,winner absoluted routed them,id say that was a owner punt.wonder was local artist in as a diversion

    gerry 04/07/16 5:53 PM Reply


    • Good stuff again Gerry, two in two days! On fire – well, relatively to some of us in any case 🙂

      Josh Wright 04/07/16 6:09 PM Reply


  • oh i had a terrible june Josh like all the readers id say,so i took a break for a few weeks to clear the head.The bank i had set aside for the flat was quickly disolving so i was about to shelve it until the jumps proper,anyway i decided to go back to basics with a clear head and doing what got me ahead before, you begin to doubt yourself and then a few good days gives you that confidence back

    gerry 04/07/16 6:37 PM Reply


  • Great run from Long Awaited managed to back and get layed in running on win, 3 places and 4 places on betfair got 5/1 4places Nice pick Josh

    mozzer 04/07/16 6:53 PM Reply


  • Also followed Gary in on Bashiba what a tipster he is

    mozzer 04/07/16 6:56 PM Reply


    • Yep I followed him in on that one also – only one of his I backed today I think- when looking at it that jockey booking did slap you in the face actually, as well as his recent consistency. A decent run from Long Awaited- looked very promising at one stage! Maybe is drawn to left of winner may have places- unsure of track bias but I wont complain – got the heart pumping for a minute or two for my £5EW (I had to have something on!)

      Josh Wright 04/07/16 7:03 PM Reply


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