TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.15 – Sea of Green NR
5.30 – Lady Cordie NR
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catching the eye today really.No bets.
There were a couple of profile horses that have conditions but I am on the fence…
Lost Legend is one – C2<,1-11 runners, 20f or so,OR140< – the last time he had these conditions we backed him – well he was mentioned on blog but not tipped- and he won at 8/1 at Bangor. He comes here after a break (has won on seasonal reappearance before), with Jonjo a bit hot and cold, and up against quite a few who you could give chances too. That made me a bit hesitant at his price of 9/2. If he were double that I would probably have a go, as I did last time where he bolted up. Given his record at this level though a big run wouldn’t totally surprise.
Green Howard – he is also a profile horse that has been in the tracker for some time. Indeed his record over 7f, good-good/soft,C4 or below reads … 1,1,1,1,1,4,1 – on that basis alone he may be worth some support and the trainer is in form. He is to be feared when dropping into C4. I see that Gary has tipped him and I can see why, and I have missed that 14s, now 8s generally. While this may be a plot/plan, that recent form is a bit off putting for me and I can’t work out the jockey booking. I am unsure whether Tudhope no longer gets on with the yard but he is 5/10,8 places on the horse, and I find it a bit odd that he isn’t on,given he is here. McHugh is 1/27 on their flat handicappers in last 730 days and only 4/61 at the track, trainer 2/45 here. It may well get to 5pm and I will be cursing myself for not just trusting the profile, but we shall see. He has plenty in his favour and is handicapped to go in.
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Important: I have set myself the challenge of developing some skills/ability in the world of sprint handicaps, without any trends/stats to help as a way in. I enjoy 3m+ handicap chases,mainly in the winter, but it was about time I found an area of focus on the flat. This is a public test I suppose, everything in the open, and my thinking will no doubt develop over time. I wouldn’t bet any of your money on them really – not just on my say so anyway,you may look at race yourself and agree – until I have some kind of proof that I can make a profit. The aim is decent priced EW bets,(8/1+) which at times it will be very bumpy. Your thoughts and constructive criticism along the way is welcome…
Running total: 0/2,0 places = -4 points
Nothing really caught my eye at Ayr. Secret City (6/1) and Classy Anne (6/1) looked interesting but not quite big enough to tempt me in. But, I will be interested to see how they go.
7.35 Windsor – Long Awaited – 33/1 – 1pt EW
UP- a decent, exciting run, before flattening out late on. At one stage he looked like being right in the mix, up until very late on. He is clearly a bit of a monkey but that was promising. But, another unplaced one. He out-ran his odds at least.
A poke, a stab, a horse that may fall out the back of the tv. But, a few things caught the eye for this horse that doesn’t like winning very often- I am really selling it to you! This is the fourth start for this trainer and he is getting very well handicapped now. His last two runs have been at 6f and while he stayed that trip once in a maiden he has spent most of his career at 5f and I am yet to be convinced he really has the stamina. Now, he could have faded the last twice because he has just lost form at the moment, or 6f (and soft the time before) isn’t really ideal. He comes from a Claimer into this C3 – which is interesting in itself. Maybe not for any positive or negative, but interesting! He also puts back on the jockey who rode him for his last trainer, when claimed. With her claim the horse runs off 75 here. His last win, in 2012 I think, was off 86 in a C2. Last year he placed a few times, beaten under a length in a couple of C3s off 88 and 85. There is a lot of pace in this race, on paper, and in the past has relished a big field cavalry charge. Given he does have some ability, or used to anyway, you would think the trainer will get a win or two from him at some point. The market would suggest that isn’t today but the drop down in trip,the jockey booking,the back-class/handicap mark looked interesting. And, at 33s, I though it would be interesting to see how he goes.
Go Go Green – runs again today, or as it stands. He is 0/20,2 places in C3+ in his career, 0/17,2 places in handicaps. I can’t have him on that basis but part of me expects him to bolt up! He won’t be carrying any of my money if he does.
That is all for this ‘test section’.
My two main areas of research focus this week are on the July Meeting and Sprint Handicaps. I will get digging in all things these race types, C3 down, with a look at general stats, HRB ratings (seeing how top 3 perform etc etc) and of course trainers. I may well add some sprint handicap micros to the test area also – if I find anything.