Today I will be writing my monthly article for the Betting Insiders Club – with a look at nurseries I think. I need to see if there are any July Trainers we want to keep onside and I want to have a good ‘stats look’ at C3/4 and 5/6 sprint handicaps, with the aim of being a bit more active in those races in the remaining 4 months of the flat season.
3.00 Hayd – Twentysynthlancers (18/1<) UP
3.30 Hayd – Chaplin Bay (any odds) 2nd 6/1
3.10 Perth – Ronaldinho (12/1<) 2nd
4.40 Perth – Gold Chain (12/1<) * WON 11/4
*apologies as I appeared to miss posting Gold Chain as an ‘under review’ qualifier on Wednesday, who won at 9/1. If you were still backing the two ‘under review’ trainers (Sayer/Suzi Smith) you have permission to grumble. Sayer was 1/21,6 places… -15 SP before that winner, following on from 3/26, -16 points last year – hence being ‘under review’. Maybe some green shoots may be on their way, or a new approach needs to be found for her runners,if there is one.
Pam Sly Females: 4.20 Yarm – Roxie Lot (any odds) UP 33/1>20/1
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
A reminder: These are the ‘main trainer’ systems from my Trainer Track Profile: Flat stats pack launched at the start of the season. These were researched this year and in essence this section is a live test. Albeit, all systems posted are always under review etc. What you do with them is up to you. There progress is tracked in the regular results updates.
6.10 Epsom – Brandon Castle (any odds) 2nd
7.30 Newb – Skeaping (6/1<) DNQ
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
8.50 Epsom – Aqua Ardens – 16/1 – UP- a profile horse with a more tentative profile than most. Having racked up a hat-trick some time ago he had a few quiet runs in C2/3 races before dropping into C4 and winning at 14/1, off a mark of 84 (same as today). Having run in a few C2s/3s recently, he drops into C4 here. He is 3/3 at the track. 2/2 in CD handicaps. He is also versatile in regards to going. His last win also came off the back of some uninspiring runs. They are the positives. The negatives – well Baker could be in better form and in the last 730 days he is now only 3/39,10 places when Steve Drowne has ridden for him in handicaps. There are also plenty of in form 3 and 4 year olds in here. At 16s I will have a nibble to find out. It may be this is a false profile but C4 definitely looks to be his level. (3/10,5 places C4, 0/6,0 places C3 flat handicaps)
4.20 Yarmouth – Hes My Boy – 8/1 (BV/WH) UP – 8/1 seems a bit big for this one on paper. Firstly my TTP guide shows that Fanshawe, before this season started, was 4/10,4 places with his handicappers running in 3yo+ handicaps here, for +14 points SP, 64% above market expectations – albeit small sample of course. That was the ‘way in’. The trainer is also in form – green 14s and 30s in Geegeez racecard – 4/18 last 14 days, 8/32 last 30 days. So, that box is ticked. Then there is the horse. Well, he seems to be in very good form and it is the strength of his form that caught the eye. The win two starts ago has produced a few winners. Indeed the 2nd and 3rd have since come out and won, and the 5th has won 3 times since. The horse that just beat him the last day has also come out and won since. I am looking for a repeat of either of those runs I think as that will put him right in the mix. All of the horses wins have been when good to firm is in the description and according to the BHA website, updated in the early hours by the clerk, it is Good to Firm, good in places with a dry day expected. When accounting for claims he is only 2lbs above a win last year and this is only his 17th flat start so I won’t use the mark as an excuse. There are a few 3 year olds in here and he could bump into one with a bit up his sleeve – namely the fav who hasn’t been missed in the market after his last run which suggested this trip could be just what he wants. But, he needs to get his head in front and the selection has been there and done it. At 8s, I thought he looked interesting.