Members Report: 28/06/16 (complete)

Good morning everyone. I hope you have had a good few days. I have been in a muddy bubble since Tuesday and haven’t looked at any racing. I will go back through all the systems etc and record the results (as well as have a look at what else has been going on) – I hope there were a few winners in there. Just the systems again today – back to ‘normality’ from tomorrow…

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers 

6.50 Strat – Lakeshore Lady (14/1<) UP

7.50 Strat- Walden Prince (14/1<) Fell

June Trainers

2.30 Ham – Intensified (any odds) 2nd 20/1

5.00 Ham – Fuel Injection (18/1<) UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.45 Bright – Megalala (7/1<)  DNQ

4.00 Ham – Dark Defender (any odds) UP

4.45 Bright- Byrd In Hand (7/1<) NR

5.00 Ham- Lady Wootton UP / Little Belter (both any odds) UP

5.15 Bright – Boutan (any odds) UP

8.10 Chep – Arty Campbell (14/1<) NR

8.40 Chep – Honour Promise UP/ Petrify NR (both 14/1<) 

 

NOTE: I did notice that Ruth Carr had a couple of winners yesterday – I have just been back into the June system and before yesterday’s results, those running at the same distance as LTO,(which we exclude) according to HorseRaceBase – were 3/35,14 places… – 13 points. She was 2/4 yesterday and is probably on around 0 for that angle so far. Maybe she is hitting a run of form and all of hers may be worth a second glance in the remaining days of the month. 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

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  • Welcome back josh
    I’d like to know what you think of the running of popeswood yesterday 7.25 windsor. Hodges was trying him at 1 1/2 furlongs further than he has ever gone before.He Fell out of the gates, then crouchy rushed him up to take closer order,,faded tamely last 2f. In my experience of watching horse racing this way of riding gave the horse Absolutely no chance of getting home.How much more weight does the trainer think he needs off his back.Down to a winning mark,jockeys claim 5lb.I took a chance at 16/1 hoping for some extra from the distance,but after 2 furlongs i was on that lay button quicker than cameron’s resignation after brexit. Any Thoughts?

    mozzer 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Mozzer…
      I have just had a look at him/watched the race. Trying to second guess what they are trying to do with this ‘profile horse’ is interesting/maybe impossible. It could be simply that he wants to get the mark down further and/or the owners are just plotting him up for a gamble.

      In terms of how he was ridden – despite his experience he is still keen in places – and maybe that is what has held him back to date. Tentative – but on only his 5th start for this trainer (who still may be trying to learn about the horse,through running him- he also does look out of form,albeit again context of whether deliberately getting mark down) maybe he is trying to get him to settle, by going a slower pace over an extended trip- rather than being lit up over shorter. The ride- well I think that may just have been about track position – suspect jockey may not have wanted to be out the back and/or wide approaching that first bend. Looks like he wanted a prominent inside position and was ridden as such. I wouldn’t say he was rushed up as such – well initially but was soon settled in a rhythm to my eyes and wasnt ridden for very long. He did then look to settle better after first couple of furlongs.

      He did travel well and you would conclude that he simply didn’t stay. I don’t think the way he was ridden affected how he got home- I wouldn’t say he was given no chance to my eyes – he was steadied behind the leaders in the end and seemed to be going a pace jockey was happy with. There wasn’t anything there at the 3/2f pole and he just went backwards. You would think they know that 7f is his best trip and maybe they want to ensure he has plenty in hand- stack up some entries and try and rattle off a quickfire double/treble in space of a few days.

      Finally – the market can be instructive with Hodge runners. I have just had a look in HRB with all his flat handicap runners – those priced 14/1-40/1 are 11/495,70 places… -288… they are pretty hard to find!! (as they are with most trainers I suppose) Whereas you can make a profit by blindly backing all his that go off 6/1 or shorter. So, I think money may be significant for this one and an indication when ‘today is the day’. I think we may all be getting excited next time he drops to 7f – knowing my luck he will probably win over 1m4f! For old connections he did seem to come into his own from August onwards as well…now 0/12,0 places before start August in flat handicaps…3/13,7 places Aug- Oct. Now, that may be ground related/how he was trained or the horse simply perks up at that time – or just random.

      This trainer will find the key at some point and he is looking well enough treated now. Maybe Hodge is from the school of running them into form while getting the mark down if that makes sense.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • The reply was very much appreciated.I’ll makes some notes in my tracker for that one.

    mozzer 7 months ago Reply


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