Members Report: 13/06/16 (COMPLETE)

IMPORTANT: Royal Ascot 

Well, I say important…but just to note what will be happening on here re Royal Ascot- and the short answer is very little. Unless mistaken I believe The Wokingham Stakes on Saturday is the only all age ‘Sprint’ (5-7f) Handicap of the week – so, that will get the full trends and tipping treatment (albeit I am at a friend’s wedding all day Friday but I don’ think it will be a late late one so we should be fine! Hopefully I can get plenty done on Thursday- trends likely to be up on Tuesday) 

Given I don’t bet in most of the race types that take place there this week, and given my form, it is unwise to start attacking these races from scratch – it wouldn’t end well. I am quite adept at knowing what I have been good at long term and there are much finer judges than I to take you through that week,race by race,who have decent historical records.

In part that is why I have changed approach this year and am looking forward to testing out my stats/micro system research. Bar the Wokingham, they will be my main guide for the week and we shall see if the 5 main systems can repeat their yearly average of +54 points BFSP. I think I would take that now!! 🙂

The weather also looks likely to dampen all out enthusiasm with all kinds of rain forecast at various points, and they have already received plenty. So, we shall see how that pans out. Very disappointing and it could ruin the week. 

My Royal Ascot focus, bar the Wokingham, will be on Donations Club Members where I will be emailing out the micro system qualifiers every day and possibly some other notes/stats that catch the eye also. So, there won’t be any daily RA stats/qualifiers etc posted on these pages. (unless qualifiers from the usual systems/TTP)

Having just said that, I am about to compile a ‘Trainer Track Profile’ for Royal Ascot (these stats were left out of the main guide) and will post that up here ASAP – in the next couple of hours. I don’t know how useful it will be and it won’t be as informative as my stats pack, but there may be something of interest- we shall see.

Everything else will remain the same and I will cast my eye around other cards for ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ content – which after a bright start could do with finding another winner or 10. 

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FREE TRAINER TRACK PROFILE: ROYAL ASCOT 2016 HERE>>>

 

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TIPS

None.  

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers

3.30 Carl: Whipphound (any odds) UP

4.00 Carl: Annigoni (any odds) UP

4.15 Thirsk: Mr Orange (18/1<) NR

5.00 Carl: Ellaal (any odds) UP

5.45 Thirsk: Mr Mischief (18/<) Meeting Abandoned 

8.40 Nott: Adventure Man (any odds) 

 

TTP : MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.00 Carl: Salvatore Fury (15/2<) NR

3.45 Thirsk: Arrowtown (28/1<) Meeting Abandoned

5.30 Carl: Sattelac (15/2<) UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

7.50 Popeswood – 16/1 – A profile horse gets his conditions here (or what were his conditions for his last connections) but is one where some further consideration may be needed and his profile is very much a guide… his conditions…C4 or below / OR 80 or below / Soft in going description… 2,1,1,2,6,8,1… There looks to be more rain around and the ground may be ideal come the race- already some good to soft patches. The trip is a question – all wins at 7f – but he has placed over CD, coming a shoulder SHORT HEAD second in a nursery. (Short Head in HRB as ‘SH’, in Racing Post it is ‘Shd’ for the avoidance of any confusion- mainly on my part!) His ‘ideal conditions’ were also for his last trainer and there is always some caution when they move. You couldn’t say he is in form – that Chepstow run a bit underwhelming – unless they were trying to get his mark down- which, they may still be trying to do. His highest winning mark is OR77, he has come a shoulder second off OR78, and runs off 79 here – 1/2lbs isnt a reason not to bet. So, there are some ifs, buts and maybes. He may also peak later in the year. But, he is 16/1 and I will have a play to find out. IF he is going to do anything for new connections it looks likely to be in these conditions, at some point. 

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Nope, nothing else catching my eye. That will do for today. Post Complete. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Popeswood, Class 4 or below, OR 80 or below &( windsor 19.50) Soft in going (Good to Soft in places) Pref 7f, 1m tomorrow.
    Flat Horse Profile.16/1 is it a bet???????.

    Mike Dennis 12/06/16 6:44 PM Reply


  • Josh

    Did you miss one

    Exotic Guest LTO 6f now running Car 5f???? R Carr

    Mike Dennis 12/06/16 6:56 PM Reply


    • Its 5f 193yds. More 6f.

      John Gorton 13/06/16 4:43 AM Reply


    • Yep not flagged in my system, HRB has it down as the same distance, but you never know! She will have a winner at same distance at some point no doubt… (plenty of losers so far this month)

      Josh Wright 13/06/16 8:09 AM Reply


  • Jet Setting, Duveena, . . . . Mayfair Lady clocked a massive time at York on Friday & then a significant non-runner on Saturday, well tipped up, Show Stealer, had the beating of York’s weight carrying fast-timer on Saturday last time out at Newmarket – this is one serious quality bunch of 3yo fillies?

    Andy Silvers 12/06/16 8:27 PM Reply


  • Racing pretty poor tomorrow,might be day to do some Ascot study

    gerry 12/06/16 8:47 PM Reply


    • Tend to agree but had a little tickle on cdg, trainer & jockey stats all good, 33/1 Judicious 4.00 Carlisle

      Andy Silvers 12/06/16 9:30 PM Reply


  • time to recoup losses on links drive lady tonight 7.20 windsor, everything looks right for a big run??

    GB 13/06/16 7:28 AM Reply


  • POPESWOOD
    ‘ but he has placed over CD, coming a shoulder second in a nursery.’
    Josh what is a shoulder ?

    John Gorton 13/06/16 7:44 AM Reply


    • Not very far! Just further than a neck I think, (is it nose/short head/head/neck/shoulder then into lengths etc) less than 1/2 a length. It was a small field but he was held up and indications are that stamina wasnt the problem given the way it looks like he stayed on.

      Josh Wright 13/06/16 8:08 AM Reply


  • ‘shd’ is a short head.

    John Gorton 13/06/16 8:13 AM Reply


    • Ah yes- I have had to get reading – I thought ‘Shd’ was short head, as you say – horse race base use ‘SH’ (which looks to be the ‘european abbreviation)- as they have done for Popewood and I have clearly assumed, incorrectly, that this was something different from ‘Shd’ ! Looks like for HRB, ‘SH’, rather than ‘Shd’ is their abbreviation for Short Head. Racing Post use ‘Shd’ – Think I am there now, thanks for pointing that out. That may explain why I’ve never seen ‘Shd’ in HRB!

      Josh Wright 13/06/16 8:25 AM Reply


  • Josh, I rarely disagree with your logic and comments, today, I could not disagree more strongly, but I’m sure we will still be friends LOL..

    When you say rain could ruin the week, I would say the opposite, it could make it.

    No doubts about watering and the impact of that, no doubt about changing conditions, starting firm and getting softer as the week goes on or vice versa. If the weather forecast is right, each day it will be soft or softer with a bit of “Good”; if the rain does not amount to much.

    I would argue that the scenario we have makes it easier to sort the wheat from the relative chaff, makes it easier to sort soft ground form and may even mean we have a pretty reliable raw bias all week (if we can be patient on day 1/2 to see how it works out).

    I think in these extended festivals you always need an angle to have best opportunity and soft ground and rain gives us a real angle to exploit.

    Ian 13/06/16 9:30 AM Reply


    • Yep, I agree with the general point you are making – I suppose my concern would come from any change during the day – ground could go from good to soft in the morning say, and by the first race, or a latter race be soft/heavy. There were thunder storms predicted but I have’t checked the latest forecast. There is also the non runner issue and how this may affect the draw/pace of a race etc etc

      IF the rain could get on with it and it be soft from the start, then that could make it easier. I did say ‘could’ 🙂 It may well make the week, that is true.

      It is also a time for the breeding experts to come into their own one suspects – given that a lot of these races are for lightly raced horses, some of whom may not have raced on such a soft surface – adding some guesswork, or, based on breeding/what we know, a new level of certainty!

      Clearly the more exposed horses there are in a race the better it may be with soft, for analysis purposes – I don’t need convincing as to the merits of mud – my best form in the winter months appears to be when the mud is knee deep!

      So, we shall see- But it could be quite hard to look too far ahead and dangerous to make assumptions 1 day or even 2 days before. Or even the morning before depending on the day’s forecast.

      Agree about it being an angle to exploit etc – let’s just hope that the ground is settled either way for a long enough period (last 3 days maybe)

      Josh Wright 13/06/16 9:48 AM Reply


      • I am about 40 minutes from Ascot and its been on and off absolutely pissing it down (just got fairly soaked on a 3 minute walk back to work whilst carrying an umbrella) so the rain is definitely “getting on with it”. Wouldn’t touch anything tomorrow which hasn’t shown an ability to handle soft ground.

        Nick Mazur 13/06/16 2:10 PM Reply


  • Josh.with regards to the fee gees offer.after 8 days are you then commuted to a monthly subscription or can you cancel if your not convinced

    Lee 13/06/16 10:41 AM Reply


    • Hi Lee – of course you can cancel anytime – it is set up so you will pay automatically, monthly- after the trial period – but of course you can cancel. And, if you forget and are charged for one month and you didn’t want to, Matt/geegeez will refund you – Matt is the ‘always give a refund when asked’ king- regardless of reason etc. That is the first thing I ever learnt from him I think. Nothing to worry about on that front.

      Josh Wright 13/06/16 11:01 AM Reply


  • Cheers.

    Lee 13/06/16 11:56 AM Reply


  • Very interesting money alert! (I work for a credit bookmaker, by the way)

    5.30 Crl – Young Tom 8/1 best price

    Owner has had ten times has usual punting stake on this e/w. Said owner has had quite good success with big bets on his own horses having backed Cloudy Too in the Peter Marsh and also Friendly Royal on Hcp chase debut win

    Anyway, Young Tom is on his Hcp decut after a long lay-off, so all in all, this is very interesting money. Downside is M Appleby’s poor Hcp debut record (1/25 in the last year)

    Ali 13/06/16 12:04 PM Reply


    • Cheers Ali, didn’t see in time to get the price, so just gone a tenner win at 13/2 (bound to be a NR with there only being the dead eight)
      Paul

      Paul 13/06/16 2:20 PM Reply


      • Lol…good shout, mate

        Paul 13/06/16 4:52 PM Reply


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