Members Report: 12/06/16 (complete +late update)

Well Richard Fahey has ensured it wasn’t another Saturday bloodbath and as I write there are still a couple to go and try and eek out a profit.  Another 4 seconds, all fairly close, to add to the mild frustration. Thesme ran a fine race and I am knocking on the door in those sprints. The other missed the kick, rearing as the stalls opened. Game over. I wont read anything into pre race comments from the WH spokesman that he was the one horse the bookies wanted to get beat 🙂 I don’t dedicate any time in my brain to thinking aspects of the game are bent- as while that may be the case sometimes, there isn’t much I can do about it doesn’t stop us making long term profits. I don’t think there was anything there this time- and I’m not sure a jockey can make a horse rear- he was getting worked up prerace.

 Hoofalong – well he was on the stats shortlist of 7 – always positives and negatives when that happens, but the trends profiling did the trick – 7 shortlisted including the 1st, 2nd and 4th. Maybe I should have just stuck with Easterby’s record in 4yo+ C2 sprint handicaps in the last 3 seasons as detailed in my report – 3/12, +26 points. (those 31+ days off were 0/17, places) But boy has that horse improved on the all-weather – I have to remind myself of what Robert Cowell once said- that some of these sprinters don’t peak until they are 6/7. This appears the case with him. His last run on the flat turf was a defeat in a C4, off OR75. But, if you cast your eye far enough back he did have a second in a C2 at York in his younger days. He got the gaps when needed and received a fine ride – a shame he didn’t find traffic for my punting purposes! I didn’t think he had a win like that in him, esp from that mark on the turf – it was fairly easy in the end. Beware the 6 year old sprinters who may be coming into their own. That has to be his best performance of his life to date. 

***

Just the systems on Sunday…

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

June Trainer 

3.30 Donc: Gamesome NR/ Related (18/1<) NR

Other

Meehan Maidens (any odds) (0/10,3 places so far this season,he is due some winners)

3.15 Salis – Malmoosa -NR

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

None 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.45 Salis: Ladweb – as Mike rightly points out below (cheers!) this profile horse gets his conditions again here. Class 4 or below/OR80 or below/5-5.5f… 1,4,5,2,1,1,1,6,2,,4,1,1 – Now this ones winning for this season may be done with and the highest mark he has won from, when taking account of claims, is OR74. In effect he runs of Or75 here and that win off 74 was a fairly comfortable one – he has come close seconds of marks in the 80s also. It could be that he was simply outclassed LTO – his profile suggests that he has a ceiling. All race conditions look fine and this is his first run at the track. There is a lightly raced progressive Hills horse to contend with. But, at 8/1 or 9/1 he may be worth a play. He will win in these conditions again at some point. (UP – close enough third to suggest the horse was still in form – but from that mark may either need more of a claim, or to be running into other exposed types- trainer may find such a race though. Maybe he didn’t let himself down on the groudn fully – looked like he may get there at one stage) 

3.30 Donny – I should also mention HOOF IT for the same Muss connections as today’s big sprint winner. He was an eye-catcher at York two starts ago when backed, where he arguably ran on the wrong part of the track, but ran a cracker. There was a clear bias that day, and again on Saturday it would appear. He drops in class here which could be significant. He is worth a second glance at around 8/1. His last run, over 7f, can be ignored I think. UP – the rain has somewhat put paid to his chance I think – good to soft may have been ok – was good to firm officially this morning!- but that looked like soft, taking his record on ground with juice in to 0/12, 3 places – Very odd ride on the second – has front run over 7f and faded, held up here and flashes late- strange why they didn’t try and have him up there, asking a lot in ground like that from out the back

Right, that is complete this time! 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • LADWEB 2.45 Salisbury. Flat Horse Profile. Conditions look perfect

    Mike Dennis 11/06/16 6:53 PM Reply


    • cheers Mike, so he is!

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 7:58 PM Reply


    • I’d be worried about the fast going.

      Chris 11/06/16 8:16 PM Reply


      • yep, that may be a concern. Apparently he has won ‘officially’ on good to firm, but his profile in general suggests cut is ideal. That may temper all out enthusiasm. Also a win on good.

        Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:27 PM Reply


        • I’m thinking the ground may well ease anyway.

          Matt 12/06/16 7:48 AM Reply


        • If you look at the filters on GG Gold, Ladweb is 0 from 4 on today’s going. And he was well panned in all 4 races.
          Not one for me but good look to all who back him.

          Mike 12/06/16 8:58 AM Reply


          • Luck I mean.
            Not have a good look!

            Mike 12/06/16 8:59 AM Reply


          • If the favoruite flops (whch is possible if the hood doesn;t work a second time), then it is a very winnable race.

            I do have big doubts about Ladweb onn quickish ground though.
            The top one might have interested me. Goes well on quik ground at the distance, and looks very fesibly handicapped indeed.
            However, he hasn;t won on tuf for ages and has a very poor record when fresh.

            Matt 12/06/16 10:52 AM Reply


  • 2.45 Salis – my 80% Layman puts up Ladweb (might just mean he forecast fav with Betfair?) – the cdg horse Desert Command, won race last year off 81 today 74 different trainer now though & Eric Winner (gave Goadby 14/1 winner other day) gives Magical Daze. Desert Command also 6lb clear top on rpr from Weekender.

    Andy Silvers 12/06/16 7:35 AM Reply


    • Marc Monaghan is 0/14 I believe for the yard too, I believe.

      Robert Cowell in pretty poor form according to the Racing Post too. 15% f horses running to form at the moment – which is dire.

      Matt 12/06/16 10:54 AM Reply


  • Richard Hannon has a couple of interesting runners at salisbury 4.20 Zebby Sizz,Sean Lvey is 7/15 on 2yo at salisbury and one against the favs Burnt Sugar in 3.45

    gerry 12/06/16 8:59 AM Reply


  • gone for spring fling in the 3.30 donc ran well in listed event at this course last year drawn near the pace should run well POPESWOOD at Windsor tomorrow from horse profiles way the weather is should get the soft ground highlighted everything else is in place as well

    antony church 12/06/16 10:36 AM Reply


  • Can anyone help? Thinking of doing some enhanced trebles on the Euros with a view to trading out. Does anyone know if this flags up with the bookies as a potential account blocker or do the bookies see this as a mugs bet? Thanks

    Ben Watson 12/06/16 11:04 AM Reply


  • Re Hoof It……3.30 Don.
    I agree with your summation Josh….but no winner from stall 16. Although the withdrawals may just alleviate that a bit.
    I have gone for it though on a reduced stake…..to many 2nd’s and 3rd’s still.

    Tony Mc 12/06/16 11:27 AM Reply


    • yep the number of places is starting to irk me, but it is better than then all dropping out the back of the tv and hopefully our luck will change soon.

      Yep must admit when I looked at race in a bit more depth – but not much more – i did look at the pace and that was all away from him. But, the number of runners may now make that irrelevant. I will have a small play to see!

      Josh Wright 12/06/16 11:56 AM Reply


      • There doesn;t look much pace in the race.

        George Cinq can lead (stall 7)
        Fendale ocasionally leads (stall 13)
        Spring Fling won from the front at Windsor last season, (stall 11 today).

        I don;t really understand why, with all the non-runners, Bogart is a bigger price now than hs forecast SP on the Racing Post website. Has the second-best backclass in the race(behind Hoof It), and ran really well last time.
        He’s also well handicapped and has run very well here twice before (including at 6 furlongs on g/soft ground in Oct 2014 (in a class 2 handicap, off a 6lbs higher mark than today). May not have got home that day but this race is easier.
        Rarely runs on even g/soft ground but I wouldnt say he definitely doesn;t go on it. He did run poorly on it last summer at York but that run sandwiched two poor runs on quicker ground, so was probably just out of form.

        Matt 12/06/16 12:14 PM Reply


        • Yep there isn’t now – two of the non runners – shore step and related – are usually up there, leading/pace pushing – so what pace there was, was mainly away from Hoof It. He tracks the pace usually and I suspect they may be an arrow formation up the middle of the track now or something. There wont be an excuse for him on that front I dont think. I haven’t looked in much depth at the others in truth. If you like Bogart and the price etc, you have to go with what your brain/heart is telling you!

          Josh Wright 12/06/16 12:19 PM Reply


        • I notice George Cinq has been well backed.
          Maye the James Doyle factor? Also dropping to 6f for the first time ever (only been with George Scott for this seasn), and he hasn’t been getitng home over further when frontrunning this season.
          He could also get quite an easy lead if he does have the pace for 6 fuurlongs.
          Ground is fine, he’s in decent form and is on a decent mark.

          He does look very interesting!

          Matt 12/06/16 12:19 PM Reply


          • yep agree – and he could get an ‘easy lead’ in the context of a sprint– they may make plenty of use of him and any horse that is able to dictate is always dangerous. He looks sure to be in the mix. Looks a good little contest, despsite the NRs.

            Josh Wright 12/06/16 12:28 PM Reply


          • There are NRs will be tricky with draw

            Pab 12/06/16 12:30 PM Reply


  • Jabba sunday madness
    5:10 DONCASTER Waltz Darling 23/1
    only one course winner
    super Jabba bet 3:00 DONCASTER Holy Grail 38/1

    Pab 12/06/16 12:28 PM Reply


    • 4:05 DONCASTER Island Flame 5/1

      Pab 12/06/16 12:33 PM Reply


      • Finally 3:45 SALISBURY Naadirr 13/1 Botti horse

        Pab 12/06/16 12:38 PM Reply


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