Saturday’s Members Report: 11/06/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

3.45 Muss

Thesme – 1 point win – 10/1 2nd (ran well, no complaints there) 

Judicial – 1 point win – 12/1 Up 7/1 (possibly over before race,definitely over once gates opened,missed it)

Some stats to start with. I used a few as a guide namely:-

  • Top 8 LTO
  • Age 6 or younger
  • Placed at least 1 of last 4 starts 
  • 2-7 career wins
  • Top 2 on at least one of last 5 starts 
  • No run G1 or G2

You can see the trends/stats posts for why they stood out to me. But, given the numbers and fact this is only 10th renewal I think – well I only found stats for last 9- they are certainly a guide- as trends etc always are. 

That leaves a shortlist of: both selections, Hoofalong/Seethesun/Secretinthepark/Kimberella/Royal Birth

Thesme – we/I backed her LTO where she ran very well at York. She is fast, very fast. I am unsure if there was a track bias or not but the winner came from tracking the pace on the far side and it could be there was quicker ground there that day. The Ryan horse blew it a bit and came from Thesme’s side also, running a blinder, and he could end up being smart. I don’t know if there will be a track bias here or not so have gone with one either side – there is scorching pace on both sides. She has a decent pot in here and at one stage will look the winner. A repeat of that last run is going to put her right in the mix and it is solid form. She is going to be in the right place and there will be no excuses. The trainer could be in better form but the more fancied ones in recent weeks have run just fine, with a few places. It could be she is on the wrong side if it is quicker ground near-side, but I would simply be guessing really I think. A double figure price was fair. 

Judicial – well this one is too big at 12s based on that last run. At Thirsk he was able to run up with Red Barron and go too quick for Kimberella. He kept on well to win going away. He is lightly raced, on an upward curve, drawn around plenty of pace and the trainer is in form. The jockey rides this track well and if repeating that last run – and may well improve further – he won’t be far away here. He clearly has temperament issues and was led down LTO, as well as having headgear. He could lose his race before the start, that is a risk. But, if he gets out he will be able to just sit off the pace and pounce in the final furlong.

We should get a decent run for our money from both of these and at the prices were the two I want to be on. They are in form, look to be progressive (‘capper may not have them yet) and either lead or race up with the pace. 

PACE – Red Barron and Thesme should blast along from the low numbers, up that far side rail. They may migrate to the centre if it is deemed a track bias- we will know from the consolation sprint earlier on maybe – but if it is the same all over they should stay up that far rail. There may be more sustained pace high, but she is quick, as is Red Barron, and they could be leading the far side early. Numbers 12,13 and 15 look likely to try and take the high numbers along. Judicial should just sit off these and pick up the pieces – in theory! 

Clearly, as always in these sprints, you can make a case for a few more but there was nothing at bigger prices that caught the eye. Money is important for Cowell’s winners in these c2 sprint handicaps – one has won above 9/1 in recent years but it is rare. In any case, they both have plenty to prove. Kimberella has an obvious chance and maybe a fair price- but short enough for me. Those that ran at Epsom LTO have yet to do brilliantly here (small samples of course) and Judicial did thump him at Thirsk. Duke of Firenze will need some luck again as always with his style- he may get it, or they may have flown. The rest have enough to prove for me but you can make a case for most. Robot Boy would interest me if he had a run under the belt. I think Seethesun needs further, best at 6f, and could be outpaced here near the end. Hoofalong falls down on some Easterby stats from my C2 Sprint Handicap piece of research. The days rest is a concern as it coming from the AW, and he needs to step up – unsure if good enough at C2 on turf, but yet to prove he isn’t I suppose. 

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There may be more to come, tips wise, but they will be up on Saturday morning by 11am. I will have a look at the C3 consolation sprint at Muss and the C2 7f handicap from York. There is a good 3yo only C2 sprint but I like to leave 3yo only handicaps alone. 

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TIPS

That will be all for today. I will just stick with the trends sprint above.   

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers

3.10 Muss: Olivia Fallow 2nd 7/2

3.45 Muss: Desert Law (18/1<) DNQ

5.10 Chest: Foxtrot Knight (any odds)  UP

5.20 York: Art Obesssion DNQ / Naggers UP

Other

Mehaan Maidens (any odds) 

4.30 Sand: Ma Peek UP 25/1

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

York (9/1<) 

1.50 Burano DNQ

2.25: Alfred Hutchinson 3rd / That is The Spirit UP

3,35: Lathom DNQ

4.10: Jacbequick UP / Nonchalent DNQ / Tadaany DNQ/ Terhaal DNQ

5.20: Bop It DNQ / Intisaab 2nd / Mime Dance DNQ 

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2.35 Muss: Gabrial The Duke (any odds) UP

2.50 Chest: Gabrial The Terror 2nd / Modernism UP (both 14/1<) 

4.55 Muss: Gabrial The Tiger (any odds) WON 5/1>5/2

5.10 Chest: Ballesteros DNQ (heart stopping!!) / Lexis Hero WON 4/1>7/2

7.20 Ling: Great Expectations (9/1<)

8.20 Ling: Little Indian (9/1<) 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.20 Mime Dance – 25/1 – (UP- ground may have gone against him in the end.. not that it appears this was his day) The PROFILE HORSE klaxon- (and also a potential system bet above) for his old connections this ones ideal conditions appeared to be C4 or below. good/good to firm – which I believe he gets here. 2,4,1,6,2,3,1,3,1 in such conditions. There is always some caution when they move yards of course and this ones winning form has been over 7f. In the past money has also been important  for the horse – 0/15,0 places above 6/1 all races. And, we know about O’Meara’s stats with those over 9/1 here- the odd one does go in, and maybe this is that one! Not one to go mad over but that formline is tempting for a little EW interest I think, 4 places.

I should add for my Daily Punt Column i highlighted the chances of Dark Amber in the 1.45 Bath at 6/1. 

 ***

That is all for today. Too much racing again for a Saturday, it’s hard to know where to look! 

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Yesterday… Well Parsnip Pete ensured that I had a free evening out at Aintree in the end but even that didn’t help me get over the disappointment of Monkey Kingdom – maybe living up to his name. He was backed in and then drifted back out, which I never like and Curtis wasn’t at the track either, despite having two runners. There is maybe nothing in that, but it is never  a positive, in any case. I am not going to look for an excuse – unless he done some damage jumping a fence or there was a physical issue as he seemed to stop very quickly down the side/turning in. Stamina wouldn’t have been an issue at that point and neither was the rain sodden turf. One of those. Annoying.

Mias Anthem – the 25/1 winner – it’s always easy to say ‘ah I would have never picked that’ and be done with it – but I think I should be backing every winner of every 3m+ handicap chase that goes in at a ‘value’ price (clearly that will never happen but that’s my attitude) and its good to try and learn something. Clearly the two most recent runs were the ones that got the attention, and namely that last effort, which while over hurdles was lackluster. Before yesterday he was 0/17,1 places when above 8/1 – just showing that those kind of stats can mean bugger all sometimes. Two runs ago he may have needed the run, over an inadequate trip. If you look at his two wins before that -5 and 6 starts ago- then you may be left thinking why have I let him go off at 25/1 carrying no money. At Sedgefield he had Highland Lodge behind him- his last run for Lavelle before leaving and winning the Becher chase. If you just looked at those two runs – then 25s was too big. That was solid enough chasing form. Clearly I didn’t just look at those. In the end I backed an in-form horse who bombed out while a seemingly out of form horse dotted up. What a game! 🙂 Add in that he had come over the water and Fox was in the saddle in a race where Lucinda Russell had a runner (I am unsure if she has first dibs on him or what relationship is now Buchanan has retired – but I suspect he had the choice) and 25s does look big. Of course that is all said having watched him win. But, from every unbacked winner, there is always something to try and take away. Another puzzle unsolved. 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Mime dance a bet tomorrow ? Currently 28/1 bet victor

    Rory 10/06/16 5:05 PM Reply


    • Last at York was one of the profiled horses

      Rory 10/06/16 5:06 PM Reply


      • Hi Rory, ground and class ok, not so sure about the trip. Wins at 7 furlongs, hope this helps.

        Roy Bedford 11/06/16 2:54 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Glad you mentioned Judicial’s temperament issues that plus large field is trainer’s only concerns.A touch of class and a quota of spirit unbeatable 🙂

    Bill 10/06/16 5:30 PM Reply


    • Thanks Bill – yep if he keeps it altogether he should be going close, based on that last run at least – 12s was fine to take that slight risk I think, He could do this well, was pulling away the last day. Fingers crossed!

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:14 AM Reply


  • Too much flat racing tomorrow so i’m having a bet on Kai Broon in the 5pm Hexham.Backed last week,where he ran into a horse in front and ruined his chance,might have better luck tomorrow

    gerry 10/06/16 7:42 PM Reply


    • Dystonia’s Revenge looks another contender, down to C5 with CD form.

      Chris 11/06/16 5:58 AM Reply


  • Nice one Josh

    Will also have a tickle on Secret in the Park if the Good-ness of the ground stays. Trends plus and goes well fresh. Late withdrawal from the Epsom Dash though, but Im not sure how to read into that

    Ali 10/06/16 10:41 PM Reply


    • yep can see why you may at the prices – Cowell is a master but his best form has been over a stiff 5 furlong / won at 7f and I wondered whether this would happen too quickly for him – some money would make me twitchy- and cowell may have trained more speed into him, if possible!

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:17 AM Reply


  • Pricewise has given these two…

    Rich 11/06/16 3:53 AM Reply


    • Always reassuring, I think! Albeit he has been in turbulent form although I believe recent weeks have been better. They had a stand out chance at their prices, let’s see if the horses can follow the script!

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:19 AM Reply


  • Every race I look at has ground concerns if or not it rains, every weather forecast I look at says it might be a deluge but it might not.

    Help!

    Ian 11/06/16 6:18 AM Reply


    • In that case best to sit out sometimes. I thought Muss was going to be fine , maybe odd shower, but on what is firm ground I would like to think it won’t turn soft- anything can happen then. Horrible when the weather is so uncertain. Aintree last night – received much more rain and there was plenty of soft about which didn’t suit a few/

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:20 AM Reply


      • I live just across the River Forth from Musselburgh and it has been only light rain all morning. Just enough to take the sting ou of it. Muss can take a lot of rain.

        Mike Dennis 11/06/16 9:33 AM Reply


  • I see Tom Segal is nicking your tips today – had to laugh, the write ups nowhere near as good !!!
    Hopefully one will scoot up !!

    Best of luck Josh

    Joe 11/06/16 6:39 AM Reply


    • Ha I do hope so – if I won money based on my write ups I would be very rich! Sadly not enough of the horses have been reading them!

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:21 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    My mates horse Spice Fair is running in the 5.05 at Sandown , they are expecting a good run , but they would be even more confident if the rain arrives , so maybe keep an eye on the weather/going , he would be better on the softer side of good

    iain anderson 11/06/16 7:48 AM Reply


    • Hi Iain, cheers, enjoy info like that from connections- will keep an eye out.

      Josh Wright 11/06/16 8:22 AM Reply


    • NR

      Chris 11/06/16 8:24 AM Reply


  • my main bet today is SHIPYARD (3.10 –muss appleby

    Pab 11/06/16 9:45 AM Reply


    • 7/1

      Pab 11/06/16 9:45 AM Reply


  • I have more bets than I care to mention today but whilst I know he doesnt fit the trends but I dont think Silvanus should be the outsider of the field in the 15:45 at Musselburgh. The other big priced one I thought was interesting was Eutropious in the 16:10 at York who has been running relatively well all spring whilst slipping down the weights.

    Nick Mazur 11/06/16 11:29 AM Reply


  • The booking of Tom Scudamore on an Irish Raider in the 5.35 at Hexham is interesting,Secret Approach at 14/1,hardly making journey for the scenery alone

    gerry 11/06/16 11:31 AM Reply


  • Try again!
    San 2.10 MIKMAK will not be far away. Been waiting to run for a little while now!
    San 4.30 SIRDAAL is a crazy price. Expecting a nice return!
    50/1 and 66/1.
    Two for hex……D. PRATT ‘s rides. Quality jockey.

    Jarrod 11/06/16 11:47 AM Reply


  • One from the kelleway stable at 12/1, Fiftytintsofgrey, 9.10 Leic, one for the night birds.

    I shall be watching England with a drink in my hand.

    Martin Colwell 11/06/16 12:41 PM Reply


    • For anyone using search it’s SILVER not GREY

      mozzer 11/06/16 6:00 PM Reply


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