Members Report: 10/06/16 (COMPLETE)

ROYAL ASCOT 2016: Stats Pack

I have been busy compiling some stats for Royal Ascot and you can get hold of this report HERE>>>

I have sent this to monthly Donations Club Members for free but if you are not in that club you can buy a copy for £10 (+ vat)

Inside you can find:-

  1. Trainer Micro Systems
    • Five Micro Systems that I have researched for Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston and Kevin Ryan. These can also be found in the main ‘trainer profiles’…
  2. Trainer Profiles
    • I have been through all 9 trainers that have had four or more winners at this meeting since 2011. I have used a variety of filters and ‘ways in’ to highlight positives and negatives.
  3. Other Trainers Of Note
    • A bullet point list of other trainer’s records that caught the eye, mainly for negative reasons.
  4. General Handicap Stats By Age Restriction Type
    • I have had a top level look at the handicaps divided by age restriction type. So, those for 3yo, 3yo+, 4yo+. Again I have used various filters in HRB to highlight stats of interest.

The stats for the 5 Micro Systems since 2011:-

124 bets / 40 wins / 67 places / 32% win SR /  +269 points Betfair SP

Now, these five trainers may not make the average of +54 points at this year’s meeting, but we can dream! We should have some fun in any case.

The report is full of other points as well, including for example the stats for Mark Johnston’s runners that are 0/70, 3 places. Or , in which race-type STALLS 1-5 are: 0/64, 6 places

There is plenty there to get stuck into and you can do just that, for £10 (+vat) below…

GRAB YOUR ROYAL ASCOT STATS PACK HERE>>>

(ClickBank will email you a receipt and in that email will be a link to the download. As it is through ClickBank, if you don’t like it/don’t use it/think it’s no good, you can get a refund, no problem)

I will be emailing out every day to Donations Club Members detailing potential qualifiers from the 5 Micro Systems. So, if you want access to that, and get to get the report for ‘free’, you can join the Donations Club at the link below…

Join the £12 monthly Donations Club HERE>>>

(again, free to cancel anytime with that – you may just want to join for next week! 🙂 )

***

Right, with that said, some horses…

I am off to Aintree on Friday evening – I try and get to all of their race meetings given it is 20 minutes up the road by train. This one is a music night which pushes up the price, but no doubt makes the track some more cash. My focus will be on the racing but I am sure I will give Tom Jones a listen! 🙂 Provided the ground stays decent, it may well be another prominent racers paradise. 

For now…

 

 

TIPS 

7.05 Aintree

Monkey Kingdom – 1 point win – 7/1 (BV/WH/Racebets) 13/2 (general) 

My evening at Aintree could well be compromised by the weather here – they had 1mm last evening, are due some light showers this afternoon and some heavy rain from about 5pm-7pm – if BBC Weather is to be believed. In a sense that means some guesswork I suppose- which is never ideal – but it looks unlikely to be firm and in any case this one wont really mind what it does, as long as the ground doesn’t turn heavy.

My general approach is to look through all the runners and then work my way through them starting with the one that is the biggest price, seeing if something is overpriced, in my opinion, against my judgement of his chance/opposition. This is somewhat on feel rather than a complicated mathematical approach which isn’t really for me. The whole ‘creating your own tissue’ is maybe an area I should explore more. Anyway…

At 7s, or 13/2, this is the one that stands out as being a shade too big to me, given his recent form and his profile. This is his 19th start and 11th over fences. The run LTO here was decent and it is the step up in trip that catches the eye- the doing something different theory- he ran well here, over 2m4f on good, staying on near the end. At times it all did appear to be happening too quickly though and this trip could be right up his street. In a hunter chase at Ffos Las, on heavy, after a 200+ day break, he ran very well over 3m until the last furlong or so having led for most of the latter part of the race. I think that demonstrated this trip should be fine and there is a chance he improves for it- that is the risk, and just about built into his price for me, in the context of the oppo. Curtis’ horses are running ok – 1/7, 3 places last 2 weeks, and we know the horse handles the track. He is fine on good, he is fine on soft. He has hit a high of OR137 and won a novice chase of OR132 – he races here, with the claim, off OR120-so, his mark should be within reach. If he does relish the step up I think he could take all the beating here. 

Of the rest…well Mercers Court steps up in quality here, this looking a stronger race than he has contested to date. He will try and take them along and is clearly in good heart. 5s is ok though,nothing more, all things considered. Call Me Vic comes from the handicap chasing dream team who must always be feared. But, he has only won weakish novice races and it is that Worcester run which dampens enthusiasm. His record suggests he must go LH, so you could ignore his last run, but I am not sure how good he is really. Trainer is in form and there could be more to come but I was happy to leave.(not shocked if he does run better given few miles on clock) I’m In Charge has gone up a lot in weight, is a 10 year old, and needs it like a road it would appears. If the rain materialises he could be in trouble, and in any case needs to step forward again.

Belmount is consistent and that may win the day, but I think there could be something with more in hand here. One of those placed efforts may be enough but the selection, at the same price, just has more excitement for me and more potential, given the step up in trip. Presented is a slow plodder who may find it happening too quickly around here and who needs to find more- something always seems to beat him even in ideal conditions. He is a big price but a few  would have to underperform for him to plod to victory here- which they may do of course. Whats Up Woody is up in the ratings and as an 11yo may find some younger legs progressing past him. Hopefully he takes on the King horse up front and they set it up for something sitting just off the pace. His most recent run was off 101 with a 5lb claim, he goes off 112 with no claim here – looks up against it given his age. But, he is running ok. The rest just look out of sorts and out for form – I can’t really back them on recent form. Some of them are maybe priced up to take a chance but not for me. I’ve maybe backed a few too many out of form horses in recent months to my cost, hoping they may bounce back. They just all look to be a bit too out of form. Pantxoa is interesting for new connections but for Alan King he was 0/13,3 places with any juice in ground and 0/13,3 p 12+ runners. He likes going LH but when last seen he was in awful form. These connections may bring him back at some point. 

So, that’s it for this race. We have an in-form horse who knows the track and could appreciate the step up in trip on what we have seen to date. The trainer is in decent enough form and the horse still has relatively low mileage and at some point will run to a higher rating than he has now. At 7s he looks the one to be on. He may not stay of course and then connections will be left head-scratching, as will I, – but he is well worth  a go over 3m on decent enough ground to see if that is the key. He knows how to win and should give it a good go. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers 

3.45 York: Mississippi (18/1<) DNQ

Jumps Handicappers 

8.10 Aint: Walden Prince (14/1<)

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

York (all 9/1<) (those going off over 9/1, 4/127, 19 places -58) 

2.35: Maraakib 3rd 15/2 / Pandora WON 8/1 

3.45: Alejandro UP / Regal Dan UP/ Rex Imperator DNQ 

4.20: Rural Celebration 

5.20: Kip 

Chepstow (14/1<) 

9.10: Fuzzy Logic / Taste The Wine 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.30 Newton A – HIJA- 25/1 – this is a stab in the dark (with a hint of light) but I just couldn’t resist at 25/1. This one has form in all race conditions, and even more so if a drop of rain to take the sting out of the ground. Most in here have a lot to prove and while there are some more likely winners near the top of the market, an EW stab on this one may be entertaining. Her form comes from winning a CD maiden hurdle in April last year, 8 runs ago. That demonstrated she did at least have some ability and while it clearly wasn’t the strongest maiden in the world the second did come out and win again and so did the 5th, twice. So, at least some mediocre substance there. This is her first try back over this CD. She didn’t do much in a few novice hurdles after that or in the handful of handicap hurdles since. But, this is only her 5th handicap hurdle, she was given a mark of 104 but now comes here off 94 and I thought worth a stab. She may just be a rubbish racehorse, like a few in here no doubt, but as I said the fact she did win a maiden hurdle suggests there is something there, somewhere. We shall see. 

***

That is all for today. I have’t had time to go through any stats really, and not the TTP – so TTP users, if there is anything that stands out that you wish to share, feel free to comment away! 🙂 

***

SATURDAY: There is plenty of decent sprint action to get stuck into and I will get some trends up on Friday at some point – There are a couple from Muss and some interesting ones at York. I will see which ones have trends etc. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • A few early birds for Friday – 4.20 York, Giddy to win; 5.20 York, Tamayuz Magic, each way; 3.45 No Mississippi, each way.

    If I hear anything I will post tomorrow lunch time.

    Martin Colwell 09/06/16 9:35 PM Reply


  • Think clickbank must hate me!!!! Same problem with the download as last time Josh 🙁

    James b 09/06/16 9:43 PM Reply


    • I have emailed you it I believe. Let me know what you think!

      Josh Wright 09/06/16 10:04 PM Reply


      • Looks impressive Josh hopefully can make a few quid out of it like the last one

        James b 10/06/16 12:12 PM Reply


        • cheers mate – yep hopefully, some meetings it will work (aintree/punch) some others may not so much (dont think much came out of Epsom,couple close ones on some angles) Over time I think that collective big meeting micro angle approach is a decent way forward…We shall see – some of the trainer angles exciting and the handicap race profiling stats should help. Proof will be in the eating!

          Josh Wright 10/06/16 12:29 PM Reply


  • Mississippi is intriguing in the big 7f handicap at York; has 1 mile form but mainly been targeted at 6 furlongs, given a terrible ride last time; on the bridle and just not given a chance, his York form is not great and the O’Meara trio have to be feared but may be this trip could unlock some untapped potential.

    I will also have a few bob on Gran Canaria Queen in the 4.20 against some unexposed younger types, track record is compelling as too is her form in June!

    Ian 10/06/16 8:28 AM Reply


    • Me likes that GCQ too, cdg & a 7lb clear top rpr before the website start tampering with their figs…

      York Top 5 cdg’s Rex Imp 9lb clear top but falls outside Josh’s price range – me likes the price of Baddilini, now 40/s

      3.45 3 (0-90)
      qm 102 7f
      Rex Imperator 9-7
      Baddilini 8-6
      Regal Dan 9-2
      Alejandro 9-2
      Green Howard 9-1

      Andy Silvers 10/06/16 11:51 AM Reply


      • He does have winners in the system at a bigger price, just hard to find and lose a lot backing systematically. Rex may be one of those and if you like his chance, sep of any system etc, I wouldn’t let that put you off!

        Josh Wright 10/06/16 11:57 AM Reply


  • Morning all, anyone fancy
    3.30 San REGULATION
    4.40 San FIRESNAKE
    8.45 Ain THE ROAD AHEAD?

    Jarrod 10/06/16 9:09 AM Reply


    • Just had a look at The Road Ahead and can see why at 12s, you would have a nibble. And, as I am going, I may well do the same! Certainly at prices the 3 shorter priced ones dont make much appeal. The horse probably needed run LTO and could take a massive step forward – drops 2 classes and into a small field mares event. Trainer is in ok form and believe last winner was for same owners- another one moved from The Bowens. 12s seems fair enough for a stab. May need another run or two, may need headgear to return, but built into price, given only 6 runners. And, ran ok for a long enough way LTO. Interesting. Good spot.

      Josh Wright 10/06/16 9:15 AM Reply


      • Yes Josh I agree. I also looked at 7.45 Ain MOLASSES
        5.30 NA CRAZY TRAIN. Both fit race history profiles….a route in I like to check out. I echo the sentiment of yesterday’s comments by someone who said if he doesn’t blog the horse wins.
        I tipped up INSIGHT AT 50/1, and a 14/1 unlucky horse the same day both 2nd. One I had Saturday I didn’t blog was LADY RA.

        Jarrod 10/06/16 11:12 AM Reply


        • Owner of THE ROAD AHEAD had 6 runners over 2 days a few weeks ago. Think they are all worth following NTO.

          Jarrod 10/06/16 11:14 AM Reply


    • I like Firesnake myself. Trainer/Jockey have an excellent record at the track. Has been nibbled at from 10/1 to 7/1.

      Nick Mazur 10/06/16 11:58 AM Reply


  • I wasn’t impressed with the way Parsnip Pete finished off his race last time but maybe Paddy will be wise to him this time,so will give him one more chance in the 8.10,trainer still in flying form

    i 10/06/16 11:48 AM Reply


  • Some Scottish Sprint Trophy Trends/Stats…

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/sat-big-race-trends-scottish-sprint-trophy/

    Josh Wright 10/06/16 11:56 AM Reply


  • One to add from the Greatrex stable – 7.40 AI, Mighty Missile, each way, only 6/1 now!

    Martin Colwell 10/06/16 12:16 PM Reply


  • SATURDAY TIPS…

    3.45 Muss:

    Thesme 1 point win 10/1
    Judicial – 1 point win 12/1

    Shop around, both those prices available with handful of bookies.

    Josh Wright 10/06/16 1:20 PM Reply


    • Might play chicken with the bookies since the PP/WH MBS for 2nd offers kick in from 5-5:30 unless I am mistaken.

      Nick Mazur 10/06/16 2:26 PM Reply


  • I like the look of those royal ascot stats, I will be having £20 win on all qualifiers. yearly average of + 54 will do nicely! that stalls 1 to 5 looks interesting,
    will check it and watch out if any bets due on them

    malcolm pendrey 10/06/16 2:06 PM Reply


    • Ha yes I think we would take a repeat of the yearly average! We shall see how they do. There are some eye catching stats scattered throughout it inc those stall stats.

      Josh Wright 10/06/16 2:48 PM Reply


  • Evening, does anyone know if there is a draw bias at chester?

    Max 10/06/16 5:20 PM Reply


  • the surprising thing about the draw in sprints @ chester, is that apparently when soft going, the high numbers do best

    malcolm pendrey 12/06/16 11:32 AM Reply


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