Members Report: 6/6/16 (COMPLETE)

TO NOTE: I am off to Pontefract on Monday evening – my first visit there – easy enough to get to on the train from Liverpool it would appear – so that should be fun. I am meeting up with Ben Aitken of Narrowingthefield fame – we have talked online for probably a good 4/5 years now, and I have him to thank for plenty – namely ‘horse profiling’ as well as a few other things I suspect. Anyway, it will be good to share a beer or three and he has kindly offered to put me up for the evening. In terms of Tuesday’s blog- I will get system bets up on Monday evening and from then on I am unsure. I will be getting a train back early on Tuesday so suspect that may be it – but will keep you posted.

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FREE EURO’s MAGAZINE…

Some of you may have seen my email on Sunday. The chaps who produced the entertaining/informative 32 page Cheltenham Festival magazine are doing the same for the Euro’s.

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⦁ In-depth analysis of all 24 teams, including a rundown of all the key players to keep an eye out for.

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⦁ A comprehensive profile of the managers looking to mastermind their side to victory.

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What do I get from this?

Well, for each person that signs up to their list, to get the report, makes me £1. That will help pay for the blog redesign, which is coming along well. I had a ‘meeting’ on Sunday afternoon with my techie friend who is doing it and so far so good. His bill so far is £500 (and I think that may be including ‘mates rates’!) So, every little helps. A win win all round really 🙂 (we are aiming for a ‘launch date’ on the 1st of August- the front end is changing – same ‘feel’ but much improved + a lot of back end changes|coding/’Members area/functionality’|Forum| general tidy up etc)

So, you can simultaneously get hold of a decent free magazine and at the same time contribute to an improvement in the design of this blog. What’s not to like 🙂 Click the link below…

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Some horse….

 

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TIPS

None today. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainer

3.00 Ayr: Intensified (any odds) UP

4.00 Ayr: Favourite Treat (any odds) WON 16/1

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS

4.00 Ayr: Haidees Reflection (16/1<) UP

7.45 Ponte: Gallipoli UP/ Gin In The Inn (both 9/1<) UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

2.45 Brighton: Essaka – 14/1 – UP- Keen TTP users will note the trainers decent enough record in 3yo+ handicaps here. A solid enough 6/31, 14 places, +20 SP before the season started. This price just looks big for a horse that is now 0/8, 1 place on the AW and doesn’t look to enjoy those artificial surfaces. Of course he could just be out of form but it is his turf form here that catches the eye. His last win was in August 2015, over the CD off a mark of 54 – which, with the claim, is what he runs off here today. His last run at the track was in a C4 off effectively OR60 when including the 5lb claim, where he came a credible 3/9, beaten 1 1/4 lengths. This is a C6. He is 1/3,3 places over this CD. While the trainer doesn’t have any ‘green symbols’ next to his name he is 4/28 in the last 14 days, 40% winning or placing. So, they are running OK. Given all of the above and the fact many in here appear to have issues with a decent surface, I couldn’t resist a go at 14/1. He ticks a lot of boxes and if running up to his best must be in the mix. 

8.45 Ponte: Geoff Potts 9/1 UP

While this one isn’t 10/1 I thought at 9s, which he is in a couple of places, he is worth a go. In the last year the trainer is 3/12,4 places with his handicap debutants,+32 SP. His string are running ok, 2/11, 3 places in last 2 weeks and they could just be starting to hit form. The jockey booking also catches the eye – Kingscote rides this track well and I read an article on Timeform that looked at Jockey’s early position – which is something they have been researching for some time,building up data – and Kingscote rides many of his from the front or just off the pace, more so than the average. He is a decent rider and from this draw there is a chance he decides to get out and make all- or try to at least. On this ground, at this track, I think that is where you want to be – it could be a front runners/prominent racers evening. There has been some promise on his maiden runs where he has been staying on well enough. It may be that he will want further in time. The trainer is 0/5,0 places with runners here – they are small numbers and at the price I am happy to ignore for now. There appear to be plenty in here that are unfancied and given that this one could have something in hand we could have some fun. The geegeez draw stats tell me that those drawn 12 or higher over this distance on this ground are 0/28,0 places on recent races here- so a few of them, including the fav, have some work to do. 

That is all for this sections. 

 

BONUS

Well I am off to the races to what follows are some initial thoughts on what catches my eye here. These notes should be viewed as a starting point to further analysis, if you want to take an interest in some of them…

6.45 – well I may as well try and put my ‘jumping’ paddock eye to good use here- which has been getting better over the sticks- no idea if I can transfer that to this race but I am sure something may leap of the page. At a price – Red Shanghai UP- is interesting – now, he may just be running to get a nursery mark or something- but his dam is a US 6f winner and a few other indications suggest that maybe this rattling fast ground, as opposed to the good to soft, may see him in better light. He also steps up in trip and is low drawn, with Kingscote on top. I probably can’t resist a small bet at 25s to find out + anything that catches my eye pre race. Very much a ‘going to the races’ bet! – as most of these are really…

7.15 – Bulas Belle – 16/1 WON- interests me from a pace angle – he look the only out and out front runner in the race and from that Catterick run we know he stays well. On his second start of the season last year he came a head second. There seems to be a feeling that he is best on soft and wont handle the ground – but that is rather inconclusive. He came a decent second here, in a maiden admittedly, on good to firm – but the way he finished suggested it wasn’t bothering him to the extent of not being able to put his feet down effectively etc. It looks like he will lead for some of the way in any case, and I know he stays, so I should get an exciting run for my money – for a few furlongs at least! He is unexposed over these trips, and in general really, only 2/11 on flat. 

7.45 – I have the well backed Gallipoli from the systems to keep me interesting here – 6/1>10/3, His other runner is interesting – given the break the market may well guide, and so far it is screaming to leave him alone. But, he makes his hncp debut and returns after 90 days+ – both of which come up well in the TTP here -it will be interesting what the market does up to the race. I did think the Barron horse may try and take all but there are a few prominent racers and I can’t see one getting a really easy lead without having to do too much. But, he may give it a good go. 

8.15 – no strong views on this one – Again the pace angle makes Rosamaria UPinteresting – she could get an uncontested lead – but Franny is on the other Johnston runner and this one does have a stamina question – but an unknown rather than having proved she doesn’t – first try at trip. I probably won’t resist an interest bet on this one. 4 others look tight at the top of the market and a bit of a guessing game. 

8.45 – We have the ‘stats/angles’ horse to keep me interested in this race. If Slingsby were better drawn I may be tempted at a bigger price- Trainer/Jockey 5/9,7 places in the last 2 weeks and he is very well handicapped, albeit seemingly out of form. Tough draw. I may use the ‘paddock eye’ again to find something else. 

9.15 – Innocently UP has the perfect draw to try and make all here and ticks plenty of boxes at 9/2 – I think he may have been 7s or so last evening. He is 3/9,4 places on good to firm, 2/5,2 places in C5 and 1/1 OR 61-70. He looks like he may run a good race here. Mr Furtado can do no wrong at the moment and his string are bouncing – plenty of green 14s/30s. Eternitys Gate WON- 11/2 therefore of some interest. He also has a decent record with stable newcomers. Both may be short enough but when you go racing it isn’t all about value – sometimes you do just want winners! Hopefully one of these two can close of the evening with a bang, of sorts. 

So, you will have a pretty good idea if I will be staring into the bottom of my pint glass come 9.20! These are only for interest and a bit of fun and not too much time has gone into the race analysis – usually when that happens you get what you deserve, but we shall see! 

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Good Luck with your Monday wagers. 

I will be back later tonight with the systems. 

Josh 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • Eric Winner tips Jinky 4.30 Ayr stable out of form but jockey 8/14 place record with & he’s a clear top cdg, is a fair 16/s EW price?

    Andy Silvers 06/06/16 8:29 AM Reply


    • Hmm – well it is a decent price and you would want one given the negatives – trainer is very cold – 0/30,3 places the last month. And the horse needs to prove he is up to c4 – 0/14,4 places so far, all wins C5, 0/8,1 place above C4. He has the odd decent placed run to suggest not a forlorn hope and that Eric chap is quite good isnt he, at this long term profit game – so who am I to critique!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 8:59 AM Reply


  • ESSAKA now down to 7/1 or less.

    Mike Dennis 06/06/16 9:04 AM Reply


    • hmm yes, he seems to have taken a tumble rather suddenly! There is a 10p R4 but still – don’t think that is us, but who knows!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 9:09 AM Reply


  • One at Ponty that caught my eye was Dagash in the 7.15, comes a long way for the run, had 2 runs that have been poor but likes to hear his hooves rattle and looking back this is a very winnable handicap mark, just a hunch that he could pop up at a nice e/w price

    Ian 06/06/16 9:09 AM Reply


    • Hi Ian, by the time I got on it was down to 4s…so I left it…..it looks ready to go in though…i’ll list it……thanks.

      Tony Mc. 06/06/16 8:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I have got 16.00 Favourite Treat as non qualifier same distance LTO.

    Roy Bedford 06/06/16 9:28 AM Reply


    • Hi Roy,

      All very strange – it is coming up in my HRB system and I have checked the rules and all is fine!

      Having checked HRB race cards and records – they have his last race down as 7f – they have this one down as 7.5f…

      BUT, if you look anywhere else – and I have looked on the RP – he is running over exactly the same trip as LTO! – as you point out.

      All very strange. Now, the system has been researched in HRB and the results may well include similar anomalies to this – I don’t know.

      What you do with him is up to you but he WILL go down as a qualifier, whatever happens. Very odd.

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 9:50 AM Reply


  • Hope you have a good evening at Pontefract Josh. I agree Innocently looks a cracking bet (15/2 last night). The other one I like is Vallarta in the 16:30 at Ayr. Interestingly its a Ruth Carr one that doesn’t come up as a system bet.

    Nick Mazur 06/06/16 9:34 AM Reply


    • Ah damn, should have looked last night – got a bit of 9/2, never mind.

      Ah well in HRB he is down as running over the same trip – now she does have winners when doing that, so dont be put off if you like his chance – they are just hard to pick out and dont do well systematically – but suspect one or two may go in this month and you may find them!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 9:55 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    nice course is pontefract, need to get every inch of the trip there! wait till you see how uphill it is for the final mile, talk about a mountain to climb!

    malcolm pendrey 06/06/16 9:52 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm – yes don’t think I have appreciated that so look forward to having a good look! That may play into the Gask runners hands given how he has stayed on over 6f in maidens – may be right up his street, we shall see! Given ground you would think it will be hard to come from behind, leaders may not come back – if they stay.

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 9:56 AM Reply


  • Teetotal 8.45 Pont 3-4-13 @ & 2-2-8 in June & Tops cdg table closely ahead of Bold Spirit, both fair prices?

    Andy Silvers 06/06/16 10:05 AM Reply


  • September Issue, 8.30 Windsor, 16/1, stable expecting a big run.

    Martin Colwell 06/06/16 11:23 AM Reply


    • Thanks open race SI jockey is Luke Moris sure good ew bet

      Pab 06/06/16 1:09 PM Reply


      • got 22/1 lets see

        Pab 06/06/16 1:31 PM Reply


    • Good run in the end to get through that wall of horses for a place…cheers mate

      Paul 06/06/16 7:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin…great shout…I got 20s….I think it may have won had the jockey not got boxed early on….but it’s a definite winner to be.
      Cheers Martin….

      Tony Mc. 06/06/16 7:38 PM Reply


  • I’m also going tonight Josh was tempted and the weather twisted my arm.

    Let’s hope for a good night mate!

    Tom 06/06/16 11:36 AM Reply


    • Yes it looks glorious – well if it is anything like Liverpool it will be boiling! Looking forward to it. If you see me do say hello – I will be around the paddock at various points and at the bars no doubt!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 12:36 PM Reply


      • I’ll look out for you then Josh.

        Tom 06/06/16 1:23 PM Reply


  • Expecting a better run from Tom Sawyer 9.15 Pontefract. Should be coming to hand now.

    John Gorton 06/06/16 1:40 PM Reply


  • That will give the micros a welcome boost! Even drifted to 16s.

    Nick Mazur 06/06/16 3:06 PM Reply


    • Ah lovely,that has raised spirits on my trundle to Pontefract, and a drift. Super,and needed!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 3:23 PM Reply


  • LOL JOSH!!!! let the good times roll…..Favourite treat. well done lad……..calm down…..
    Have a good evening out Josh.

    Tony Mc. 06/06/16 3:26 PM Reply


    • Haha. There was no jumping around, those micros,collectively,have a long climb to go after the first 5 months of mediocrity. But, a good start to June for them has lifted spirits. I do wish they would kick on!

      Josh Wright 06/06/16 3:29 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Did not back 4.00 Ayr: Favourite Treat; congrats to everyone who did, Sod’s law, wasn’t totally convinced of the form so would not have backed it , can’t win them all.

    Roy Bedford 06/06/16 4:29 PM Reply


  • Wow. BB hugely impressive in the 7.15. Great start to the meeting Josh.

    JV 06/06/16 6:25 PM Reply


  • Josh, take a bow sir! Booommm! You scripted that race perfectly. I imagine you and Ben will have much fun for the rest of the evening. Enjoy, and thank you 🙂

    Faz 06/06/16 6:28 PM Reply


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