Members Report: 05/06/16 (COMPLETE)

A quiet day on Sunday. No potential system qualifiers and noting is catching my eye in terms of tipping races. There is a decent chase at Perth but it is a small field and happy to sit it out. I will have a look to see if any ‘stats/angles’ if interest…

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

4.55 Perth: Parc Des Princes – 10/1 –  NR- This lightly raced 10 year old (in recent seasons) caught the eye pre race LTO I think (mentioned on here also maybe) due to the trainer stats – 3/12,7 places with handicap hurdlers here at time I put the TTP together. This one was returning after a break and I mused whether or not he would stay – well he was weak enough in the market and may have needed the run. And he may not stay that trip effectively. He drops back in trip here to around the distance where he has done most of his winning. All race conditions look fine and he is now 2lb below his last winning mark – and that run last time out was OK, not beaten miles. It showed he still retained something. Finally, Richards is in form himself and is the only trainer in the race with ‘green 14s/30s’ (if you watched my geegeez videos you will know what that means) 3/7,5 places the last 14 days, 5/12,7 places the last 30 days. There also looks to be quite a bit of pace on in here which may help this hold up type. Quite a few of the oppo have yet to win on the ground or class, and have plenty to prove. At 10s he looked of mild interest on a quiet day. 

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That is all for today. Enjoy your Sunday. 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Maarek has to be worth a mention for tomorrow in the 1.20 chantilly .His record over 5f when the going is soft is 11211.Great chance for the old boy to grab another group race to add to his collection at 6/1

    mozzer 04/06/16 10:57 PM Reply


    • Made me chuckle this morning, the Racing Post had Foundation at 33/s in their betting forecast… I was thinking Ride Like The Wind could be interesting, up there on the figs & 1/2 the age of Maarek but just looked at his dosage DP = 0-0-5-3-0 (8) DI = 0.45 CD = -0.38 & think he’d be better off going 2 miles not five furlongs ? ?

      Andy Silvers 05/06/16 7:54 AM Reply


  • Judging by the money seems like I not the only one thinking 2/2 for C Appleby @ Goodwood 1.50 Frontiersman 1/2 bro to Australia with Ouija Board as dam & 3.30 Galizzi a similar type to yesterday’s 16/1 2nd Polarisation in that they’re ex-John Ferguson.

    Andy Silvers 05/06/16 7:38 AM Reply


  • Some great judges of flat racing are on this site. My preference is the national hunt so perhaps one of the better judges can help me on the obsession that appears to exist around the M.Johnston stable.
    This is a stable of around 250 horses who do well at a handful of tracks.Ascot,Beverley and Goodwood to name three. . His two year olds appear to run ok but as with others plenty go to the track. He is currently over £170 down to a £1 stake for the season(that is the norm nearly every year). On Saturday he had NINETEEN runners had an 11/1 winner and a 5/2 winner, adding more losses to the pot. Yet whenever i enter a betting shop several people are saying Johnston has one at so and so and one running down south as though they are in awe of this average trainer. I just dont get it. Josh has around three micro angles on him and if i was punting on the flat i would only look at those and possibly some of his 2 year olds. Perhaps i am wrong. I would like to here from better judges than me.

    Roddo 05/06/16 7:55 AM Reply


    • Yep, hard to find ways in for him, much like Fahey. They are just on a different level in terms of numbers. I admire him as a trainer – his ability to keep them fit and he just runs them if they are right, no messing about. His methods also seem to make them tough – most of them have the ability to lead a race all the way from a young age – and that is some achievement – and so many like a fight – rarely do his shirk a close finish, for whatever reason.

      It does mean there is plenty of data to attack and there are a few angles in, a few in my flat TTP. And I have a couple of systems saved for him I think, shared on here in the past maybe. One, similar to mikes…

      -Flat Handicaps
      -3yo and 3yo+ handicaps only
      -April/May/June/July
      -WON a handicap LTO
      -NO class move (so same class as LTO)

      83 bets / 25 wins / 42 places / 30% sr / +120 SP / +163 BFSP / AE 1.33

      4/12,5 places for 0 profit to SP, but earlier odds would have left something. 1/3, +6 points so far this season. Not many runners but usually worth the wait.

      Josh Wright 05/06/16 9:05 AM Reply


    • One tip – wait for Glorious Goodwood!

      I think his change of focus a few years ago where he started getting some of the cream of the 2 year olds from the Sheikhs rather than lose them at 3-4 has not yet really paid off. There is also the fact that some of the older horses he retained are now getting both long in the tooth and in the grip of the handicapper.

      I also think that when he came in to training – primarily as a vet – he had new ideas and concepts that gave him an advantage but that he has now seen others catch up and in some cases – pass him. I agree with the Fahey comparison but others like there like the Easterby’s; Ruth Carr; O’Meara do pro-rata as well as, if not better than Johnston and at times his yard looks more like an equine livery yard than a training stables.

      Ian 05/06/16 9:27 AM Reply


  • I agree with Roddo but I follow M Johnston because he is Scottish,(so am I) and he was a vet, (I’m not) so I like to think he knows a bit more about the workings of a horse than most trainers, he would save a fortune on vet bills alone.
    I have one angle in on him very selective but has 2 from 2 this season so far 9/4 and 8/1. Thats my only 2 bets on Johnston so far this season.
    Back his horses in a hcp with the selection a winner lto running in the same class or below as lto.. You won’t get many horses in a season but you will get a profit especially at his favourite courses.
    Anyone else got a good in on him.

    Mike Dennis 05/06/16 8:10 AM Reply


  • I was wondering why I couldn’t get matched on BF and came on here to find that Josh was tipping Parc des Princes 😉

    Chris 05/06/16 9:14 AM Reply


    • I had a nice touch and put up at the time Urban Kode on here when it won at 14/1 so will have a small punt on that one again today and a reverse f/c with PDP whose fragility over the years has maybe hidden a rather talented horse.

      Ian 05/06/16 9:28 AM Reply


      • Ah yes remember you putting him up then, top work. He should give it another good go today

        Chris – haha I think he looks to be the only horse not moving in the market!! Am sure you wont have a problem getting matched at some point! I don’t think I move markets – maybe a touch in Jan/Feb when everything was going in, but not at the moment!

        Josh Wright 05/06/16 11:12 AM Reply


  • just the one bet for me today:

    Penwortham in the 5.10 Goodw. 8/1 around i think. Twice impeded in-running when still had a chance. I dont think the price takes this into account

    Fahey isn’t known for doing well at the track, but I hear his stable is somewhat bouncing

    Ali 05/06/16 9:20 AM Reply


    • I didn’t have time today for to study the TTp but between your summation and Tucker spotting it in the TTP…I backed it…Well done my friends….nice little touch..Cheers.

      Tony Mc. 05/06/16 4:21 PM Reply


      • Yep well done team, I may have followed you in at 8s- having checked my own TTP and realised he had won the race before – was worth a go – cheers!

        Josh Wright 05/06/16 4:30 PM Reply


  • Im on Penwortham too Ali, found it from the TTP 18%sr 15pts..gl

    Tuckers Luck 05/06/16 10:29 AM Reply


  • M Johnston is worth watching when he sends a horse for the most valuable race of the day to the lower tracks Brighton, Nottingham etc and definitely this is a way in. Franny up at Goodwood generally produces a winner or two

    Tony Tolhurst 05/06/16 11:10 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh…re your Park de Princes…..it’s a bit of a strange race is this…..
    If you take Urban Kode and call it 100% + and then run the rest from 100% down,
    the PDP is rated 9th….yet there are only 3 horses that have won at the distance,.our selection being one of them.
    The other 2 are the bottom of the pile…Exit to Freedom and Blenheim Brook respectively 13th and 14th.
    The oldest rating horse is the 12 yo Claud Carter….rated 6th….and he’s changed the jockey to a 7lb claimer. who is 0% from 50 efforts.
    All your analysis and pluses make this a funny race. Urban Kode is 15% above the second horse…yet you can still get 7s sliding now.
    I shall be going with PdP……I find it strange that in a field of 14….only 3 horses have achieved wins at 2mile 4f as it’s a common distance.

    Tony Mc. 05/06/16 11:15 AM Reply


    • Hi Tony, yep it is very strange – only 6 class winners also and many who have never won on the good to better. But,it is a weak enough race with a few younger ones in it who, while they haven’t done much yet, may show something at some point! My 10/1 poke is clearly fragile but given everything, and esp trainer form, I thought he was worth a nibble – albeit as usual with that section no forensic analysis of the oppo. We shall soon see! GL

      Josh Wright 05/06/16 11:52 AM Reply


      • Your right Josh…a 6yo improver took it…..somewhere in time I remember something about 6yo’s coming on in summer….lol.

        Tony Mc. 05/06/16 4:23 PM Reply


        • yep, surprised at how many non-runners and no damage done with money back!

          Josh Wright 05/06/16 4:28 PM Reply


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