EPSOM DASH TIP
Mukaynis – 1 point EW – 4 places 18/1 (racebets) 16/1 (BoyleS/SJ/LadB/Betway) 14/1 (general, inc 5 places with SkyB and BetfairS)
That will be the only tip for this race. Tomorrow’s post about to be compiled (2.52 as I write)
Well, where to start…
- I have been rather confident and bullish about the last two tips and they have both under-performed, performing way below my expectations. Those kind of runs, when you are having a bumpy time of things, are dejecting. No escape from that. Must do better. But, we/I soldier on. I am not doing anything differently than previously- an approach that has worked fine since mid 2014 on this blog – but,clearly I need to step up, maybe a service/change of oil is needed 🙂
- ‘Wheelbarrow Gate‘…it appears my use of the wheelbarrow phrase has irked some of you good folk. That was a phrase I have used before, to express a certain level of confidence, which is expressed in the staking amount. Most tips are 1 point win (and until i get back into some form probably should be for the foreseeable future) and when I go 2 or 3 points, that phrase sometimes is embedded in the write up. The staking advice is the advice, and as with everything on here what you do with it is up to you BUT…
- It is betting – and I am not sure I need to say this but some of you feel I should – nothing is certain, there is an amount of risk and you should only ever bet what you can afford to lose. If at any point you feel like you are losing control etc there are people that can help, and I am more than happy to point you in their direction. I have mentioned numerous times that if following my advice (tips or systems) you should have the appropriate betting banks – 80-100 points should be fine for the tips, and if following all systems then at least 100 I think just for those. The key is always to start small and build up stakes/bank and ensure that your betting is fun and enjoyable. It is hard to make money in this game, we wouldn’t all be here if it was easy.
- Final point: If there is anything in my presence on these pages which gives the impression that I couldn’t giving a toss about you, my readers and loyal contributors, then I am a bit lost for words. My whole purpose is to try and offer something engaging, that makes your betting fun, enjoyable and with any luck profitable – over time. I read every comment, every email, respond to most where applicable, and in general am here to politely moan at/share ideas with. Financially – I bet all tips to £20 per point and most of the systems – in recent weeks I have open, gaping wounds – you feel pain, I feel it too, and I work bloody hard to try and improve. Right, that’s that.
(no one needs to make any comments in regards to the above, if you did feel the need, let’s discuss some horses…)
I read an article from Matt over at Geegeez where he explained that they had had all kinds of trouble with paypal and the payment system for Geegeez Gold – I think that happened just as I was telling you all to sign up for the trial!
Anyway, I believe those problems are solved now – their new system means you don’t have to have a paypal account/pay via paypal.
The price has yet to go up, but will be soon, and if you wish to take the two week trial, for just £5, you can find out more at the link below...
EPSOM DASH. There are some trends/stats up for this race. Just click the ‘Blog’ Tab above and you will see it down the left hand side.
Hawkeyethenoo – 1 point EW– 12/1 (BF/BV/Lad/Coral/WH) 4 places
Some of you may remember me having a stab at this one last time out, at loftier odds. As it happened he ran well for me – eye catching in a way – he tracked the low numbers but from half way switched around them and came up the middle of the track – that day at York low was definitely riding faster and the low numbers dominated, as did all those on the pace – nothing came back really and he was left a bit marooned. It was his first run of the season and looking through his form he has run some belters on his second start after a break.
This is a high class horse – and I know he is 10 – but that last run, and some last season, indicate he retains plenty of ability – especially at this level. It is hard to know where to start with him – he has won off much higher marks. Last May 2015 he came a closing/close/trouble-in-running 3rd in the Victoria Cup – one of the most competitive 7f handicaps run all season. That was under this jockey and when taking account of claims was off OR86 – in effect he is off OR83 here. He is also, with the claim, 6lb below the run last time out.
That last race was a competitive C2 handicap – it hasn’t worked out particularly well – 0/12 the runners to have run since – but it was a deeper race than this. Looking through his form I believe this is the first time since APRIL 2010 – that he hasn’t run in a C1 Listed, Group race, or a C2 big field handicap – and that was a C4, when he was making his way up. This is his first run in a C3 and I would like to think he could get competitive in this weaker C3 race.
He loves to hear his hooves rattle – a proper good to firm horse – and he gets that ground here. He is versatile also – he still has the speed for 5f (to get competitive anyway), 6f and has won at 7f and beyond this. Stamina isn’t going to be an excuse and he was doing all his best work late at York, over 6f. He has placed at the track- nearly won – and placed under this jockey – i do find it interesting that he is back up in the saddle.
This is important because I don’t think there is much natural speed in this race. I think that will allow him to sit more handy than usual and what prominent runners exist, are around him/his side. In any case, his sheer ability/class/speed may just take him closer to the pace anyway, against inferior opposition than he is used to facing.
Every box is ticked here – bar I suppose trainer form – but he had one place at Hamilton yesterday and while he is 0/19 in the last 14 days, 30% have placed – and Jim Goldie is a ‘fascinating’ trainer’- I am not sure if they are ever really in or out of form as the odd one pops up at a big price out the blue etc – in any case, this one ran a fine race LTO and should come on for it. Also, no trainer in here is in great form and something has to win!
Given I got myself in a position to back him LTO, I couldn’t see how I could leave him here in this C3. 12/1 was more than fair and I would like to think he will be backed. I would be surprised if he wasn’t in the mix, if he runs his race, hence the EW 4 places – +2 points if he does place at worse. Surprise Surprise the field of 18 is down to 16 already – bastads – and you know full well it will now go down to 15! So, it will be 3 places, but my money is down so there we go.
Of the rest…
Well I am not going to go into too much detail and if something else wins will say why I didnt like them. The chances of Free Code and Slemy stand out, but they were 7/1 which in the context of a race like this felt short enough. FC was poor LTO and needs to leave that behind and is 0/7,0 places with 12+ runners – but he is a CD winner and a C3 winner. He may not be too far away. Slemy won well LTO having had to wait an age for a run. This is a step up in class and he will need to improve again. I don’t think you will want to be too far off the pace here – unless you have a lot in hand/abundant class when it wouldn’t matter as much. Burn The Boats is one to track I think – some ok Irish form and this trainer may well win a decent pot with him this season- more to come – but he needs to step up on his first two starts for the yard. Today may be the day but at the same price as the selection I was happy to leave. But, he is in the tracker given his profile – worth a look. Plucky Dip is one of the few who comes here on the back of a win, so is interesting, but is 0/10.3 places Good to Firm, 1/18 on the flat (1st win LTO,may build on it) 0/14,4 places OR81+, 0/14, 2 places on a straight track – a few things to prove. The rest, to my eye, have even more on their plate. The Hills horse is in the ‘could be anything category’ but this kind of race will be a whole new experience – he may relish it but not the profile I want to take a single figure price on, personally. He could be smart in time and show it today, but lots of ifs.
So, really, if Hawkeyethenoo repeats his Victoria Cup run of last May, or his run at Ascot 5 starts ago, or even maybe his last run – then I struggle to see him being far away here – oh what the heck – clearly, if he repeats that Victoria Cup run, he is winning this, and winning it well. BUT, age may be catching up with him and this may be more his level. Maybe his ability is now on the wain and he is just a one-paced beast – but I will take one more chance on him here. I have bet £20 EW (1 point EW for me, £40 total) – I feel confident, but not to the extent where I won’t follow my staking advice! 🙂 (the wheelbarrow has been put back in the shed- and until I return to some form 2 points will be max, and 1 point on the win side will be max also)
3.00 Catt – Irish Cailin (18/1<) DNQ (20/1)
3.25 MR – Gold Ingot (12/1<) WON 6/1>5/1 (unsure of bigger last evening)
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
5.50 Epsom: Kings Pavillion WON 14/1>10/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
7.00 Bath – Farleigh Mac – 16/1 – an interesting newcomer for A Balding here – I am dealing with small numbers but I found it interesting that he has only sent 4 first time out 2 year olds here in the last 5 years – 3 of them have places, one has won – I think that was this season. He is well drawn and while a lot of his breeding suggests he will want further in time, there is the odd bit of speed dotted about. The profit for those stats here is +17 points – suggesting that the market wasn’t really a guide as to his winner – albeit any drift away from this price would be a concern. His runners are going ok, albeit you couldn’t say he was in hot form – but he has a big string and runs a lot of horses and that is the way it can go – similar to O’Meara I suppose who in the last few days has banged in quite a few having given the impression they were out of form – they may not have been – maybe more cyclical with the bigger yards, much like my betting. But, I did want another piece to the jigsaw and using HRB i can see that with this jockey, in non handicaps, in the last 730 days, they are 4/21, 7 places. So, something else to go on there. Those in here that have had a run don’t look up to much. Clive Cox has had juvenile winners this season but both of those had a run already. It looks open enough, with no big stand out – 3/1 the field – he may bomb, we shall see. Personally, I have had £10 on the nose to win, 1/2 a point for me.
9.00 Bath – Maer Rocks – 12/1 (albeit as I write a 12/1 non runner so may come down a tad) – A glance at the trusted TTP guide shows me that before this season Tregoning was 5/13,8 places, +13 points here with his handicappers over 10f. With that record I find it interesting that this well related fillie makes her handicap/seasonal debut here. Now, Tregoning isn’t prolific with either of those types but he does have winners – 2/14,6 places handicap debutants last year (4/32,10 places last 2 years) (he is 0/2,0 places at Bath mind) And in handicaps he can ready one after a 121-365 day break – 16/128,40 places. His horses are going ok – 1/6 in the last 2 weeks, he doesnt run loads and I don’t think will ever ‘bang them in’ but a good enough sign. He is 4/12,6 places with all his runners at Bath in the last year. The jockey is in fine form and rides the track well – the stats suggest that in any case. This one is related to a few graded animals and steps up in trip from her maidens – all interesting. So, at 12s, given all the above, I was happy to have a nibble. Those distance stats for this trainer, at this track, look like they will pay over-time, in any case.
That is all for this section. I have some Epsom notes I sent to Donations Club Members that I will have a look through soon and see if anything comes up on the micro angle/draw/trainer stats.
There were some shorter priced horses that stand out – especially Simcock at Donny, and even more so Simcock and Spencer at Donny – but too short for this section, but that doesn’t mean they are not value – maybe worth a look. (I haven’t backed them and doubt I will be)
Also NOTE At Goodwood that 1st time out 2 year olds are 7/223 before this season started! There are two such races I believe and not many with experience – Johnston has one around 9/4, and in the race after a couple also. Again, not races I will play in, but I know some of you may like to glance at those. Clearly takes a special unraced 2 year old to win there, and if any of them do it they may be worth following – if they can handle that track 1st time up they are clearly well built/balanced animals.
TO NOTE: TIPS, if there are any (I am sure there will be!) for the Epsom Dash SHOULD be up by 5pm this evening – I am out for the evening and I am not sure if the mind will be fully functional tomorrow – a trip to Alma De Cuba maybe 🙂 – so I really do need to get that done this afternoon. The ground is a bit tricky at the track and I have yet to set eyes on the race but we shall see if anything stands out. We will be playing with profits from Haykeyethenoo in any case! (all about the positive mindset)
Write up for the tipping race on its way…