Members Report: 03/06/16 (COMPLETE)

 

EPSOM DASH TIP 

Mukaynis – 1 point EW4 places  18/1 (racebets) 16/1 (BoyleS/SJ/LadB/Betway) 14/1 (general, inc 5 places with SkyB and BetfairS) 

That will be the only tip for this race. Tomorrow’s post about to be compiled (2.52 as I write) 

***

Well, where to start…

  1. I have been rather confident and bullish about the last two tips and they have both under-performed, performing way below my expectations. Those kind of runs, when you are having a bumpy time of things, are dejecting. No escape from that. Must do better. But, we/I soldier on. I am not doing anything differently than previously- an approach that has worked fine since mid 2014 on this blog – but,clearly I need to step up, maybe a service/change of oil is needed 🙂 
  2. Wheelbarrow Gate‘…it appears my use of the wheelbarrow phrase has irked some of you good folk. That was a phrase I have used before, to express a certain level of confidence, which is expressed in the staking amount. Most tips are 1 point win (and until i get back into some form probably should be for the foreseeable future) and when I go 2 or 3 points, that phrase sometimes is embedded in the write up. The staking advice is the advice, and as with everything on here what you do with it is up to you BUT…
  3. It is betting – and I am not sure I need to say this but some of you feel I should – nothing is certain, there is an amount of risk and you should only ever bet what you can afford to lose. If at any point you feel like you are losing control etc there are people that can help, and I am more than happy to point you in their direction. I have mentioned numerous times that if following my advice (tips or systems) you should have the appropriate betting banks – 80-100 points should be fine for the tips, and if following all systems then at least 100 I think just for those. The key is always to start small and build up stakes/bank and ensure that your betting is fun and enjoyable. It is hard to make money in this game, we wouldn’t all be here if it was easy. 
  4. Final point: If there is anything in my presence on these pages which gives the impression that I couldn’t giving a toss about you, my readers and loyal contributors, then I am a bit lost for words. My whole purpose is to try and offer something engaging, that makes your betting fun, enjoyable and with any luck profitable – over time. I read every comment, every email, respond to most where applicable, and in general am here to politely moan at/share ideas with. Financially – I bet all tips to £20 per point and most of the systems – in recent weeks I have open, gaping wounds – you feel pain, I feel it too, and I work bloody hard to try and improve. Right, that’s that. 

(no one needs to make any comments in regards to the above, if you did feel the need, let’s discuss some horses…) 

***

GEEGEEZ GOLD 

I read an article from Matt over at Geegeez where he explained that they had had all kinds of trouble with paypal and the payment system for Geegeez Gold – I think that happened just as I was telling you all to sign up for the trial!

Anyway, I believe those problems are solved now – their new system means you don’t have to have a paypal account/pay via paypal. 

The price has yet to go up, but will be soon, and if you wish to take the two week trial, for just £5, you can find out more at the link below...

YOU CAN TRIAL GEEGEEZ GOLD FOR TWO WEEKS HERE>>>

***

EPSOM DASH. There are some trends/stats up for this race. Just click the ‘Blog’ Tab above and you will see it down the left hand side. 

***

TIPS

7.40 Doncaster

Hawkeyethenoo – 1 point EW– 12/1 (BF/BV/Lad/Coral/WH) 4 places

Some of you may remember me having a stab at this one last time out, at loftier odds. As it happened he ran well for me – eye catching in a way – he tracked the low numbers but from half way switched around them and came up the middle of the track – that day at York low was definitely riding faster and the low numbers dominated, as did all those on the pace – nothing came back really and he was left a bit marooned. It was his first run of the season and looking through his form he has run some belters on his second start after a break. 

This is a high class horse – and I know he is 10 – but that last run, and some last season, indicate he retains plenty of ability – especially at this level. It is hard to know where to start with him – he has won off much higher marks. Last May 2015 he came a closing/close/trouble-in-running 3rd in the Victoria Cup – one of the most competitive 7f handicaps run all season. That was under this jockey and when taking account of claims was off OR86 – in effect he is off OR83 here. He is also, with the claim, 6lb below the run last time out. 

That last race was a competitive C2 handicap – it hasn’t worked out particularly well – 0/12 the runners to have run since – but it was a deeper race than this. Looking through his form I believe this is the first time since APRIL 2010 – that he hasn’t run in a C1 Listed, Group race, or a C2 big field handicap – and that was a C4, when he was making his way up. This is his first run in a C3 and I would like to think he could get competitive in this weaker C3 race. 

He loves to hear his hooves rattle – a proper good to firm horse – and he gets that ground here. He is versatile also – he still has the speed for 5f (to get competitive anyway), 6f and has won at 7f and beyond this. Stamina isn’t going to be an excuse and he was doing all his best work late at York, over 6f. He has placed at the track- nearly won – and placed under this jockey – i do find it interesting that he is back up in the saddle. 

This is important because I don’t think there is much natural speed in this race. I think that will allow him to sit more handy than usual and what prominent runners exist, are around him/his side. In any case, his sheer ability/class/speed may just take him closer to the pace anyway, against inferior opposition than he is used to facing. 

Every box is ticked here – bar I suppose trainer form – but he had one place at Hamilton yesterday and while he is 0/19 in the last 14 days, 30% have placed – and Jim Goldie is a ‘fascinating’ trainer’- I am not sure if they are ever really in or out of form as the odd one pops up at a big price out the blue etc – in any case, this one ran a fine race LTO and should come on for it. Also, no trainer in here is in great form and something has to win! 

Given I got myself in a position to back him LTO, I couldn’t see how I could leave him here in this C3. 12/1 was more than fair and I would like to think he will be backed. I would be surprised if he wasn’t in the mix, if he runs his race, hence the EW 4 places – +2 points if he does place at worse. Surprise Surprise the field of 18 is down to 16 already – bastads – and you know full well it will now go down to 15! So, it will be 3 places, but my money is down so there we go. 

Of the rest…

Well I am not going to go into too much detail and if something else wins will say why I didnt like them. The chances of Free Code and Slemy stand out, but they were 7/1 which in the context of a race like this felt short enough. FC was poor LTO and needs to leave that behind and is 0/7,0 places with 12+ runners – but he is a CD winner and a C3 winner. He may not be too far away. Slemy won well LTO having had to wait an age for a run. This is a step up in class and he will need to improve again. I don’t think you will want to be too far off the pace here – unless you  have a lot in hand/abundant class when it wouldn’t matter as much. Burn The Boats is one to track I think – some ok Irish form and this trainer may well win a decent pot with him this season- more to come – but he needs to step up on his first two starts for the yard. Today may be the day but at the same price as the selection I was happy to leave. But, he is in the tracker given his profile – worth a look. Plucky Dip is one of the few who comes here on the back of a win, so is interesting, but is 0/10.3 places Good to Firm, 1/18 on the flat (1st win LTO,may build on it) 0/14,4 places OR81+, 0/14, 2 places on a straight track – a few things to prove. The rest, to my eye, have even more on their plate. The Hills horse is in the ‘could be anything category’ but this kind of race will be a whole new experience – he may relish it but not the profile I want to take a single figure price on, personally. He could be smart in time and show it today, but lots of ifs. 

So, really, if Hawkeyethenoo repeats his Victoria Cup run of last May, or his run at Ascot 5 starts ago, or even maybe his last run – then I struggle to see him being far away here – oh what the heck – clearly, if he repeats that Victoria Cup run, he is winning this, and winning it well. BUT, age may be catching up with him and this may be more his level. Maybe his ability is now on the wain and he is just a one-paced beast – but I will take one more chance on him here. I have bet £20 EW (1 point EW for me, £40 total) – I feel confident, but not to the extent where I won’t follow my staking advice! 🙂 (the wheelbarrow has been put back in the shed- and until I return to some form 2 points will be max, and 1 point on the win side will be max also)  

Good Luck.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainer 

3.00 Catt – Irish Cailin (18/1<) DNQ (20/1) 

Jumps Handicappers

3.25 MR – Gold Ingot (12/1<) WON 6/1>5/1 (unsure of bigger last evening) 

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

5.50 Epsom: Kings Pavillion WON 14/1>10/1 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

7.00 Bath – Farleigh Mac – 16/1 – an interesting newcomer for A Balding here – I am dealing with small numbers but I found it interesting that he has only sent 4 first time out 2 year olds here in the last 5 years – 3 of them have places, one has won – I think that was this season. He is well drawn and while a lot of his breeding suggests he will want further in time, there is the odd bit of speed dotted about. The profit for those stats here is +17 points – suggesting that the market wasn’t really a guide as to his winner – albeit any drift away from this price would be a concern. His runners are going ok, albeit you couldn’t say he was in hot form – but he has a big string and runs a lot of horses and that is the way it can go – similar to O’Meara I suppose who in the last few days has banged in quite a few having given the impression they were out of form – they may not have been – maybe more cyclical with the bigger yards, much like my betting. But, I did want another piece to the jigsaw and using HRB i can see that with this jockey, in non handicaps, in the last 730 days, they are 4/21, 7 places. So, something else to go on there. Those in here that have had a run don’t look up to much. Clive Cox has had juvenile winners this season but both of those had a run already. It looks open enough, with no big stand out – 3/1 the field – he may bomb, we shall see. Personally, I have had £10 on the nose to win, 1/2 a point for me. 

9.00 Bath – Maer Rocks – 12/1 (albeit as I write a 12/1 non runner so may come down a tad) – A glance at the trusted TTP guide shows me that before this season Tregoning was 5/13,8 places, +13 points here with his handicappers over 10f. With that record I find it interesting that this well related fillie makes her handicap/seasonal debut here. Now, Tregoning isn’t prolific with either of those types but he does have winners – 2/14,6 places handicap debutants last year (4/32,10 places last 2 years) (he is 0/2,0 places at Bath mind) And in handicaps he can ready one after a 121-365 day break – 16/128,40 places. His horses are going ok – 1/6 in the last 2 weeks, he doesnt run loads and I don’t think will ever ‘bang them in’ but a good enough sign. He is 4/12,6 places with all his runners at Bath in the last year. The jockey is in fine form and rides the track well – the stats suggest that in any case. This one is related to a few graded animals and steps up in trip from her maidens – all interesting. So, at 12s, given all the above, I was happy to have a nibble. Those distance stats for this trainer, at this track, look like they will pay over-time, in any case. 

That is all for this section. I have some Epsom notes I sent to Donations Club Members that I will have a look through soon and see if anything comes up on the micro angle/draw/trainer stats.

There were some shorter priced horses that stand out – especially Simcock at Donny, and even more so Simcock and Spencer at Donny – but too short for this section, but that doesn’t mean they are not value – maybe worth a look. (I haven’t backed them and doubt I will be) 

Also NOTE At Goodwood that 1st time out 2 year olds are 7/223 before this season started! There are two such races I believe and not many with experience – Johnston has one around 9/4, and in the race after a couple also. Again, not races I will play in, but I know some of you may like to glance at those. Clearly takes a special unraced 2 year old to win there, and if any of them do it they may be worth following – if they can handle that track 1st time up they are clearly well built/balanced animals. 

***

TO NOTE: TIPS, if there are any (I am sure there will be!) for the Epsom Dash SHOULD be up by 5pm this evening – I am out for the evening and I am not sure if the mind will be fully functional tomorrow – a trip to Alma De Cuba maybe 🙂 – so I really do need to get that done this afternoon. The ground is a bit tricky at the track and I have yet to set eyes on the race but we shall see if anything stands out. We will be playing with profits from Haykeyethenoo in any case! (all about the positive mindset) 

Write up for the tipping race on its way…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

48 Comments

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  • Well said. You can’t say any more than that. I am certain that the majority will not need those words but there is always a minority that get carried away or lose control. I understand completely that you shouldn’t feel the need to repeat such consise statements with every tip but may be a smaller comment along side very confident tips wouldn’t go amiss in the future. For the minority and any newcomers. Again sorry to anger you Josh I know it is very disappointing when a confident selection goes down especially if in a bad run too.

    Jim 02/06/16 5:28 PM Reply


    • Oops sorry again. For balance and as requested. Arod and minding are clearly the best horses in their respected races tomorrow. But with ground and other circumstances in minding so case I would not risk too much on either a small fun wager in the sprint would probably be a better idea.

      Jim 02/06/16 5:35 PM Reply


      • i bet against fav at epson

        Pab 03/06/16 10:20 AM Reply


    • No need to apologise Jim, you said what you were thinking in a polite way, and the day such comments are unwelcome is the day we all give up. But yes, the ‘not caring’ comment did irk me a little bit haha. Moving on!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 6:12 PM Reply


  • Josh you are having the same problems as me. I have backed several horses recently that had everything in their favour.
    None have performed anywhere near like they should have. I spend hours checking everything to make sure everything is ok.
    Today I backed Classic Flyer. Was backed overnight and I struggled to get the price.this morning. About an hour before the race
    it drifted like a barge on Betfair. I knew then it would not win. It didnt and after getting a good position early Shelley Birkett just let it drift back.
    Didnt look like it was wanted.
    Almost every horse I have backed big this season has followed the same pattern. Backed and then drifting just before the race.
    If horses that have their ideal conditions cant win then I dont know what method I can use.
    I have been backing horses for over 60 years and I have never known it so bad as now. I am convinced Betfair has a lot to do with it.
    People in the know being able to lay horses. I didnt think I would ever think like this,
    I have backed LINKS DRIVE LADY 7.50 Goodwood tomorrow. Taken 11/1 to win 4 figures. See what this can do.

    John Gorton 02/06/16 6:34 PM Reply


    • Yeh, it is totally strange of late & agree that is has something to do with Betfair & the exchanges, the whole game has changed…

      For some bizarre reason I have been doing really well with 2yo’s this season, a lot of what I do is very last minute, like when Boater hot fav got beat by a R Fahey 33/1 shot in a race he had a bit of history in won once placed another, he was 40/s on Betdaq. The fav was too short & this was too big & it seems to be happening a lot this year, I can’t remember having so many 2yo winners & I’ve been at it for 30 years but

      I have been experimenting with trading this year…. I back horses early that there has already been a move for go to bookie offering best odds & hope that there will be more money for during day & I can Lay at lower odds later, worked fine for a while but these last couple of weeks have noticed at least once a day one of these horses I’ve backed will drift like a barge & keep drifting through race no run whatsoever & no hope of getting matched.. Have had to stop realising that early money isn’t such a good sign while I work out a better approach.

      That better approach suggests 20/s about Seventh Heaven is OK

      Andy Silvers 03/06/16 7:34 AM Reply


    • Ah sorry to hear that John – I would like to hear more positive news, but at the same time it is comforting to know I am not the only one! 🙂 The systems are struggling, but everything else is ok. Tips only -14.5 points for May – no biggie, they were still +110 points for 2016 at end of May. And my new approach to the Stats/Angles section was on +12 before this month started.
      We all just have to keep chipping away – it will turn, and what has worked in the past will work again – albeit in the context of your Betfair point, maybe some added caution.
      Good luck with LDL

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:48 AM Reply


    • interesting horse but poor draw,

      Pab 03/06/16 10:23 AM Reply


  • Josh keep up the good work it’s a marathon not a sprint

    Tomo 02/06/16 7:27 PM Reply


    • Cheers Tomo. That it is, very well said!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:48 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Go have a night out at Alma de Cuba.
    Come back put the old tin hat on and carry on doing what you’re doing .
    You know it will come round. Look at Sotd on Geegeez this time last year couldn’t pick a loser then the bad patch .All in life is a big circle just keep at it.

    David 02/06/16 7:57 PM Reply


    • Thanks David, that I may well do this evening! Yep, I follow Geegeez SOTD, and it has had a tough time but is coming around again – and it was due a bad patch after having a very good time of it for a period last year. You can’t keep quality at bay for long!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • I backed GOLD BEAU early yesterday evening at 8s just read your write up about it couldn’t agreed more with it thought it was a really good bet I flagged up on geegeez forum told me mum to have a couple a quid on it only to get home from work and watch the replay to see it was not running a race at all but that racing there will be plenty of horse like that will lose and win you just got to keep your stakes sensible regardless of confidence with yourself or anyone else’s advice just stay diciplined

    Antony 02/06/16 8:29 PM Reply


    • Yep, that is how it goes – everything looked right on paper and if you keep waiting for horses like that, with that same approach, we/you will do fine long term, enough will go in. Discipline and patience.

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:57 AM Reply


  • Josh , as well as your tips what anyone with any sense should have are there own little methods to keep things ticking over. Ive survived your tips and stats during this barren period by utilising what I call strongform outliers. The race Roys Legacy ran in at Thirsk last month has provided winners at 8/1 7/1 12/1 7/4 since the form was ratified in a sprint at Carlisle. Couple of them declared at Newcastle on Saturday .Another point, here we are in Derby week and you are still tipping 13y/o 3ml chasers. I would say that summer nh racing other than the odd valuable race is full of bad horses in bad races and it normally doesnt get a penny of my money. The period you have just come through is transitional regarding form and the class of animal appearing. My old dad bless him a punter extrodanaire never used to have a bet between the National and the Guineas. But then over the ensuing 4 months he used to coin it it. “Look at them idiots son backing fav after fav and losing, ill show you different ways to skint the books”I continue to contribute cos I think your methods will eventually come good again. Just remember a good system doesnt neccesarily make a bad out of form horse good

    Tony Tolhurst 02/06/16 9:32 PM Reply


    • You talk a lot of sense there Tony and the way you put me tipping a 13yo chaser made me smile. And quite correct too it would seem! The systems have had a bad May,as will be seen when I update results,they are not based on form and many readers that follow them will use them as a guide, albeit collectively they need to come out in front to justify their inclusion. The two chases analysed before Carters Rest race were good,on paper,as was Gold Beau. It will turn, it has been a quiet March/April/May but tips are still over 100 points up for 2016 so not hitting any panic buttons. Your general point about summer jumping is correct though I think. But,I know summer jumps ttp users have been having fun. On we go. Good comment, always important to reflect.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 10:16 PM Reply


      • Very well said, Tony, was going to say ‘transitional period,’ there are ppl who wont bet on flat until after Ascot but like your ‘strongform outlier’ method, that is something I used when first got into racing, have found it harder since internet came along, maybe I should set aside an hour or two a week spent in the results section of my Weekenders, I have a mountain of them to my left where the bookcase used to be lol

        Andy Silvers 03/06/16 7:42 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Hope you keep the wheelbarrow ready, I think most of been struggling the last month it is the nature of the beast we call racing. Never bet more than you can afford to lose I treat it as my hobby. I bet 50th of my bank. To Martin and the other fine tipsters on here keep the tips and flowing. To Josh 100% support and thanks.
    Pattaya Wolf.

    Roy Bedford 03/06/16 3:55 AM Reply


    • Cheers, appreciated. We will keep soldiering on!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:51 AM Reply


  • Hi josh
    I would just like to say how I approach your advice.i am using it as a guide.
    1 I keep level stakes doesnt matter what’s said always level stakes (protect the bank)only lose what your comfortable with
    2 read what’s said on the tip.
    3 watch for your followers comments sometimes they bring up alternatives.
    4 research the race myself as with the systems how are they drawn what’s the competition like forecast etc.
    5 I only follow the systems I’m comfortable with ie if it only has a 22% win rate I know through a season there will be losing runs I use hrb to check losing sequences so I know what I’m getting into.
    6 if all this comes together I place the bet I’ve hit quite a few of your winners missed a couple and missed and hit quite a few losers.but I still have my bank I’m still in profit and I’m still subscribing.
    Last 3 days results
    3 winners 8/1. 7/2. 7/2
    4 places
    1 loser we all know which one that is lol.
    I’ve also missed a couple of your tips that won but there will be more.
    Keep up the good work

    Jamie 03/06/16 4:59 AM Reply


    • Hi Jamie, that sounds like a decent and logical approach to me, and sounds like it is working, so keep it up. I will keep trying to add to your own winning tally!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:51 AM Reply


  • Always surprises me when people talk about soft going at Epsom. Many years ago (im 690 used to go there regularly and speaking to some well known jockeys they told me that as Epsom is on Chalk layer the term soft was a bit of a misnomer.

    Ken 03/06/16 7:58 AM Reply


    • Ken, if you are that old, did you see Diomed? (lol).

      The first Derby I attended was Shergar beating Glint Of Gold where I had a tenner s/f at 10/1. When Shergar passed me he was five clear and ended up about a ten length winner. I was busy looking for John Matthias working his way through the rest on Ian Balding’s to get second.

      Richard Sutton 03/06/16 8:59 AM Reply


  • A wise man once told me, “History is in the past…”

    J.D. 03/06/16 8:05 AM Reply


    • That man was very wise!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:45 AM Reply


  • I did want to wait for the complete sign to go up before posting this comment up but time has beat me. Despite what I am about to write I think today is another typical quality blog post by Josh. Clear, consise and full of information. However I won’t be backing anything in the post. I am aware I haven’t posted much about the horses and generally commented about the blog and why I don’t donate and sometimes after the event. So here goes (cue a load of winners and egg on face) Hawkeyethenoo is well handicapped and the old boys can perform to a ripe old age in sprints ala bordlescott. I can see why Josh is going ew as I would be surprised if there isn’t a few younger improves in here who are also on a good mark. He may well place but you only need a few to come out to only get 3 places, not for me. The Balding newcomer? Personally I only back debutants if I have seen them in the paddock. Until the preliminaries all the reading into such races is pointless as there is not a lot to go on. The Tregoning horse is interesting and if I was backing this and it won I may donate as Josh’s write up on this race is something I would have otherwise missed. However looking a the race I think it looks competitive and tough to call, oh ok I’ll have a fiver for luck. Bar that I think most of the other race info you find in other free domains and is a big reason why I don’t donate + I probably only get on here 2\3 times a week so cannot follow tips for any length of time. Good luck I really do hope you a get a few winners.

    Jim 03/06/16 9:16 AM Reply


    • Morning Jim, your views on Donations are well versed 🙂 And we don’t need to go into those again. (you are in the majority)
      No-one is obliged to back anything on here and your reasoning is exactly what many others may well contemplate – you know exactly why I have put up a horse, and you have judged for yourself, using your knowledge etc to make an assessment -that is how it is meant to work. Albeit many will back the tips blind for example, and £5 per point on every one since Jan 1st would see you on about +£540..The stats are the stats, my interpretation is my interpretation. As you may/may not know – the Stats/Angles of Interest section is very much about THE horse put up – i look at the oppo more than I did before with the old version of that section (‘new approach since mid May) and don’t look at the oppo in same depth I would for the tipping race say.

      The winners will return, but it is all about having fun and long term profit (and ensuring the losses are not horrendous until the tide turns again)

      Good Luck

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:36 AM Reply


  • Josh, I really don’t think you have anything to apologise either for the tips or your narratives and I am sure that the majority will agree with that.

    You offer a free service with a donation option and there are a lot of “paid for” Tipsters that would die for the long term results that you achieve.

    I make no secret of the fact that I don’t trust the vast majority of paid Tipsters; or the big conglomerates who bombard you with hundreds of tips; and I use only those that proof somewhere truly independent, whose records I can check and monitor regularly.

    I trust only Racing Index in that respect and your record over the past few months is bettered only by 4-5 paid Tipsters on that excellent platform, whose Return On Investment (RI call it Profit on Turnover) averages around the 20% mark over 12 months and 30% over 6 months.

    I use a couple of them and you and one other FREE Tipster (Gary Priestley) to make a very nice consistent second income, so don’t beat yourself up as between you, you are not only decent Tipsters; but honest and forthright and it is that which makes you top notch!

    Ian 03/06/16 9:23 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ian – ah yes it was only an apology – well not even an apology, more a clarification – I won’t apologise for tips etc – I will if I did a half job on a race etc, and missed something, but I have long left those bad habits behind (on the whole) Yep you can do much worse than follow Gary, a superb value judge – just shows that SR isn’t everything – 10% or so isnt he? Means a bumpy ride at times but my word you do need a wheelbarrow for those profits – 160 points in may wasn’t it, and well past the 1200 mark over last year or more. Glad you have a portfolio/approach that works.

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:44 AM Reply


      • I agree about strike rate and it does my head in when tipsters who never back anything over 2/1 bang on about 40% strike rate – erm – that’s losing money.

        Yes, Gary does have long losing runs in terms of strike rate but get on early and he makes some outstanding profit from a strike rate of 10% and the paid Tipsters I use too have a refreshing approach by offering a short, medium and long priced tip each day to maximise potential profit.

        Two of my paid tipsters have made in excess of 100% profit on turnover on racing index in the past month with strike rates below 35% from about a dozen tips per month, contrast that with some other proofed services that have made a loss with a strike rate of over 50%.

        I know this is teaching a lot of people who read this blog to “suck eggs” but for me POT/ROI is always the true long term measure to look for!

        Keep up the great work

        Ian 03/06/16 9:50 AM Reply


    • Well put Ian.

      Richard Sutton 03/06/16 9:46 AM Reply


  • Josh,
    I have gone with your Epsom stats, Here goes for a good day at the telly.
    2.00 Sayesse, Nmkt lto
    2.35 Darshini drawn 7 1m 2f
    3.45 Bold Prediction Ches lto
    4.30 Turret Rocks nmkt lto
    5.15 Raucous, Scrutineer
    5.50 Kings Pavillion.

    Clear top weight
    Fire Fighting, Instant Attraction, Haalich, Custom Cut, Candalisa.

    All small stakes WHEELBARROW ready to collect, LOL.

    Mike Dennis 03/06/16 9:26 AM Reply


    • Good Luck Mike, we shall see if history repeats, and always tomorrow also!

      Josh Wright 03/06/16 9:41 AM Reply


    • 4.30 Turret Rocks my bet also

      Pab 03/06/16 10:32 AM Reply


      • Architecture ew for me

        the gambler 03/06/16 3:10 PM Reply


  • 3.45 Eps – M Channon’s Persun 16/s looking best cdg of the day, trainer bit out of form but stats here good & jockey’s OK too, horse won after a fair break last year.

    Andy Silvers 03/06/16 9:30 AM Reply


  • EHH there are some young uns on here.First Derby I attended was to watch the imperious L Piggot swoop on Sir Ivor. Bit sad really cos I had backed Connaught S Barclay/ N Murless ew for a big pay out.

    Tony Tolhurst 03/06/16 9:46 AM Reply


    • My first recollection of Derby when I started to get interested was Slip Anchor in 1985; still in my humble opinion the best Derby ride ever as Cauthan slipped the field round Tattenham Corner an the rest never got near him. My other favourite was the same Trainer/Jockey combo on Reference Point, a totally different horse who would lead and just step up a gear every time a horse came near it, I don’t think he has ever been given the credit he deserved.

      Trained of course by the legend Sir Henry Cecil whos career is like a roller coaster of triumph and adversity capped by the greatest horse of them all and I still wonder what he may have done round Epsom as a 3 year old in the Derby – we will never know.

      Ian 03/06/16 10:31 AM Reply


  • against fav at epson
    3:10
    TULLIUS

    4:30
    Turret Rocks

    5-15 EPSOM
    i think SCRUTINEER
    5-50 EPSOM
    STAMP HIL
    3:45 EPSOM
    Melvin The Grate
    Instant Attraction

    Pab 03/06/16 10:45 AM Reply


  • Timeform have just tweeted thyeir top 6 for the Derby: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkBZ7dSUgAEDhDW.jpg:large

    Andy Silvers 03/06/16 11:19 AM Reply


  • No should have read (obviously)69. Did see Sea Bird win the Derby my first visit to Epsom. Was also there when Charlottown,Mill Reef Snow Knight won as well as numerous others.
    One of the days I used to go and see each year was the Moet and Chandon amatuer riders race a meeting I thoroughly enjoyed, probably as I backed the winner on most occasions.
    Epsom for some strange reason is a course Ive done extremely well when attending but not so well (other than the Derby} when Im at home!

    Ken 03/06/16 11:49 AM Reply


    • A couple of the best there Ken, especially Sea Bird.

      Richard Sutton 03/06/16 11:56 AM Reply


  • Legendary Lunch first win after two days of misery 4/1 by Nose

    Pab 03/06/16 1:06 PM Reply


    • Well done, good job it was only 2 days!

      Chris 03/06/16 4:02 PM Reply


      • thanks even two wins today on 5 bets
        and escape from second club

        Pab 03/06/16 4:36 PM Reply


  • Arod NR, 20m before the off.

    the gambler 03/06/16 1:51 PM Reply


  • Gold ingot wanted to lead, led. And wanted to win, WON!
    Had a nibble, wheelbarrow for the winnings ; )

    the gambler 03/06/16 2:33 PM Reply


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