EPSOM DASH: TRENDS + STATS (complete)

EPSOM DASH 2016

19 renewals

315 runners, 70 placed horses

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 14/19… 2nd to 5th LTO
    • 14/120, 35 places…74% winners…38% runners…50% places
  • 1st: 0/34, 9 places

Horse Age

  • 3 yo: 0/28, 1 place
  • Even spread across the rest. Age 10+ … 0/8, 1 place

Days Since Run

  • Nothing of note

Horse Weight

  • Nothing of note

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing significant

Season Runs

  • 1 Only: 1/68, 15 places
  • 3 or 4: 12/19
    • 12/108, 24 places…63% winners…34% runners…34% places

Position In Market

  • 10/19 Top 3 in market. (10/60,22 places)
  • 17/19 Top 10 in market

Odds

  • 17/19 20/1 or shorter
    • But 2 winners, 20/1 plus, inc one 50/1 +

***

OTHER STATS

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 1-3: 4/43, 14 places… +36 SP
  • 4-7: 0/75, 9 places
  • 20: 0/9, 1 place
  • (even enough spread drawn 8-19)

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 19/19 had placed at least once in last 6 starts
    • Had not: 0/27, 2 places
  • 17/19 had placed on at least once of last 3 starts

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0: 0/10, 2 places
  • 8+ : 0/43, 11 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 0: 2/67, 9 places
  • 7+ : 0/26, 6 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 0 wins: 11/166, 32 places…

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 18/19 Top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
    • Did not: 1/107, 15 places

Class Move

  • Drop 1 or more: 0/29, 5 places

Jockey Claims

  • 5lb: 0/14, 3 places
  • 7lb: 0/6, 0 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)

  • AW: 0/12, 1 place

(LR) Odds

  • 28/1+ : 0/28, 3 places

(LR) Track (of interest)

  • Chester: 3/24, 6 places
  • York: 3/62, 12 places
  • Redcar: 2/4, 2 places
  • Kempton: 2/13, 3 places
  • Muss: 2/22, 3 places
  • Epsom: 0/12, 2 places
  • Lingfield: 0/10, 1 place
  • Haydock: 0/29, 4 places
  • Newmarket (Rowley): 0/20, 7 places

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Class

  • Class 6: 0/32, 0 places

***

Trainers (of interest)

  • D Nicholls: 5/48, 12 places
  • S C Williams: 2/7, 2 places
  • P Midgley: 1/4, 2 places
  • T D Barron: 0/5, 0 places
  • J Bradley: 0/8, 1 place
  • R Fahey: 0/9, 1 place

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    What do you make of the draw stats. I cant fathom a reason why stalls 4-7 would do worse than everything around it (I can understand 1-3 doing well but not 4-7 doing worse than 8 to 19). Seems like an anomaly to me but any thoughts would be appreciated.

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 02/06/16 1:07 PM Reply


    • Yep, could well be an anomaly and I wouldn’t want to get too stuck up on them if you like the price – pace could be the thing – 4-7 probably want to be up against the rail and could be a case that, if they dont get out/across – they get stuck behind the front 3, who move over – then you may get some 8+ coming over- may just be a traffic thing -or as you point out nothing at all but I thought it eye catching enough to mention it. I wont be starting with stalls 4-7 and putting a line through them!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 1:13 PM Reply


      • Ignore some of that thinking- stall 1 is far side isnt it. High drawn against the nearside rail. But, in that case the traffic argument could still be the issue, getting stuck behind horses maybe.

        Josh Wright 02/06/16 2:50 PM Reply


  • Think maybe its just a case of the horse with an upwards form trajectory running close to where the pace is and getting a good tow into the final furlong. Normally pick one of this type from each side of the draw and hope for the best.

    David Dickinson 02/06/16 1:24 PM Reply


    • sounds like a decent approach to me David, you can let us all know what takes your eye this year when you have picked a couple. I managed to pluck the winner out last year on here and for many reasons it would be nice to do it again! GL

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 1:28 PM Reply


  • I have a theory may be bo**o* but it is that drawn high you are right on the top of the camber and there is a definite ridge up there about 6 feet wide, drawn low you have a less sloping part of ground to run on but when fields are @20 – as the Dash normally is, in stalls 4-8 you are probably on the very steepest part of the slop and therefore very unbalanced over the majority of the race.

    I went and stood once at the 5 f pole and it was terrifying to see just how much the ground falls away and how steep the initial section is.

    Ian 02/06/16 4:23 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    With the recent rains changing the way the races are panning out I’ve decided on Normal Equilibrium and Makaynis as my 2 against the field. Neither will be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions and both have the pace to lay up as I don’t think anything will be coming from out the back. Granted luck in running.
    Good luck if your playing

    David Dickinson 03/06/16 7:04 PM Reply


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