Members Report: 02/06/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW REPORT ALERT:-

I have pulled together 6 of my previous articles written for The Betting Insiders Club. There is an intro which explains more but at 35 pages and 14,680 ‘words’ (blimey,longer than my dissertation,an increasingly long time ago now!) it should give you all something to get stuck into. The articles are a mixture of trainer stats pieces, my approach to 3m+ chases, profiling etc. The contents have never been published on this blog so it will all be new to your eyes I think.

Enjoy… (and let me know if you like what you read…always open to suggestions for areas to explore…)

MY BETTING INSIDERS ARTICLES CAN BE READ HERE>>>

***

Epsom Notes: Just to say that I will be emailing out some Epsom Notes to Donation Club members by lunchtime on Thursday, so do look out for that if you are in that club. There are a few trainer snippets, albeit nothing overly stand out – but in the handicaps in particular some good ‘draw’ pointers. Just want to finish off the non-handicap section. 

I will get the trends for The Dash up on Thursday also, and endeavour to complete the Summer AW TTP Report. 

 

***

TIPS

4.30 Hamilton 

Gold Beau – 2 points win – 13/2 (PP/BetF/ToteS) 6/1 general UP 11/2 – my general struggle goes on – he drifted out again from 7/2 which was concerning and it was over after the first couple of furlongs to me – never traveled really – very disappointing that run. 

Well I started to write up this one’s chance in the ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ section below but, having then had more of a proper look at the oppo, it became apparent as to this ones chance and it is a sprint handicap, the horse looks a value price to my eye (was 7s generally when I started looking) and it would have been a case of bottling it if I failed to tip him here.

Some stats – My TTP guide tells me the trainer is 5/18,12p here with handicappers in the last 3 seasons, and geegeez reports tell me trainer and jockey are 4/6 when teaming up at the track with all runners. 3 of those are on this horse I think – the jockey is 5/15,6 places on him in flat handicaps. He hasn’t ridden him in a while. Interesting.His profile chance also shows up well in the IE reports against these.

The horse – well he has effectively won off OR70 in the past (taking account of 5lb claim – so OR75 on paper) and is only 2lb above his last winning mark, which was here. He loves it rattling quick – unlike a few in here who are unproven on good to firm/have proved they don’t really like it – He is 3/7, 4 places at Hamilton AND of most interest is that in handicaps, when he goes off 6/1 or shorter, he is 5/7, 5 places. All wins when 6/1 or shorter. SO, that is important – the market looks like this will be the case,albeit he has placed at bigger odds so all hope isn’t lost if he doesn’t come in. . But, it will be boosted if he goes off shorter, which part of me thinks he will do. 

 PACE – he races prominently and there are no out and out front runners in here (the Fife horse may try and use stamina if he starts on terms) so no excuses there – should be in the box seat. The last piece left is Trainer Form- I am starting to put more and more focus on this, and wanting to see little green numbers next to the trainers name on the geegeez cards – this one doesn’t have those but two of her last 5 runners have placed at least, in the last 2 weeks.

He just has a lot going for him and it was screaming a 2 pointer at me. We shall see if that is well placed confidence or not come 4.35. I will be bitterly disappointed, bordering on dejection, if this one doesn’t go very close.

What of the oppo-

Inexes looks like he want’s further and I can’t think this drop in trip will help, on how he has run and his breeding- it is a stiff 6 here and they may try and make use of him but he is now 0/7,2p in career and he hasn’t been running that great recently. Salvatore Fury is a danger but is short enough and you can take him on based on his price alone. Thankfully for us he also has a few things to prove – firstly he doesn’t appear in brilliant form – running ok but not as if about to bound in and they keep messing with the trip. He is a CD winner but all flat handicap wins have come in the C5 band below this – C5<3.5k.. 0/4,0 places in this C5 and 0/12,3 places C4 or above. All wins at the lower C5 level or below. All wins are when returning within 15 days of last run also – 0/12,3 places 1660 days-in turf handicaps. The trainer is also blowing hot and cold also. Now, he is 3/6,6 places when Fav, so that has going for him – but he does have chinks, in the context of his price. 

Keenes Point is 1/21 on turf and has a few questions to answer – he does like placing a lot, including here, but he is just hard to win with. If the money does come for the stablemate, surely he wont be spoiling the party! His only win was also in C6. Star Cracker has enough to prove inc class/going/distance and isn’t in form. I can’t have him but these Goldie horses are mercurial beasts so I suppose anything is possible!! Interesting that Lee isn’t on him, I think. 

What’s left of the other three on the card also have plenty to prove and based on their form or their profile or trainer form, or a mixture of all three, I can’t have them here. 

So, everything looks set for an almighty run for this one. I think he is a couple of points too big based on his chance against this lot/suitability for conditions, and I am more than comfortable recommending getting the wheelbarrow out. 

Right, Onto FFos Las

7pm .

NO Tips in this race…it is far too competitive – looking through my notes and I like there to be a few X next to horses names – and I don’t really have any – in terms of profiles/suitability for race conditions it is hard to dismiss any really – albeit a couple have stamina questions, some look out of sorts. King Massini looks interesting but ran poorly LTO, before the error and is 0/13,0 places going off above 13/2- Cork Citizen is in the could be anything category and you could take a chance at 16s, Pipe will find the key at some point – and the rest take it in turns really with a few characters dotted about – all of the Top 4 have a decent chance if putting best foot forward. Just a bit too much of a puzzle. 

That is all, tipping wise. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers

2.30 Ham: Groundworker (18/1<) UP 11/4 >7/4

3.30 Ham: Bushtiger (any odds) UP 18/1 (interesting ride/race from him,suspect Ruth will find the key soon!)

4.00 Ham: Ellaal (any odds) UP 15/2 

Other 

J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)

8.10 Kemp: Up In Lights 

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

2.30 Ham: Little Belter (any odds) 2nd 8/1 

3.50 Rip: Indy (16/1<) NR

4.40 Ling: St Patricks Day (9/1<) NR

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None Today. Had a good look and nothing jumping out at a price. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

49 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, really looking forward to Red Baron tackling the Dash on Saturday. With a half decent draw tomorrow at declarations he will have a realistic chance. If he gets his usual break from the stalls then I expect him to lead early and go straight to the rail. He is in great form and the ground will be fine and although we don’t know how he will come down the hill he is undoubtedly very fast and on this track that should playto his strengths. The Midgeley horses will be hard to beat and there are plenty with Epsom and ‘Dash’ form but at the current 16/1 he represents a very fair EW call.

    John w 01/06/16 8:30 PM Reply


    • Good stuff John – I have yet to have a glance but wish you and the team all the luck – it would be nice to see him blast up the rail to victory – and would be deserved. Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 8:33 AM Reply


  • I’ve had a bet @16/1, before the price finally goes, on Massaat for the Derby. With two seconds in G1s, going into the race, he has strong credentials and if he wasn’t trained by the rookie, Owen Burrows, he would surely be shorter. Has a lovely pedigree for the trip and the soft going will be perfect.

    Chris 01/06/16 9:05 PM Reply


    • 2nd choice of Steve Miller doing dosage analysis in Weekender this week, he goes for Cloth Of Stars but I like the price of yours…

      Andy Silvers 02/06/16 8:59 AM Reply


      • I am a bit surprised Massaat figures so well in the doseage of Steve Miller. Teofilio is out of Gallileo so he will get a fair bit of stamina off his sire but Madany, the dam, is a speed bred 6f horse. Hanagan felt the horse had a chance of staying but the trainer stated after the guineas it might get a mile and a quarter. He does have group one form but i would be surprised it getting home at Epsom. Teofilios also appear to prefer quick ground. Epsom dries quick(chalk downs) so i can see it being good or good to soft on Saturday. A very open derby with a lot of ponderables.

        Roddo 02/06/16 9:16 AM Reply


        • According to Ben Aitken’s dosage figures from his blog, Massaat isn’t bad but at least six others with better dosage figuresincluding Cloth of Stars. Got to love statistics!

          Nick Mazur 02/06/16 12:53 PM Reply


          • Oh dear, particularly shoddy article imho by Steve Miller basing whole thing around one set of figures that barely produced 3 of the last ten winners. I thought it strange, Acclamation as dam-sire average winning distance of progeny 7 furlongs, I can’t see anything similar in last 20 Derby winners, Massaat also only has 8 dosage points, lowest for at least 10 years. & you wouldn’t have had Sea The Stars with Mr Miller’s method, he would have been the shortest runner in the field this year? So the dosage is not an exact science but

            Looking further back in Massaat’s pedigree he does have Ahonoora (sire of Dr Devious) & Alleged (dam-sire of Dr Devious) on his dam’s side, who were the parents of 1992 winner Dr Devious.

            Andy Silvers 02/06/16 5:51 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Thanks for the report. Interesting read as always. There is a 3m chase tomorrow at Ffos Llas but looks highly competitive so I have stayed clear even if King Massini is potentially over priced.

    Going through a rough patch (seems like everyone is) but three I like tomorrow are Classic Flyer Hamilton 14:30, Gold Beau Hamilton 16:30 and Complicit Kempton 20:10

    Nick Mazur 01/06/16 11:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick. Yep agree about chase having looked at it for 15 mins or so – wasnt getting anywhere on first glance through runners – Gold Beau – what price was he last night? Hoping you say 7s across the board and not 10s or something!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 7:47 AM Reply


      • I only the 8s around 10pm although B365 opened up at 10s although not sure how long that price was available.

        Nick Mazur 02/06/16 8:17 AM Reply


  • Bollocks, the day I have a lie in…looks like the market agrees on Gold Beau

    Paul 02/06/16 7:34 AM Reply


    • 5s (betfred/Tote/Racebets) is still around and just about ok – I will have to record it at that price I think given bigger prices were not around long!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 7:46 AM Reply


      • the price was there, Josh (opened at 10s on 365 last night according to oddschecker)…don’t think anyone will have a problem if you book it at advised price. I certainly won’t.

        Paul 02/06/16 7:52 AM Reply


  • Gold Beau down to 5/1 and only 5.6 on Betfair. I rarely get the odds on your selections! Clearly the site is on a lot of bettors’ radars………

    Geoff 02/06/16 7:38 AM Reply


    • Nope, that isnt me I don’t think – rarely in recent weeks has the price moved at all when I have tipped something! He will be fancied elsewhere, plus a few connections –

      He will be recorded at 5s – as 13/2 lasted about 20 mins and as I write, 5s is still around in 4 places- you can judge whether that is value or not – given he may go off at 7/2 (wouldn’t surprise me) it could still be ‘value’.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 7:45 AM Reply


  • For Daniel & Ali (& anyone else for that matter)

    Apologies for yesterday – for some reason yesterday I failed to check my tracked horses (another nightmare as Racing Post proving ‘useless & turning fully back to TurfTrax) & I don’t know why I let the cdg completely influence my decisions at a course when I’m not that sure Nottingham is so specialist a track to make a difference but one thing for sure, James Fanshawe is returning to form just in time for Ascot, a track that he does well at but

    Just for that you can have my latest Tracked fast timers: (sorry about the formatting)

    All these have a clocked a time of the meet XoM 0.20+ seconds per furlong = pounds lb clear of the card coc

    Spirit Raiser (IRE)

    J. R. Fanshawe

    XoM [0.21/lb coc] C3 WW V* prm gd p 3rd aw st 32dys 8sd/slw K-aw CD2 +9 Imp’d Aug – H Turner OTF ‘Imp’d 4 age’ > XoM C3 WW prm gd p h’cap 7th st 26dys 8sd K-aw +15 Imp’d Jun[likes]15 – 7R C5 RO 5th st 15dys 8g NewmJ Jun14 –

    02-Jun-16

    Minella Present (IRE)

    N P Mulholland

    XoM C2 WW 0.29lb coc HU gd p J* 52dys 20g Utt[likes] +9 Imp’d May16 – XoM 3rd c st 7dys 17gs Fon +21 Imp’d Jun[likes]15 – Lightly raced –

    30-May-16

    Quiet Reflection

    K. R. Burke

    XoM 7R Gr3 Imprsv! +0.63* 0.27lb coc 6th st 48dys 6g Hay May16 – XoM C1 WW Q’d 4l’s 3rd st trnr4R 29dys 5g Ayr +16 Imp’d Sep – B Curtis OTF Aug – XoM FTO 7R mdn 5l’s Q’d Prmsng! 5gd Ham Jul15 – filly

    29-May-16

    Journey

    J. H. M. Gosden

    OuterinQ XoM +1.74 o+ CR -0.75 fr 4y [0.23/lb coc] C1 f’s RO prm gd p 47dys 10gf Sal 2/2 gf’ +16 Imp’d Aug15 – G Straw filly

    29-May-16

    Altruism (IRE)

    James Moffatt

    XoM +6.20 0.25lb coc CR -nr2sec fr 24yo rec!! fto as c 10th st MA all-out 50dys 18g Crt CD3 +10 Imp’d May16 – Lightly raced –

    28-May-16

    Time Test

    R Charlton

    XoM +1.95 [0.16/lb coc] Gr3 v Imprsv! 10gf R Asc +23 Imp’d Jun – C2 WW h’cap 4th st [fut Gr1 r?] HU gd p trnr4R 241dys 10g Nby +15 Imp’d May15 – NMQ 2nd st 10dys 7gs Sand > trnr likes GR1 E’s Aug14 – K Abdullah

    27-May-16

    Hassle (IRE)

    R. D. P. Newland

    XoM +5.20* 0.53lb coc NY* J* 218dys 16g Fak +15 Imp’d May16 – Montjeu/Danehill

    24-May-16

    Caravaggio (USA)

    A. P. O’Brien

    XoM 0.20lb coc inc 4 PC’s o r @ d? C1 dr10/9 WW prm gd p 2nd st 33dys trnr4R 5gs Cur May16 – USA filly

    23-May-16

    Sir Valentino (FR)

    T. R. George

    XoM [0.47/lb coc] 7R C2 WW ’11 12′ 14dys 16s Lud CD2 Dec15 – m Imp’d 17hy 3rd c st 40dys Nby Feb14 – Lightly raced –

    16-May-16

    Avidity

    J. P. L. Ewart

    XoM =h b 0.16/lb coc 2nd c st 9dys 18g Ban May16 – 0.20q as h?

    15-May-16

    Andy Silvers 02/06/16 8:36 AM Reply


    • thats alright andy

      thanks!

      Ali 02/06/16 9:38 AM Reply


  • lets hope connections are on gold beau or i can see tears before bedtime now standing at 4-1

    courtney 02/06/16 8:48 AM Reply


    • Ah never any tears!! I can’t really do much more than that – everything looks right, and indeed if every horse I backed followed that formula – stats, horse form/profile against race conditions,course form,pace, weakness in oppo and ultimately the price – backing 13/2 shots at 4/1 consistently can only lead to profits over time – we will do fine long term. He had a stand out chance at the odds, if he runs his race he won’t be far away.

      A bit of money it seems for the Goldie horse – always interesting!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 9:07 AM Reply


  • Have a hunch for DURSEY SOUND in the 7.00 at FL, very competitive as you say and this is a quirky character but the JJO yard have had a few winners this past few days and their horses just seem to be running in to a bit of form.

    Ian 02/06/16 8:49 AM Reply


    • Yep, I tended to lean that way – if I were to pin colours to one horse near top, it would have been him – can work out if he is a true stayer – very odd profile, but then he won over 3,1f at Warwick so you think fine, but hardly tries over it – a bit like Azure Fly, depends what side of stable he rolled out of – if he were 8s or something may have been tempted. (scars of DreamsofTheatre are still raw!!) Good Luck if you take plunge. Johnson has a long straight here in which to cajole him into contention.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 9:09 AM Reply


      • Got Dursey Sound in my tracker
        PROFILE
        This lad will start his summer chase campaign on OR 122, which is
        the same as his last winning mark and 8lbs below his highest
        winning mark. He’s also placed from marks as high as OR 138 so it’s
        safe to say he’s well-handicapped at present. He ran a sound race at
        Southwell on the 18th of May and there were plenty of indicators
        there that he was just getting himself primed for his favourite
        months. 31/05

        mozzer 02/06/16 10:19 AM Reply


  • gold beau for me to short
    Hamilton 15:30-Incurs Four Faults
    about 10/1 now

    Pab 02/06/16 10:23 AM Reply


    • Same Here.Can’t get past the carlisle race last year when salv fury was 2nd to ypres and gold beau was 6l back in 5th.Same dist and ground and they are running with similar weights here.Now they are about the same price i would have to favour The “FURY”

      mozzer 02/06/16 11:55 AM Reply


  • Hi josh
    when i checked your micro system for epsom non-handicaps in HRB I have exactly the same figures for 2011/12/14/15 but 2013 i have 2 runs 0 wins instead of what you got 8 runs 3 wins strange

    mozzer 02/06/16 11:47 AM Reply


    • Hi mozzer – The track LTO micro? I will have a look – that is odd – it was using the ‘Festival Setting’- for Epsom Derby – as opposed to just Epsom – but then given you have 0 wins etc that doesn’t make sense. Leave it with me – that table was copied and pasted from HRB so cant think why we differ!

      Just looked…everything looks fine my end!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 11:55 AM Reply


      • Ah I put in Epsom month june, just checked, 2013 festival started in May.Where is the festival setting in HRB?

        mozzer 02/06/16 12:33 PM Reply


        • Just added may in, now i have the correct figures tx

          mozzer 02/06/16 1:01 PM Reply


  • I am still out of form, only a 12/1 place yesterday. Anyway..I press on.

    I hear that the Greatrex horse, For Goodness Sake, 7.30 FL, is expected to win. Not much of a price.

    I have Phoenix Beat from my tracker, 3.10 LP, at 9/2. Also Taysh, each way, at 12/1, 3.50 Ripon.

    For a dart at a big price, unraced 2YO, Penny Green, 7.10 KP, 25/1.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 02/06/16 12:06 PM Reply


  • Bloody RP tracker, backed and put Roys Legacy up on the blog lto won at 8/1, went in my tracker, just seen it pop up at 12/1 at Hamilton – gobsmacked, checked RP tracker, its there, all filled in, simply did not appear…any one got any alternative tracker suggestions?

    Ian 02/06/16 1:52 PM Reply


    • Ah that is frustrating. Attheraces has always been fine I think, get an email when a runner. Assume you don’t use HRB as can use that also. He did that well in the end. Grand old servant.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 1:55 PM Reply


    • Geegeez…don’t need to be a paid account, just be a registered user

      Paul 02/06/16 2:30 PM Reply


    • Yup, RP, ruddy annoying, me going back to TurfTrax http://www.turftrax.com/html/admin/myturftrax.asp a lot more reliable & doesn’t cost anything.

      Andy Silvers 02/06/16 5:56 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the Epsom Stats Josh, some really interesting stuff there

    James M 02/06/16 2:31 PM Reply


    • Cheers James – can’t say i was too optimistic initially but turned out ok in the end – a few good snippets and will be interesting what they throw up this year! Hopefully we can have some fun.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 2:36 PM Reply


  • Hi Ian,
    I use oddschecker for my tracker send daily emails and totally free.

    Roy Bedford 02/06/16 2:46 PM Reply


  • Hi Ian, my mistake I use Easyodds for my tracker.

    Roy Bedford 02/06/16 3:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Sorry I’m after timing here but I am sure I have mentioned this in the past and I realise your write up comments have to be taken in context, but don’t you think that phrases like “I am more than comfortable in recommending getting the wheelbarrow out” are a bit irresponsible? I am sure that there are loyal followers and probably donators that have bet more than they should have today. Yes it could have won and people would have been waxing lyrical. However you can’t know how addicted to gambling some of your readers are and surely uber confident statements should be followed with a standard reminder on gambling responsibly?

    Jim 02/06/16 3:49 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim,
      Yes that should take some explaining – getting the wheelbarrow out is a turn of phrase, associated with me betting more than 1 point on a horse which is the usual win stake – so for me, 2 points, or 3, is ‘getting the wheelbarrow’ out. That is how I write I suppose and try to make it all engaging and a good read!

      I can harp on about only bet an amount you can afford to lose- indeed numerous times I have referred to betting banks etc but I am not here to be a parent to grown adults. What people do with their money is up to them- the advice was 2 points – I suspect those that are addicted to gambling didn’t bother to read the write up and if they started following the blog since well – anytime in March I suppose, i doubt they are still reading!

      I don’t see why I need to issue reminders about gambling responsibly etc – but that is just my view, we clearly differ on that front.

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 3:55 PM Reply


      • Fair enough but at the end of the day it’s your post and people will follow strong comments like that. To feel totally devoid of any responsibility for such comments says a lot about your thoughts towards those who praise you so lavishly on occasions. Yes you may not want to parent etc and most wouldn’t want parenting I’m sure but personally even if I think a horse is cert I would always remind friends that I mentioned it to to not gove OTT.

        Jim 02/06/16 4:10 PM Reply


      • Agree with Josh on this one, people need to take responsibility for their own actions. If someone has a addiction then they will bet no matter what, so the phrase that Josh uses is not going to make a blind bit of difference in my opinion. On a different note I do quite like the chances of Eljadaaf in the 910 at Kempton and it will be a full bank job, maxmium gold with platinum lining bet for me tonight (That was tongue in cheek and will be the usual level stakes bet for myself)

        Mark 02/06/16 4:10 PM Reply


        • Haha yes I like that phrase and it doesn’t even need the bracketed comment to understand. I honestly just hope people haven’t lost too much today that’s all. Racing is all about fun to me and a small win now again is a bonus.

          Jim 02/06/16 4:19 PM Reply


          • Jim…. i take full responsibility for every comment I make on here and well, if you think I don’t give a toss about the people that read this blog, and follow my advice, then I don’t know where to start. Well, I won’t start and I am sorry that comment appears to have come across like that. I will more than happily offer help and advice to those who think they may need it – I meant that after every time I tip I am not going to give a warning that this is gambling etc. And no horses is a dead cert, nothing in life is a dead cert. If my engagement on this blog, in totality, gives the impression that I don’t care about you good people then I am lost really, bereft.

            Josh Wright 02/06/16 4:45 PM Reply


    • Jim, I think yiur advice would be more relevant if Josh was just writing a preview of a race with no guidance on what to bet. As it is, the suggested stake is very clearly marked.

      Neil 02/06/16 4:43 PM Reply


      • Ok I get it and 2point win is clear. However if including such strong comments in the write up (and there were more than the wheelbarrow bit) I would have added something like “I feel so confident I am putting £x on which is a big bet for me and what I’m comfortable with etc. Gives people who like to follow a figure rather than presuming esp a price falling as well, mean some would have put more on. Enough said I think. Sorry if I offended Josh but saying “I don’t see why I need to issue reminders” when people will follow your words and will have lost money seemed a bit ‘don’t care’ to me

        Jim 02/06/16 5:07 PM Reply


        • I don’t take offence Jim, but please be rest assured I do care. Hopefully the into to tomorrow’s blog helps. Most, but clearly not all, will know that 2 points is £40 for me – but, I take your general point and I will try and put more thought into the odds words I use etc

          Josh Wright 02/06/16 5:27 PM Reply


  • Used the Flat Racing Profiles at Ripon today. Decided to back O’Meara’s handicappers blind to small stakes. Found Kip at 10/1 ( massive 17.5 BSP). These guides keep turning up the winners and you don’t need to look too hard to find them. Josh isn’t paying me by the way !

    Andy 02/06/16 4:37 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Andy – yep using them well – which is the point, allows everyone to use them as they see fit to suit their own betting approach etc. Glad you had a good day in the end, better than mine!

      Josh Wright 02/06/16 4:46 PM Reply


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