The ‘tipped’ horse ran a cracker, drifting from 7s to 10s and finishing a close enough second not to be disheartened – I rarely complain when getting a run for my money/reading the race right. The winner was the one interesting horse in the race given his different profile – finding some form in point to points. Not a total shock albeit it was a bit of guesswork whether he would transfer it to rules – well, guesswork if you are not an avid PtP/hunter chase follower I suppose. (an area to expand my knowledge in) Anyway, if I read the majority of 3m+ chases like that for the rest of 2016 we should do just fine. Still, it was a loser.
NEW POST BELOW…
J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds): 7.20 Kempt – Gothic Empire
TTP STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.30 Ham – Lady Wootton (any odds) NR
2.50 Ling – Foxinthehenhouse (9/1<) DNQ
3.05 Ham – Little Belter (any odds) NR
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.40 Ham- Incurs Four Faults – 12/1 – NR- I am still scratching my head on this one and can’t decide whether I fully like his chance or not. But, part of the point of this section was to use the various ‘ways in’ to build a case and to an extent take my over-thinking/pondering out of it. So, I will just let you use what follows to help form your own view – which I know most of you use my ramblings for anyway! I can’t think I will have more than 1/2 point on him, maybe EW.
Firstly some stats- well this one clearly doesn’t qualify on the Dalgleish TTP system but that won’t cover all of his winners and is no immediate reason to be put off one. When teaming up with Jason Hart here, they are 5/16, 9 places. That is decent enough and he has also won on the horse, 1/3. He is now 7lb below his last winning mark and chance stands out to an extent on the tools I use, looking at other runners suitability to race conditions. Both of his flat handicap wins have come at Carlisle and Hamilton (1/4 CD) and it could be that he relishes a stiff finish. Two runs ago he returned after nearly 3 months off and he could be coming to the boil now. He ran OK LTO. He is also a C4/5 winner, and will go in at some point from around this mark. I wouldn’t be shocked were he to run a cracker, and 12s looked tempting. The negatives? Well his draw is far from ideal over this trip, around here. Now, he can front run and if he can get out, he could get a position (there are other prominent racers on his inside though) He could also get stuck wide and that would be that. He is also 0/7, 1p when going off 17/2 or bigger and his best form is in smaller fields, when he can dominate. The trainer is a bit hot and cold also but 30% of his horses have been placing in the last two weeks and he does run a lot. Then there are the two recent winners. One could bolt up again but there are reasons for why they may not – the track and their recent exertions. So, I am a bit torn on this one, but thought I would throw him out there.
I will mention Bouclier in the 8.20 Kempton. He is a bit short for me and was hoping he would be bigger but it appears many others may have seen what I did last time – a what could be politely called a ‘strange’ ride. It was over the fast 5 at Epsom and he was never really put in it – some effort near the end where he ‘flew’. I suspect they may have been ticking him over for a race of this nature, at this track. There could still be plenty to come from him back over a more adequate trip. But, he hasn’t been missed my the market. In any case it will be an interesting test for my ‘strange ride eyes’.
That is all for Wednesday. Post Complete. Anything catch your eye?