Members Report: 19/05/16 (COMPLETE)

As I write the two ‘stats/angles of interest’ horses have ran mighty fine races, one winning at 16s>9s and the other coming a neck second 22s>8s. I backed both in singles and had a 1/2 point EW double on – close to my biggest ever single win but not to be – it was exciting to watch mind. AS I said on Tuesday I have modified my approach to that section and with 8/1 and 16/1 winners from 4 bets. so far so good. It is still a ‘test’ section but hopefully it is a sign of things to come.

The ingredients? Well I think before I was trying to throw a bit too much ‘statty mud’ at the wall and hoping some of it stuck. Given the tools I have at my disposal I should put a bit more effort in so in general will be looking for horses running in uncompetitive races where their chance stands out, favourable handicap mark, trainer form, horse profile and trying to get a couple of stats to back them up – being trainer track form, trainer/jockey combo/TTP etc etc. So, more selective but a bit more in-depth – albeit I won’t be analysing every other runner in the same depth I would do if ‘tipping’. But, with this approach it may not matter! The aim will be to try and find horses at double figure odds that I think are over-priced. 

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TO NOTE: I am off on my travels in the early hours of Thursday morning, with any luck still on a high from the Reds battering Sevilla- albeit that could be a bit too optimistic! It is a close friend’s stag and we are heading off to Prague. The last time I went it never stopped raining so hopefully the sun shines! There will still be a daily blog post including any micro system bets- but outside of that I doubt there will be much until next week. On my return I will be starting to pull together stats packs for Epsom and for Royal Ascot. 

There is a new blog post, a results update + a micro angle. Just click ‘blog’ above, top left hand corner- second post down.

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TIPS

None. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Other

A King Flat (16/1<) 

3.30 Good: Jim Dandy 

7.30 Sand: Primitivo 

Meehan Maiden (any odds)

8.00 Sand: Ma Peek

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.20 Good: Enlace (any odds)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None. Had a quick flick through and nothing jumped out in terms of ‘uncompetitive’ races/horses standing out using the geegeez instant expert tab – and I have ran out of time to go through all the possible stats (takes about an hour, well, it did this morning, to get a long list before homing in, sing TTP/Geegeez Gold Reports/HRB) I am off to pack and then to the pub! 

Enjoy your evening/Thursday. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Enjoy Prague, the perfect place fir a great weekend and if you are unattached (not sure) the local ladies are very dishy!

    Ian 18/05/16 4:20 PM Reply


  • Josh I donate a small appreciative amount each month but must be honest up until the last week or so ive been hummin and hawin about sticking with you more than Rafa and the Newcastle job .Then bang AL CO, SINBAD , HAH REEB and then from the flat stats the Keatly treble at Ayr this after noon. Keep it up lad. One contented pensioner out for a pint tonight one wife gets a boquet of flowers. Mind you ive been keepin my head above water by backing Richard Hannon 3yos with which I reckon he will have a field day this w/e. Oh and The Warrior tomorrow should have a squeak. Enjoy your break and try the American bar on the way into the Prague old town . Good beer and jazz last time i was there. Good luck with the football tonight and pray God the TOON come back up next season

    tony tolhurst 18/05/16 4:49 PM Reply


  • Safe Trip Josh and Good Luck tonight, the man Klopp has done wonders with that bunch of oddbod missfits that Brendon Rogers left him.

    I would imagine Klopp will bring in 5 players in the summer and Liverpool will have a real shot at the Premier League next year.

    Steve 18/05/16 5:33 PM Reply


  • I’ve got early price 14/1 with Betfair on Mrs Warren 5.15 Lin tomorrow

    Went straight in my tracker LTO when a TTP bet at Brighton. Couldn’t find a gap but finished like a train when switched to the outer. Though Baker doesn’t do as well at this track, I can’t ignore double-figure odds for an eye-catcher. The pace of that finish suggests the step back in trip wont be a problem and horse has some ok CD form anyway

    Ali 18/05/16 6:02 PM Reply


    • plus 10lbs below last winning mark

      Ali 18/05/16 6:03 PM Reply


      • You can still get 14/1 on Betfair for reasonable stakes.

        Martin Colwell 18/05/16 8:05 PM Reply


    • Must admit, 6f at Lingfield is a lot different to 7f at Brighton and Mrs Warren was under pressure for a long way lto. There are three prominent racers on the stands rail and it is difficult for hold up horses to get a run here unless they switch to the middle, and on the (usually) slower ground. Clearly worth following in the short term though as very well handicapped now.

      Richard Sutton 19/05/16 6:36 AM Reply


  • I’ve got all my gear on now….Two of my kids have gone to Basle……I’m chewing my nails now wearing all my old footie clobber……
    The blue noses are hiding, waiting to crow if things go bad……
    As you say Steve…this is not Clippety’s team, but Rodgers mish mash……I’m gone now.

    Tony Mc. 18/05/16 6:39 PM Reply


    • Sevilla have come out hot second half! my 9/4 looking better now.

      Martin Colwell 18/05/16 8:07 PM Reply


  • Dazzling Rita just ran a good race at Southwell. Gone straight into the tracker and will back next time if the race is weak enough.

    She’s an improver from the Drake yard. A horse taken from another stable and already shown marked improvements and will probably continue to get better (see Raktiman, Nickis Nipper amongst others)

    Good luck ‘pool fans

    Ali 18/05/16 7:48 PM Reply


    • sorry ‘pool fans, i think i just brought on a case of ‘commenter’s curse’

      Ali 18/05/16 7:50 PM Reply


      • Sick as a pig Ali…but you’ve got to be in it to win it…..next time maybe….
        You could have got 14/1 for backing Sevilla coming from behind….good bet if you wanted it.

        Tony Mc. 19/05/16 10:45 AM Reply


  • Top3 cdg’s think Pastoral Player could be worthy EW shot but this lot old & think Czech It Out could be the upstart, now just seen Enlace ?

    220 2 (0-100) qm 112
    Arnold Lane 8-7
    Pastoral Player 8-9
    Sirius Prospect 9-5

    Andy Silvers 19/05/16 7:33 AM Reply


  • will be looking to bank a bit more profit with an each way nibble on Forecast in the opener at Lingfield at 200, meeting is on turf and lto this one ran well in to 3rd at Chepstow upped to this trip. Interestingly was beaten by Yul Finegold by 4 lengths and that one consistently runs and runs well of a turf mark in mid 70;s whilst Forecast gets in today here off 58. Has short priced recent AW winner to beat but like the profile and had a dabble at 7/1 earlier.

    Ian 19/05/16 9:14 AM Reply


  • pettochside 5.05 goodwood, twice c/d winner off 1ib lower, three runs for new stable, good prep run for this last time, moneys coming for it. must go close today

    GB 19/05/16 9:38 AM Reply


  • I have to be honest in saying I enjoyed watching the racing at Newcastle on Tuesday, it seemed a fair and reasonable track.

    I did notice a couple of early winners won at new trips a furlong or so further than their norm but put it down to the Tapeta surface and the pace angles from it.

    It now transpires that the Course have admitted that the “distances were used from historical data” (one assumes the old turf track) and that experts have suggested that some timings would be “world record times”.

    They are now having the track measured by the acknowledged experts in the field rather than the contractors.

    Would make a great sub plot for a film though if some trainers were in the know!

    Ian 19/05/16 11:44 AM Reply


    • Interesting thanks – I banged the times in my spreadsheet & I’ll dig up Nick Mordin’s book ‘On Time, where there is a universal standard for distance and compare… I gave Mark Johnston’s Turbine ‘time of the meet’ he ran faster ‘seconds per furlong’ over 7.5f than the winners of the 3 races over shorter trips… I did wonder why they bothered with that distance as it’s fascinating enough that Newcastle boasts the only AW straight mile…

      I just popped by to say, I think we saw a Coventry Stakes / or Royal Ascot winner in Yalta at Goodwood today, yet another ‘time of the meet’ for his trainer who is topping my table for such so far this season..

      Andy Silvers 19/05/16 10:00 PM Reply


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