Members Report: 18/05/16 (COMPLETE)

First up, I have a research piece/article for you. It is 14 pages and 3400 or so words on all things sprint handicaps. Specifically I have had a good look at class 2 handicaps, 5-6.5f, 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps. Naturally the focus is on trainers and it is packed full of interesting snippets, stats and micro angles. 

This is similar to the monthly articles that I write for The Betting Insiders Club, albeit this one is a bit longer than those. I want to try and do something like this every month/more often, mainly reserved for Donations Club members. But, this one is there for you all to get stuck into, if you like such things.

As always its aim is to try and enhance your enjoyment of this sport and hopefully help you and I make more money! 

You can dive straight in at the link below. Enjoy. Let me know what you think…

C2 Sprint Handicap Research HERE>>>

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25/1 winner anyone...

Having had a read through Tuesday’s comments it would appear Gerry, unlike me, used the Trainer Track Profiles report and the trainer/jockey combo stats to land on a nice 25/1 winner at Notts for the handicap dream team there of messrs Appleby and Mullen. I missed him, which happens, along with Ali I think! Bugger. I do hope some of you other TTP users managed to find him. Their stats are strong enough just to back them blind I think, but a case of after the Lord Mayor’s Show there for me personally. 

The link is still below if you wish to get a copy, 60 day money back guarantee etc if you decide it isn’t for you…

GET YOUR COPY HERE>>>

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TIPS

I had a look at the 3.20 Warwick but decided to leave alone. Many in there are lightly raced over fences and the weather complicates things – rain around and the ground an unknown. Happy to sit that one out. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Other

A King Flat (16/1<): 3.30 Bath – Phantom River – UP

J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds): 7.25 Kemp – Higher Power

Pam Sly Females (any odds): 5.05 War – Taweyla – PU

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A nice win (just,a nose) from Sinbadthesailor at 8/1 yesterday. A couple of biggies that may outrun their odds today…

2.00 Ayr – Hab Reeh – 16/1 – 14/1 – WON 16/1 >9/1 -this is a really weak race and on suitability/wining form in conditions, two stand out – this one and Amber Crystal. Hab Reeh is getting on but has the ability to win this, is 11lb below his last winning mark,is 2/5,2 places OR 41-50 and the trainer is in form – 5/22 last 14 days. This horse is now 0/6,1 p at Thirsk and maybe he just doesn’t like the place and that can be an excuse for his recent runs. Or, he could just be out of form. But, you wouldn’t be shocked if he bounced back. These two horses are the only two winners in the class, and if you include C5 also – the rest are 0/108 combined in C6 so they have plenty to prove. They are also the only distance winners in the race. The Perret horse, Amber Crystal, is being backed and is half the price of HR – the trainer is 0/20,1 place in last 30 days which was slightly off-putting, but could go well. Very well handicapped esp with 7lb claim. In races like this you often look to the unexposed ones, and as such the Charlie Hills horse may be the one to beat, but he ins’t much of a price. 

4.05 Bath – Urban Space – 22/1 – 2nd 8/1 (a neck,agonising,but great fun!)  if this race was over 1m3.5f you would be more confident, indeed stamina is the only question but he is getting older now, may want further, and has yet to conclusively prove he won’t stay. The trainer is 5/18 here with handicappers and is 2/10,6 places last 30 days. With the claim the horse is 11lb below his last win and he is 2/7,5 places in class 6, for +26 points profit. All conditions bar the trip are fine and at the odds I will take a stab. 

***

That is all for today. Post Complete. Good Luck with any bets. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

61 Comments

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  • Dalgleish/Makin Boom or Bust continued

    6 shots fired and six misses,another well backed one bites the dust yesterday
    Tomorrows qualifier-Beautifull Stranger 7/1 BET365,only 4 bullets left

    gerry 17/05/16 6:43 PM Reply


  • Hi, Josh, many thanks for your research on class 2 stats.
    I found them very informative and an interesting read.

    James 17/05/16 7:02 PM Reply


    • cheers James. Fingers crossed they point to a few winners this season, or at least know which ones to avoid from some of those. It should all help in any case.

      Josh Wright 17/05/16 7:34 PM Reply


  • Good shout on Sinbad the sailor Josh….it halted a long run of losers…cheers.

    Tony Mc. 17/05/16 7:11 PM Reply


    • cheers Tony, yep felt like a while since last winner, it may well have been Al Co for me, albeit that was only Friday! think that approach is the way forward for now – a few factors/stats/form profile etc coming together, rather than just 1 ‘way in’all the time.

      Josh Wright 17/05/16 7:35 PM Reply


  • I may have missed it. but did anyone mention that lovely Grand national winner of Pipes, Comply or Die passing away….I was on him that day…lol. not literally but backed it.
    I know old horses pass every day, but we should remember these very brave horses who do.

    Tony Mc. 17/05/16 7:15 PM Reply


    • Yep a grand old servant- sad yes, but always more comforting when they have had a decent innings and have been well cared for. Always important to take a moment to remember such brave warriors, without whom -well, I don’t really know what I would spend most of my time doing!

      Josh Wright 17/05/16 7:38 PM Reply


  • Well done on Sinbad the sailor,i used to back the Appleby 3yolds at Nottingham sort of blindly a few yrs back,i think thats 2nd one i was on this year,bar 2yr olds the trainer is fairly consistantly frofitable at Nottingham,wasn’t expecting it to be 25/1 though, pretty much the same for James Fanshawe at Kempton with a leaning towards 4yo+

    gerry 17/05/16 7:19 PM Reply


    • Thanks Gerry, just nice to get one on the board for that section , it has been doing OK, but nothing more than that, need to step it up a bit. Time will tell. Yep well done for nabbing him, completely passed me by, not sure why as I thought I had looked through!

      Josh Wright 17/05/16 7:39 PM Reply


  • Just got Hill of Gold at Huntingdon…noticed they’d made a jockey change on the horse who is hard to win with, but not with Gina Andrews….She’s a great jockey….

    Tony Mc. 17/05/16 7:43 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Thanks for the sprint. Should be an extra arrow in the quiver to work with. I wasn’t on but well done on Sinbad as well.

    Nick Mazur 17/05/16 7:51 PM Reply


    • sprint guide even (I am so useless without an edit button)

      Nick Mazur 17/05/16 7:53 PM Reply


  • That Fanshawe switcher’s a bit too short for my liking so will take it on with Castilo Del Diablo e/w 16/1

    Done nothing wrong in good races and hopefully the bookies are wrong in taking cover from those at the top of the market from big stables, creating value elsewhere. Simcock yard going well

    Ali 17/05/16 8:24 PM Reply


    • Interesting to see if there is any money for “Fallen for a star” has been fav all his races so far and posted a good 91 rpr 2 races ago.New trainer, first time hood on handicap debut>Mark of 84 seems very reasonable. Cumani record with these types
      Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
      83 18 21.69% 28.00 31 37.35%
      The last 2 were winners at 25/1 11/4

      Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
      2015 7 3 43% 24.95 3 43%
      2014 2 0 0% -2 0 0%
      2013 8 3 38% 0.11 4 50%
      2012 6 2 33% 20 2 33%

      mozzer 17/05/16 9:21 PM Reply


    • Good day to you,sir.
      Ahem… returning to Caroline Bailey, she runs High Ron in the 6.15 at Southwell, where she is 8-22 with ‘chasers over the last 5 seasons, for an LSP of £16.63. Just sayin’ 😉

      J.D. 18/05/16 10:29 AM Reply


      • Yep, Josh did a bit of profile work on some horses and High Ron was one. All wins at Southwell or Uttoxeter returning 16-60 days

        Will stick to this profile and leave for today

        Ali 18/05/16 12:07 PM Reply


  • Caroline Bailey has a chaser in the 6.15 Southwell but Harry Skelton is at Warwick for Dan.Tom Scu is 48% with chasers at the track,there is something niggling at the back of my mind that Tom is not the jockey he was before his injury last autumn,but High Ron knows track well so a small bet at 6/1,Speaking of Harry Skelton that performance to stay on Ballyvaughin was some feat,his ride in the 2.45 warwick Adrakhan is a bit like Crosspark last week,first time chaser,a win over hurdles and then a bit disappointing afterwards,at 8/1 having small interest

    gerry 17/05/16 8:33 PM Reply


    • I’ve noticed that at some of the stiffer fences he’s easing the horse into the jump and loses [momentum] a length or so..which he makes up, but that tells on the horse. He was/is one of my fav. jockeys.

      Tony Mc. 17/05/16 8:51 PM Reply


  • TTP…4.40 B Meehan KODIAK MOMENT maiden is 25/1 currently Bet 365. 55% SR.

    Tony Mc. 17/05/16 9:05 PM Reply


  • Two I’m looking at for today are 3.55 warick, Talk of the south. Recent form looks reasonable and it’s only win comes at this distance plus Brennan is a good jockey booking I’m so a fair ew chance? The other one being 6.15 Southwell Cody wyoming. Cj Mann is 3 from 8 this month and a trainer I’m following for may. If Cody wyoming has a run like last time should go close but that’s an if 9/2s is a fair enough price.

    James b 18/05/16 3:54 AM Reply


  • Nice little stat from the RP – Liam Keniry 4yo’s+ for Neil Mulholland on flat 3.30 Bath Chancellor 25/s Hills:

    JOCKEY OVERALL GB FLAT 4y+ PROFIT/LOSS
    Liam Keniry 28-121 23% +75.77 27-109 25% +82.27

    Andy Silvers 18/05/16 6:53 AM Reply


    • Methinks you may be onto something here; the price has surely take a battering.
      Be lucky!

      J.D. 18/05/16 10:05 AM Reply


  • The Hot Race from Bath on 26/4 is now 5/3/10 and two of the placed horses could not have won as they were second and third to one of the subsequent winners. The winner and the fifth from that race,Saint Helena (2.20) and Miss Inga Sock (8.25 a/w!) run from that race today.

    Richard Sutton 18/05/16 7:50 AM Reply


    • yep good shout Richard, they are on my notes as had a look at those, but decided to go for the biggies as above – be interesting to see how they go! Certainly is a hot race, for the level. Good Luck

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 7:57 AM Reply


    • Yes and watching that race back Saint Helena was very slow out of the stalls and did extremely well to win that race.

      James M 18/05/16 8:08 AM Reply


      • A system i have Qualifier Saint Helena
        Horse Data – characteristics in this race
        Odds – Btw 1/50 & 8/1
        Class Move
        Same Up 1
        Horses Last Race – most recent run
        Odds (LR) – Btw 25/1 & 100/1
        Placing (LR)
        First
        Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
        1562 310 19.85% 93.38 696 44.56%

        mozzer 18/05/16 11:08 AM Reply


  • A couple caught my eye at Bath today at double figure prices and with “firm” not likely to figure in Going by race time won’t have any excuses with rain about.

    In the Opener Rockliffe for Channon is down in trip and has been running well to this 10f point in some races, nice draw to run round the rail and eye catching jockey booking if you are looking for someone to ride a tactical race down in trip!

    In the 4.05 Eastern Magic, back with the Hollinsheads after a spell hurdling for Ben Case, on some old Hollinshead era flat form is well handicapped here and also one that has previously run well after a similar break.

    I will be having a small e/w double + singles…

    Ian 18/05/16 9:11 AM Reply


    • PALISADE 1.50 Bath…pulled out last week when the ground turned soft…..gng says firm…..is it raining there now.

      Tony Mc. 18/05/16 11:09 AM Reply


    • Well done Ian, exiting for you onto the 4.05, but decent day nonetheless!

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 12:59 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, doubly exciting is the fact I did it in a Lucky 15 too with Hab Reeh (took 14’s on that and Rockliffe) and the other 2 are Eastern Magic and Urban Space….lets hope therefore we can BOTH have a nice double!

        Ian 18/05/16 1:16 PM Reply


        • Ah indeed. I may have done something I rarely do, and did the double! about 220/1 I think, did it a bit later at 12s and 16s Bet365 – £10EW – He will get me excited for 2/3rds of race but do expect that his stamina may ebb late on, but couldn’t resist at odds – a place will be decent enough!

          Josh Wright 18/05/16 1:20 PM Reply


        • correction my e/w L15 is Urban Space and the 4th is More Mischief in the 4.20 at Ayr….so 2 winners and an runner up (Urban Space) for the L15 and Eastern Magic was in the original double with Hab Reeh

          Ian 18/05/16 3:13 PM Reply


          • crikes – just watched urban space, was third leg of a L15 with 2 x 14/1 winners – prices on Hab and Rock earlier…so unlucky….final leg is More Mischief at Ayr…4.20

            Ian 18/05/16 3:21 PM Reply


  • Continuing my quest to find a big priced winner, I hear a good word for Myredbush, 6.55 KP, each way, 50/1.

    Martin Colwell 18/05/16 10:37 AM Reply


    • ..the name’s worth a small bet alone….

      Tony Mc. 18/05/16 11:03 AM Reply


      • I would hedge that bet Tony…

        Richard Sutton 18/05/16 11:45 AM Reply


        • lol…I only meant….snigger.

          Tony Mc. 18/05/16 12:04 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Just to let fellow punters, who also like their footy, like me, know, that the Liverpool Europa Final is on Freeview CH59 live tonight. Also it’s on BT Sport YouTube channel. Know that you’ll be watching, of course. Good Luck to them

    Allan 18/05/16 11:49 AM Reply


    • Sevilla 9/4 which may be value based upon their record in comp?

      Martin Colwell 18/05/16 12:02 PM Reply


    • …my trusty lucky motheaten wooly hat is out Al…lol

      Tony Mc. 18/05/16 12:07 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, A couple for Halford at Dundalk tonight of interest?. I thought Shannon Soul 8.35 looked to have a fair chance at the price (14/1), won its maiden over course and distance. The other is Shirley 8.05 20/1

    James M 18/05/16 11:57 AM Reply


    • Halford 9/35 at this track (+£20) with first time handicappers over the past five years according to GGZ.

      Richard Sutton 18/05/16 12:26 PM Reply


    • Hi James, yep those two both qualify on the Dundalk micro I researched for him, in the ‘winter AW guide’ but qualifiers still coming up so I assume it was for all year! They are only qualifiers, and sometimes no point in overthinking – be interesting to see how they go.

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 1:01 PM Reply


  • Boom got 14/1 last night thanks Josh

    James 18/05/16 1:13 PM Reply


    • A bit of 100/7 works wonders! 😉

      J.D. 18/05/16 1:26 PM Reply


  • Me too, thanks Josh

    Barry 18/05/16 1:15 PM Reply


  • eeeuuurrggghhh, missed another Ruth Carr winner. Following her flat runners aged 5-7 this May-June and missing a load of winners aged 4 or 8! Guilty of back-fitting perhaps. System needs tweaking. Anyone else following Ruth’s runners?

    Hab Reeh 2.00 was the winner

    Ali 18/05/16 1:45 PM Reply


    • yes Ali – did you miss the stats/angles of interest section above??!!! I would hope a few had a nibble, I did!

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 1:47 PM Reply


    • Should take notice of your Stats/Angles section more – it’s on fire!

      Ali 18/05/16 1:54 PM Reply


      • oh, well, baby steps after an up and down period but I have tweaked my approach as from yesterday, yet to be on fire, but a decent two days!

        Josh Wright 18/05/16 2:02 PM Reply


  • So close to a wonderful double there Josh.. boxed in and couldn’t get the gap in time.. Lovely first winner though

    kevin 18/05/16 3:09 PM Reply


    • Ah that was good fun! Don’t bet doubles that often but along with the win bet would have collected close to £3k there – got a brilliant ride and I think he got out in time for me, no real complaints there- just out-stayed if anything- but it would have been fun had he got his head in front! still, I wont complain, +6 points from the EW double, +15 points from the two single bets – I wont be greedy!

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 3:14 PM Reply


      • I think you are right, he rode for the trip and did not quite get it, if he had raced more prominently would not have got as close as he did. Got 14’s my first 2 earlier, on Urban at 14’s too and final leg More Mischief on at 9’s…second also…..doh…but as you say = great fun!

        Ian 18/05/16 3:29 PM Reply


  • Lady Cordie…….Goldies 2nd string….33/1…how many times have we seen this….big price missed. Must be something there to peruse.

    Tony Mc. 18/05/16 3:26 PM Reply


    • Tony I thought the same until I looked at the form of the winner….

      They should not be asking Goldie to explain the improved form….more like check to see if the horse is a ringer (I’m joking of course) but on past form, it would have been impossible to back it!

      Ian 18/05/16 3:31 PM Reply


      • Hmmm not impossible – that was only her 10th career start so anything was still possible – the odds she ran at as a 3 year old suggested not much expected and probably needed the run LTO – she could have psysically strengthened etc etc – when a horse has had that few runs, nothing is ever a total shock for me – didn’t look at race and doubt I would have found her, but expect Jim would be able to explain that one away without much fuss for me, given unexposed profile, age, growth etc.

        Josh Wright 18/05/16 3:51 PM Reply


  • Should be a trainer micro bet as well but Enlace looks an absolutely cracking bet in the 2:20 at Goodwood tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 18/05/16 3:45 PM Reply


  • well done josh,was at work and missd it,still had some consolation with the apprentice at ayr at 10/1,just saw Tom won on a bailey horse in the novice,think that was 14/1 last night,hope he can do double

    gerry 18/05/16 5:13 PM Reply


    • yep, Mr keatley brought up another treble at Ayr, he doesn’t mess around when coming across, glad you had a nibble- suspected you would have done!

      Josh Wright 18/05/16 5:18 PM Reply


  • Well the writing was on the wall for From the drift of High Ron,This was obviously not the target,a front runner not given his head,have to watch out for his next outing over a more suitable distance,ah well

    gerry 18/05/16 5:26 PM Reply


    • Did better than codey wyoming that I backed Gerry lol

      James b 18/05/16 5:53 PM Reply


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