Members Report: 16/05/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

None today. 

Just a note on the 7.50 Killarney – Ballyadam Approach – one of the horses tipped on here at 50/1 in the Irish National, who came 3rd, lines up in this race. I have had a quick look at him and all race conditions look fine – it just may be whether he is over those exertions but he is lightly raced, a prominent racer, and may give it a good go. He has won at the track and is worthy of a second glance. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

A King Flat: (16/1<) 

6.40 Leic: Mystery Code UP

 

T George Hncp Chasers (any odds)

3.00 Kempt: Valseur Du Granval – UP evens

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

3.55 Red: Jebediah Shine (12/1<) 2nd, nose, 10/1 (urgh!)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.55 Redc – Olivia Fallow – UP- not necessarily to back but just worth keeping an eye on for the stable form if nothing else. Midgley had his first winner over the weekend for quite some time and it could be that they are about to fire – he was a june trainer last year, and may well be again this year – forget how he did last season. This one looks well fancied and has everything in her favour on paper. This is her seasonal reappearance and a bold run here may indicate that Midgley is about to hit decent form. 

5.35 Red – Siberian Power – 14/1 – UP (odd market,12/1>25/1>8/1)is a Candlish flat runner, so is worthy of a second glance. He comes here after a break so the market may guide as to fitness and he makes his handicap debut – she is 1/2 with flat horses doing that in recent year. She is also in decent form – 5/23,11 p last 30 days. Interesting to see how this one goes, but either way, that is a micro angle worth keeping onside in the years ahead. She does need to find another Maoi Chinn Tire (resp for 6 of the 12 flat wins in recent seasons) and maybe this horse in time could be that one. 

8.10 Leic – Bell Heather -9/2 – using my TTP guide it is clear this one ticks a couple of main boxes for Fahey winners here – he has a fine record with his handicappers here anyway, you can back them all blind really if you so wanted. But, he does well over this trip and in 3yo handicaps. 

8.40 Leic- Press Gang 7/1 – I used the Geegeez Gold and the ‘hot form’ report to see that three runners from his last race have since run again, and all three have won. He came third the last day, on seasonal reappearance and although he was beaten 7 lengths, the winner has since come out again in a C3 and won, the second has won again at C6 level and the 4th has won again at C5 level. So, he had some in form/progressive horses around him that day. The same jockey rides and he just caught the eye. There are plenty of unexposed ones in here from powerful yards but maybe he will put his relative experience to good use. Fahey and Sir M S have decent records with their handicap debutants here so I will be keeping an eye on those, albeit the market is weak at the moment for the pair, and their recent form may not inspire much confidence – they will have to leave it behind, which they may well do on handicap debut. 

***

That is all for today, good luck with whatever you back. 

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • truly shocking racing today from a punting perspective but I feel a day for the notebook and pen as a lot of informative (if low grade) 3 year old maidens, which may throw up a lot of interest for later in the season. Far too soon to be diving in to these type of races imho as very early in season and many will want some sun on their backs.

    I will though have a small each way on Bahamian C in the 6.40 at Leicester, had a run, off a very nice mark, decent draw and 7lbs claimer has been used be4 by Fahey when he thinks one is well handicapped and Fahey has good course record according to TTP stats…

    Ian 16/05/16 7:08 AM Reply


    • Good Luck Ian, yep given Fahey’s solid stats and his odds, he is worth a nibble. May come on from last run and the stiff finish may help here – two reasons why an improved performance wouldn’t shock. Him or Mystery Code would do nicely!

      Josh Wright 16/05/16 8:44 AM Reply


      • Have a system bet in this race
        Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
        1561 310 19.86% 94.38 696 44.59%

        Odds – Btw 1/50 & 8/1
        Class Move Same Up 1
        Horses Last Race
        Odds (LR) – Btw 25/1 & 100/1
        Placing (LR) First

        QUALIFIER GULF OF POETS

        mozzer 16/05/16 9:45 AM Reply


        • These odds look very big for Bahamian C considering his 3rd of 10 beaten 1.25 lengths off 4LB higher in November 2015 over this distance of 1 miles 2 furlongs.Richard Fahey who has an overall 16% record at this course. Incidentally, jockey Adam McNamara is one win from one ride here.

          mozzer 16/05/16 9:51 AM Reply


  • Jebediah Shine 9/1 1pt

    Although yet to win in class 3 handicap company, Jebediah Shine is only 2LB above his last win at Chelmsford on the all weather in January. She is 2 wins from 3 on today’s going of good to firm with very little rain forecast. She is 5 wins from 11 for apprentice Josh Doyle and is the only runner today for the top stable of David O’Meara. O’Meara has a 35 wins from 192 runs, 18%, here over the last five seasons for an almost 26 point profit.

    Pab 16/05/16 8:42 AM Reply


    • Yep, she is a system bet for the main TTP system for Redcar so I am hoping she runs a decent enough race, decent odds and worth a go. Good Luck

      Josh Wright 16/05/16 8:45 AM Reply


    • Yeah I am on this one as well for very much the same reasons (drawn in given it was a system bet). Draw should be a problem either. Other one I like is Planeteria in the race after (both are B365 feature races) although not sure I would have a bet at the current price given he was 11/1 last night. Trainer has won with his last 4 runners. Horse has already won a big field handicap over course and distance last season (arguably from a bad draw as was from stall 12 and 5 of the first 7 were drawn low). Clearly there has already been significant support.

      Nick Mazur 16/05/16 9:28 AM Reply


    • Well we couldn’t get any closer than that I guess

      Nick Mazur 16/05/16 3:01 PM Reply


      • yep, nose defeats never pleasant but that’s racing, have had a few go my way over the last year, all evens out sadly!

        Josh Wright 16/05/16 3:04 PM Reply


        • Given I generally bet e/w I don’t normally mind 2nds but given the second one just came it that nose cost me the best part of a grand on the double 🙁

          Nice profit to start the week though.

          Nick Mazur 16/05/16 3:38 PM Reply


  • Show Palace 2-20 REDCAR Jennie Candlish H CDSR 100.00%H CSR 100.00%
    6/1 last run 203 days ago good draw

    Pab 16/05/16 9:28 AM Reply


    • yep good spot Pab, the other JC flat runner, and looks more fancied than the one I have put up. We shall see!

      Josh Wright 16/05/16 9:41 AM Reply


      • Nice one Pab

        Tom 16/05/16 1:31 PM Reply


    • won nice

      Pab 16/05/16 1:30 PM Reply


      • yep, never in doubt from about half way in terms of jockey body language. Plenty more to come from him you would think also, made all his own running has well- did it hard way for a young horse. Travelled strongly, plenty left up sleeve near end.

        Josh Wright 16/05/16 1:31 PM Reply


    • I managed to get 9/2….nice one Pab.

      Tony Mc. 16/05/16 1:59 PM Reply


  • From your Redcar stats. MAIDEN RACES (All) I presume that includes 2 year olds.
    J G Given: 7 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 43% sr / +27 SP / +39 BFSP / 3.23
    The trainer has one runner today in the 1-50 Redcar TAWNY PORT s/p 16/1

    philip 16/05/16 10:07 AM Reply


    • yep- that race is a novice race, as opposed to a maiden – BUT… they have introduced more of these races this season, to replace Maidens – so, for now, you could view them in the same way. Yep the maiden stats cover all maiden races. Given profit for Given suggests the odd decent priced one goes in. GL

      Josh Wright 16/05/16 10:29 AM Reply


      • I got 20s…..great run though.

        Tony Mc. 16/05/16 2:00 PM Reply


    • Great run to finish second there.

      Tom 16/05/16 1:07 PM Reply


  • Sorry it’s late the value has gone but Nearest The Pin 4.05 Kemp a huge CDG 9/s from 14/s+

    Andy Silvers 16/05/16 10:11 AM Reply


  • As well the two above I have had a tiny bet (literally 0.125pt e/w) on Little Lottie in the 20:40 at Leicester. I always find it interesting when a good 7lb claimer is booked for a trainer who never has used him before since they must think he has some sort of chance or else they would want to be dropping his mark. The horse is effectively 12lbs lower with the claim and has first time cheek pieces on. He might have needed the run or the ground was too slow LTO. Its probably £4 I will never get back but at 80/1 I couldn’t help myself.

    Nick Mazur 16/05/16 10:22 AM Reply


    • lol…I joined you on this Nick..one never knows.

      Tony Mc. 16/05/16 11:10 AM Reply


  • 8:40 LEICESTER Handicap (Class E) (3yo)
    Monaco Rose Richard Fahey/ Adam McNamara 17/1

    Pab 16/05/16 12:36 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I have bet Jebediah Shine in the 3.55, but I have Olivia Fallow well over 10pts ahead in my ratings…..of course it’s 1st time out for over 200+ days. But I think your right….Midgely looks like he’s moving up a gear…plus G Lee, is a jockey change.

    Tony Mc. 16/05/16 2:07 PM Reply


    • yep, she looks to have a strong chance – position in market/support suggests she is straight enough and ran well 1st time up last season, jockey change is significant I suspect – unsure why he wasnt on originally thought given was always here. We shall see. top rated on geegeez speed figs also.

      Josh Wright 16/05/16 2:22 PM Reply


  • 15:25 Redcar
    Connemera Queen won at 50/1
    Winning TrainerMiss Tracy Waggott

    Pab 16/05/16 2:36 PM Reply


    • How did you come up with that one?

      Jarrod 16/05/16 5:10 PM Reply


      • For some reason timestamp is 1hr behind. So this was posted post race
        (If you were on nice one!)

        the gambler 16/05/16 5:37 PM Reply


  • 6:40 LEICESTER
    will Omotesando come in first three
    i am on the way to discover new e/w method
    untill now 6 bets 6 e/w wins

    Pab 16/05/16 3:06 PM Reply


  • Guys,

    Tomorrow is Newcastle’s first ever all weather meeting. Now the sensible thing to do would be to keep a watching brief, however for those of us not being sensible any thoughts on what the track is meant to be like and any comparisons to other tracks? Also can anyone remember if there was any sort of bias at Chelmsford when they re-opened. Any thoughts (no matter how bizarre) would be appreciated.

    Nick Mazur 16/05/16 4:39 PM Reply


  • Chelmsford when they re-opened advice was not to bet,

    Pab 16/05/16 5:17 PM Reply


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