Members Report: 17/05/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

None. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

7.00 Hunt – Ballyvaughn (12/1<)

 

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Some more thinking to do with this section as it isn’t working as hoped at the moment. If an aspect of this blog isnt helping us profit long term then there is no great point in it. I have had a look through all ‘bets’ since the start of April and it is around 6 points up – around 16/93 or so – albeit that is not exact – and doesn’t include the daily Chester pointers, which were up and down. I don’t think it did that well before April. The stats are the stats, but maybe it is a case of being more selective and putting more time into looking at the races/opposition. This section of the blog has always been a bit ‘testy’ and requires some further thought I think. Possibly just focussing on bigger priced horses. Unsure. 

A couple today and for now I will try and focus on horses that are 10/1+ . I will continue to use a mixture of Geegeez Gold reports/cards and my TTP guide and ensure a selections has a few things going for it, rather than one ‘way in’. I need to add a few more pieces to the jigsaw and stop being lazy. A focus on fewer horses but more quality/analysis, combined with attacking some at a decent price. As always, do as you please with this information…

6.40 Weth – In Focus – 16/1 -UP- any geegeez gold users/Instant Expert tab users will know why this one catches the eye. All race conditions look fine and in terms of horses that are proven in race condtions – namely ground, class and distance, this is fairly uncompetitive. Many in here have proven they don’t like the ground, dont have the class, or dont stay. This one also has track form and the only negative appears to be his handicap mark, which he has yet to win from. But, I dont think he has proven he can’t win from it and he is 5, this being his 21st flat start. He may have hated Southwell LTO so a line could be put through that. There are 4 places here and he could be in the mix at a price- of course they could be trying to get his mark down – we shall see. 

8.00 Hunt – Sinbadthesailor – 10/1 (BV/PP)- WON 8/1 (after R4)George Backer doesn’t send many here but from the 12 he has in last 5 years, 4 have won. He is a perfect 3/3 here when using the services of T Whelan and the horse is suited to all race conditions. He has old hurdles form that would make him competitive here and his last flat run indicated that some ability still remains. He looked interesting at a price.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • Has anyone seen a price for Doesyourdogbite, 3.50 Nottingham? I hear that it is fancied to go well from the Jonjo stable.

    Apologies for my tips on Saturday. All 4 ran slower than an Invictus Games competitor!

    Martin Colwell 16/05/16 8:37 PM Reply


    • Showing as a NR martin

      Max 16/05/16 8:40 PM Reply


      • Self certified (going)

        Paul 16/05/16 8:44 PM Reply


    • Many thanks for your well chosen words.

      I am an Invictus Games competitor.
      Might I suggest that you try a stint in 2 Para, working to clear routes alongside Afghan troops in the Counter Improvised Explosive Device Task Force.
      Having your left leg forcibly removed, just above the knee. does slow one down somewhat.
      You really must try it.
      Thanks again.

      J.D. 17/05/16 12:44 AM Reply


      • Well said JD has an ex squaddie myself I think you Invictus games competitors were brilliant.all the best.BoB

        BoB 17/05/16 8:18 AM Reply


      • Nothing meant there lad. I was with the Paras back in the late 50s and 60s……. took shit as well….and left a few behind…..we were young then and could say…’if you can’t take a joke, you shouldn’t have joined’ Now I look back and think what a load of B******s. I take no offence at light comments……you had to have been there and done it, but it was our choice…..let it go. cheers lad and best of luck.

        Tony Mc. 17/05/16 11:12 AM Reply


        • Sorry for any offence. In future I will use the term 3 legged donkey as it is unlikely any such animal is on this blog. Thanks to all the armed forces for their contribution to our safety’s.

          Martin Colwell 17/05/16 12:15 PM Reply


          • Excuse me sir, but my donkey has 3 legs. 🙁

            J.D. 17/05/16 3:26 PM Reply


  • A couple of outsiders from in form stables. A Sure Welcome, 6.10 We, 50/1. Sweet Temptation, 3.25 LP, 28/1.

    Martin Colwell 16/05/16 8:48 PM Reply


  • Well nice to see Garry Moss continue his winning ways today and I have to stay on the bandwagon. Personally I see Freewheel following up his last in the 4:30 at Lingfield. Only up 4lbs he returns to the track for the first time since his 3yr old days where he ran some pretty good horses fairly close on both occasions. On top of that Adam Kirby is booked. Galileo’s offspring are 12/42, 24 places in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. I also like Henry’s Son in the 17:35. George Wood is one of the better conditionals round and gets on well with the horse and the horse is 2/3, 3 places over the distance and I think there is more to come despite the raise. Moving on to Nottingham I like In My Place in the 14:45. His best run last season was on good ground so I think he will improve for the fast ground. He also run well on his only run here in a maiden (horse behind him has won off 80). Fahey has a good record here in 3yr old only races at the track and won this race last year. Finally I have to have a bet Maoi Chin Tire in the 3:50. Barring a run over 6f early in his career he has a 100% record (4/4) at the track over 1m6 to 2m so we know he loves it here. Up 4lbs from for his last win I think there is more to come. Trainer has another winner today and is in good form and excels on the flat over these sorts of trips and the booking of Spencer is eye-catching.

    Nick Mazur 16/05/16 9:04 PM Reply


    • You Mean Henry Smith 5.35 ling don’t you?

      mozzer 16/05/16 11:07 PM Reply


      • Yes sorry

        Nick Mazur 17/05/16 6:41 AM Reply


    • The less said about today the better. Sorry guys. Moral victory I guess is that we beat the prices on most of them.

      Nick Mazur 17/05/16 4:40 PM Reply


  • Having a punt on Illusive force 14s ew 2.40 Newcastle form doesn’t look great but soon as it’s a freshly laid track anything is possible? I have read that some of the trainers think the new surface is one of the best around, personally tho should probably wait a year to have a bet there!!!

    James b 16/05/16 9:35 PM Reply


    • 3.40 not 2.40 ooops

      James b 16/05/16 9:36 PM Reply


      • If, as the market suggests, the key to this contest lies in the Wolverhampton race in which Illusive Force was 5th, anything may indeed be possible. He kept on pretty well there and if the change from cheekpieces to a visor sparks a little improvement, the 16/1 with Bet365 might look a big price. Be lucky!

        J.D. 17/05/16 8:00 AM Reply


        • Cheers J.D hopefully a win or a place and i’l be very happy, but I always expect the worst from what I back 🙂

          James b 17/05/16 2:29 PM Reply


  • Hun 7.00 One For The Boss will probably be a bet for me at 12/1. Probably doesnt deserve to be outsider of the field given that last run was very badly hampered at the first losing about 10l. Played catch up for the rest of the race and ran really well to get well back into contention at one stage

    Ali 16/05/16 9:59 PM Reply


    • Here’s hoping it’s One For Ali :).

      However, Caroline Bailey’s stats are pretty convincing, as are David Bridgwater’s, for whom the booking of Tom Scudamore for Edgar looks significant. Oh dear, what shall I do? 😉

      J.D. 17/05/16 7:43 AM Reply


      • Caroline is 1 from 38 at the track last 5 years. not her happiest hunting ground

        One for Ali? Reminds me of that horse One For Harry

        Ali 17/05/16 9:48 AM Reply


        • Granted, CB’s Huntingdon stats of 1-16 with her ‘chasers don’t make great reading. I was actually referring to the “Micro Angle” stats from Josh’s “10 National Hunt Trainers to Follow”, which I should’ve said (sorry):

          Handicap ‘Chasers (all courses)
          Class 4
          12/1 or under
          39 from 122

          Yeah, One For Harry’s an old pal – dotted up in a hurdle at Carlisle in November 2014 (7/2) then repeated the dose 12 months later at 12/1. Happy days!

          J.D. 17/05/16 2:37 PM Reply


  • For somebody who has a vast knowledge of horse racing Martin.C you really do not have to resort to comments you made about the excellent Invictus game competitors. Stick to comments about horse racing. An apology to J.D is the least you can do. You are better than that comment.

    Roddo 17/05/16 7:03 AM Reply


    • Thanks for the sentiment Roddo, but no apology required; I’ve said all that’s required.

      As you’ve pointed out, let’s stick to filthy lucre, smothered in in bookmakers’ blood! 😉

      J.D. 17/05/16 7:30 AM Reply


  • It will be very interesting to see how things pan out at Newcastle, the track nobody wanted!

    My logic is that on such a wide sweeping track and long bend that anything drawn low over the longer races, round the bend will surely have an advantage.

    A straight mile track on the AW is a terrifying prospect, and as Southwell is the only current AW track we have with a straight chute (5f) and seeing the way they tire there (albeit Fibresand) does not bode well, but my prediction is that a middle draw on the straight track will be a boost and that more often than not they will finish in an arrowhead formation.

    The one form line that should be worth following is Tapeta at Wolves and also any Trainers whose horses gallop on Tapeta..

    Personally, I wont be backing anything there until we have had at least 2-3 meetings.

    Ian 17/05/16 7:34 AM Reply


  • Geno 2.45 Nott. ryan/spencer. 2nd to Irish Optimism.. 2nd 3 times from 5 starts as a juv. Now off a mark of 74 Currently 0/30.
    My source gave Show Palace yesterday.

    Mike Dennis 17/05/16 7:56 AM Reply


  • Will also have a crack at the 8.00 Hun: Phare Isle 12/1 is back on good ground, down to a winnable mark and has a CD win.

    Quite possibly overpriced

    Ali 17/05/16 9:55 AM Reply


    • Couldn’t agree more, though could do with pro assistance from the saddle.
      Martin Smith does very well with the few hurdlers he runs here, so I’ll have to go with Amber Flush, in what appears a very competitive little race.

      J.D. 17/05/16 3:22 PM Reply


  • 3.25 Lingfield, Staintondale Lass
    12/1 1pt e/w or/and win H CDSR 50%
    Staintondale Lass is up 5LBs on her course and distance win in April. That day she looked like there was more to come even with the inevitable weight hike. She is also the only course and distance winner in the field. Stable have only had two runners in the last fortnight and one of them won at 7/1. Staintondale Lass is the stable’s only runner today.

    Pab 17/05/16 10:00 AM Reply


  • IN FOCUS 0-10 when rated 75+ May need to come down a few lbs before winning.

    John Gorton 17/05/16 2:30 PM Reply


    • yep. you could be right there albeit on turf I don’t think he proved it is beyond him- albeit trainer may be working him down to last winning mark, which looks the case post race, given drift etc.
      Us ‘profilers’ had better no dwell on ;Powerful Winds’ victory, another that got away! rating/ground/class drop/break/bugger!

      Josh Wright 17/05/16 6:22 PM Reply


  • oh blimey, Secret Clause 25/1 just went in

    in the trainer stats that one is: M Appleby-Mullen

    wish i’d seen that

    Ali 17/05/16 2:40 PM Reply


  • I did have Secret Clause,halted a rocky ride for stats last few days,I had a bet on edgar as well as Ballyvaughin,The bridgwater yard hasn’t been really firing all season so its not a confident one

    gerry 17/05/16 4:55 PM Reply


    • well done gerry, add that to the pile of 25/1 shots gone in

      my pile isnt very big

      Ali 17/05/16 5:14 PM Reply


  • At least my main bet won Ruth Carr/Sulivan her horses are doing pretty well after first run

    Pab 17/05/16 5:50 PM Reply


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