Members Report: 14/5/16(COMPLETE)

I managed to catch the Al Co race as I was walking into my local town, via the local Coral. After the first two fences that wasn’t in much doubt – a couple of slow jumps down the back – but as Loose Chips and the Vaughan horse went at it from the front there was only going to be one outcome as he sat just behind. That was as confident as I have been on a horse for a while – everything really did look spot on. Those bets tend to come to you and I shouldn’t try and force it. Corrin Wood – well the poor old boy looks gone at the game as everything was right on paper for an improved run. He will keep dropping down and one day they may get him back and he will win a C3 chase on the bridle,maybe. 

I am going to steal a phrase from ‘The Gambler’ who has named us all ‘Team RTP’ – which I quite like – and I was just pleased that I could contribute. An annoying R4 but still just over +9 points on the race. The systems added another +10.5 points to the pot – so a decent +19.5 points for ‘the portfolio’ if backing everything to 1 point stakes/advised stakes. That is how quickly things can change. I think everything was -12 points going into yesterday, for the month, and now we are on +7.5 points. (that doesn’t include the +14 points from the May Trainer that I am not counting due to the late research/posting,but I know some of you were on) Hopefully we can continue to go the right way in the latter half of the month. 

Along with all of your comments, Team RTP is not doing too badly 🙂 

Onto today….

 

TIPS

Nothing today- that 6.30 Uttox looks tricky – the fav does look to have a very good chance against quite a lot of disappointing types who have questions to answer. Set List is interesting for Lavelle and some money for that may be significant after a break,unexposed but maybe lacking in experience for a chase of this nature. Happy to sit it out. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

May Trainer (16/1<)

1.50 Newm – Bertiewhittle UP (close 4th,race developed on side away from him,was a run of an inform/well handicapped horse,turn may not be far away but will always need plenty of luck in running,inc a clear run,collapse in pace and drawn right side where pace is- so, not asking for much!!)

Jumps Handicapper

1.55 Bangor: Dalby Spook (12/1) UP

Other

Varian Fillies: 5.05 Newb – Nezwaah (25/1<) 3rd 13/2

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

2.50 Thirsk – Torrid (28/1<) UP (not one to criticise jockeys really and I forget the last time I ever thought about how much i had just lost on a horse,but from that draw you have two choices – go forwards and try to get across,or drop in and take your medicine – he did neither and was stuck 4/5 wide around a sweeping bend. Game over. Line through that one, very hard/impossible to win doing that unless you are on a very classy horse with a bit in hand. Ran as if in some kind of form though)

3.00 Newm – Poyle Thomas (16/1<) 2nd, shoulder 10/1>17/2  (heartbreak there – I am possibly Spencer’s biggest fan and if he was on this one I think the day may have been paid for. Worth watching just to see the difference in riding styles. Our one all whip,not much arm action. Spencer- no whip,strong hands and heels. Class. Our jockey,and one on Torrid,are still learning their trade though, no problems there)

3.25 Thirsk – Hanseatic (28/1<) UP

4.30 Newb – Danehill Kodiac (6/1<) DNQ

5.35 Newb – Hail Clodius (6/1<)

8.15 Donny – Royale Connoisseur (16/1<) 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.15 Thirsk: Bond Bombshell NR/Ponty Royale – have put those two up in my Daily Punt column – trainer/jockey combo stats from my guide. If you are on their list you should be emailed around 10,will try and post link when I get it. 

Some none stats based horses that caught the eye. I have used geegeez gold and the instant expert tab to see what stands out, with my eyes focussed on handicappers that are below their last mark and may have conditions to suite. So, some analysis,but still not the amount I would do if ‘tipping’ a horse…

4.15 Bangor – Mighty Missle 7/2 3rd and Tidal Way 8/1 Fell- stand out here. The former is obvious and if ready to go may take all the beating. The latter won over CD off 116 in Oct 2013 for Charlie Longsdon- today he races off 101 with the claim. He returned to some form last time out and looked interesting at the odds.

4.35- Barkston Ash -UP- an outlier for this section – I am mentioning him because I tipped him LTO where he got collared late. He has everything in his favour again here. He could bag the rail and he will look like the winner entering the final furlong I think. I have had a stab to try and get those losses back! As always now though,he is open to attack from younger legs. 

5.15 Newm – Doctor Parkes – 16/1 – doesn’t look a 16/1 shot here to my eyes. He is now very well handicapped and his trainer has really hit form in recent days. He will also relish this ground and maybe the drop back to 5 is what will make the difference – he ran well enough LTO, not beaten too far. He has a good record when making a quick return also. He has the Channon horse his side to take him into the race and I couldn’t resist a nibble, albeit I am still feeling my way in with these sprint handicaps. 

That is all for this section today. 

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That is all for today. 

Post complete

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…

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I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

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I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

60 Comments

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  • well done josh,back in business

    gerry 13/05/16 6:48 PM Reply


    • cheers Gerry, was just nice to read one correctly and make a dent in the months losses. Onwards.

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:24 AM Reply


  • Nice one Josh,crowned a good day for me with Clear Spring followed by the Meehan winner at 33/1. Your Forum is becoming a great source for ideas/suggestions and tips.I think another donation is due soon and its well deserved . Tom

    Tom 13/05/16 6:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks Tom, sounds like you had a good day! Any donations are always gratefully received 🙂

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:25 AM Reply


  • Oh cock, didnt fancy getting on the Alan King system last night.

    But that’s alright, cos Al Co just booted that race!

    Well done josh

    Ali 13/05/16 6:51 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Well done with Al Co, keep up the run.
    Did a bit of digging for you on the TTP system.
    Thirsk 2.50 Torrid m easterby 28/1> ……11/2………sky
    3.25 Hanseatic m easterby 28/1>……..26/1 b365
    Doncaster 8.15 Royal Connisseur R Fahey 16/1>…………18/1 bv

    Look forward to your update later or tomorrow.

    Mike Dennis 13/05/16 7:27 PM Reply


    • haven’t heard that expression for donkeys years, mmmmm, can’t think why!

      andy 13/05/16 10:29 PM Reply


    • THIRSK 3.25 HANSEATIC
      Ex Gosden/Abdullah, sold July 2014, 18K
      Dropping back two furlongs, FTO, very quick 4 year old in 2013 over 10F, TS 92.
      Shown nothing since joining Easterby after two year break, five runs since.
      Taken 26/1 Bet365
      Exacta R/V F/C with Trinity Star in morning.

      Clavis 13/05/16 10:31 PM Reply


      • Bloody hell, guys, has someone tipped Hanseatic up? Into 10s this morning…glad I got on at the 26/1 you flagged up last night. Cheers, Paul

        Paul 14/05/16 8:02 AM Reply


  • An initial stab at a couple of outsiders. 3.55 Newbury Johnny Barnes at 28/1. Gosden & Dettori combo, promising form. Also Princess Lir, 3.10 Punch, 18/1. I was told that the connections think highly of this horse but it has not yet shown it on the racecourse. Perhaps the penny will drop?

    Anyway feel free to pick holes or support etc.

    Martin Colwell 13/05/16 8:16 PM Reply


  • Dakgleish/Makin-Boom or Bust continued

    The duo did have 2 winners at Hamilton but not the ones we wanted,2 bullets missed,8 left
    2.15 Thirsk Lady Wooton 12/1
    8.15 Don Gold Flash 7/1

    gerry 13/05/16 8:19 PM Reply


    • 6.15 glengarry came up as well in my hrb from the rules you gave out. Thought I would mention just in case lol

      James b 14/05/16 8:14 AM Reply


  • Also Spark Plug, 5.35 Newbury, his form FTO last 3 seasons is 112! 11/1 available.

    Prince of Arran, 4.30 Newbury, has been withdrawn on a number of occasions but is highly thought of. 11/1 also.

    Martin Colwell 13/05/16 9:31 PM Reply


  • Blond Bombshell just gone NR, Josh

    Paul 14/05/16 7:42 AM Reply


    • sorry, mate, the other one’s gone as well!

      Paul 14/05/16 8:29 AM Reply


      • Brilliant! How odd, that is 30 mins I will never get back!

        Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:00 AM Reply


  • Like the look of Signor Piccolo in 4:35 Thirsk. Has won the last two seasons when fresh, and thought he ran well here on only run so far over 7f, but then fluffed his lines from the stalls over shorter in following two runs at end of season. Only 2lb higher than last win, but slight concern with apparent drift this morning (20’s from 16’s).
    A note of caution: Please don’t follow my selections blind on the back of yesterdays winner @ 25’s, do have a look for yourselves first. Glad a few backed yesterdays’ but just felt I should make it clear I am not an ‘in the know’ person, just had it in my tracker and really felt yesterday could be the day.

    Chris Randall 14/05/16 7:59 AM Reply


  • Is the Dalgleish/Makin sys cofined to h/c as Sindarban won yesterday and seemed to fit the profile

    Dennis 14/05/16 8:21 AM Reply


  • Hanseatic now 10/1, The 26/1 looks outstanding value now,wonder was it members money or a genuine gamble

    gerry 14/05/16 8:35 AM Reply


    • you never know gerry, at that time last night it wouldn’t have taken much money to move it at all. If there was some ‘in the know’ money the bookies would be aware given the yard I think etc. Yep if got 26s you are sitting pretty! I made do with 10s.

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 8:40 AM Reply


  • This forum is buzzing with such interesting posts and selections Team RTP as The gambler put it nice to see josh back in the winners enclosure.

    steve 14/05/16 8:40 AM Reply


  • Cant quite recall Dennis,I am just doing the handicaps and stakes races see how that goes,but sure a winner is a winner and if you want to follow those as well,i don’t thing we can call it a system really until it proves profitable,time will tell,minimum stakes would be advised

    gerry 14/05/16 8:44 AM Reply


  • Had a nice touch myself with the Lucinda Russell pair that I posted up on Thursday so will wait for her entries tomorrow at Market Rasen.

    Got a nice tip from speculateaccumulate for Duke Of Firenze on Thursday and Clear Spring yesterday so will pass on one from them today as clearly they are in form, they are keen on Mahsoob in the Lockinge and focus on its proven stamina in ground on soft side and also the draw in 13 and possible progression as reasons for tip at 10/1 (price when I got their email).

    One from me would be Steal the Scene in the 1.55 at Newmarket, think fast pace and better ground will suit ideally.

    Ian 14/05/16 8:44 AM Reply


  • Tim Easterby”s in cracking form recently and a trainer I’m following this month altho I didn’t catch his winner at York (now 5/44 at course 8 of the losers coming last year). Today he runs Confessional 4.35 thirsk so I’m having a blind punt and hoping for a win but expecting a loss.

    James b 14/05/16 8:45 AM Reply


    • Yep, he was 0/70,11 places at the Dante meeting last 5 years before that -so , he must be in form!! Good Luck

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:27 AM Reply


  • My 2 jumpers today Bangor 4.15 Mighty Missile-got 6/1 last night,bit short now at 7/2
    also steeping on few landmines 6.30 with Belmount,i took 8/1 but its drifting a bit,
    I should read the blog more thoroughly as missed the a king winners,was getting calf on a cow most of day,but still alco softened the blow

    gerry 14/05/16 8:53 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I can confirm Barkston Ash came out of last week’s race at Ripon in good form and we have been fortunate with the draw at Thirsk today. However I don’t think the current price of c. 5/1 has much value in it and although we expect him to be bang there he is there to be shot at. Most of the BA syndicate are also involved with Red Baron and we would be much more confident of his chances to repeat last years win. He is in very good order after Thursday and we are following the same route as last year. The 5/1 last night was a gift and we will be very disappointed if he doesn’t win. Of the two, both at about the same price, Red Baron is by far the best value.

    John W 14/05/16 8:57 AM Reply


    • jw the only concern would be 2hat is a good draw at Thirsk??

      Anecdotally, you needed to be high on straight track but last 2 meetings that has flipped entirely.

      Will be interesting to see what occurs today

      Ian 14/05/16 9:05 AM Reply


      • yep, on good to firm I think high is place to be- has low done well recently because of ease? I can’t remember. But, he will blast out along that rail, if there is a ground bias then he may have work to do, 5s was fair, I wont take 11/4 but hope he runs a bold race. Tumblewind caught the eye for Whittaker but he is in a bit of no mans land and has class to prove.

        Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:09 AM Reply


        • Just returned from Thirsk. BA ran very flat and might need a rest. RB just ran in to one. As for draw. I was surprised to find that the stands rail had been moved 10-25 feet out from the main rail (varied at different points in straight). This took away the long standing advantage of the stand side strip on Good ground. I must have missed the announcement regarding this (as did everyone else I spoke to). No complaints but a bit annoying and something to watch our for in the future at the track.

          John W 14/05/16 7:38 PM Reply


  • Should have said Red Baron race is Thirsk 4.00

    John W 14/05/16 8:58 AM Reply


    • cheers John- yep agree about BA but he looks sure to give it a good go – yea the price is only ok- 1/2 point gets me back my losses on him last time – and well I just cant resist! Yep looked at RB race and missed that price, now 11/4 or so – most of these have proven C2 is beyond them – I did wonder if the capper had him in his grip but this is much weaker than his last race. If he runs like that again then get your champagne glasses ready! Good Luck

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:05 AM Reply


  • Dark Defender 4.10 Newmarket, Daily tip i get, is a good source if you follow him.
    Won at Ayr and York last year.
    Dalgleish/Fanning dropped 4lbs …………..20/1 still available
    Ideal for those keen on the Dalgleish boom or bust. Lol.

    Mike Dennis 14/05/16 9:20 AM Reply


    • Now 11/1 with sky. 16s still available

      Mike Dennis 14/05/16 10:08 AM Reply


  • TEAM RTP! (i can see the keyrings and t-shirts now)

    Just from the tips today there are 16+ races tipped with 20+ racers. Heres to a good one!

    Can i just politely ask that all tips are put IN CAPITALS? It just makes for easier reading in the forum, and easier to catch on scrolling through phones etc. Thanks

    (as a side note for the eager gambler there is a facebook page called ‘the bad man tipster’ which is catching some pace, not racing related but more catching in-play events requiring +0.5goals amongst others. I have been solid quids in+++ from d1 and be on for his 10 to 1000bets, and this guy has proved his worth).Not a plug at all.

    the gambler 14/05/16 9:23 AM Reply


    • Cheers…what is your actual name or do you wish to remain anonymous haha – I have a friend working on the blog at the moment and part of that will be an improved comments function – it is awful to read in general on mobile, and the comments even worse. So, that will be sorted Also working on a forum for donations club members which could work well. I also need to get doing some stuff on Facebook really!

      Josh Wright 14/05/16 9:29 AM Reply


      • Anonymity is preferred for now. Just personal preference.
        My comment was for the reply section by the very kind people who post on here.

        Also personally Josh i have not made a donation, and will do so now. Keep up the good work, a relative newcomer to the races, im hooked.

        the gambler 14/05/16 9:56 AM Reply


        • No problem! Yep aware of that – but am conscious there are a few issues that could be improved, that would improve everyones experience even further. Well, as a newbie, I would say you have stumbled across a decent enough site ha. Yep, it certainly is an engaged, knowledgeable and decent crowd on here. Plenty of shrewdies.

          Josh Wright 14/05/16 10:02 AM Reply


  • My tipster is saying
    Toormore will win the Lockinge
    traners blog is saying the same
    Newbury 3.55
    my is saying omarea may have his day

    Pab 14/05/16 9:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Pab…as an addition to my Lockinge nots I have Toormore clocking 36.36 mph with Kodi Bear clocking 36.17 mph..Endless Drama clocking 36.57 mph in the Irish 2000 gns but is not well drawn according to proform stats but is currently 8/1 so not without a chance.

      John G 14/05/16 10:06 AM Reply


  • 3.55 Newbury..Lockinge stakes notes. According to betdaq stats favs are 50% over past 10 runnings ..(.Hannon snr and junior have won this race 4 times in past 10 years..racing post notes) winners have not been above 8/1 in past 10 runnings so the top of the market is best to concentrate on…Draw and pace according to Betdaq
    pro form info is with Toormore and Gabrial..latter being 50’s so not for me. At tht top of the market Belardo is gd on pace and draw figures being the next best. Belardo has beaten Kodi Bear and Toormore has beaten Belardo…..in the 10 runnings 4 year olds have won 7 and 5 year olds 3 so 4 year olds are better % wise..logic says Toormore will win in terms of a % call and as an alternative Limarto may well out run the odds and get into a place but is not as well drawn as Toormore but ran 39.03 mph over 7 furlongs on gd ground at Longchamp….this is a fast track but my average for that distance is 36.98 mph so the horse is clearly a speedy type and was running on at the end so may well get into the frame…as for the mentioned horse Mahsoob it is currently 12/1 so above the 8/1 ceiling for the history of the race…I have the horse running at an adjusted speed of 35. 36 mph and may be better over a longer distance of the mile..things may happen too fast for the horse with the draw and pace being borderline ok…hope this helps…gd lck with whatever you choose. cheers John

    John G 14/05/16 9:58 AM Reply


    • I think that my Johnny Barnes tip last night is looking good, now 33/1. However it is a poor man that blows his own trumpet!

      Martin Colwell 14/05/16 10:17 AM Reply


      • lol

        m 14/05/16 3:04 PM Reply


  • As regards Hanseatic,i think BET365 were caught with their pants down,the other bookies were 12-14 range,Suppose we should all be checking theses massive variances and take full advantage ( no offence meant to any BET365 employees who might be members,im sure in the haughty environment of odds compiling braces would be de rigueur)

    gerry 14/05/16 11:46 AM Reply


  • i had Bond Bombshell – 7/1 but NR
    5.40 Thirsk Esterby CAPTAIN DUNNE 9/1
    cd winner it is 5f so always gambling

    Pab 14/05/16 12:04 PM Reply


    • Newmarket 4.10 MR LUPTON can pay at 12/1
      Newbury 17:30 VIVRE POUR VIVRE.9/1 competitive race

      Pab 14/05/16 12:17 PM Reply


  • Hi everyone, I should post more often but don’t feel the need cause fantastic stuff on here anyway.
    A few for you guys to cast your eyes over today at nice prices.
    Newm 1.50 EASY TIGER.
    Newm 4.10 MARSHA. Working well and holding some very interesting entries
    Bang 4.15 SWEET WORLD.
    Utto 8.00 KAPGRADE KING.
    Last named will be put away after today. I think this horse is up to this on his first run in handicap.
    Have a great day all

    Jarrod 14/05/16 12:09 PM Reply


  • Nice winner yesterday Josh. It’s been a miserable week so thanks for bailing me out a little with the tip and tie micros. I have had a torrid time without a winner off my personal stuff for about 10 days so I would advise caution if you follow mine but I like a lot today:
    Eutropius-Thirsk 14:50-Now 7lbs below his last win which also happened to be the last time he has had good/firm ground. Has ran well on aw of the same mark so expect him to be there or thereabouts.Would excuse his last two runs on soft/heavy ground
    Lexington Place-Thirsk 16:00 6/9 on good/firm ground handicaps. Should go close off just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark (agian that was the last time he had good/firm)
    Mr Lupton-Newmarket 16:10-Drops down into handicaps. I would excuse the last run on the fact that the ground was too slow.
    Trainer and jockey are 1/1 this season (actually spencer has 3 rides for Fahey today and if I have a good day will be backing Ballesteros in the evening)
    Limato-Newbury 15:55 Now that the ground has dried up he is a ridiculous price for this race. Fully expect him to win this.
    Log Out Island-Newbury 15:20 Excuse his last run which was over too long a distance. This looked like a horse going places last season. Hannon has a great record in 3yr old races here. We know he likes the track having finished 2nd behind Ribchester here on his only run who has since finished 3rd in the guineas. Belmount Uttoxeter 18:30 – originally highlighted by Josh back around the new year. Trainer has a good record here particularly with Sam on board. Gets his preferred good ground today.
    Always Welcome-Donny 20:45 Gosden is flying right now and has a good record here. Form of his win last season has been franked several times. Fitness shouldn’t be an issue and expect a big run.

    Nick Mazur 14/05/16 12:46 PM Reply


    • Log out island. what a race, dominated!

      the gambler 14/05/16 2:22 PM Reply


      • That was a joy to watch, fantastic. Good shout Nick (didn’t have a bean on mind!) Well done.

        Josh Wright 14/05/16 2:31 PM Reply


    • Yeah great pick Nick although was very surprised at the way he done it but that was awesome and Doyloe reckons the horse was pulling back and having a good look around. Eased at the finish 1 for the notebook with much bigger and better things to come with this horse. SUPERB

      Gary Tarrant 14/05/16 2:40 PM Reply


  • Well done Nick, missed that tip/race … gd shout 🙂

    Pablo 14/05/16 2:35 PM Reply


  • I am in Cartago 16/1
    16.30 Newbury
    overpriced Gosden horse

    Pab 14/05/16 2:40 PM Reply


  • Torrid would be the perfect word to describe this afternoons bets,could be heading for third blank day unless Belmount can bail me out,flat racing is very frustrating

    gerry 14/05/16 4:46 PM Reply


  • RE avoiding account closure: do you in your experience advise small but regular withdrawals or large infrequent ones?

    Ali 14/05/16 7:28 PM Reply


    • I personally withdraw £150 at a time give it at least a couple of days between withdrawls. Once was told by a trader that bookies only get alerted by larger withdrawals.

      Nick Mazur 14/05/16 8:05 PM Reply


  • Well that feels a bit better. Nice winner and a couple of decent priced places. Thanks for the kind words guys although I think James Doyle deserves half the praise. Cracking ride that.

    Nick Mazur 14/05/16 8:07 PM Reply


  • Dalgleish/Makin-Boom or Bust Continued

    0/4 after 2 losers today,only one qualifier
    4.45 Ripon Robinelly,was 13/2 now 11/2,hopefully better to come,2 standout chasers tomorrow 4.55 MR Coozan George 11/2 and Bilbrook Blaze 4/1 5.05 Stratford.No Brian Hughes on Jefferson horses but Jamie Hamilton is developing into a fine sub.
    No Irish TTP tomorrow at Navan but Ger Lyons is one to have onside or be wary opposing
    Think its time for a few Guiness

    gerry 14/05/16 8:26 PM Reply


    • Touch Of Sass J Spearing 13:50 Stratford
      something to look afer his 25/1 winnet night odds was 14/1

      Pab 15/05/16 9:01 AM Reply


  • Correction-There is one qualifier in the Bonus Stats
    Now definitely time for a Guiness

    gerry 14/05/16 8:34 PM Reply


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