Members Report: 13/05/17 (COMPLETE)

The ‘probably worth a saver’ horse Duke Of Firenze bounced back to his very best form to win a shade cosily there – I thought he was best on soft these days and wasn’t totally convinced by his recent form. But, he was very well handicapped on old form,the trainer is good with sprinters and he was well drawn on what we knew pre race. You could also make a case on a piece of form here in 2013 and the odd other rare decent run. I can see why some of you had more confidence than I did. Close, but not close enough from me there. 

Thesme ran a fine race and will be winning races from the front this year. The Ryan horse ran a stormer given he missed the break and given where he had to come from. The winner was being eased down so it is hard to say that cost the second. Red Barron ran well but maybe the ‘capper does have him now. Desert Law was poor, that was an educated poke. Maybe now best waiting for the stable to fire a bit more. Candy’s just didn’t run any sort of race and that was most disappointing. 

A tough month so far and I will write a ‘two weekly’ diary next week .As I write the tips are on -20 points for the month. I will get twitchy if that goes past -40. All the systems combined are +11 points to soften that blow. (not inc Thursday’s runners) That includes the TTP systems are on +20.5 points since start of month. 

Anyway, undeterred but with a clear need to work harder, we move on… 

 

***

TIPS

7.35 Aintree

Al Co – 2 points win – 6/1 (general)  WON 5/1 (approx,after 15pR4)

Corrin Wood1 point win – 28/1 (Wh) 25/1 (general) PU

 

I nearly bottled looking at this race given my recent struggles but that would be the easy option and having had a good look at this for about 1h and 20 mins now, these are the two I want to have a go at. 

Al Co – well he was tipped two starts ago at 25s and ran a fine race in 3rd here – but for torrential rain and the ground going very soft he may have been closer. That run was in first time cheekpieces. They were removed NTO at Uttoxeter where he ran a decent enough race again but wouldn’t have relished that ground either. He ran like he was still in some sort of form but with no headgear did have to be kept interested at times. They go for a first time visor here that may make the difference. There is a lot in his favour here, so much so that 6s looks decent enough and he could arguably be favourite. All his best/winning handicap form is when good is in the going description. Indeed in handicaps he is 0/9,2 places soft/heavy. Despite being 11 this is only his 19th chase start, having won 4 already. He also happens to be very well handicapped – 11lb below his last winning mark and arguably this is the first time he has raced in a chase, since his last win in the Scottish National in 2014, where he gets near ideal conditions, even more so when considering the marks he went up to. The trainer is in form – 11 runners last 14 days, none have won but 6 have placed. He is also 2/5,4 places in May. He just ticks plenty of boxes. Oh, and for a dour stayer he will have plenty of pace to aim at. You will be found wanting here if you don’t stay given there are 4/5 front runners in here. I don’t think he will get a better chance over fences, today is the day. Everything looks right. 

Corrin Wood – well a 28/1 stab in the near darkness no doubt but he is 14lb below his last winning mark and went a decent third in a G3 hncp chase at Wetherby off 147 back in Dec 2014. This is his 7th run since then and in truth he hasn’t done much. 2015 is arguably a write off for most of McCain’s horses given they were all sick. Maybe he was ill also. His run two starts ago was ok – he went well for a long way there before fading. Last time out – well maybe he didn’t like the fences and said no thanks. The other factor was McCain’s recent form – it is the best, most sustained/consistent form he has been in for some time and that may rub off on  this one. Given those two main factors (hncp mark/stable form) and the fact that he has the ability and class somewhere, I just had to have a go at that price. He could well be gone at the game, tailed off, but if he were to bounce back, there isn’t much in here that would live with him on some of his old form. This is the kind of bet I could leave alone given my form – put off but the odds ”he surely can’t win’ but that would be going against the way I like to do things.

Of the rest – well the other two interesting ones for me are Mr Moonshine and Doing Fine. MM- he does well at this level but he is 12 now, may cut his throat with others near the front and in handicaps is now 0/16,3 places on good to soft or better. This ground could be too lively for him. The latter was a 50/1 poke for me at Cheltenham and he didn’t do too much – never put in it – or couldn’t live with the pace- before taking a very very heavy fall. They have clearly given him time and he doesn’t have many miles on the, is well handicapped and race conditions look fine. That Chepstow 3rd a couple of runs back was decent enough and an indication that there is some ability there. He is a hold up horse and they may potter him around to get his confidence back. A big run from him wouldn’t be out of the question though, the stable is in decent enough form, and I may have a ‘just in case’ bet on him. (in part as I backed him LTO also) (another Duke of Firenze maybe!)

The rest have enough questions to answer for me. Cocktails at Dawn has stamina questions and I don’t want to take a chance on that at single figure odds. He may relish it, clearly has ability, trainer in form etc. But, he is on a high enough mark now and could be in better form. He will like the ground though and if he does stay may not be far away. There will be no hiding place here though. Kruzhilinin’s jumping can be iffy, he is now 0/5,0p Aintree (includes national fences runs),0/5,0p OR 141+ and 0/11,2 places in races with 12+ runners. His jumping could be put to the test in this race, surrounded by others, and it found him out a bit at Cheltenham. He clearly has ability but is on a high enough mark and is being asked to do a few things he has yet to do. At his price, happy to take him on, on that basis. Kie has stamina questions, the last chase he won was very weak and hasn’t produced much of note, and he is 0/7,0 places in C2. 0/4,0p OR141+ – not for me today. Cue, emphatic, stamina laden victory!

Loose Chips is a fine old horse but he won’t be able to dominate here I don’t think – albeit I thought that the last day. But he is now 0/12, 3 places left handed in career and 0/5,0 places at C2. The last race really was the time to catch him and I am still kicking myself for dismissing him too easily given he had everything in his favour- mainly RH/C3, and we backed him the time before. Idiot. Anyway, he has some questions now but may give it a bold go from the front- or try too at least. No Noel either, and he knows him so well. Tom George’s charge has enough to prove including well being, liking for a sound surface and stamina. Class question also and 0/4,1 p OR 131+. Bucking The Trend looks progressive, I think, is a prominent racer (he may want to lead also) but he looks best the other way also. 0/5,0 places LH chasing. So, that would be a concern. He is up in the weights and I am not sure as to the strength of that last race given the two that chased him home – and Kilbree Kid only ran OK NTO at Wincanton. Presneting Junior is still 6lb abive his last winning mark and the trainer is a bit cold – 0.8,0 places last 14 days and 0/15 last 30 days. He does tick plenty of profile boxes but am unsure whether he looks ready to take advantage of race conditions. I would hope others are a tad better treated than him in here, but a better run wouldn’t shock me totally. Deadly Sting is unexposed and we know what that means – he can never be truly discounted – well i suppose no horse can ever be. He will need to step up here on what he has done before and this could come as a shock against experienced rivals. A little bit to prove and the trainer is now 0/16,0 places with runners here. Small sample that he will correct at some point no doubt. I would be disappointed if he proved to be best on the day in this race. 

So, that’s the lot. I don’t think I have missed anything and am happy with why I am not on the others at the odds etc etc. There are a couple where improved runs would not totally surprise of course. The pace should set up for both of these – Loose Chips/Mr Moonshine/Bucking The Trend all like to front run – Cocktails At Dawn is usually handy but maybe held up for stamina. Kruzhlinin can be up there also. I don’t think they will hang around and this should be a true test. There is a chance Al Co hates the headgear but the way he responded to it two starts ago indicates it should be fine and if he is travelling well over the first couple he won’t be far away come the end. 

Good Luck. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

5.25 Aint – Gold Chain – UP

Other

Varian Fillies (16/1<)

3.30 York – Aljuljalah – 2nd 9/1

A King Flat (16/1<)

4.40 York: Top Tug – 3rd 

4.50 Newb: Primitivo WON 13/2/ Rainbow Dreamer 3rd 

5.40 York: Master Blueyes WON 10/1

 

TTP MAIN SYSTEM BETS 

3.10 Newb – Desert Force DNQ / Francisco (both 6/1<) DNQ

4.40 York –  Chancery DNQ/ Fattsota (9/1<) DNQ

4.50 Newb -Snan (6/1<) DNQ

9.00 Ham – Little Belter (any odds) 3rd 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing today. Appears a lot above and in the comments already. It must be the most profitable online comments section in racing! 🙂 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

58 Comments

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  • No offence Josh but I don’t know what made you think he was better on soft, besides 1 run at Carrerick his other 9 runs on it poor imho, looks to me like they been running him on it to get his mark back down. I was happy with the cdg figs & draw but looking a bit deeper, that horse he finished 2nd to last time, Encore D’or, he’s a beast & has clocked two fast runs in a row. Relatively lightly raced aged 7 only 29 runs won 6 has clocked 6 decent figs from me 4 of those in defeat all on 5f good ground. A bit late for a peaking sprinter 5-6yo but was considered Royal Ascot & Glorious Goodwood material before that.

    & ‘er, Figures achieved on ‘good ground running on good ground are one of the most reliable & accurate things we have.

    Anyway, just a coincidence but chicken dinner for me….

    Andy Silvers 12/05/16 5:34 PM Reply


    • His price is likely spoilt now but the Epsom dash will suit the Duke. And the trainer said that he was in good form for todays race. Last week I was expecting a good run here then to win at Epsom but the stable decided this was too juicy a prize. I had 14/1 the night before and so am happy. Down the pub soon, catch up later.

      Martin Colwell 12/05/16 6:10 PM Reply


    • Hi Andy, firstly i never take offence (well, unless my integrity is ever questioned and then I go spare) esp when horse related – the point of writing the way i do etc is so that you can do what you have just done and raise a valid question about my thinking on a particular horse.My thinking with him wasnt – he is best on soft he wont handle this ground necessarily – I was yet to be convinced he wanted it quick but he had hardly raced on in and plenty of old form which suggested it was fine – his most recent winning form had been on soft, so clearly handled it and in that context I thought his Epsom run could have been better, and maybe his one LTO – thinking that he would need to better those by some way to get involved here. But, in context that this was probably the plan, it makes that irrelevant to a point and at least it showed he was in form.
      I got it wrong, simple as that. Not as wrong as some, he was high enough up in my thinking not to be dismayed with myself, just clearly not quite high enough!
      I hope you enjoyed your chicken 🙂

      Josh Wright 13/05/16 6:20 AM Reply


      • Your Thesme ran well improved 12lb on my figs (fillies only easily!) & along with Brando (by Pivotal as was winner) should be back at some point –

        Doctor Sardonicus nearsert @ finish – could be one for a 6f h’cap

        Don’t think they’ll go up much for such a bunch finish, the Duke won the Epsom Dash off 97, might just get in slightly lower imho

        Andy Silvers 13/05/16 8:31 AM Reply


        • Yep, I will re watch that a few times as a few could come out of that. The winner did it well and if anything hit the front too soon, clearly likes to come back through horses – I wouldn’t want to be taking him on too much NTO but his odds may be compromised and depends on draw if he does go to Dash – could get stuck behind plenty. Don’t think a 7lb rise would stop him in that form, just then whether something has a bit in hand.

          Think the track bias may have evened out a bit given how Brando ran – or he is just very talented – did very well to get that close all things considered. He could be smart.

          Josh Wright 13/05/16 8:41 AM Reply


  • Thanks to James b for his Perth bet Resolute Reformer. got 8/1.

    Mike Dennis 12/05/16 5:40 PM Reply


    • me to …thanks James b. It won cosily.

      Tony Mc. 12/05/16 6:33 PM Reply


  • Fran Berry was a top jockey in ireland but its a tougher job in uk more so for a top stable like R Beckett,0-29 last 14 days and 0-12 at newmarket tells its own story.I would imagine Beckett is introducing him gently,getting him on the less fancied runners until he finds his feet,His mount in the 7.55 should be interesting,crowning glory drifting from 9/1-14/1

    gerry 12/05/16 5:42 PM Reply


  • Should anyone wish to join me on the road to boom or bust on the Dalgleish/Makin road to boom or bust there are 2 qualifiers tomorrow if the track at hamilton remains good 6.55 so its war 10/1 paddy power 9/1 betvic 7.55 Farkle Minkus 16/1 BET365.There is some market support for the first,might be that it won twice last may.I will test it out over 10 bets before continueing or binning

    gerry 12/05/16 6:24 PM Reply


    • So its war is interesting. Had a run in April prior to winning in May last year. This year a run in April and now running in May could it be on again?

      Andy 12/05/16 6:50 PM Reply


    • Thanks for Mardar I got 22s 🙂 I’m following you on the Makin Dalgleish bòom or bust, just wanted to ask if Sindarban 6.15 is a qualifiyer as it’s popped up on my list?

      James b 13/05/16 4:24 AM Reply


  • the 16/1 gone 14/1 now

    gerry 12/05/16 6:26 PM Reply


  • I was quite taken with how Mightaswellsmile (2:55 York tomorrow) finished her race at Chelmsford LTO. Ok it was probably a poor race but she was miles behind and had no idea about racing until the last furlong where she downed a couple of pints of rocket fuel and absolutely flew home, it was quite an extraordinary way to finish the race. In the context of this race it could mean nothing but they are 2yo’s and they can improve! I also have no idea about 2yo’s or Maiden’s so I had a small bet at 48.0 on BF so I’m hoping she doesn’t get so far behind this time and produces another explosive finish to give me a run for my money.

    Chris Albin 12/05/16 7:27 PM Reply


  • Salvation is at hand for those who like real horse racing at Aintree.My bets for tomorrow are the dream team of George/Brennan.Ballinvarrig 5.55 4/1 and O Maonlai 7.35 at 12/1.The latter was well backed last time out before withdrawal.Hopefully one will keep the good run going

    gerry 12/05/16 7:52 PM Reply


  • The Evans horse My Lord is interesting in the 5:20 Newbury, especially at 12/1 pp, claimer booked. top speed rating in the race,top OR in race..placed both starts at course, Evans is 20% at the track in the last year. horse dropping back in trip where he won in March… any thoughts?

    Tuckers Luck 12/05/16 8:19 PM Reply


    • 2nd 🙁

      Tuckers Luck 13/05/16 5:05 PM Reply


  • Aintree 8:10 – Chidswell 11/1 missed last season but has won when fresh. Been waiting for the step up to 3m and track should suit. Hoping they see this as an opportunity to win a hcp before going chasing.

    Chris Randall 12/05/16 8:22 PM Reply


    • Chidswell NR

      mozzer 13/05/16 9:57 AM Reply


  • 5.25 Aintree, last years winner goes again off a lower mark. Ran well in its warm up race LTO. 5/1 about now. Dubh Elle. The favourite is that dodge pot The Missus.

    If I hear anything in the morning I will post around lunch time.

    Martin Colwell 12/05/16 10:01 PM Reply


  • Hi Martin, l make Dubh Eile 14lb higher than last year? But i wouldn’t put anyone off backing it.

    Chris Randall 13/05/16 6:45 AM Reply


  • Hello yes Dubh Ellie won off a mark of 104 last year 118 today.

    steve 13/05/16 7:01 AM Reply


    • Ok sorry had it the other way round! Good prep run LTO I would say.

      Martin Colwell 13/05/16 10:44 AM Reply


  • 3:10 Newb. Clear Spring 16/1 won this last year with Englishman back in 4th. Finished behind that one on come back, but probably needed the run. Likes this time of year and been backed from 33’s.

    Chris Randall 13/05/16 7:13 AM Reply


    • Cheers mate…took 17.0 on Betfair unfortunately, but still a result.
      Paul

      Paul 13/05/16 2:13 PM Reply


    • Nice one Chris……got 25s…cheers mate.

      Tony Mc. 13/05/16 2:14 PM Reply


      • Got 26s on 25ew. Team RTP!

        the gambler 13/05/16 2:18 PM Reply


    • Nice tip Chris, Channel 4 were amazed!
      Thanks

      Clavis 13/05/16 2:50 PM Reply


    • great call well done

      Ian 13/05/16 3:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris

      Pablo 13/05/16 4:18 PM Reply


  • Hello chris yes clear spring being well backed also 3lb lower than last year.

    steve 13/05/16 7:23 AM Reply


    • Yep, looks worth a punt, one of the few in here to handle soft on first glance. Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 13/05/16 9:45 AM Reply


      • He’s a joint top cdg with Golden Steps

        & The Quarterjack is tops in the 520 & only one with cdg stats 20/s+?

        Andy Silvers 13/05/16 11:39 AM Reply


    • trainer in cracking form too! – relative to past few seasons at this stage.

      Ian 13/05/16 1:05 PM Reply


  • What a great day Mr ‘the sire’ Pivotal had yesterday, 1st 2 in a 5f sprint & the Dante, Ben Aitken said a few years back (or was it the Juicy Plums chap?) how effective he can be at York

    anyway 2 for today

    13May16 2:20 York Cl3 12K Paddy Power (IRE) 3-y-o, m Rag Top (IRE)
    13May16 5:10 York Cl3 12K Apache Storm (GB) 4-y-o, m Best Side (IRE)

    Meanwhile, if anyone’s desperate for another 100 to follow (can u believe, 2 horses per page ? ?)

    http://images.racingpost.com/pdfs/100winnersflat2016.pdf or visit RP main page.

    Andy Silvers 13/05/16 8:20 AM Reply


    • Page 46 nice little index of all on one sheet.

      Andy Silvers 13/05/16 8:47 AM Reply


      • Thanks for the HTFollow Andy,i have 5 htfollow books and I reckon 80-90% of the 3yolds are in all 5 books,why do they keep going for the obvious.Cheers BoB

        BoB 13/05/16 8:58 AM Reply


        • 3.45 Nby Mamillius – trainer put him up as his one to follow in RP Weekender couple of weeks ago, says he’s big.

          Andy Silvers 13/05/16 11:37 AM Reply


  • Er, the geezer that told me Lay 11 @ York told me to back 14

    Last race yesterday Box 14 had a trainer 4 race 33/1 winner

    1st race today, last two times stalls center, high draws have won, of those that have had a run this season as did last 5 winners, only one with previous going & distance win, drawn 14, New Road Side, me just got £3 on at 160/1 to see if I can trade out at some point……

    Andy Silvers 13/05/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • 100/1 EW Cockney Boy 345 Nby Proform says sire like soft – 3/10 J/T combo & both reasonable at the course stats

    Andy Silvers 13/05/16 11:18 AM Reply


    • Cheers Andy…can get 125s now, but I’ve just had a tiny dart at 28/1 place only (Sky and Paddy).
      Paul

      Paul 13/05/16 12:14 PM Reply


  • My tipster said CLEAR SPRING
    and won 25/1 with poor draw

    Pab 13/05/16 2:19 PM Reply


    • my tipster said clear spring on the basis of the draw in soft LOL….still we are both happy!

      Ian 13/05/16 3:03 PM Reply


  • Clear Spring. Great pick Chris Randall. That sets me up nicely for a pint or two and a curry tonight. Well done !

    CHRIS 13/05/16 2:20 PM Reply


    • There was huge gamble on that horse,i have got 17/1 he was 30/1 for a moment
      but i have treiner in my tracker

      Pab 13/05/16 2:48 PM Reply


  • Well done Chris great spot, couldn’t believe the drift in the price, some great tipsters on here Josh.

    Roy Bedford 13/05/16 2:24 PM Reply


  • Thank you Chris

    Barry 13/05/16 2:29 PM Reply


  • oh blimey, i thought i just missed a Meehan Maiden qualifier but then just realised it was Class 4: system narrows down to 5 and 6.

    Anyway, we’d best keep an eye on this: he may have stepped his maiden game up a class

    Ali 13/05/16 2:53 PM Reply


    • Smuggler’s Moon at Newbury is the maiden no more

      Ali 13/05/16 2:55 PM Reply


    • Ha yep i am on trains today and thought i had missed him for a moment! Will dive back into stats but will be reason long term they are left

      Josh Wright 13/05/16 3:28 PM Reply


  • What happened today with Meehans Maidens as noted yesterday?? Is it only certain courses. 20/1 winner today at Newbury.

    Tony-S 13/05/16 3:01 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony,its a class thing,the micro for c5/6…there will be some stats for why C4 above are not included. Will be his historical record,does have odd winner,will check stats but will lose over time. But,class is about the quality of horse,oppo, if he has better horses this year,bought better etc etc,then he may improve on those stats. He I hitting form now. Backing all of his maiden runners hasn’t been wise from memory.

      Josh Wright 13/05/16 3:27 PM Reply


  • An experiment but new style format at last….

    #CDG’s Aintree Fri 13th night meet – like 3rd top The Road Ahead EW 7.05 for price & maybe Minella Forfitness 5.55 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-kKBD0Xj0uWSijA_X-FCPxopMhTlusGVhZuUJngsx8o/edit?usp=sharing

    Hope you don’t mind Josh

    Andy Silvers 13/05/16 4:08 PM Reply


  • I note O Maonlai is to be ridden by Tom O Brien and not Paddy Brennan,Maybe he is on Baby Minding Tonight,oh well

    gerry 13/05/16 4:44 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, couple of nice winners for Alan King system today. In fact all of his horses ran well today, seems like his stable hitting form

    Allan 13/05/16 5:06 PM Reply


  • Sindarban wins for makin and dalgleish Gerry! Come on the treble 🙂

    James b 13/05/16 5:28 PM Reply


  • Al Co won easily Josh….nice one to get back with…I had 6/1…well done lad.

    Tony Mc. 13/05/16 6:50 PM Reply


  • Excellent call Josh and an all round thank you to everyone on here … this is a superb well informed blog and long may it continue.

    Richard 13/05/16 7:53 PM Reply


  • Brilliant results from lots of people on here today! Great day!

    Tom 13/05/16 8:53 PM Reply


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