Well my favoured approach to betting on the horses, the ‘portfolio’ approach, is starting to work as it should – when the tips were flying the systems struggled and now I find myself struggling a tad, the systems are coming to the rescue, for now. Another +17 points to add to the system pot. Hopefully they can continue over the next few weeks.
You know your ‘stats/angles of interest’ shortlisting antenna are a bit off when your best results is a non-runner! The two unraced horses drifted quite badly and ran as such. Reblis received a strange ride given he stays well and had recently been sent to the front. I am annoyed they didn’t at least try and dictate but maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference. But, those stats will pay over time so do make a note. Anyway, I would take +14 points every Monday post – if you had placed 1 point on everything.
3.10 Wincanton –
Ruapehu – 1 point win – 10/1 – UP -7.5/1 (after R4) into 3/1. No excuses there at all. Never really traveled,got the easy lead,ground fine. Still no idea why they put headgear on,maybe he didn’t like it.
This horse shouldn’t be 10/1 really, that is taking the micky a bit against his actual chance in here – your eyes wouldn’t fall out if he had been put in at 5s I don’t think. Firstly he looks like he relished good ground and hasn’t raced on firmer under rules – I will assume at this price that he may well like it even more. The weather is a slight niggle but I have checked the BHA website and the ground is proper good to firm apparently and there is a chance of showers later – BBC Weather for Wincanton indicates that light rain is due to come in around 3pm, with is steadily getting much worse as the afternoon goes on. So, unless the heavy rain arrives earlier than predicted we should be fine. If there is soft in the description come race time he won’t be winning. That is the chance we take here.
For his age he is lightly raced, 3/10 in chases, he is 2/2 around here in handicap chases and won this race, under this rider, last year. I suspect, in that context, that his last run may have been a pipe opener for this – and he went well for a long way there. They put cheekpieces on here and I don’t really know why – hopefully no adverse affects and if it sharpens him up some more then great. Given what I’M in Charge did the other day here, there is some strength in depth to his form and he looks sure to give it a good go. He does like to lead – Cowards Close is the other one that likes to go forward – but he is unpredictable and at some point Kevin Jones should be able to get to the front, as long as he doesn’t use up too much gas engaging in a pace duel.
Ultimately, he is no 10/1 shot here and must have a decent chance of running a good race and as always as long as they are jumping the last in contention I am happy – and that has been rare in recent weeks, rather all or nothing! (with not much ‘all’ and plenty if nothing!)
Of the rest…
Well if the ground does stay like this then KK for the dream chasing team (I think George/Brennan may have paid for a weekend break already over last couple of months,even if betting £5s/£10s) may well take all the stopping, as the market suggests. We backed him the last day where everything was in his favour and he was just one paced, having looked dangerous. He takes a drop in class here – 4/6,5 places in C4 – George is 3/14, 9 places with handicap chasers here in last 730 days. He may be much the best in here and is so well handicapped. Saver material at 2s maybe – I have had a muggy forecast on him to beat the selection – which I can see happening as a likely outcome if R is leading coming to the last, KK chasing him.
In truth you wouldn’t fall off your armchair if any of these won. The Sherwood and Nicholls’ horses are lightly enough raced and the former has more to come over fences. He ran OK LTO but nothing more than that – may not have liked track, who knows, and has had a break – breathing op?? – trainer is on fire and he could win. Minella is a bit unpredictable and the blinker return – they worked first time on but then didn’t do much, but that change may spark him into life. Cowards Close has enough to prove now but has ability. Trainer is 0/17,0 places here in last 730 days which doesn’t inspire confidence. BallyKnockLad is unexposed, lightly raced and that type can never be dismissed. He has had a longer break and you would think some may be sharper in here and doesn’t have as much chasing experience as some in here. Something to prove, but he may well do that, albeit he wasnt in great form when last seen. A bit of guesswork there.
So, the selection should out-run those odds, on paper at least! 🙂 He should have track position on some of the young guns that maybe trying to close and hopefully his jumping can put some of these under pressure. At some point they will have to close, as I doubt he will be stopping – some may simply be faster than him and do just that, but we should be entertained for a few minutes if nothing else.
That will be all for tips.
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
5.00 Bev – Scarpeta WON 3/1 > 11/8
8.25 Chep – Fuzzy Logic 2nd 5/1 / Taste The Wine UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.20 Sedge – Ever So Much – 5/1 – UP- this is a bit of a ‘profile’ horse I suppose but he stood out when using geegeez instant expert to have a flick through this card – in that he is now 2lb below his last winning mark – on closer inspection in handicaps he is 2/3 around here over fences,2/8,4 places OR 101-110 (0/5,0p OR111+) and needs decent ground. Good to Firm is a slight question but he should be ok. The market will be most important I think – if he drifts then today may not be the day! – he is 5/9,7p when 4/1 or shorter SP. 0/12,0 places above this. The pace also intrigued me – he is a hold up horse but there are 4 of them that do like to get on with things – they may all go a bit quicker than ideal and set it up for him. We shall see. On his ‘profile’ pointers he looked interest.
7.25 Chep – Double Czech – 4/1 – UP I have to echo James’ thoughts below on this one. The trainer/jockey combo here is electric (they also team up with one in 7.55- ground/fitness question but you never know!) The trainer is in superb form, the horse is in decent form and most importantly he likes soft- which it may well be come race time. This one should be going very very very close for me.
Tipperary…I do forget to look at my Bonus stats to thanks to Gerry for highlighting. McCreery’s maiden runners are worth keeping onside here over time and his Ocotillo (4.45) UP and Silver Thistle (7.45) UP are worth a second glance. The profit levels at SP and BFSP suggest a few bigger priced ones go in here. I am happy to just back them blind in truth, on the strength of his stats.
That is all for today. Good luck.
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
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