Members Report: 09/05/16 (COMPLETE)

A few horses of interest below that you may wish to have a closer look at. Hopefully a few of them give backers (that’s me) a run for our money. A few things to note at the start of a new week…

Whats Coming Up This Week?

  • York appear to have some big race meeting on this week or something! I will be spending the next two days with my head stuck in my HRB account trying to find any trainer angles/stats of interest and any other general stats that may be interesting. I have been pleased with how this approach has worked so far – the stats helping you and I to a few decent winners at Aintree (11/4,9/1,16/1), Punchestown (50/1,12/1,20/1 + some more) Chester (10/1 for Fahey,+ couple of draw stats winners 11/2,8/1, 9/1 winner for Balding). This ‘stats pack’ – and as I write I have no idea as to just how useful it will be! – will be exclusive for Donations Club Members – so, you know what to do if you wish to be sent that 🙂 
  • York – I have yet to look ahead to the meeting in terms of stats/trends but I am sure there will be a couple of races to try and attack. I will plot that strategy later on – but on the whole  I will be relying on any micro system research above. 
  • TTP- Summer Jumps/Summer All-Weather – I will get this complete at some point this week hopefully. Having looked through all of the tracks that have summer jumping between May-Oct I would class Cartmel/Fontwell/Market Raisen/Newton Abbot/Perth/Stratford/Uttoxeter/Worcester as the main venues – ignoring Bangor (6 meetings) / Hexham (8 meetings) / Sedgefield (6 meetings) So, that is about 8 hours of research ahead, plus another 6 or so for the AW tracks. I will fit that in at some point. And I have decided I will just give that one away for free – I think it will be worth about £10-£17 and I will include some ad hoc donations links in it , for those of you who will use it regularly and may wish to chip into the pot. 
  • Weekly Diary post will be up at some point and I do need to have a good look over the Victoria Cup – on that point I do want to do a load of trainer stats research into all things ‘sprint’ handicaps – 5-7f. 
  • Finally, I did have a good read of The Weekender and they had a feature on Jane Chapple-Hyam and I did start to have a dive into her stats etc. I will pull together a ‘trainer in focus’ piece on her at some point – maybe another video. That may get bumped to next week but I have found one micro for hers already. 

That little lot should keep me busy enough over the next few days. Coffee at the ready. 

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What is this blog all about? 

I just wanted to highlight three recent examples of what this blog is about and the kind of thing that really does put a smile on my face. There are the systems and the tips – and ultimately that is what the ‘profit’ level for the blog is decided on.

BUT, I have always said that you cannot beat finding your own winners – that feeling does top everything else – that is why I write the amount I do when previewing a race, so it may help with your own thinking and may well develop it (as mine is all the time), it is why I produce the stats guides and why I bang on about the two best tools in the business, HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold . So, the examples…

  1. The Victoria Cup – Nick left a comment to say that he used my stats/trends and shortlist to back two horses EW at 25/1 and 50/1 – they both placed (latter dead-heat I believe), ignoring my own tips. Brilliant. I wish I had done the same! 🙂 But, that is what that info is there for. I will watch the video again but I believe that the 50/1 runner may have had trouble in running,an unlucky loser maybe. I don’t know how I would have coped with leaving a 50/1 winner on the shortlist. A timely reminder to always focus more on the bigger priced ones!
  2. Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016. It would appear at least two of you used the bonus stats (looking at Irish Racing) to back a fairly comfortable 14/1 winner at Leopardstown on Sunday for the dream team of Lyons and Keane. He was 25/1 or so at BetfairSP. It really is a bloody good resource, you should get a copy below 🙂 
  3. Finally. A young guy called Jack tweeted me – well we chat quite a bit and I am sure I will bump into him in Ireland at some point for a beer or three. He has been following the blog for over 18 months or so – and I think fair to say he was fairly new to the game back then, at least in knowledge terms. He started betting small (£2/£5 then £10s) and built up his bank, using the blog content and developing his own skills and I think has around £2k to play with now, moving onto betting £20 per point. Anyway, I have been encouraging him to join Geegez Gold for a couple of months now, which he did last week. And, well I will just quote what he tweeted me… “oh I do love instant expert! Would never have picked this out without it (what followed was a screenshot of his Bet365 account – £20 EW on Don’t Bother Me at 25/1) I feel the 18 months of reading your thoughts has enabled to me to understand what I’m doing opposed to if I just landed at geegeez myself“. Now, you wouldn’t believe the satisfaction that I get from reading stuff like that. It is, quite frankly, the whole purpose of what I do and Jack is a perfect example of the journey that we are on all, whatever our starting point. And I have a hell of a lot more to learn. Anyway, I thought I would share that. And of course, I think you should all try Geegeez Gold -you really should take the two week £5 trial here>>> : )  

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Right, that is enough from me…some horses…

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TIPS

None. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

Tom George Hncps Chases: 8.00 Towc – Valseur Du Granval WON – 15/2 > 6/1 (after 20p R4), also 6/1 SP

 

TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.10 Muss: Bayan Kasirga WON 11/1 (bet365 backers free bet 5.45 I believe)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

I have used my TTP guide for the following…

2.40 Muss- Galahad – 9/2 – UP 8/1- Fahey is 3/9, 6 places (or was before season started) with 1st time out 2 year olds here – the market suggests that he is the one most likely to trouble the fav – backers of the Ellison horse I suppose are relying on one of his two recent runs being enough here – which it may well be – I can’t say you would be confident he will improve and he is open to attack from one of the unknown quantities, hopefully this one. 

5.50 Wind – Faction – 16/1- 20/1- UP 33/1-  Balding has impressive win and place stats with his maiden runners here. As with all maidens the market may well guide as to this ones chance, but he does have the odd big priced winner go in. I am happy to have a nibble to find out. 

6.20 Wind – Fool To Cry – 9/1 – NR- probably the one I am most looking forward to just because Varian’s stats are so strong here in handicaps and even more so in 3yo only handicaps – he is also in excellent form and this one will be fit – and may well have got bogged down in the mud LTO. They clearly think she wants this trip and she is in the ‘could be anything’ category. Interesting. (trainer/jockey are also 8/23,12 places here with all runners over last few years – thanks to Geegeez Gold for that snippet-you really should take the two week £5 trial here>>> : ) –   – they also team up with one in the 5.50 who appears well fancied) 

7.00 Towcester – Reblis -6/1 – UP (strange ride all things considered) I don’t have the enthusiasm to jump into these summer chases at the moment following recent efforts but this old warrior caught the eye for a few reasons. Firstly geegeez tells me that father/son are 4/12,6 places when teaming up here. So, that is a ‘way in’. Reblis is getting on but he is well handicapped and has been running consistently. They also remove the headgear after a few runs in it – that caught my eye mainly because despite him being renowned as ‘a hard ride’ and maybe reluctant these days, all wins have come with no headgear on. That may well spark him up. PACE also intrigued me as he could well get an uncontested lead and if he can get these on the stretch around here, he/we could well have some fun. Now, something younger/progressive may be too sharp for him and the top 2 are being well backed, but he looks sure to give a run for backers, his first try around here.

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…

GET YOUR COPY HERE>>>

I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive reports for Aintree and Punchestown. There will be plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • I do like the Timeform free site re-vamp full of useful info:

    Like

    Smart Stats

    33% Mrs J. Harrington’s strike rate in the last 14 days (saddles EASY PASS)
    35% Pat Smullen’s strike rate on favourites since the start of the 2011 season (rides ALISHAN)

    Jessica Harrington is 1-1-2 & Dermot Weld 0-1-1 race history

    Favourite is 3/3 as is highest 3rd of draw
    But before you dash off to back the evens D Weld favourite – he is 1 win from 50 runners at track ? ?

    Probably win by 10l’s now….

    Andy Silvers 09/05/16 6:46 AM Reply


    • 1st race Rosc 540

      Andy Silvers 09/05/16 6:47 AM Reply


      • Hi Andy, The Form stats on the betdaq site is pretty good…I have been checking the Horse stats combined with going and favourable draw…this threw up Blazing Beacon (NO draw as a jumps race) in 16.50 at Limerick which was also top in the Geegeez site in their instant expert column so may be a system there..was 26.00 on Betdaq so tasty price…worth keeping an eye on those runners in the future. gd lck.

        John G 09/05/16 10:00 AM Reply


  • Ifan is a qualifer in 15.50 at Brighton i.e all green in horse stats,green in going and Vaughan top trainer in the race…short price though with favs 26% and we are asked to take evens i.e half the chance price…

    John G 09/05/16 10:09 AM Reply


  • Yes i and at least another had that lyons horse yesterday,he had two qualifiers.The irish flat stats are very concise but effective.The thing with racing this side of the water is that the amount of metings are small,usually concentrated at weekends with a scattering around the country so its not overwhelming as can be the case with the uk schedule,as pointed out by andy though you wouldnt be rushing to back welds at roscommon,id say weld knows well what hes doing and aware of the dire record,probably giving the horses experience at a low key meeting

    gerry 09/05/16 10:23 AM Reply


  • hi josh, was that 50-1 victoria cup unlucky loser the one I backed, I had £10ew on earth drummer, got 79 to 1 on betfair, finished 5th, comments were
    not clear run, hampered, had to switch right, finished well.

    malcolm pendrey 09/05/16 11:23 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm, yep I believe that is the one. I am yet to watch the race again but believe he may have finished closer with a bit more luck. Plenty of positives for the shortlist and I will try and make sure I tip the 50/1 placed horse next time! Am sure there will be a few to take from that race.

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 12:05 PM Reply


  • CARTMEL Josh I was visiting my daughter in the village,last weekend and was told that Cartmel is planning to have flat racing
    in the near future,i’ve searched,but can’t find anything on line,she was informed by someone who knows the time of day.have you
    heard anything with all your contacts,if true, WOW the north west will have two incredible racecources.

    Mike Horne 09/05/16 12:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, no i haven’t but it wouldn’t surprise me if someone on here may know more than me! I do like watching the jumps at that track and should really visit. Flat racing would be fun, probably a front runners paradise maybe. I will watch with interest. That obviously wouldn’t be until next season at the earliest although am sure not too many changes would be required.

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 1:14 PM Reply


  • i have tip York 3.15
    Eastern Impact 20/1
    not my,that girl is superb,very much from Jabba circle,take a look that gerry

    Pab 09/05/16 1:52 PM Reply


  • Come on the Bayan Kasirga!!! A place at worst never looked in doubt in running. Systems are flying

    Ali 09/05/16 3:14 PM Reply


    • Ah the joy of a portfolio approach eh!? Working as it should. Tips were flying/systems were not, Tips not doing much/systems are flying. The flat is so rife for a good micro system or two given number of runners/ways in etc. Super. Yep, brilliant ride – Sammy Jo spotted before she turned in that she needed to get a move on – very good tactical brain that given Tudhope was able to dictate his own pace.

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 3:19 PM Reply


      • traded 44 in running, i know as thats the price i got! (sorry to gloat) Thanks Josh

        James M 09/05/16 3:32 PM Reply


        • bloody hell. You bugger haha. I did have a bit more than my usual 1 point on having looked at race/her chance in a bit more depth so I wont complain! Well done, top stuff. Gloating is allowed when getting a price like that 🙂

          Josh Wright 09/05/16 3:36 PM Reply


        • blimey, that’s good wheeling n dealing. I put a point each-way on since i was confident of a good run and was chuffed with my supplementary place money!

          Ali 09/05/16 7:07 PM Reply


  • Another big priced winner,great stuff josh

    gerry 09/05/16 3:17 PM Reply


    • Yep, Fahey doing business with couple of 10/1+ jobbies in last few days for those. That was never in doubt from about 3f out I don’t think, albeit that camera angle always tricky!

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 3:31 PM Reply


  • An early alert,Dan Skelton Booked to ride Crosspark 6.05 Southwell for Caroline Bailey 9/1 available with Bet365

    gerry 09/05/16 4:00 PM Reply


    • He won’t do the weight! 🙂

      Chris 09/05/16 6:27 PM Reply


  • Bayan Kasirga you beauty get in!!!
    Wasn’t going to bother with but I saw an Eddie Stobart wagon with Sammy Jo Bells picture emblazoned all over it, I’m assuming that they sponsor her, and took it as a good omen.
    More than one way to pick a winner lol

    Karl 09/05/16 4:14 PM Reply


  • Good old Tom and Paddy to end day on a high,hope hes not taking paternity leave

    gerry 09/05/16 7:06 PM Reply


    • Nice to watch wasnt it – bar that one blunder – which could only see behind, never looked in much doubt – paddys arms were full there – just shows what a change of pace/track can do – was taken a bit off his feet at Perth I think, never get in a rhythm – stiffer track looks to have done the trick.

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 7:09 PM Reply


    • come on the systems!!! let’s all do the cradle-the-baby celebration for paddy

      Ali 09/05/16 7:09 PM Reply


  • almost had a baby myself there but semed to have woken him up,from there on was just a matter of when he pushed the button,no one like paddy to get them over the last,looks promising recruit but the opposition are fairly moderate

    gerry 09/05/16 7:14 PM Reply


  • Valseur du Granval was a Great result for me 3rd winner in a £4 yankee with bayan kasaringa 12/1 Ellaal 6/1 and Figurante let me down for near on £50,000 got bt a couple of lengths.Can’t complain the stats are just so good at the moment

    mozzer 09/05/16 7:44 PM Reply


    • Well it would have been drinks on you mozzer!! Still, those three must have meant a decent enough return for beer money! Yep, micros are doing well – like my tipping they are cyclical – a few of them in form now and the TTP Systems seem to be a decent addition so far!

      Josh Wright 09/05/16 7:49 PM Reply


  • So Exited i missed rebel cry 8.10 WON 11/4 I back all kennedys horses under 14/1

    mozzer 09/05/16 7:48 PM Reply


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