Members Report: 08/05/16 (COMPLETE)

NO BETS of any sort today.

There a no system bets of any kind and I won’t be looking at anything else. A day off. 

***

Yesterday…Thankfully wily Mick Easterby provided the blog/TTP main systems with a decent enough winner to ensure it wasn’t total carnage. I hope the TTP stats may have pointed users to a few more winners also. From the comments I think that was the case. 

Victoria Cup – unlike with 3m+ chasers I won’t be dragging myself over hot coals as much when selections dont win etc in these races – they are such a game of fine margins and are the ultimate punting puzzle – and sometimes they make you look silly. Over the course of the season I am confident I will pick a handful of 16/1+ winners in these races and we should do ok. The draw became irrelevant when all jockeys, bar one, decided to race up the middle. That isn’t something you can predict easily. 

The selections ran well enough -Outback Traveller loomed up and looked the winner to my eyes entering the final 1.5f or so (certainly based on jockey language) but when the button was pushed there was nothing  there. Excitement to disappointment in a matter of strides. Maybe a problem will come to light or he just has that in his locker. The Stoute horse ran well enough also and wasn’t far away come the death. I am unsure if he is a horse without a trip – maybe they should try him again over 8f – or needs even more of a cavalry charge at that trip -interesting what they do next with him. 

The winner…well at least with my stats/trends approach it can be clear why I may have been put off a horse- clearly trends/stats get broken and that was a prime example, him being top 3 in the weights/draw/pace question. But, if you just looked at the horse then of course a case could be made. Young, progressive, still in the ‘could be anything’ camp. To win that race, like that from that mark, suggests that he may well leave handicaps behind at some point very soon. The lesson from that race is to note down Godolphin and how these races appear to be targeted now.(maybe that has always been the case but I have never really thought of the Royal Blue mopping up massive Saturday handicaps with regularity) Appleby adds this win to that in the Lincoln – they clearly have well bred animals on their hands and unexposed/progressive ones at that. Appleby in particular is clearly one to note in these races moving forwards. 

I will re-watch the race again at some point for future reference and see what else caught the eye etc. We beat the market again and got runs for our money to an extent and I look forward to the next 20+ runner challenge. 

Enjoy your Sunday,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • Regs Appleby – you should read the comment I just put on your Victoria Cup post!

    Andy Silvers 08/05/16 8:26 AM Reply


    • Yep, what do those numbers refer to against your top 3 ‘One Trick Trainers’ – i am probably being think – some of your notes need key for my untrained eye!

      Josh Wright 08/05/16 8:35 AM Reply


      • That’s just Grand total, totals 16 15 & 14 – at some point I am going to separate the One Trick bit from a bigger spreadsheet on trainers & incorporate a monthly word doc which includes winners – placed – runners for the main offenders/protagonists so we’ll have a kind of master spreadsheet specifically for One Trick Trainer patterns (tis all your fault if you recall).

        But yeh, sorry about the abbreviations, I’ll have to put a word doc together for them which will probably turn into a book lol & I’ll need a mini-ice-age to complete ?

        Andy Silvers 09/05/16 12:40 AM Reply


  • Yep,yesterday was like some of the frozen pizzas you cook,fine on the outside,but still cold in the centre,day started good and picked up couple easterby winners at end of day,the rest was forgettable,thats flat racing,all change at end of race,if your horse jumps the last well in front usually win,only 4 months to go til sept lol

    gerry 08/05/16 8:47 AM Reply


  • I think the issue too with the Victoria Cup was that one horse shot out of the stalls, indeed I did wonder if he broke out of the stalls, at which point it was clear where the pace was and they all followed it. I was personally on Mutawathea and Fort Bastion supplied by the speculateaccumulate Saturday service I subscribe to, so had a small e/w return. The guy on there did point out interestingly in his notes that Godolphin will target these big handicaps more now that Appleby is established, he actually points too; to Crisford as being a “third Godolphin” trainer, I have to say that I found the selection of Mutawathea strange at the time, since it was practically unbacked, I am now wondering if he and I missed a trick with the winner, but you live and learn; and there are plenty of big Saturday handicaps to come and the Ebor meeting..

    There are though some strange things happening with “draw bias” – look at 5/6 at Thirsk where if you were drawn low you had no chance, last 2 Fixtures there, low numbers have cleaned up, it does pose the question, in trying to nullify historic draw bias are Courses actually going too far the other way???

    Ian 08/05/16 9:34 AM Reply


    • Didn’t they change the numbering system in the last couple of years so that what used to be high draws are now low?. Thirsk is still one of the most biased tracks in the country because the stands side is cambered higher than the far side so any rain or course watering pools over on the far side. The stands rail has always been a motorway but unfortunately everbody knows this now so you don’t get the prices that the shrewdies made a living off 15-20 years ago!

      Steve Veasey 08/05/16 10:31 AM Reply


      • Steve they did at a few tracks but not Thirsk which is why the sudden splurge of low drawn 5/6f winners is so baffling, the only change they have made is positioning the stalls a bit more centrally for some meetings so that it is less of a trek over to the far rail….will have to note stalls position as well as draw there, Nottingham is similar, stalls position seems to dictate proportionally the draw bias.

        Ian 08/05/16 12:18 PM Reply


  • Roll on November and back to some proper racing.these flat sprints are a waste of time,same horses keep beating each other.i usually just stick to 8-10flg races,and I have been at this game since my first bet in 1959.i love it when the muds flying in the winter that’s the racing I love.keep up the good work Josh you put a lot of work into your stats you deserve to succeed.BoB

    BoB 08/05/16 9:37 AM Reply


  • close to backing a 79 to 1 betfair winner yesterday, had £10 ew on earth drummer, in victoria cup finished 5th,got place paid but did not see race, comments were
    not clear run, hampered had to switch right, finished well, sounds unlucky.

    malcolm pendrey 08/05/16 9:43 AM Reply


  • Maybe something or nothing, but both the Lincoln winner and yesterdays Victory cup winner had a few things in common.

    Both trained by Appleby, both were 4Y0s, Both ran at Meydan, both were by Sharmedal.

    Maybe that’s a start of a system to look into.

    Steve 08/05/16 9:58 AM Reply


    • Steve I also noticed they were both by Sharmadel but took no notice,Sharmadel only ran 4 times and won all 4,i think M Johnston had him.I used to be clued up on all the breeding but have forgot most of it.Cheers BoB

      BoB 08/05/16 10:41 AM Reply


  • 4:15 LUDLOW
    Noche De Reyes

    3:05 LUDLOW
    Altesse De Guye
    3:25 PLUMPTON
    Bawden Rocks

    Pab 08/05/16 10:39 AM Reply


    • Yeah I am also on Bawden Rocks

      Nick Mazur 08/05/16 11:12 AM Reply


    • have skipped ADG in favour of Moss On The Mill – unexposed George/Brennan horse on at 9’s early for a bit of an each way poke, had the view ADG and Minella may now be in grip of the handicapper….lets see!

      Ian 08/05/16 12:20 PM Reply


      • Moss On The Mill is interesting for sure

        Pab 08/05/16 12:26 PM Reply


    • all lost

      Pab 08/05/16 3:21 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your shortlist Josh which is always a good starting point these. Helped me pick out Muthathea and Earth Drummer and the place money paid for most of my other personal bets. The latter would have gone really close I think if not for the interference and I think should be winning one of these big handicaps this season although I still not certain if he is best over 7f or 8f.

    Nick Mazur 08/05/16 11:11 AM Reply


  • An underwhelming performance from Bawden Rocks,Bridgewater has had terrible season

    gerry 08/05/16 2:39 PM Reply


  • Nice 14/1 winner for flat stats in leopardstown intisari

    gerry 08/05/16 3:50 PM Reply


  • Intasari wins at leopardstown.Irish ttp guide.24 on betfair.cheers Josh.

    Lee 08/05/16 4:02 PM Reply


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