Members Report 07/05/16 (COMPLETE)

All indications are that I should leave the summer chasers for the time being. However, there was plenty to take away from the first tipping foray into a sprint handicap. Barkston Ash looks to have run up to his best. Sent off at half the advised odds, at 4/1, he got the lead on the rail  and only got collared late on, losing by a neck or so in 3rd. He looked the winner all but for the last 25 yards or so but the younger legs just got there. Such are the fine margins of the sprinting game. I had fitness doubts/questions about the winner but having run ok on reappearance last year, and open to progress as a 4yo, money was going to be significant. He was weak this morning, but in fairness maybe not much money was around. In any case he was backed from 25s into 14s at the off and just got up late. I read the pace right and the track pace bias. So, a losing bet, but a good loser – as opposed to Double Silver, who I would rather not think about. Thankfully Richard Fahey ensured a profitable day of sorts for ‘the portfolio’ with a 10/1 winner for the TTP systems. 

Onto Saturday where I have one race of interest, the Victoria Cup, which I have had a good look at…

 

BIG RACE PREVIEW (tips) 

4.15 Ascot 

Outback Traveller – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general) 

Grand Inquisitor – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) 

 

Having had a good look at this race these are the two that stand out and their odds are just about ok for me – I would rarely want to take single odds about a horse in a 29 runner handicap. I was struggling to make a case for any at bigger prices. 

Let’s start with some trends/stats. Those that I used to guide me were:-

  • 9st-9 or more on back a negative, Top 3 in weights a negative (0/57,7 places), Bottom weight a neg (0/31,3p)
  • Aged 4-7
  • 28 or fewer career runs
  • 0-2 wins in C2
  • 1 or more places in handicaps
  • Race LTO had 8 or more runners
  • Draw 24 or higher a negative (0/36,3 p in race – also, analysis of draw when good to firm – in comments on trends post- shows that middle to low have dominated) 

I believe that leaves a shortlist of: the two selections / Mutawathea /Earth Drummer / Squats / Miracle of Medina / Predominance / Related / Ghalib. 

Outback Traveller – was a real eye-catcher last time out under Spencer – he was just stuck behind horses for so long with nowhere to go. If this was the target that may well have been deliberate but he ran like an inform there and he was hardly busting a gut to find room/ride a finish. Watch the video if you can. This one is lightly raced, open to plenty of progress and has won over course and distance. He has form on good to firm and firm and ran a cracker here 3 starts ago, before flopping at the track again next time. He has since joined Robert Cowell who has done well with his handicappers here – 4/17,5 places in last 730 days. He is also drawn on the right side I think with a couple of front runners around him – he can also race up with the pace which could be important as I am not sure this will be a cavalry charge and those held up may struggle to get into it. All in all he could prove to be better than this mark this year and has plenty in his favour. 10s is just about fair.

Grand Inquisitor – in a way  he looks like a typical SMS project and will surely improve at some point this season. He ran some very good races as a 3yo, in decent company. It may be that he wants further than this and may just not get there – and I was also concerned by the draw – there is some pace around him but if the jockey comes to the stand side that would hurt his chance. Hopefully the jockey does his homework and tracks those down the middle/low. The trainer couldn’t be in any better form and he ran well enough on his reappearance. He really could be anything and at some point will progress past this mark. He has form on good to firm also and everything looks set for a big run. Certainly he looks one to keep on the right side of. 

Predominance looks sure to go close here and is priced up accordingly. He is unexposed, won well LTO, ticks the trends boxes and won’t be far away. There really are not too many negatives, if any, for him – bar his price – and I have gone for two who are slightly bigger in the market. Saver material maybe. 

PACE-  Related in 1 can take the low numbers along and there are a few pace pushers that side. I think middle to low will be the place to be, both pace wise and on the draw stats. Majestic Moon may provide some pace on the stands side but there are a lot of hold up horses drawn high. 

I have notes on every other horse in here and why I don’t like them. I will just say so if something else wins! There are a lot of exposed ones in here, plenty that have proven they are not up to this level, dont like the track or are either proven not to stay or are trying the trip for the first time – I dont like that in races such as this. Plenty have fitness questions/unknowns also. Buckstay caught the eye but he is high in the weights here and will do well to defy that mark. Free Code is well touted but he is 0/2, 0p at Ascot,0/6,0p in C2, 0/6,0p OR91+(does have claim though) and 0/6,0 p 12+ runners. The trainer is also 0/53 here in last 5 years and he has a bad draw. I was happy to overlook him, albeit we all know what will happen now! 🙂 

That will be all for tips on Saturday. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

May Trainer (16/1<)

4.15: Free Code – UP

Jumps Handicappers

2.55 Hexham – Quick Decision – UP

Other

Saturday TJC: 2.15 Hayd – John Constable – 4th 12/1

R Varian Fillies/Mares (25/1<) : 3.50 Nott – Imtiyaaz UP/ Queens Pearl UP

***

TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

7.35 Thirsk: Tamayuz Magic (28/1<) WON 8/1 (13/2 after R4)

8.35 Thirsk: Anieres Boy (28/1<) 3rd 10/1

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing else. Mainly as I haven’t looked – I appear to have been out, clinging onto my youth, until about 4.30am and to be honest my head is a bit sore! I am also about to jump on a train down to London to meet up with some old housemates from my university days- always a good laugh. Anyway, good luck with all your bets today. Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • Loving the stats and blog josh. I’m off to haydock tomorrow, can anyone point me in the right direction? Thanks in advance.
    YNWA.

    Max 06/05/16 6:34 PM Reply


    • Use Google maps, they’ll get you there.
      🙂

      Andy 06/05/16 7:10 PM Reply


      • I was thinking more about tips but I like your answer anyway!

        Max 06/05/16 7:19 PM Reply


        • Regulation (trainer) & Roman Flight (jockey) 215 could prove silly prices

          Daryl Jacob & S Bowen jumps
          Nicholls, Hobbs & Pipe all got a good record 320
          I’m doing Easy Code first & maybe Don’t Touch 355

          Good Luck

          Andy Silvers 07/05/16 11:54 AM Reply


    • big casino 5.00 small field good ground good chance best of luck with what ever you back

      antony 06/05/16 8:25 PM Reply


    • i am gonna look at 2:15 Haydock
      ALL YOURS 12/1
      and
      1:40 HAYDOCK
      maybe Bathos depends on price
      that after fist look

      Pab 06/05/16 9:32 PM Reply


  • What about the Williams & Moloney combo in the 2.15 John Constable? What about Whataknight for Harry Fry in the 3.20? Dr Harper in the 4.30.

    Martin Colwell 06/05/16 8:28 PM Reply


  • I agree with Dr Harper in the 4:30. 3/1 is an absolute gift!

    Phil C 06/05/16 8:56 PM Reply


  • Thanks martin/antony . I’m learning all the time and enjoying most of it!

    Max 06/05/16 9:07 PM Reply


    • tips you better learn to find yourself
      no so diffcoult i am in horse racing just 5 month,it is ok untill it make me fun
      o maybe it is a way,find a way to have a fun with horse racing beting

      Pab 06/05/16 9:37 PM Reply


  • but good money or loses may bring THIRSK 735 20/1 We´ll Shake Hands
    and
    WEXFORD 2:05 14/1 ARYA TARA
    beautyfull name of Buddhist deity

    Pab 06/05/16 9:47 PM Reply


  • cant resist an e/w tickle on Squats. Fits the trends (except Jockey booking a slight concerning, suggesting second string) and final run of last season suggests the extra furlong may even benefit

    Ali 06/05/16 11:18 PM Reply


    • I like valley of fire in squats race possibly third string and forever popular in 2.30

      antony 07/05/16 5:59 AM Reply


      • yep, third string even! i know nothing about the flat!

        Ali 07/05/16 7:51 AM Reply


  • Strange that Spencer is not riding Outback Traveller?

    Richard Sutton 07/05/16 5:36 AM Reply


    • Martin Harley rides as Jamie Spencer is claimed to ride for Mrs Fitri Hay on Buckstay so read nothing into the switch of jockeys.BoB

      BoB 07/05/16 8:40 AM Reply


      • Thank you

        Richard Sutton 07/05/16 9:56 AM Reply


  • Pab,have you been visiting Jabba the Hutt recently(but good money or losses may bring) love that,im having a saver in the 4.15 Mister Universe at 28/1.wouldn’t touch a short priced of johnstons with a bargepool but these are the types of races he wins,big prices

    gerry 07/05/16 6:06 AM Reply


    • Yes i have MU and Buckstay
      take a look 7-05 THIRSK CROMBAY 12/1
      and i am in 2:15 Haydock
      ALL YOURS 12/1
      and 3:20 HAYDOCK
      Taj Badalandabad 10/1
      i will make some ew double

      Pab 07/05/16 11:17 AM Reply


      • at least healthy ew on Buckstay
        Thanks Jabba

        Pab 07/05/16 4:42 PM Reply


      • Thanks Jabba CROMBAY won at 7/1 morning price

        Pab 07/05/16 7:50 PM Reply


    • MU 50/1 lol

      Pab 07/05/16 12:28 PM Reply


    • Jabba the Hutt it is place of my orgin like roots place

      Pab 07/05/16 12:33 PM Reply


  • My best bets for to-day 14.30 Ascot. Forever Popular 8.1 15.25 Ling Architect 3.1 and 16.30 Hyd. Dr Harper 11/4.. Good punting everyone, got my bets on early today, going for a few beers this afternoon and watch the football. Hot again here In thailand 38* not complaining though.
    Pattaya Wolf.

    Roy Bedford 07/05/16 6:29 AM Reply


  • Mullionheir at 20/1 in VC. Did nothing but progress at 3 and was ultra consistent finishing with a first win over this distance after which his trainer said that the win over the distance opens up new opportunities for him, so still possibly unexposed over 7f. Ground no problem and the trainer/jock combo are 17% and profitable after nearly 200 runners. If he returns in the same form he’s an ew bet at 20’s with 5 places.

    Tony 07/05/16 6:36 AM Reply


  • I always enjoy studying the 7 and 8 furlong handicaps at Thirsk, but tonight it is a 5f and 6f fest’. A bookie banquet of four sprint handicaps totalling 60 runners just in those races. Must be licking their lips.

    Richard Sutton 07/05/16 10:31 AM Reply


  • are you betting on 2:55 HEXHAM Handicap Chase 1m7f133y

    Pab 07/05/16 11:34 AM Reply


  • Hi guys not a tip but horse I have a share in runs in the second at lingfield .. They are struggling to find him a race to win but won’t mind the track and jockey instructions are to hold him up to get the trip .. Horse is Lexington times good luck if you have a punt.
    Cheers
    Kev

    Kevin 07/05/16 11:40 AM Reply


    • Good luck Kevin

      Richard Sutton 07/05/16 1:19 PM Reply


      • Cheers Richard not sure where go now .. Jockey and horse missed start and then rode like a lunatic to make up ground .. Hey ho never mind always another day and all safe and sound and apologies if anyone followed

        Kevin 07/05/16 2:50 PM Reply


        • Propably test run before he goes flat racing

          Pab 07/05/16 4:40 PM Reply


  • i took O marea SO BELOVED
    2:45 HAYDOCK 6/1 good price

    Pab 07/05/16 12:04 PM Reply


    • won nice

      Pab 07/05/16 1:52 PM Reply


      • Well done Sir!!! 6’s as well!!

        Chris Albin 07/05/16 4:29 PM Reply


  • I like Flash City in the 2.40 Nott although I wish it had a higher draw. At best on fast ground which it does not get very often, and ran well on soft ground at Thirsk recently, finishing second. In a class 5 which is his winning level today, generally a 7/2 shot.

    Richard Sutton 07/05/16 12:38 PM Reply


  • 2.15 – Wait for me, All Set to go & Swansea Mile
    SP – 18 / 19 winners – the top 9 in the betting
    Age – 19 / 19 – aged 4yo to 7yo.
    Age – 6YO & 7YO – won 6 / 7
    OR – <141
    Weight – The last 13 winners all < 11st 6lbs

    3.20 – General Mahler 16/1 EW
    Is in good form and was traveling well before falling LTO.
    Btm weight with a decent claimer on board who's been riding well of late with 5 x 2nds and a winner from his last 7 rides in the last two weeks

    Eamon Roberts 07/05/16 1:01 PM Reply


  • King Bolette a winner for the stats 7/1 last night

    gerry 07/05/16 1:49 PM Reply


    • & cdg & One Trick Trainer Top5

      Andy Silvers 08/05/16 3:21 AM Reply


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