Members Report: 04/05/16 (COMPLETE)

I have pulled together some notes for Chester’s May Meeting. There are a few ‘eye-poppers’ in there – well, my eyes were popping anyway. Some interesting Draw info, and not what I expected to see. 

These are the kind of ‘meeting notes’ I would now normally reserve for Donations Club members but thought I would share these ones with you all, this time… 

ALL THINGS CHESTER: NOTES HERE>>>

***

I have also started to pull together some Trainer Track Profiles for the Summer Jumps, to be followed by the All-Weather also. Below is a link to the profile for Newton Abbot. I hope to have the rest complete by the end of next week. I have yet to decide what I will do with them. If I charge, DC members will get the pack for free,  but I may end up just giving the lot away as you all deserve a quality freebie every now and then 🙂 The jumps are a bit different from the flat and if you have any suggestions for ‘stats areas’ I may have missed/would be useful do leave a comment. 

TRAINER TRACK PROFILES SUMMER JUMPS: NEWTON ABBOT

***

Some thoughts…

I am sounding the ‘Horse Racing is a bloody Hard Sport To Win Money On‘ klaxon and if you think, for one moment, it is easy, then my friend you are in the wrong place.

There are many a bastard, for want of a more polite phrase, who will take your money (and a lot of it), promise you a big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and never deliver – because there is no rainbow – it will just keep raining, raining and raining some more – the sun will never shine – and there will be no rainbow. Trust me, I have been there. It took me 5 years to get out of the two overdrafts that I maxed in my first year at University having followed one of ‘those tipsters’. And that isn’t bullshit – it is true. (-£2650 to be precise) And if you don’t think that every loser I tip doesn’t hurt then you really haven’t come to know very well at all. (some services do actually promise pots of gold, and do deliver!) 

Anyway. Dave. I hope you are reading. And I am not picking on you, but in fairness I fear a few may have read what you wrote and agreed. And that may be fair enough. My fault for not being even more explicit. 

  1. If you have not read the ‘members club’ tab in the top right hand corner, please do. That kind of explains the approach. The one thing this blog has is a structure. The daily posts consist of 4 parts – well 5 if you include my ramblings at the start. There are Tips/ Micro Systems / Stats|Angles of Interest and the new TTP Main System Bets/ – if, at any point, you are not clear about how you should engage with any of those (after having read the tab above) please do say. Leave a comment, drop me an email. I really can’t stress enough that my purpose in this online world of ours is to increase your enjoyment of this great sport of ours. 
  2. It is hard to make a profit at this game, long term. But, we are doing ok, and importantly, we are on a journey. I will still be here talking nonsense in 10 years time, and the 10 years after that. I have hit a rut on the tipping front, but it WILL get worse at some point. There will be worse losing runs. I can see why, if you started following the tips in March or something you would think I don’t have a clue. But all I ask is that you study the historical results of my tips and have some confidence. This jumps season, up until the end of Feb, we made around 160 points – or £3200 to £20 bets. March/April were on about +10 points combined, and now -5.5 points into May. I am not happy with my performance in the last few weeks – but it happens. I would like my win SR to be higher. I have made errors, I will learn from them, and we move on. In the grand scheme of things, we are not doing too badly. My own target in my mind was for the tips to make 100 points per calendar year. I would bite your hand off every year to make what we did between October and now. 
  3. I can be an overly confident young man – but when I say I am the most transparent and honest person you will meet in the online racing world, or maybe in life, I believe that to be true. I pride myself on that – along with ‘customer’ service it is 100% in my control, unlike the horses! I will never bull shit you and will always be trying my best to make your experience the most enjoyable it can be.  You would not believe how self critical I am of myself and how much I want to improve. I don’t hide from poor performance, and I welcome polite criticism. 
  4. BUT, I will have losing runs. If you follow the Tips you should have a 50-80 point bank I should think, maybe 100 points. The same again for the systems. You should be prepared, mentally and financially, to lose every penny. If you are not, then you are betting too much, for now.  I will have losing runs of 25-40 at some point on the tips ( I think 18 has been the worst to date since October,but am updating 2016 results tomorrow). You have to be prepared for that, if you want to follow my tips. Now, my job is to work harder – for myself and for you- to analyse what I am doing wrong, to correct it and to ensure I am asking the right questions and doing everything in my power.

We are on a journey folks. I hope many of you will be with me for many years to come. It will be enjoyable, it will be profitable but it wont be easy, it will have its ups and downs. That is betting. That is horse racing. I lost one of you today. I don’t like that. This is a place where every punter should feel at home. If I haven’t explained something please say so, ask the question. If you are not happy with something, please say so, ask the questions. To coin an awful phrase, ‘we are all in this together’ 🙂 

I am off to bed. (apologies if you don’t approve of the odd swearword) 

***

I should say something about Rebecca’s Choice  – as there is plenty to take away from that victory. A sound big price judge on twitter, Gary Priestley (brother of Gavin, nag-nag-nag) tipped him, and looking at it with ‘different eyes’ after he had won, I can see why. This is all in the context of him being 25/1. His last win was in 2014. Now, he had the class, ground was fine and he was a proven stayer. His last win was off OR128. His run before this was off OR 122. On Tuesday he raced off OR114. He’d had only 6 chase runs since his last win, and dropped 14lb. He had never been put into a race in recent months – and his mark had come down. (in part it would have fallen that steeply because of his age I imagine, fair enough) Also, the jockey was in the form of his life and the trainer had been banging in the winners. Suddenly, when you view it like that, 25s seems a reasonable bet. I can see why some would have had a nibble. There are lessons a plenty for me to take away from that one. Forefront of my mind should have been a deeper consideration of his plummet down the weights, allied to the fact that he likes good ground and stays every yard of this trip. That thought process did not cross my mind. I paid too much attention to his recent form. (context of his price is important)

And now for a positive midset. The winners will return, and they are not far away!…

***

TIPS

3.35 Newton Abbot

Art Mauresque – 1 point win – 4/1 (BetFr/BV/Coral) WON 3.6/1 (after R4)

 

My first reaction on seeing 4/1 about this horses chance, in this race, was to get on – I have backed this one a few times in recent months – I had an ‘interest’ bet in October when he won with ease in a C2 Novice at Cheltenham and them tipped him NTO for my Daily Punt column where he ran well all things considered in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. This is no PP Gold Cup. I don’t think he likes massive fields and all indications are that he must have good/good to firm going. That ground/field size saw him return to form the last day, where I may have had a nibble again – he looked like the winner approaching the last but was out-jumped and he may have bumped into a decent one there – it was a G2 Handicap Chase with a big gap back to the rest. Interestingly Nick Schofield takes the ride – and given STD is here – it is clear he is being reunited with the horse because he gets on with him and has won on him. He may get the lead here – it depends on what Sew On Target does – but he has never stayed this trip and they may hold him up a bit – either way there won’t be any complaints on that front – he should be in the right place and I would like to think he would scoot away around here jumping the last couple, on this ground. This looks like the easiest race he has lined up in since his Novice win and I would hope he shows his full colours in this company. I am not sure where they go if he doesn’t! Nicholls is in very good form and I can see no excuse. At 4s I was happy to have a dart, given he could out-class these. His actual weight is a question – I expect he will be fine carrying it but until they try you never really know. The fact he carried 10-4 the last day, and has 11-12 here indicates how much stronger that last race was, in terms of the ratings of the oppo. 

Of the rest – well they are a fairly exposed bunch and many are not getting any younger. Portway Flyer is the main danger as he is progressive and won well LTO. The 46 day break is a slight concern and the selection will have track position on him. He is progressive and if AM fluffs what looks to be a decent opportunity, he won’t be far away. Both Workbench and Fox Appeal are better going the other way (0/9,2 p – and 0/6,2 p in chases LH respectively) and in any case both come here with some questions to answer now. There isn’t anything in here either that  you would say is especially well-in (Rebecca’s Choice was the smack in the face I needed to put a bit more emphasis on handicap mark!) Astracad is on his last winning mark but is a bit out of sorts and getting on – Fox Appeal is 7lb below his last winning mark – so I suppose he is due to go in at some point- but he continues to threaten and then disappoint – he couldn’t take advantage of it the last day and does like to try and take a fence with him every now and then. The last run was more positive mind.  

Good Luck

***

I won’t tip anything at Chester – there are enough stats for me to get stuck into. The fav does look strong in the Chester Cup, having had a quick look- well drawn, still progressive, stays, front runs/races handily – there is plenty to like- but he is 7/2. Given McCain’s liking for the race and record here, his William of Orange would be of some EW interest maybe – but from that draw he will need plenty of luck and in reality may be only playing for place money – and I never like betting on a horse expecting a place at best – market support would make him of more interest as I suspect this has been the plan since he came to the yard. They are my initial thoughts, to be taken with a large pinch of salt – I dare say one of Fahey’s may qualify on an angle below.

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

4.35 Kelso – Weapon Of Choice (12/1<) UP

4.45 NA – Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) UP

7.00 Weth – Coozan George (12/1<) UP

7.30 Weth – Dalby Spook (12/1<) NR

8.30 Weth – Boruma (12/1<) UP

***

TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS

Chester (12/1<) 

3.10 – Angel Gabrial DNQ/ Duke of Clarence DNQ / Gabrial The Hero 4th 12/1 / Gabrials King DNQ

3.45 – Lexis Her0- DNQ

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

4.10 NA – Milestone – any odds – goes for that Williams/Moloney micro researched a few weeks back. I post the Saturday qualifiers above but this is the extended version – they pop up with the odd monster every now and then. Have yet to look at the horse. From memory and the stats in the NA report above, these two do well here also. 

CHESTER: I have used my notes to highlight any runners of interest . I HAVE NOT even looked at the horses concerned, very much pointers based on the stats I researched. Remember, when it comes to handicaps, all winners here in the last 5 years have been 12/1 or shorter. 

2.10 – Fiery Character – Trainer record in non-major non handicaps

2.40 – Somehow / Pursuitofthestars / Desertoflife – trainers who have had winners in listed/Gr3 races here,last 5 festivals

3.10 – All of Fahey’s 12/1 or shorter. 

DRAW Micro Angle… Totalize / Min Alemerat  /Gabrial The Hero (stats based on those 12/1< – but, you never know!) 

(number 13 has been withdrawn – those stats very much based on the stall number- William of Orange is in draw 14) 

I missed out John Reel, who goes for a trainer who is 3/9 in handicaps here. Knew I would miss something! Probably not the only one. 

3.45 – Stalls 8+9 stand out on the stats: Blithe Spirit / Lexi’s Hero (12/1< don’t forget) – Alston a positive record at meeting for the former – 2/7, 4 places. 

FAHEY MEETING MICRO – Growl (12/1<) 

4.20 – Ballista – Trainer record in non-major, non handicaps 

Rene Mathis – as above. 

4.55 – Monacco Rose – Fahey in maidens here

Exoteric – Hills has won with a maiden here. 

5.25 – Soldier in Action / Zzoro / Red Verdon (trainers who have all had handicap winners at meeting – could throw in Fahey’s from the general stats but he is 0/14,5 p in 3yo only handicaps – one will go in at some point no doubt) 

***

That is all for today. Post complete. 09.40

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

57 Comments

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  • draw on sprints at chest is kiling

    Pab 03/05/16 2:13 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,like the jumps stats for Newton Abbott,was thinking maybe could put trainer/jockey combos after top trainers,then its easy to see if you have a strong qualifier,its only my personal way of approaching things though, to look at trainer and then booked jockey.Malcolm Jefferson has 2 nhf runners at kelso.Mount Mews whom you already know the form there as he beat Bally Gilbert lto 7/2 best price and tiger mountain 6.05,14/1 is a big price for a jefferson horse,should be lots of fun from the jumps stats

    gerry 03/05/16 6:47 PM Reply


    • Hi Gerry, thanks for feedback, I will have a look but don’t like to confuse the ‘micro angles’ with general stats but can see where you are coming from. Yep Mount Mews was very impressive LTO – he showed some turn of foot to breeze past a well regarded individual who was able to dictate from the front. He could make 7/2 look massive – now 11/4 generally so you have ‘the value’. Good Luck today.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:07 AM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for the work and input, deserves to find a few winners.

    Richard Sutton 03/05/16 7:10 PM Reply


    • Cheers Richard – we shall see – it would be nice to nab a decent priced high drawn winner this week, over 10f+. Here’s hoping! And if Fahey has a good three days, in all likelihood we will also!

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:29 AM Reply


  • although Diane Sayer has hit a bit of form,had small bet on endeavour at sedgefield where she has good course record in handicap hurdles,her daughter who rides weapon of choice is 0-16 at kelso,dianes record there not great either,same can be said for wetherby as regards trainer and jockey course form,so extreme caution needed

    gerry 03/05/16 8:49 PM Reply


  • Ben Aitken on A. Balding at Chester.
    Mini Angle.
    Chester…Class 2 & below. SP 5/1 or less. 5/7 …71% S/R.
    Win and Place….7/7……100% S/R.

    I don’t suppose the pickings are heavy, but that’s what he’s sent.

    Tony 03/05/16 9:22 PM Reply


  • My rough guide of the 3:45 @ Chester where the LTO is a Hcap, Age 3-7, Course runs 2-4 gives me Mukaynis, Kimbrella and Seve. All three have decent draws too which is not too shabby. If I had to pick one I would pick two as the trainers of Mukaynis and Seve appear to do the better of the three at this meeting/distance. Given that my way in isn’t the most rock solid coupled with the dodgy trainer theory I may be better off keeping my opinion to myself!

    Chris Albin 03/05/16 9:31 PM Reply


  • to look 4:20 CHESTER Dutch Masterpiece Gary Moore 5f16y
    draw position 2

    Pab 03/05/16 10:03 PM Reply


    • PFTP one to watch – MALJAA, also running although short odds.
      (PFTP=picks from the paddock)

      The Gambler 04/05/16 6:33 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I had 2 winners 3 seconds and a third from the TTP today, 2 of the seconds beaten by a head or a neck! all at decent odds too, I was wondering if you back everything to win or sometimes e/w and if so when? thanks

    Tuckers Luck 03/05/16 10:36 PM Reply


    • Hi TL, Sounds like a good day to me – yep a couple of those were agonising and would have made it a very good day – thankfully Appleby delivered at Catterick to ensure not too much damage was done on the systems/angles front.

      Staking – in general I back everything to win only, usually to 1 point win bets – I bet £20 per point and will rarely if ever have less than £10 on something as seems a bit pointless – I should have to like something enough to have at least 1/2 a point on. EW betting – I will when the odds are decent and the EW return can be decent, especially when 4/5 places up for grabs – 16/1+ say – or if I convince myself that a 12/1 shot will place at worst. In the big sprint handicaps – where it is a game of very fine margins, you can win decent placed money – but I always have at least 1 point on the win side – I learnt that lesson from Nov 2014-Sept ’15 – I had a handful of 16/1+ winners with only 1/2 on the win side, 1/2 EW bets – and would have won a lot more if I had 1 point on win side, as a minimum.

      I don’t think I have ever backed a system bet on here EW. Although I probably should with some of Pam Sly’s bigger priced ones – she has had two 20/1+ placers I think for micros in recent weeks that I backed win only. Of course, 1/2 EW + 1/2 win (so 1.5 points total) is always an option, and one I explore sometimes.

      But, it is all preference. I have built up a sufficient bank whereby I don’t mind the longer losing runs, and I can handle them. Some punters want a return more often, which is fair enough – even if it is getting stake money back. Each to their own and very much about suiting your style/bank/psychology.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:28 AM Reply


  • In truth theres probably a bit of a dave attitude in a lot of people,unrealistic expectations,blaming external influences and not looking at ones self,i was a bit like that myself but i have realised that betting brings mostly disappointing days,some average,days,a few good days and occasionaly brilliant ones,its coping with the darker times that separates the successfull from the failures,sometimes i follow your advice,sometimes i don’t,sometimes im right sometimes im wrong but its my decision to bet thats right or wrong,there is a phrase that gambling turns lions into lambs,The sun also rises tomorrow

    gerry 03/05/16 11:29 PM Reply


    • Well said Jerry I agree with you 100%

      William 04/05/16 10:37 AM Reply


  • Let’s face it – anyone who’s been punting for some time has been through a “Dave” phase. Whilst we understand it, there is no point dwelling on it. Dave will, hopefully, get over it & in the meantime Josh carry on the good work. Punting is a long term game & it’s the long term record that counts.

    Phil C 04/05/16 5:06 AM Reply


    • Cheers – yep we have all been there, and that phase can creep up on us all every now and then. Yea you have to put a line through it, learn from the previous day/tip, and move on. Hopefully Dave returns at some point! All about the long term.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:44 AM Reply


  • Last months profit for me 1-29th of April 0 pts. Profit for the whole month 100 pts .I had 29 days with more 2nds than I could shake a stick at then in 1 day it all comes together keeping faith is the hardest part

    Jamie 04/05/16 5:25 AM Reply


    • That sounds like a bloody good days punting – a 100 point day – top work, just shows if you believe in your approach/record etc, it will come good at some point. Agree, maintaining confidence and trying to ensure you keep the same approach/improve on it.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:32 AM Reply


  • Always keen to have a small punt in the Chester Cup and deep in the back of my brain always lurk 2 Trainers as “go to” in this race with good records, Donald McCain and Ian Williams, have therefore had a close look at William Of Orange and Le Maitre Chat, both have good form cv and both have decent jockey bookings in my opinion, so in order of preference I will have a bit of shrapnel on Le Maitre Chat and William of Orange at 14 + 25’s respectively.

    Ian 04/05/16 6:39 AM Reply


  • It’s easy for me to say, Josh, but don’t stress it – it’s part of the job, unfortunately (Carl Nicholson’s Racing Diary has made me 40 points this year, and he had one the other day). Here’s to the next ten…
    Paul

    Paul 04/05/16 7:53 AM Reply


    • Yep very true. I am not at the ‘in a rut stressed stage’ yet! but it is the nature of the game – and mr CN has influenced me to some degree. Distinctly remember reading one of his books/only book whereby he described how he started with the biggest priced horse and worked his way up, seeing if he could make a case etc – or something like that – he is a fine value judge but again, very much about the long term. No doubt he has peaks and troughs, but over-time there should be confidence.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:39 AM Reply


  • Good morning everyone.This my first time on the page. Just to let you all know that I have been backing horses for 45 years and I am still working full time. That tells you how good I am at finding winners!!. Thanks for all the interesting comments. I will try to put them to good use. Cheers. Charlie.

    Charles 04/05/16 8:30 AM Reply


    • Morning Charles, and welcome. Yep I think betting professionally is a very hard thing to achieve – more so getting the bets on than anything else I suspect – but, collectively, the aim is to win some nice ‘hobby’ money over the course of every year, to spend on some ‘luxuries’ every now and then! Happy Punting, Josh

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:22 AM Reply


      • punting pro is very difficult. I am semi pro and think that is better as you can work some of the time and still have a steady income coming in. Evening study is important but if you want to enjoy betting then carry on working and punt as you go. Hope the iffy run ends soon Josh.

        Martin Colwell 04/05/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • I rarely post on this site because I feel that I don’t know enough to make valid contributions but Dave-gate really has wound me up. Probably like most people on here I have “invested” with numerous tipping sites, pay-as-you-bet sites, free-tips-so-you-get-bombarded-with-rubbish sites, place-bets-for-the-tipster sites (the worst) and pretty much sampled every type of dodgy practice out there and have the overdraft to prove it. You go in with your eyes open and take your chances and every day is a learning day. That’s fine and it is really annoying when the inevitable losing run occurs and more often than not you do end up leaving the site (rightly or wrongly).

    This site is different for a number of reasons – the fact it is still free if you so choose, the work that clearly goes into the research, the reasoning behind the tips and the unassuming style of accepting that there will be more losers than winners (the nature of the game) ranks it up with the better-regarded sites (Bisogno, Priestley, Aitken etc). The addition of the profiles is a great tool for those who want to do more of their own selections.

    Dave is totally entitled to his opinion and I’m sure Josh can take it but don’t criticise the structure!! It is Daily Tip with reasons, Micro-angles, Notes and any other possible horses of interest along with the odd special click-through like today. It doesn’t get much more structured than that. Have a go at the tips by all means (if you feel the need) but not the structure.

    Anyway, I’m going back under my rock. Keep at it Josh and thanks to all of the other contributors on here who stick their heads above the parapet at the risk of being shot down by the Dave’s of this World. We’re all adults and we should all be able to make our own decisions rather than blame those who offer us something for nothing.

    Ben Watson 04/05/16 8:55 AM Reply


    • Thanks Ben, much appreciated. Dave and everyone else is certainly welcome to their opinion, provided it is expressed in a polite manner, which his was – and no-one should be shot down for sharing an opinion – but the opinion is there to be critiqued! Obviously I agree about the structure point – I thought that was the one thing I had got right and that was clear!! I am pleased it is clear to you. I make mistakes, and some of them should be criticised, no problem with that at all – it should be welcomed as it makes me want to work harder and improve.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:16 AM Reply


    • Hear Hear, well said.

      Edward 04/05/16 9:16 AM Reply


      • Whilst I do not want to lose ever, I always take criticism on board as I try to absorb it and make sense of it and learn from it if I need to. I am still learning as we all are.

        Martin Colwell 04/05/16 9:52 AM Reply


    • Aaron 04/05/16 10:43 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh
    Just want to back up some of the comments.
    Been following you since December and done very well.
    I’m afraid to admit but as an over 50 been backing horses and following racing since I was 6
    Backed a horse called Betrayal to win at my irate ever visit to Ripon,it won and been hooked ever since.
    Searched for the elusive rainbow ever since be it owning horses trying to fathom the VDW method or chucking money at so called tipsters.
    What I get from you is honesty commitment and in depth thought.
    We all know what’s on the outside of the tin when we read your blog. Racing is about opinions you don’t need to put your cash dos if you can do better get on with it, but don’t known those having a go.
    Everything in life is cyclical just keep doing what your doing Josh and I for one will keep reading following & supporting .

    David 04/05/16 9:14 AM Reply


    • Morning Dave, cheers. Ah I am glad you jumped on board just before the glut! That period will repeat again at some point – which should be viewed as exciting, and will hopefully give faith to those that may have started following post Feb. Here is to the next winning cycle!

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:42 AM Reply


  • hugh taylor of attheraces advised 1point ew on steve rogers for chester cup @ 20 to 1 a week or so ago, before had actually made cut for race! needed few to dop out.I did not back it then, only got 4 to 1 on it now. I am wary of ante-post bets after having 20 to 1 on a grand national 5 to 1 favourite years ago, that got leg injury on final gallop before the race. it put me off ante post. has anyone got 20 to 1 on it, hope so!

    malcolm pendrey 04/05/16 9:41 AM Reply


    • Blimey, well he is some judge and that is the risk you take. 20/1 massive – was also punting on not knowing the draw I assume – I suspect he may well be collecting. But, it is a funny old race.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 9:43 AM Reply


      • Too short now, would swerve Steve now in such a race. I like Gabrial the Hero at 20/1,which fits the stats, and have had a go at the price.

        Martin Colwell 04/05/16 9:54 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    I am from chester and watched many chester cups, great race. backed my fair share of winners, but one bet in it was very strange. they have to pass the winning post 3 times, as track is just over mile round. coming towards post about furlong from post on 2nd circuit, still having to go round again, the jockey om my bet started whipping the horse going past about ten of them and was in front at winning post, with circuit to go. I said to my friend who was watching it with me ” he has rode a finish there, with a circuit left!” the jockey admitted it in the paper the day after! bit un-proffesionnal, not knowing how many times to pass the post!

    malcolm pendrey 04/05/16 10:02 AM Reply


    • I remember Eddie Ahern doing that but can’t remember which track it was. The crowd were ready for a lynching!

      Lynn 04/05/16 11:24 AM Reply


      • Ah, given what transpired with that jockey I doubt that was an accident!! 🙂 (believe I am correct in thinking he was found to be corrupt)

        Josh Wright 04/05/16 11:29 AM Reply


  • funny you mentioned gabrial the hero, martin, I have had £100 win on it, also backed other 2 gabrials,as savers, hate to back the wrong gabrial!

    malcolm pendrey 04/05/16 10:04 AM Reply


    • I am on each way, 20/1 looked juicy enough. Take the point re the others, but will gamble on just one.

      Martin Colwell 04/05/16 11:45 AM Reply


  • Hugh Taylor is a decent bloke and very knowledgeable. However, the claim that the ATR site makes about his profit each year is ridiculous as the prices are just not accessible. The second his selections go up the prices go through the floor and hardly anyone would have got 20/1 on SR.

    Richard Sutton 04/05/16 10:05 AM Reply


    • Thats very true I have noticed how bet365 slash his selection prices within a minute he put his selections up. Most times I Dnt bother placing bets cos the value already gone

      daniel 04/05/16 10:30 AM Reply


    • You can do it, Richard. You have to watch his twitter account to be told that the tip will be online in the next 5 minutes, have all your BOG accounts logged in, and refresh the page constantly. I did it for a while, profitably. I quickly realised the downside when I was restricted immediately after backing one that won at less than half the advised odds. I only occasionally check in now to see what he’s backed – it can provide value elsewhere – because it’s not worth the restrictions. But it’s not his fault he moves markets (well, I guess it is) and the ROI figures are accurate.
      Paul

      Paul 04/05/16 10:36 AM Reply


  • From Trainer Track Profiles for Chester, Evans/ John Reel qualifies for the 15.10. (Although re your meeting stats, it is likely to start longer than 12/1 bar a withdrawal or two.)

    Looks a competitive race…. I wonder if the 12/1 stat will be broken!

    Geoff 04/05/16 10:10 AM Reply


    • Yep, i wouldn’t necessarily let that price stat put you off – all stats are there to be broken and there will be a handicap winner at bigger than 12/1 at this meeting at some point!It has just been a very good guide to date – and he is in the ‘boundary’ range.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 10:29 AM Reply


  • hi richard, regarding hugh taylor, I first started backing his selections on 5 november 2014, 18 months ago. to 18 april, I have won + 220 level to 1 point wins.
    you need to login to his twitter account, keep you eye on it, he then lets you know that his pick will be on ATR site within 5 minutes, I then keep refeshing ATR site until comes on. you are right, if dont get bet on within about 20 seconds , price has gone to pot! I nearly always got price with BET365, but no longer, alas, as they have severely restricted me! cannot get £5 win on anything with them now. the only one got left is bet victor, but even as quick as I am, never , or rarely get price, they are too quick.

    malcolm pendrey 04/05/16 10:33 AM Reply


  • As regards Dave, I learned a long time ago….that the world is full of ‘expectant moaners’.. We had an expression in the army when things went tit’s up…”You shouldn’t have joined if you can’t take a laugh”…I think that covers Dave,
    Josh your site is the most honest and open I’ve come across. Keep the faith brother and tell the Dave’s of this world to **** off.
    Rant finished. Sorry!

    Tony 04/05/16 10:41 AM Reply


  • I have 2:40 CHESTER
    Mirsaalah
    Pursuitofthestars

    3:45 CHESTER

    Mukaynis
    AVON BREEZE
    4:10 NEWTON ABBOT
    Humbel Ben
    i think about 7:00 WETHERBY
    Drumlister

    Pab 04/05/16 11:13 AM Reply


  • Divine Port..8.30 Wetherby is a system horse I have from bigger prices. 21%,,,,,,16s at the moment, but drifting??
    Tramore 4.25. Ballyfinboy off a seperate system.

    Tony 04/05/16 12:02 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh. Who’s gonna tell Dave?
    Paul

    Paul 04/05/16 2:41 PM Reply


    • Rodney I think!

      Richard Sutton 04/05/16 2:42 PM Reply


  • Phew! Well done Josh, Bit guessy but genuine there…

    Richard Sutton 04/05/16 2:42 PM Reply


    • Yea, two smart/nice horses there I think going the right way- he has jumped much better than that around Cheltenham! – his talent has won him that.
      Went through results and before that win I was equaling my longest losing run of 16- so, good just to get a win!

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 2:48 PM Reply


  • Tip 8.15 chelmsford….. Nearly Caught .

    Mike Dennis 04/05/16 3:10 PM Reply


  • P Nicholls has one more horse today and few tomorrow,i have got a message that his horses are worth of attencion now
    Congratulation Josh

    Pab 04/05/16 3:38 PM Reply


  • That Mount Mews is a rather good horse as you noted josh,hope you had a few on

    gerry 04/05/16 4:42 PM Reply


    • Yep – I rarely ‘unload’ at 11/4 or in a bumper – but having watched the run LTO again, fact Pauling really rates his 2nd (who used to work upsides the Champion Bumper 2nd of Mullins, before they were purchased) , and looking at oppo – I decided to have a go. Also,the claim was interesting – logically suggested he was there to run his race again, given penalty. He showed that impressive turn of foot again. Think they have a live one there, impressive. A bit ‘muggy’ maybe, but what the heck!
      Cheers for mentioning him, I would have missed him otherwise.

      Josh Wright 04/05/16 4:48 PM Reply


  • He is one to keep an eye out for next season.I used to be very wary of Jamie Hamilton,but has turned into a fine rider this season,an able deputy for hughes and in th right hands with jefferson,good to hear you had not passd it by

    gerry 04/05/16 4:59 PM Reply


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