Members Report: 29/04/16 (COMPLETE)

A bargain at £2.97…

If you read Thursday’s email you will be aware that the guys over at ‘Picks From The Paddock‘ have released their ’60 Flat Horses To Follow’ for this Flat season. Last year’s runners had a 40% win/place strike rate. 

One of these ran on Thursday – Jordon Sport – who won a shade cosily at 3/1. I don’t know if they will all be profitable to follow blind, but it is useful info. And you also get an email alert service with it. This isn’t a tipster service or a system – more a set of well researched horses who could progress further this year for various, well thought out, reasons. 

Anyway, it is a bargain at £2.97 (with 15% discount) and for every copy you buy, I make £1 which will get reinvested back into the redesign/building of this blog. So, we all win. 🙂

Anyway, have a feel down the side of your sofa for some change and follow the two step process below to get your copy…

  1. Copy this discount code: RTPROFIT15 (very important you do that) 
  2. CLICK HERE>>>

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My Punchestown notes have been having a good time of things this week – throwing up winners at 50/1 (20/1 morning of race>16/1), 12/1 (>7/1) 14/1 and 20/1 (Cup final, a decent stats snippet for Henderson) + a few decent priced placed horses, a couple of shorter priced winners also and a few losers of course. (I have only been on the 12/1 Harrington and 20/1 Hendo winners of those above, plus some decent EW returns from horses placing at 25/1, 12/1 and 12/1 – the 5th place from some bookies has been welcome!) I know others of you out there who have at least been on one or more of those winners. 

Anyway, I hope you Donations Club Members have had a good week so far and hopefully the last two days can throw up a few more winners! 

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I am not sure what I am doing tomorrow as yet – in terms of races – I may have a look at The Thirsk Hunt Cup – I assume there may be some trends somewhere – other than that I don’t believe there are any big trends/stats for all aged handicap ‘sprints’ 5-7f, but do correct me if I am wrong on that front!  There is also the Suffolk Stakes from Newmarket, a possibility.

I will have a look to see if there are any trainer angles/micros for the two day Guineas meeting. 

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TIPS 

6.50 Bangor – Cardinal Rose – 1 point win – UP- ran as if something amiss/was feeling something there, having traveled ok before a switched seemed to be flicked,carried his head awkwardly,dropped out quickly.

I am taking sanctuary in a 3m+ chase…

This horse really is the only one in the field who is proven, as a chaser, in all race conditions. This is only his 6th chase start and since coming back from an almighty long break last year (where he nearly won,suggesting trainer can ready them after an absence if he wants) hasn’t done much wrong. The race he won last time has produced plenty of subsequent winners and even though a low grade, is a good sign. He also wears his heart on his sleeve and usually tries his all. 8/1 seemed big – if he is race fit he should be right there at the death. He has had a tendency to jump right at times also, but he has won LH, and provided that isn’t too erratic we should be fine – 8s allows the chance to be taken on fitness and that RH jumping for me – in the context of this race. He needs good in the going description and handles good to soft (which it may become, showers forecast but shouldn’t be worse than that – if it is they had better withdraw him!). He has some decent chase form in the book when compared to these and I expect a bold show. 

Every horse in here has some question to answer. A lot have had hard enough winter season, many only have form on deep ground and need to prove they may handle a more lively surface (that includes the fav, who also has stamina to prove, albeit progressive and impressive LTO) and many have so far failed to deliver over fences. Money has been coming in for the Lee horse – and that can only be based on the trainer/’they know’ – I am not sure if many chasers improve for leaving Jonjo’s but we shall see – in any case that ship has sailed – on his form on paper, you wouldn’t touch him at that price- albeit there should be more to come at some stage. Maybe the Lees have worked their magic on him. I can’t really have any of the others. 

So, fingers crossed we get a decent run for our money from this one. He will try and I think jumping the last two he may look like the winner at one stage, if he is primed to run his race. 8s allows that chance. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

 Other 

A King Flat (16/1<): 2.15 Chep – Phantom River UP 16/1>8/1

**LATE UPDATE*** (11.06)

I appear to have missed the Kerry Lee chaser last night, mentioned above,which is a system qualifier…

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) 

6.50 Bang – Magheral Express – UP

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

(remember these are newly researched and have never been tested ‘live’. Smaller stakes or paper trading may be advisable for some time. You should probably have a separate bank – I would hope 50 points would be sufficient. I will update results in the weekly diary posts/monthly reviews along with everything else as usual) 

4.40 Muss – Luis Vaz Des Torres (any odds) UP

It would appear that the Chepstow main system was not saved in my HorseRaceBase account, apologies…as follows…(now double checking that the rest are saved!!)

5.05 Chep – Aaman DNQ / Cosette WON 9/2 (after R4?)  / Taste The Wind UP  (all 14/1<) 

5.40 Chep – Fuzzy Logic 2nd / Jolly Roger NR (both 14/1<) 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.55 Muss – Fumbo Jumbo – 3/1 – 11/4 – WON 2.7/1 (after R4) 11/8 SPThis one is short enough but in a way is me trying to get my ‘pace eye’ working – I am always on the look out for front runners who could get out and stay out, especially where the draw/track may be favourable. This one is an out and out front runner, he is fit, and in form. In small fields the low drawn horses do well over this distance at the track and I think he could get out, bag the rail, and play catch me if you can. His geegeez speed rating jumps out also – suggests it may be an error in truth- but we shall see. This one is me starting to get the rust off using the geegeez pace maps/speed ratings as THE ‘way in’. 

That is all for this section today.

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POST COMPLETE

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…

GET YOUR COPY HERE>>>

I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

63 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Wahay! Sendiym goes in! Hope some others had a bit on at earlies

    That Sayer system could be tweaked for next season. She’s had a bad season it seems but a bit of refinement could help wheedle out a few losers. Will look into it

    ali 10 months ago Reply


    • Yep, 45p R4 mind! but still a decent price considering, well done. Maybe, I do need to look at them soon as a collective. She has just been out of form in general, which can happen, esp with yards that size and important to analyse it properly. Will get digging at some point but any pointers from yourself welcome! Having said that, 2015 was a shocker and 2016 hasnt been much better. In that angle she was 5/41 with aged 9+ but just about profitable. Maybe it does need to be looked at – could just stick with 6 year olds! We shall see if she can turn it around – hopefully she may go on a run now.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • yep, probably helped by whatever pulled out but i’ll take that!

        will let you know what i find

        Ali 10 months ago Reply


  • I will leave the book mate, I will just put extra in my donation at the end of the month to help with the new site and stuff

    Steve 10 months ago Reply


    • Hi Steve, no need to do that. If you don’t want the book, you don’t want the book, as simple as that. – some will enjoy the read, many wont etc. But, all donations are gratefully received, you know that 🙂

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Jessica Harrington blog http://www.jessicaharringtonracing.com/
    it worth to read trainers blogs,best source of info

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


    • cheers Pab.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Im not sure but i think Bubbly Bailey is now a trainer micro system qualifier for Jenkins in the 2:40 Lingfield now at 8/1 was 14s at betfair.

    Tuckers Luck 10 months ago Reply


    • Hi Tuckers Luck – today’s Lingfield card is on the All-Weather i believe – those stats in the guide refer to the Turf track at Lingfield – I am not sure as to his AW stats there – may well be decent, and in any case he will probably now bolt up! Good luck.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • it got stuck on release, shame. put it out of contention

        the gambler 10 months ago Reply


        • y had no chance..shame

          Tuckers Luck 10 months ago Reply


  • good evening josh,are taste the wine 5.05 chepstow,fuzzy logic and jolly roger 5.40 system bets,the distance is 2m49yrds

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


    • Thanks Gerry – you have saved some potential embarrassment there – for some reason Chepstows system was not even saved in my account, hence no qualifiers posted – that has now been corrected. The current distance settings of 12-16f appear to cover those extra 49 yards but something to keep an eye on. – Have just been through the guide and all the rest are saved in there – not sure why I missed that one. Cheers!

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • I was told by someone at an event that has a share in Cape Banjo, running in the 4.00 at Chepstow that they hope the horse can go on to be better class than this type of race. I have got on at 8/1. They were trying to sell me a share in the syndicate etc. but I did not wish to. If they are right it must go close here. If they are wrong they will find out if it does not win.

    Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


    • Thanks. Jockey and Trainer have a very record at Chepstow as well.

      Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


      • I was on at 8/1 and so can afford to go each way.

        Another horse I noticed with the same type of profile is The Juggler in the 3.45 at Lingfield. I got 7/1 last night late but I see it is now 5/1. Again each way I think.

        Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


        • Hi Martin. Garry Moore has a few out today. Any thoughts?

          daniel 10 months ago Reply


          • Not heard anything yet. I will see what I can find out.

            Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


          • They apparently have a few fancies at FP but when pushed he thought that Knightly Pleasure in the 8.05 may be the best chance. 9/2 still available.

            Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


        • Me thinks The Juggler is going to struggle on the figures with Recognition at least (another One Trick for Mr Varian?) but trainer Ed Walker put up Judicial Enquiry as his one to follow for the season in this week’s Weekender, saying backward last year & needed run (favourite again) last time. ‘She is smallish but works like a good one at home & will be winning races.’ Been beaten fav a few times.

          Andy Silvers 10 months ago Reply


          • Ok fair enough, we shall see.

            Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


        • Sorry about this one, it an like an absolute pig!

          Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


    • Cape Banjo ran like a dog with 3 legs, so sorry.

      Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


      • Occasionally I feel the urge to apologise, normally when I haven’t backed the winner, as opposed to one falling out the back of the TV – as I have missed something. A reminder that you are only human haha – there will be many more of those!!

        Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • It came out of the stalls awkwardly Martin, it happens….no need for sorry….cheers.

        Tony 10 months ago Reply


  • Two from the Mullins camp that I think fit the stats at Punchy – 4.20 Sambremont (handicapper aged 6, 2 runs prev 90 days, maybe , 12/1) and 7.10 Some Neck (NHF, no run or 1 or 2 LTO). The second selection is the father and son connection that I have backed 5 times so far this week and had 3 winners.

    Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


    • Hope you backed the other qualifier Martin in 4.20, was short enough in a race like that at 6s but did it well! His record with that type is bordering on the ridiculous.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Trying to get that book from pickofthepaddocks but when paying it keeps telling me the code is wrong.
    Tried upper and lower case but neither works.Would like the book but no point if you cant collect your
    fee.

    Tom 10 months ago Reply


    • Hi Tom…I have just tried it and it works fine my end – try copy and pasting the code above, and it may be your brower, or are you using a phone or something? It may be an errant ‘space’ or something. Pasting the above does work. I am not sure! a handful have had problems.’
      Thanks for your concern as to my cut, much appreciated.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • Worked alright for me – though there was a confusing batch of emails – just hope the tracker thing works cos I wont get time to read it lol

        Andy Silvers 10 months ago Reply


      • Hi Josh….same happened with me…took full price even with code….but I’m not going to argue over a quid….lol…sorry lad.

        Tony 10 months ago Reply


        • Hi Tony…. same here

          Bill 10 months ago Reply


  • hi josh

    fancy a 125 to 1 winner? who wouldnt.the great hugh taylor gave 2 tips to back singles and a double a bit back, that both won @ 4 to 1, I won about £900 on that bet.
    he said was one of his favourite systems, backing horse having first run on turf, current season to 30 april when trained by stuart kittow.. althouh 4 or so other have lost since then, RUSSIAN RASCAL is available @ 125 to 1 on betvictor I have had £15 win @ 155 to 1 on betfair! fingers

    malcolm pendrey 10 months ago Reply


    • Worth a fiver to find out.
      Cheers,
      Paul

      Paul 10 months ago Reply


      • These comments kill me. 100/1, fear of missed losses.
        10 ew placed

        the gambler 10 months ago Reply


        • Can only think he is being qualified for handicaps but then the massive step up in trip is intriguing. I suppose I will have to throw something at him, just in case! Cheers Malcolm.

          Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


          • Gutted, could only get 100/1! If it wins I am off to a casino to play up the luck.

            Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


    • never in it, made up a few places though. good fun

      the gambler 10 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh…Thanks for the book link…always gd to get info as quality is hard to find. Your blog and e mails a gd source of info about what is out there as there is so much that it is hard to distinguish the gd from the bad..with you as a “filter” your info is always quality even if you do not decide to purchase as making horse selections to bet is always problematical…sifting, prioritising info. and trying to get the emphasis right is always difficult…should you go for trainer, jockey, horse, going, distance, class, well hdcpd horse, draw bias etc., are all things to consider to say nothing about staking, banks etc….one site I use regularly is Betdaq…this is not a plug as I have no financial involvement in promoting any site…they have recently introduced Proform stats for every race…you cannot access this without having an account..you do not have to have a bet, merely to be an account holder….it is a really useful source of information as it gives sire info as well as draw and pace bias…the latter has been extremely useful in highlighting bigger priced horses that can run into a place and win at decent odds…I realise everyone has their own methodology but I do say check it out….Ladbrokes I think took the site over though it is still trading as Betdaq so if you have an account with them maybe you can access via your existing account…I do not know..anyway thought the info would be another weapon in the search to find profits…cheers John

    John G 10 months ago Reply


    • Hi John,

      Thanks for comment – that is very useful info to know indeed and I will go and have a look! – if I can remember by Betdaq details! had no idea about the proform info and given that is one of the more pricey pieces of software I believe, any free info from them is welcome – they do produce quality stuff from the free reports I have looked at etc. Pace/Draw is vital info for the flat.
      Cheers

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • Cheer Josh, Certainly hope you can check it out and let your members know if you think it is worth them investigating for themselves so they can benefit…I personally am a very small punter .50p etc but this has been very useful since it is packed with info…I personally am biased to draw and going details combined with distance and class wins, together with sire distance winners but that is just my preference…certainly worth checking…enjoy John

        John G 10 months ago Reply


    • Cheers John G….i’ll have a look at that too.

      Tony 10 months ago Reply


      • Oh ffs! Only a 20 page Help guide pdf to read b4 racing starts lol but thanks me use Betdaq all the time & never noticed that!

        So who’s going to beat Vroum Vroum Mag – I think she a better chaser?

        Andy Silvers 10 months ago Reply


        • V V mag for the win.
          Mullins triple today (with a toi phil (ew), bello conti (w))

          the gambler 10 months ago Reply


  • Morning Josh,
    No wheelbarrow needed yesterday with Sir Scorpion but Cup Final saved the day and a great days racing.Startng to. fade on day 4 but hoping Aupcharlie in the last will get blood flowing.

    Linda ashford 10 months ago Reply


    • Morning Linda, some effort to go for whole meeting – I am shot by Day 3 at Aintree!! Ah glad you had Cup Final, good to hear – yep it was a cracking day by the looks of it – watching Douvan live is a special sight. Yea Sir Scorpion was a tad poor! Good Luck today.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Pairofbrowneyes 4.20 P/T…is from an irish system of mine…it’s price is 9/1 at the moment…
    Problem…it ran on Wednesday and came 3rd…..surely it can’t re-race over a further furlong as well.??
    mmm a problem.

    Tony 10 months ago Reply


    • If its a system and you like the price, go for it. Sayer brought one out 2 days later at Perth that won for us – some horses relsh returning quickly – haven;t looked at horse, or race – so have no idea if he actually stays that further trip…

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


    • maybe previous race was just a warm up
      price is nice

      STAR ASCENDING 1-45 CHEPSTOW 5/1 has good chance

      Pab 10 months ago Reply


    • I bet it ew….got 3rd….again..lol.

      Tony 10 months ago Reply


  • oh i backed the lee chaser last night at 8/1 josh,forgot to mention it here,she might be able to get better out of him than johnjo,hard to know if her season is winding down,some of hers put in performances suggesting that they needed a break,i also backed mercers court 6.30 fontwell on trainer and jockeys course and recent form,its a really competitive race though,venetian lad loves it here,all the trainers there in good current form,we shall see

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


    • Yep, missed him annoyingly! A saver at 8s is better than 5s! Never mind – yep maybe she will – I was blinded by all the Punchestown Micros on my HRB screen. Market suggests much is expected and at least he will be fresher than most. Cardinal Rose on the drift which, when a horse is making a return, is rarely a positive!

      Yesterday/Today clearly wasnt a good day for all things system tracking!! I am glad you were on the ball.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Jolly Roger – NR

    the gambler 10 months ago Reply


    • 5.40 Chep – Fuzzy Logic same race is better tip
      Jolly Roger was main competitor

      Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    For today’s potential qualifiers of your Main Trainer System for Chepstow you state that the odds restrictions are 14-1 or less,
    yet in your TTP guide for that course just below the statistics for the particular trainer it states those priced over 8-1 are
    currently 0/8, 1 place.

    Please can you clarify whether the odds restrictions should be 8-1 or less, or 14-1 or less.

    Thank you

    Stuart McLauchlan 10 months ago Reply


    • Yes, hi Stuart – I did notice that typo this morning – the odds cap is 14/1 or shorter – …where I have written 8/1 in the guide, below the system table, that should read those priced over 14/1 – that 0/8, 1 p figure relates to those over 14/1 SP. Apologies for that confusion.
      Josh

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Nice 8/1 winner at chepstow on the earlis

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


    • Just got there didnt he! Easy to find – anxious photo but a comfortable shoulder in the end! Kings halved in price but ran no sort of race. Anyway. close second for Balding’s one earlier also.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • Power of the stats. mini boom

        daniel 10 months ago Reply


  • actually thought fav had got up,just shows theres much more in the stats for the purchasers

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


  • Distant High was a winner from the TTP…returned a decent price too..was not on doh!!

    Tuckers Luck 10 months ago Reply


  • I took a punt on the Franny Norton/Paul Henderson duo of runners,Meldrum Dream 4.00 and Renewing 5.05 considering how they perform at chepstow,first selection won and renewing is now 9/1 from 14

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh,finally may internet was enough strong to purchase ebook

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


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