Members Report 27/04/16 (COMPLETE)

VERY IMPORTANT: Rather embarrassingly quite a major error was brought to my attention in my Trainer Track Profiles Report – and specifically the Handicap Debut stats for PONTEFRACT – I am aware of what I did wrong (clicked wrong box near the one I was meant to in HRB,maybe not enough,or too much, coffee that day! And I am confident that is the only such error) 

Anyway, Page 72 is the culprit and it is just the ‘Handicap Debut Stats‘ for Pontefract. You can find a replacement page, with the correct stats, below. Of course you are all welcome to get hold of this one page, whether you have bought the guide or not, but this is the easiest way to amend that error. Apologies again…

CLICK HERE FOR REPLACEMENT PAGE>>>

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PETITION...there is a parliamentary petition which is calling on bookmakers to accept all legitimate bets up to and including £25. 

You can sign this petition if you wish at the link below, and given the number of you who read this blog on a regular basis would probably more than double the number on there already…

PETITION LINK HERE>>>

 

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A nice winner for the Stats/Angles of Interest section to leave that on +1.5 points profit for the day, if backing them all. Also a close 2nd at 10/1.

I should clarify that although those horses in that section are ‘pointers’ and there for you to use as you see fit, I don’t post them up unless I am happy to put my own money on them- and will usually have between 1/2 to 1 point on them, sometimes a 1/4.(esp All-Weather which I really do not get on with!-there won’t be many of those in coming weeks)  (so£5,£10,£20 for me) 

On the micro systems – Meehan hasn’t started that well from memory, trying to think if any of his have ran well, esp the maiden runners. That angle will throw up the odd biggie,but will be some peaks and troughs. 

Hopefully you Trainer Track Profiles users backed the one system bet on Tuesday at 7/1. I know some of you took the 10s earlier, given the trainer/jockey combo stats also. Well done. Those ‘main system bets’ from that guide are ticking along nicely enough. 

A few of you Donations Club members also used your Punchestown stats to back Jessica Harrington’s 16/1 winner, (probably bigger this morning?)- continuing her fine record in non-handicap hurdles at the meeting. I didn’t. Idiot. (oh god, apparently he was 50/1 the day before – I need a stiff drink!) 

And finally, in what are becoming ever lengthening ‘daily wraps’ well done again to you fine contributors. A 16/1 winner at Notts which was fancied by a couple of you and a winner for Gary Moore at around 4/1 also highlighted. Not bad, I suppose 🙂 Well done, again! 

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TIPS 

None. That may be a familiar tale mid-week, at least until the flat season settles down and I research some decent ‘class dropping’ profile horses for the flat. There will be the odd summer jumper as well, when that all gets going. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None. 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Pontefract

2.00 -Springforth – 8/1 – 3rd – you really can’t go wrong backing Mr Fahey’s 1st time out 2 year olds at this track and given the profit levels it suggests some go off relatively unfancied- maybe this one will bolt up, maybe he won’t, but over time you wont do too badly with this type.

4.50 – The Lynch Man – 12/1 – UP- another who looks weak enough in the market but JJ Quin is 2/7, 5 places with handicap debutants at the track (Geegeez report for that snippet) The trainer is in decent form and again the price lured me in. There are some more fancied ones at the top of the market but you have to take these types on! 

5.25 – Piccardo – 8/1 -12/1 – UP – this one is on the drift which is a concern but he ticks plenty of boxes as you may see from the ‘free page’ for Ponte above. It is a 3yo only handicap, he is making his handicap debut and returns after 90 days – Fahey is strong on all of those fronts – a good stats fit – clearly he will probably trail in last now but I can’t resist a nibble and you should never not bet just because of a drift! (hard to know if a bad sign or not sometimes and plenty of drifters win)

Ascot

3.55 – Dhahmaan – 10/1 – UP – Botti has a decent record here in C1 Listed and above races – clearly there are some race fit, interesting rivals in here but he will at least like any cut in the ground. I have had 1/2 point on this one – fitness a question, and danger or the top two – but he ‘could be anything’ this year, including being better than those two. 

Brighton

6.50- Shifting Star – 6/1 -UP is a main system bet from the guide (provided his SP is 7/1 or under, which could be the case, albeit plenty of time to drift – Bridger does have bigger priced winners with this angle,they are just hard to find and unprofitable long term- but we will back a drifter one day that wins) The trainer/jockey stats are also strong – all the same pointers that led to yesterday’s 10/1>7/1>13/2 winner for stats guide users. I think you could put a line through his last run on account of the going – he is getting on but Bridger clearly knows how to keep the fire burning with these types. 

Punchestown

There are a few decent pointers I have picked out using my notes for horses around 12/1,(that one is a main micro system bet) 7/1, 25/1 plus a few NHF horses of interest – but, you will have to join the Donations Club and get hold of my stats to dig those out! 🙂 We shall see how they all get on and I will give an honest report back tomorrow. 

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That is all for today. Post Complete. 

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…

GET YOUR COPY HERE>>>

I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

40 Comments

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  • I used TTP for the first time Tuesday and managed to hit 3/6 on BF at 4.0, 6.9 and 10.6 at small stakes but I now have a free guide and some!! Thanks so much for putting in the hours to create the guide.

    Chris Albin 9 months ago Reply


    • Great to hear Chris, top work! Yep, paid for already! Small stakes doesn’t matter, most on here are small stakes punters I think and important thing is that you enjoy it! That’s what its about. A good start.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


    • HI josh, agree excellent guide, I was wondering if you are going to email daily qualifiers at all or have an option for that, do not with current working commitments have the time to dig out all daily qualifiers so would be useful to have an email summary or a page of qualifiers, purely to save me time and sure it would help other purchasers too – Thanks Mark

      Mark Edwards 9 months ago Reply


      • Hi Mark –
        I am thinking about it! – Firstly I would only post the main trainer system bets per track – I have a conundrum or two…firstly these systems are new, untested live – and I did not want to charge this time for such a service on that basis – i havent even paper traded them for 6 months etc – they are well researched though!! 🙂 – linked to that – if those systems perform in line with history, and lets say make 60-100+ points over next 6 months – that is, to be frank, a £97+ stand alone service – which is why in the guide I suggested those that wish to follow the systems get a HorseRaceBase account and add them in yourself – would take and hour or two maybe but would be worth it…

        So, I can confirm that for this season I won’t be emailing out the main system bets but there is one more option…

        and that is I could just post them on the Blog, in the daily posts, for free. Now, a) that may piss off all those that have bought guide and see those that haven’t getting some of the best (potentially) info for free b) a load that have bought it may decide they only want to follow those and they all rush to the ‘refund button’ (not good for me!- I have to eat haha) …
        But, on the other hand, those main systems are only a very small snippet of what is in the guide. And, given they are untested etc, maybe posting them/tracking them live on the blog will be no bad thing.

        I will post some thoughts tomorrow and test the mood. I am conscious that is an issue for some.

        Next season, if they perform, and when the blog is redesigned, I would probably post them in a ‘members’ area for Donations Club Members. That is also an option.

        Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


        • As you know I donate, my reason for not purchasing the latest guide is twofold, time and I work mainly with speed figures which is somewhat different to your approach.
          I would appreciate the daily consenus of the guide material.

          Clavis 9 months ago Reply


  • Josh, re the Meehan Maiden runners at Bath, his record there with horses having their Second only run since 2010 is :

    Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
    7 5 71.43% 5.78 0 0.00%

    His record since 2010 at All tracks second run is:
    Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
    245 50 20.41% 53.94 44 17.96%

    Richard Sutton 9 months ago Reply


  • Sorry, got a bit squeezed up on the rails there!

    Richard Sutton 9 months ago Reply


    • Yep agree they appear to be more predictable with a run – but he does have the odd 1st time out – 6/39, +95 BFSP within the angle I use in the micro systems – and they invariably go off quite big! Will be a bumpy road with those ones though. Hopefully when some of these come out again we will cash in also!

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • The Jessica Harrington horse was a killer Josh.
    I’m still kicking myself for only putting £2.50 ew on it at 33/1 but £108 for a £5 stake has softened the blow somewhat.

    Mike Webster 9 months ago Reply


    • Well Mike,you had £5 more on him than I did! That is racing,albeit with stats of 5/25 in non hncp hurdles last 5 festivals for massive profits,I am still kicking myself for not having a go. That’s racing and I am a dreamer,living in hope that similar stats in the future will keep finding those winners. Next time! (which is my favourite phrase haha)

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • Had a terrible time backing the favourites; vatour, yorkhill, outlander… Couldn’t resist but all let me down. Chucked away a chunk of profit from the past week. I do have a soft spot for cue card however….

    The Gambler 9 months ago Reply


    • End of season syndrome for some. Too much racing too often. I would not want to go short odds on Cue Card because of that.

      I hear that the Johnston and French combo fancy their chances of beating the favourite in the 3.45 at Ponte. Deodoro.

      Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


      • Yes I think I will be a spectator for cue card today. Would need a lump to get a good return with all the if’s and buts.
        (Thanks for your tips also along the way also, a good community building here)

        The Gambler 9 months ago Reply


  • A bit more food for thought on the Jessica Harrington angle…
    According to the Racing Post stats on her hurdle runners in Ireland, Barry Geraghty (Don’t Push It) has a 24% strike rate while Robbie Power (Modem) is 14%. Needless to say I only saw this after the event. Today Paddy Kennedy (Candlestick) has only 8% strike rate – just watch it win.

    Steve Whitelaw 9 months ago Reply


    • Yep, jockey bookings are interesting – quite a few for BG may have been in the green and gold, even before he was the main man – Jezki etc? – all the stars aligned after the event for that one! Power is a decent enough jockey and I have no issues on that front – Candlestick is a decent enough EW bet with 5 places – and also her record with handicap debutants at the track is decent, as it is at this meeting with horses that won LTO. I hope I am watching it win! But fear I may have missed her decent priced winner!!

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


      • Stats are open to interpretation. As Steve points out, Gerraghty has a better strike rate than Power, but on the other hand Barry’s rides will be overbet and Power’s less so. Leading to Power having level stakes profits of £38.79 (win) and £57.45 (ew) from 4 winners and 11 placed horses from 19 rides at Punchy for Harrington in last 5 years. somebody once told me its about profit not the number of winners you back – very good advice.

        Alistair Hart 9 months ago Reply


        • You are not wrong there, on both fronts. Stats are only ever a guide, albeit there are some you can be confident to just back blind over time. Jockey stats are interesting and personally they never decide a bet for me – either putting me off or backing them (unless a trainer jockey combo at track that i just follow anyway) – but you can read too much into bookings and a jockeys stand alone stats at a track can be misleading – albeit clearly there are sometimes big negatives. All about price also, as it always is.
          And you final point is spot on – but depends on the individual – I am profit driven,and at odds I play at in general that means lower win SR – 17-25% (hovers between that generally) but if average odds of winners are around 8/1 – (which my NH tips were) – your betting bank can only go one way! On the other hand, some want more action and need to back winners more regularly, which is fair enough – we are all different.

          Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


    • Hi Steve

      Your stats got me wanting to delve further and having looked at just the Harrington Punchestown Festival stats over the past 3 years and this one and at the moment whilst Geraghty has a better strike rate of 3/5, about 2/3rds of the profits come with Power on-board. Kennedy has yet to have any winners but only for a very small sample size and he did place with Candlestick today.

      Nick Mazur 9 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I agree on Piccardo. The other thing to note is Hamilton/Fahey have a 33% strike rate (52% place rate) in handicaps here over the past 2 years.

    Nick Mazur 9 months ago Reply


  • Morning Josh,
    Punchestown paid for from yesterday’s Harrington winner.Happy days.
    Have a feeling Woodland opera will run well today

    Thanks Josh

    Linda ashford 9 months ago Reply


    • My pleasure. Ah pleased to hear you were on, and you were there to boot? brilliant! Yep, that is another I have had a nibble at, been well backed I think, not sure what price he was last night but plenty of blue on odds checker. Good luck today.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • I like Elusive Ivy a bit in the first at Punch – trainer on the up is 3/7 at course including a CD with this one which beside previous dual winner of race aged 11 is only other CD in race.

    & Tobouggaloo slightly for jockey & figures in the last – has disappointed on softish before so the drier the better?

    20/s & 33/s respectively.

    Andy Silvers 9 months ago Reply


    • Andy – one of my paid Tipsters sp2a has tipped elusive ivy but with the caveat that it is first reserve and as at now (11.26) nothing has so far come out of the race, their fall back is Pivot Bridge but hopefully EI will get a run.

      Ian 9 months ago Reply


  • A word of caution re Springforth in the 2.00. Firstly, Pontefract has a favourable draw bias for stalls 1-6. This was a ten runner race but the runners in stalls 9 and 10 are now non runners. That leaves the Fahey runner widest of all and usually with a two year old having it’s first run, they swerve away from the other runners if they are on the wide outside when the gates open.

    Richard Sutton 9 months ago Reply


    • Yep, agree that would be a concern – I would say at 8/1 that allows that to be overlooked, but yes his race could be over after 1 furlong – but he may have the best gate speed and be forward, know his job etc – Fahey’s stats suggest that I am not best overthinking his 2yo 1st time outers here as you get the odd surprise on paper. We shall see.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • Josh is anything worth a punt in the Cheltenham meeting today? Looks a fairly low-key affair to me.

    Jack 9 months ago Reply


    • Hi Jack – it is the Hunter Chase evening – and certainly for hunter chase/point to point followers it is the highlight of the year! Anything but low-key….albeit for me it is low-key betting wise – that is a specialism in itself and what I know about hunter chasers you could write on the back of a very very small stamp. In those type of races I think the market is a decent guide, albeit I may have a flick through but I doubt I will be betting on anything.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


      • Thanks for the response Josh. Obviously I have much to learn in the racing world!

        Jack 9 months ago Reply


        • I did have a quick chat with someone I respect in this sphere and he gave me two at a price… Barrel Of Laughs (18:25) & Doctor Braveheart (17:15) – I have no idea but may have had a small EW bet on the two for fun.

          (there is always plenty to learn, it will never be mastered – which is part of this game’s attraction!)

          Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


          • Good 2nd for Braveheart thanks Josh. BOL has been backed a bit so fingers crossed.

            Jack 9 months ago Reply


          • Unlucky there Josh,two 2nds at huge prices mate-would have been a good each way double!!

            Mick 9 months ago Reply


  • Pat Smullen rarely leaves Ascot Winless,its probably to ride gifted master 3.55 for Hugo Palmer,but has 2 outside rides in Burmese 3.20 and Hors de combat 4.30,both round 10/1

    gerry 9 months ago Reply


  • Trainer Alan Hill likes this Hunter Chase meeting Jack. Note any of his runners tonight.

    Steve 9 months ago Reply


    • He spends more time keeping Lawney happy though I hear !

      Ian 9 months ago Reply


  • I see that there has been money for The Nipper n the 7.15. I m told that it is not from the stable. They think the horse will be competitive but see the race as being difficult enough to win without having a gamble.

    Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • In the 3.55 Josh could be worth having a small B365 s/f saver on Dhahmaan to be second to the fav (10/1).

    Richard Sutton 9 months ago Reply


  • Was Blow by Blow a qualifier for Mullins at Puchestown? thanks

    Tuckers Luck 9 months ago Reply


    • Not a qualifier as such but I did put up record of Mullins NHF runners going off at 14/1 or shorter – have been decent profits last 5 Festivals. The one angle I did home in on with his NHF qualifiers had a 12/1 odds cap guide – was 0/8, 0 places with that angle with those at 14/1 or bigger. That is how it goes. Some hopefully used the notes to have a nibble.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • Andy & Ian, Elusive Ivy gets a run tomorrow albeit over 4f shorter.

    Chris Randall 9 months ago Reply


    • Chris – noted, thank you.

      Ian 9 months ago Reply


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