VERY IMPORTANT: Rather embarrassingly quite a major error was brought to my attention in my Trainer Track Profiles Report – and specifically the Handicap Debut stats for PONTEFRACT – I am aware of what I did wrong (clicked wrong box near the one I was meant to in HRB,maybe not enough,or too much, coffee that day! And I am confident that is the only such error)
Anyway, Page 72 is the culprit and it is just the ‘Handicap Debut Stats‘ for Pontefract. You can find a replacement page, with the correct stats, below. Of course you are all welcome to get hold of this one page, whether you have bought the guide or not, but this is the easiest way to amend that error. Apologies again…
Well if you are still not convinced as to the potential power of trainer track stats then well, you never will be. And that is fair enough. But you are missing out.
I was hoping the flat season would see my ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ section of the blog add a bit more value to our punting day and so far so good.
I put up 5 horses on Monday and they finished… 1,1,UP,1,4… at morning odds of 5/1, 5/1, 7/2, 10/1 (4th)
I also said that all of Adiran Keatley’s runners at Ayr were worthy of note – two more won at 5/4 and 8/1 – I dismissed the first on odds, and didn’t quite fancy the other one on paper – sometimes you should just trust the stats!! (I did have a bet in the end, for small money,due to success of others earlier on)
I do like trainer stats, especially on the Flat! I should have put some in multiples, I never do! 🙂 (again!) Clearly not all days are like that, but it does show the potential. 1 point win on all bets would have left a +11.5 point profit – or £230 to £20 stakes. That will do nicely for a quiet Monday afternoon.
Meehan Maidens: 4.30 Bath: Ma Peek (any odds) UP
A King Flat (16/1<): 4.45 Nott – Paddys Runner UP
Pam Sly Females (any odds)
2.35 Nott: Roxie Lot NR
3.05 Nott: Ghinia – 2nd 7/1>5/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Remember these are NOT tips, just stats pointers and ‘ways in’. I would hope on the Flat that they will become profitable to back blind/systematically but as yet that is unproven.
Using my stats guide a few caught the eye. I won’t keep revealing the stats but if you have a guide you will know why the ‘way in’ caught the eye. This is a more ‘considered’ list, from an initial longer list of horses of interest. I may well have ended up highlighting the wrong ones!
5.05 – Scarpeta – 10/1 – 2nd 11/2 – goes here for Johnston. He ticks a few stats boxes for his type of winners here and has been gelded since last run. Jockey is 2/7,4 places at the track, and given what Charlie Johnston has said in the past (they use jockey/track stats to influence riding plans) maybe that is no accident that he has been booked. (albeit a small sample)
4.05 – Nag’s Wags – 11/2 – WON 4/1 –This trainer does well here and he is also in decent form. He is also 2/6,3 places with stable newcomers 1st time out from other yards in the last year. (that stat from Geegeez Gold Reports) There is a line of blue on oddschecker which would add to confidence at this early stage. Fitness is a question.
4.40 – Port Lairge – 7/1 – UP goes for a trainer that does well here also, and even more so when this jockey is up. They team up with one in the 3.30 but he seems weak in the market and goes up against a few race fit rivals, he is shorter than this one also. This one had a pipe opener LTO over a trip that stretched him and he may put up a more promising performance today.
3.35 – MistyMoistyMorning – 40/1 -UP- Gosden looks to have a hot pot in here but I have seen worse 40/1 shots- maybe he wont be fit but race conditions should be fine and his geegeez speed figure is interesting. The stat is from Geegeez Gold also – Ryan is 3/11,4 places with stable newcomers 1st time out in last year and a couple have gone in at decent odds I believe. He may not be winning this but now the Fahey horse is out,he could grab place money. Maybe. (all the caveats!)
4.10- Mollies Girl – 25/1 – UP- Trainer and jockey do well here. I may want to see some money come, or maybe not a drift, but she steps up quite a bit in distance and has 103 days off the track – one of those strange breaks which catches the eye – could be positive, could be negative. It is only her second turf start also and could be another lively outsider.
That is all for today. Post Complete
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
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