Members Report: 23/04/16 (COMPLETE)

 

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BIG RACE PREVIEW

4.10 Sandown

Henri Parry Morgan – 1 point win – 10/1 –  Fell 5/1 

The Druids Nephew – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) 5th 

Hadrian’s Approach – 1 point win – 16/1 (general)  UP 10/1

A decent race here, where you could make cases for quite a few. But, at the prices, these three will do for me. 

Henri Parry Morgan – We backed him the last day and we got a fine run for our money. That was a decent race and this young, progressive, still ‘could be anything’ type is well worth a go at this trip. They clearly think he is smart – Bowen can’t have had many that he pitches into G1s – and he could keep on improving here. 10s felt just about ok, although I don’t think I would want shorter in a race of this nature. It looks like young Bowen may have had permission from his boss to ride him also – as I suspect he could have been on Just A Par. He also comes top on the Geegeez speed figures and top on the HorseRaceBase ratings – when a horse does both that always catches my eye –  not enough for Loose Chips at Kempton the other day – he ticked those two boxes also. Anyway, provided he is over that last run we should get a good spin round here. He may not stay, but given his class and the way he is going,his form, liking for the ground etc I thought 10s was fair enough. 

The Druids Nephew – The ground went against him last time and my bet on him was over before the race had begun. That ground affected his jumping I suspect. He should relish conditions here and could have had a harder race LTO. He has two eye-catching runs – that win at Cheltenham and in last season’s Grand National. I don’t think he is done with yet and he had a campaign built around the last race, and should still be fresh enough here. Over this trip there could be more to come and at 16s I was happy to take a chance that a) – he could bounce back on the ground and b)- the handicapper may not have him just yet, over a trip like this. 16s seemed decent enough. 

Hadrian’s Approach – Well he won this in 2014 and gets to sneak in at the bottom here. Race conditions should be fine and he ran well enough at Kempton on his return, before coming unstuck early LTO. But, at least he should be fresh. Hendo is starting to go a bit quiet again and this one can hit the odd fence, but if putting it all together he would out-run these odds. He is also below his last winning mark. Hendo has made a habit of bringing chasers back this year, or eeking out more when all has seemed lost, and this could be another one to add to that list. I was happy to have a dart and at the odds was the final one to stand out to me. 

Of the rest…well you could make a case for a few, including those two at the top of the market – but 8s is short enough in a race of this nature. Bishops Road is interesting, if handling the ground, and although that race he won LTO hasn’t worked out he did look like a stayer to keep onside at Haydock. Not much I can say to put you off him – the lively ground was my only concern, but I suppose that is built into his price. Caroles Destrier is interesting and could run a big race – we know he likes the track/trip – he is another where the ground is a slight question and he was running a bit below par for me LTO – this could have been the target of course. That race he won here wasn’t the strongest and he will need to step up again. But he could.  Dynaste did catch the eye at a big prce – he has been mixing it in G1s and this is his first run in a handicap chase I think – but he is out of sorts and this trip is a real unknown – his best form being around 2m5f really. It also looks like team Pipe have started to think about their summer holidays. But he could out-run those odds. There was nothing else in here that really caught my eye and that I would want to be with

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MICRO SYSTEMS

April Trainer

5.20 Sand: Daveron (16/1<) DNQ

Other 

A King Flat (16/1<) : 2.40 Ripon: Grumeti UP

Sat TJC:

2.55 Sand: Menorah (14/1<) WON 5/1

4.10 Sand: Sausalito Sunrise (14/1<) DNQ 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing today. I don’t have the energy to look this morning, apologies. As always, I am sure some of you good readers will lead us to some interesting bets…

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POST COMPLETE

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

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I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

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About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

32 Comments

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  • 2.20 SP tomorrow, Darebin 20/1 Paddy Power. Gary and Jamie 6/9 on the course in the last 12 months. Will post again tomorrow if hear stable whispers.

    Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


    • All I have heard is that the horse is going well and they are sticking a visor on it to try to squeeze some more improvement out.

      Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • Also at 20/1, 3.20 HP You’re Fired, usually runs well second time out each season!

    Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


    • Yeah, Andrew Mount has flagged that up on gg.co.uk…3/3 on second run of the season, won on only previous Haydock appearance, plus the yard won the race last year. Paddys have just cut to the general 16s, though.
      Paul

      Paul 9 months ago Reply


      • Cheers gents, that was rather good fun to watch! A clear profile that one, and he does it again!

        Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


      • BOOOOOOM Great pick won with ease up the rail great price thanks

        Gary Tarrant 9 months ago Reply


    • Thanks martin for Hermosa Vaquera..

      daniel 9 months ago Reply


      • That is ok. They think at the Moore stable that they may be coming back into some form. We shall see? Perhaps the flat may bring them a few winners?

        Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • Yes thank you Martin for Hermosa

    Barry 9 months ago Reply


  • Thanks again for Hermosa….Cheers.

    Tony 9 months ago Reply


  • Given we are getting five places in a 20 runner race going with Carole’s Destrier, The Young Master and Spring Heeled agianst the field in the B365 Gold Cup.

    Nick Mazur 9 months ago Reply


    • Maybe a finale for the season from Kerry Lee, Bishops Road?

      Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


      • The Master finally does the business after so many close misses.

        Nick Mazur 9 months ago Reply


        • Yep well done Nick, perfectly good bet, I just couldn’t resist a nibble at those at bit bigger odds – that Chelt run was decent. No complaints from my three, at one stage they all looked like they may go close. Great race, great ride on winner.

          Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


          • The Druids Nephew did not get into the race until too late. Do you think he needs extreme distances now or is he handicapped out of it now?

            Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • Martin, great info on Hermosa, your becoming a bit of a star. Had a bit on Midhmaar e/w 20’s at Sandown. Your not Josh in disguise are you lol

    Greg

    greg 9 months ago Reply


    • I try to come up with ways to beat the bookies and talking to people at the races and on forums builds you a network. I have to buy them a drink or give them a few quid when they come up with something. Try to do a bit of analysis when I get time as well. Beats working.

      Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


      • We are starting to get all bases covered on here – I don’t have Martin;s contacts and that type of info adds a lot to these pages – many ways to skin a racing cat and it is good to know when a yard really fancy one of theirs. Good stuff.

        Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • Hi Martin,
    Many thanks to the invalauble info and insight. I am still trying to pin down T. Vaughan managed to back the wrong one at Chepstow last night backed Hermose thanks to you and had saver on Prince Of thieves.

    Roy Bedford 9 months ago Reply


  • Queen’s runners today – just noticed Close Touch gone 25/s from 18/s, Hendo is 1-8-16 in race so place prospects promising, bit out of form tho?

    23Apr16 1:40 Daphne HAYDOCK (Overnight), ApolloBet Home of Cashback Offers Maiden Stakes Bet now 3
    23Apr16 5:10 Wishpoint LEICESTER (Overnight), totepool Betting On All UK Racing Maiden Stakes Bet now 14

    23Apr16 5:55 Close Touch SANDOWN (Overnight), bet365 Handicap Hurdle Bet now 25

    Andy Silvers 9 months ago Reply


    • Hendo’s horses are finding nothing off the bridle recently and unable to pinpoint a cause.

      Chris 9 months ago Reply


      • clearly he has run out of his usual supplier….he has form and if he weren’t Nicky Henderson he would have been treated very differently!

        Ian 9 months ago Reply


        • Yes, that was a disgraceful episode, I agree.
          And Main’s wife continues as a trainer too.

          Chris 9 months ago Reply


  • I have had a look at the Listed Race at Lester as it the only decent non handicap on the Flat today. I like the Balding Horse ‘Here Comes When’ which usually runs in a slightly higher class. I would prefer it to have been over a mile but does okay at seven furlongs as well. Fine on the ground and record after a lay off/first time out is 12112. Priced around 15/2 BOG or higher on Betfair.

    Coulsty is likely to run well also( priced at 14/1) in the same race.

    Richard Sutton 9 months ago Reply


  • 3.25 leicester is an intersting race today. 3yo tackling 1m4f at this time of the season is a tough ask. Injam caught my eye lto, outpaced over 1m2f before running on at the finish to finish 2nd to another runner in the field today, Hereawi. Giving Hereawi a 5lb filly allowance lto, Injam looked like catching the front runner over further. They run off same weight today over 2f further. The 4th from that maiden has since won a hcap, so that could have been a decent enough race. Injam is 14/1 while Hereawi around 4/1, I know which one i’ll be backing!

    James M 9 months ago Reply


  • Thanks for the tips!

    Cant leave Le Reve alone here personally. Having such a good season, even pretty good runs in the BetBright Chase and the National, plus we know what a solid record he has RH and on this track. Solid enough e/w bet for me

    Sentimental money on Drop Out Joe – just love the way he jumps! Aidan Coleman back on board, and a long Winter break which suggests maybe this race has been inked in for a while

    Ali 9 months ago Reply


    • Ali – a very decent paid tipster who I subscribe to and use who does very well in these big Saturday races is a Le Reve fan but this is what he says today ” I would have been very keen on Le Reve given his Course form and you would have thought he would have been laid out for this race although he is at the limit of his stamina range and handicap scope, what I cannot work out though is why they sent him to Aintree, he is nothing like the horse left handed as he is right handed and it will have taken a lot out of him in terms of travel and the emotion of the race/day, if it had not been for that I think he would have been a great e/w shout, still may be with odds to 5th”…..an interesting angle and quite a logical one I think .

      Ian 9 months ago Reply


      • Hello Ian could I get the name of the tipster you follow out of curiosity please? Im always looking to add someone decent to my betting portfolio. Thanks

        Mike 9 months ago Reply


        • Hi Mike, I use the elite service from sp2a speculate2accumulate, costs ball park £1 a race and covers Saturday + big festivals one race per day with a very detailed write up. I have also started having their daily tips, they give 3 a day, level staking and report to sp, the aim is to make 30 points per day to 10 point stakes and therefore 900 points a month and that equates to 50% return on investment, they average around 35% from paper trading, that costs a bit more approx. £40 a month but both good value. Have also started with northernmonkeypunter, came with glowing reputation from secret betting club, looks fine so far but only had that one for 2 months, been with sp2a for 3 years.

          Ian 9 months ago Reply


  • Martin, I am indebted to you again. Thank you for sharing
    Barry

    Barry 9 months ago Reply


  • You are definitely not fired !!

    Barry 9 months ago Reply


  • Martin, your a top man…not many people I know would share stuff like this…..It restores my faith in humanity.

    many thanks.

    Tony 9 months ago Reply


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