Members Report: 20/04/16 (COMPLETE)

VIDEO…

Below is a ‘shorter’ (only 16 minutes this time!!) video of me using my HorseRaceBase account to add in one of the trainer micro systems from the guide. One of you emailed asking me to record a demo, as a new HRB user. So, I hope this helps. (comes with the obligatory ‘Good Morning, when in fact I am speaking to you in the afternoon!)

Any questions etc, then fire away…

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Tuesday wasn’t very good. Some thoughts, for what they are worth, below. Disappointing…

Kilbree Kid – 2 points win – 3rd 13/2>4/1 (how disappointing- I was confident all the way round there until just before the last. No excuses whatsoever,just not good enough on the day. Perfect trip round,didn’t miss a fence,just didn’t pick up when asked. Winner did it well, pestered for some of the lead – a very inconsistent profile,like most from that yard – an all or nothing horse on recent starts and I thought he may want it softer. He was unexposed so entitled to still have improvement in him,albeit didn’t expect him to beat them like that. He received a great front running ride also. Bugger) 

Present View – 1 point win – UP 7/1>9/2>9/1 (well clearly my ‘good ground’ jumping eyes are still rather rusty. He traveled well enough for a long way and maybe did run out of gas or he just isn’t as good, nowhere near it, as he once was. The drift was a danger beforehand. Well done to Loose Chips, I can’t say I saw that coming – he does like Kempton – I didn’t think he would be able to dictate quite so easily,I thought he was better with cut and I expected something with more up their sleeve/zip in closing stages to grab him. Wrong on many different levels there. The break has clearly done him good – he ticked most of the ‘profile’ boxes. Clearly none of the younger ones were any good and I judged them poorly. All credit to the horse and connections, what a game little beast. Having followed him a couple of times this season, that hurts a little bit!)

The beginning of the jumps season took a while to heat up,then we burst into life in the middle, and now we are tapering slowly again towards the end! Maybe the mind is all ‘3m handicap chased out’ (two winners I didn’t give much of a chance too,rather than being perplexed at the losers) and it is time for some flat action…Its that time of the year when more unknowns creep in- ground/freshness of horses being two- that changing of the seasons period and I am clearly finding it tough, in general. 

UPDATE…a sad postscript to the day…It looks as though Present View suffered potential career ending injuries but the good news is that he has been saved – albeit it sounds touch and go over the next few days, having ruptured tendons. That would explain why he seemed to stop rather abruptly – hopefully he makes a full recovery and brings joy to someone, hacking around fields somewhere. That rather puts any losing bets into perspective.

Golden Chieftain suffered a fatal heart-attack last weekend. What sad news. When you follow the chasers year in year out you feel like you get to know them, which makes it more painful when one passes on. He didn’t deserve that. What a brave horse who deserved, like they all do, a long and happy retirement. On the plus side, he had a long and enjoyable racing career and that should be celebrated. Still, it is a great shame he won’t be living out the rest of his days relaxing in a somerset field somewhere. 

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TIPS 

NO TIPS

I have looked at the No Duffer race and while I don’t think I want to be taking him on, I am not sure I want to be wading in at 5/2 – I do lack confidence with horses near that end of the market. If he turns up in the same form as last time he should take all the stopping. Although you will find stronger C2s I think, it was still a deeper race than this. BUT, he is facing a handful of inform rivals who could have more to come. You would not fall off your seat if one of Topper Thornton, Jennys Surprise or even Silver Tassie were to go close here. If Presented was on a going day he may even threaten at some stage (albeit more surprised if he won) Brennan may try and dominate from the front here, and he may not see another rival. But, at the odds, I am happy to leave and there is nothing that I could confidently take him on with. One of those. You may disagree and have my ‘Any Currency Syndrome’- which was clearly misdiagnosed yesterday!! 🙂 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

April Trainer

7.05 Taunt: Unison (16/1<) 

Jumps Handicappers

2.40 Perth: Gold Chain (12/1<) DNQ

8.05 Taunt: Double Accord (12/1<)

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Using my ‘Perth’ Stats, I think they through up the following…

YOU CAN DOWNLOAD A PDF OF THE NOTES HERE>>>

 

Race 1: 2.10

NTD Micro : Wicked Willy – UP

Race 2: 2.40 

McCain Micro (10/1<) : What Does The Fox Say -UP

Other trainer stats (small samples): Lochnell (Duncan) + High Fair (Forster) 

Race 3: 3.15

Elliot Micro: Fagan – UP

Race 4: 3.50 

George Micro: No Duffer – WON 5/2

Race 5: 4.25

NTD Micro: Frontier Vic – WON 7/2

McCain (10/1<) : Rolling Thunder – UP

Other Stats: Forster (small sample, 2/2!): See The Legend

Race 6: 5.00

Other Stats: All George Handicap Chasers: Florida Calling- 2nd 

Race 7: 5.30 

None. 

I think that is it and I haven’t missed anything, stats wise. 

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016

As I said I won’t post the trainer micro SYSTEM bets that regularly (the main ones at end of each profile,where they exist) but there are four possibles today I believe…

3.30 Catt: I Am Not Here (16/1<)- 2nd 

3.40 Epsom: Elbereth (any odds) – UP

4.35 Catt: Gerry The Glover (16/1<) – UP

4.50 Epsom: Byres Road (7/1<) – UP

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That is all for today. Good luck with your bets, as always. 

POST COMPLETE

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Perth:- A 32% SR for horses that ran at the Aintree festival……and a 67% SR for those 1 or 2 in the betting.
    All Lucinda Russell’s winners 5/5 came in hurdles. O from 28 in chases.
    Only 2 winners bigger than 20/1…..no biggies.

    Tony 19/04/16 7:41 PM Reply


  • Josh, I always thought Gordon Elliot targeted Perth but I haven’t checked it out properly, this year though messrs Mullins and Nicholls will be sending hordes of runners I believe so that could affect some of the trainer stats?

    Steve Veasey 19/04/16 8:30 PM Reply


    • I agree with you Steve…..which makes me a bit wary.

      Tony 19/04/16 8:33 PM Reply


    • Yep he targets all their fixtures generally and very rare to find value now…they are put in at odds they should be/shorter than they should. Picking them is harder.

      Mullins. Yep we saw that at Aintree. First time he has sent the big guns really. He has never been good at throwing handicap darts at non Festival meetings really…(on these shores)and I am not sure if he is as good a handicap placer as Nicholls. But that is just opinion. We shall see how it pans out. His and Nicholls runners may make market for others.

      Josh Wright 19/04/16 8:40 PM Reply


      • Josh, I think Mullins is probably one of those trainers that the Handicapper takes no chances with – its supposed to be objective but we all know it isn’t otherwise you wouldn’t see some horses that finish third beaten comfortably have their marks revised up a few pounds while others stay the same or even go down a bit. They seem to take it personally when something with no form for ages pops up and wins so they absolutely hammer them which is so unprofessional….

        Steve Veasey 19/04/16 8:53 PM Reply


        • Yep agree…also, Patrick Mullins has said something interesting before in the sense that handicapping is very much an afterthought with the yard – they want graded animals, that is their aim, and if a horse is only a handicapper then that is a negative. Clearly he is one of the best trainers in the land along with Nicholl’s – but sometimes you do get a feeling that he throws a few handicapping darts and hopes one of them sticks (ie his handicap chase record over here, in general,is poor)- but then, we are in a new era – as this is the first season he has sent over so many good ones to Aintree, and it looks like targeting other meetings, outside of Cheltenham, as well. Interesting if he carries this over from the start of next next season.

          Josh Wright 20/04/16 7:56 AM Reply


          • On the positive side of Mullins coming to Perth, the odds on the rest of the field will likely improve in most races. So take him on in the right spot.

            Martin Colwell 20/04/16 9:19 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, may I make an addendum to your excellent Perth download. All 7 winners for D McCain were in the top 4 in the betting, but like you I’ve gone for What Does The Fox Say at 10’s….cheers.

    Tony 19/04/16 8:31 PM Reply


    • You can make as many addendums as you wish! Thanks for those useful Aintree LTO stats,omitted to look at that! I prefer odds to position in market,just because they can cha ge late,as odds can of course. All useful info to throw into the pot. Cheers.

      Josh Wright 19/04/16 8:35 PM Reply


  • I just read your Perth stats and I was right about Elliott but it looks like his runners are so overbet it isn’t worth really following blindly..thanks for doing the grunt work!

    Steve Veasey 19/04/16 8:40 PM Reply


  • Jamie Snowden’s said on Twitter that PV is “back safely at home but racing career looks very much in jeopardy”

    Paul 19/04/16 8:47 PM Reply


  • 7.05 Frozen Over 25/1 (hopefully still with racebets by morning)

    A few more talented than this one in the race but an e/w chance

    Two previous wins came at this time of year after a winter lay-off on good ground, one over CD i think

    Ali 19/04/16 11:49 PM Reply


  • Golden Chieftain suffered a heart attack after being pulled up Josh. Sad news, a really nice horse, a favourite of mine.

    Rob 20/04/16 2:13 AM Reply


    • Thanks Rob, I did see a nice tweet in memory from Brendon Powell jnr – yes you and me both – that is one of the joys of jumps racing- getting to follow horses over a prolonged period – but then also one of the downsides also- makes the pain worse. Poor old boy.

      Josh Wright 20/04/16 7:29 AM Reply


  • Queenies birthday week – M Bell sends one to Catt where nice strike rate 4pm

    Andy Silvers 20/04/16 8:53 AM Reply


  • One I quite like each way that I thinks fit the Perth stats is Daytripper in the 2.40. Lucinda Russell H H, albeit for mares, at 18/1. Also Bescot Springs in the 4.25 at 16/1.

    Martin Colwell 20/04/16 11:33 AM Reply


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