NEW POST ALERT:
I have yet to watch the Cheltenham race as I was on a train but when you check the Sporting Life updated results and your horse isn’t listed with a finishing position, but is instead in that box at the bottom titled ‘also ran’, you know it didn’t go well! Happy enough with that bet, well as content as you can be with a losing pick. It happens, a lot. The highs to the lows, what a game. (as was the football for that matter!!)
Perfect Candidate deserves some more focus, in terms of my process – a few weeks back I probably backed one too many horses whose recent form was atrocious – and the horses ran as such. They were pokes at decent odds. But they ran shockers. I may, temporarily, have gone the other way, twice this week. Firstly with Barton Gift at Exeter – too much focus on his last two runs – he hates heavy and you can literally put a line through those and ignore them. If I had done that he should have been much higher up in my thinking. And then with Perfect Candidate. I paid far too much attention to his last run, in a Festival handicap. Any horse is allowed to run badly in one of those, given how competitive they are, the occasion etc and having made an early blunder, been impeded etc, he was never really in it. If you ignored that run, then what had he done wrong? Superb course form, he had been mixing it in much better races than this – the horse he beat LTO came out and won since etc etc. In that ‘after-timing’ / hindsight context, what a fine price he was! And, he was a price which allowed you to overlook that last run. I didn’t. Slap on the wrist. So, not annoyed I didn’t back (well, I am little bit) him but as I have done a couple of times this year, I didn’t get myself into a place where I would – I really should learn my lesson!
We move on…
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES FLAT: 2016
In case you missed it I have released my new stats pack for the flat.
I am going to record a short video, hopefully today, to explain a bit more, my thinking behind it and why it will help you.
I received two differing emails after launch yesterday.
A chap called John got in touch and said, and I quote ”£37 is too dear – you robbing turd”
Pat sent me an email, and I quote again, ” Hi Josh, your TTP is well up to your usual standard and decently priced too. O’meara just landed a 12/1 winner at Ripon, albeit it was one of three. Great stuff! Many thanks” (sounds like has paid for his guide already! 🙂 )
A funny old world, eh? The guide is worth every penny of what I am charging for it, and if you can’t trust my word by now then I suggest you find another blog, unsubscribe from my email list, and be on your merry way.
Thankfully there are more Pats out there than Johns 🙂
NONE – no 3m+ chases to get stuck into. Attention will be turning to the Scottish National very soon.
3.20 Font: Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) WON 7/1>13/2
3.55 Font: Acajou Des Bieffes (12/1<) NR
A King Flat (16/1<) : 7.50 Bath – Forgiving Glance
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
I have just used my new guide to go through the card at Bath – it has taken me just over 5 minutes and there are a couple of interest, in terms of the stats…
6.50 – Asfaar – 10/3 – Meehan is 6/11,7 places with all maiden runners here in last three seasons. Market may guide, as it can do with maiden runners.
7.20 – Stockhill Diva – 7/2 – you cant go too wrong backing all of Powell’s handicappers here, if recent history is a guide – 8/28,14 places with those runners. Dizzey Heights also goes for Kittow who is 2/5 with handicappers with no run in last 90 days – he is 2/1 though and clearly those stats are not the strongest. A 1-2 maybe. Food for thought.
That is all for today.
Donations…Join The Club…
If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.
So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016, which will be released at some point this week.
Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also.
I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be.
So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …
You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)
(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)
PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you.
ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…
Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂