Members Report: 14/04/16 (COMPLETE)

 

NOTE: I am off to London for the afternoon/evening so there will be no post until Friday morning. I am aware I need to do some Scottish National trends which will be my first job Friday, after trying to find any bets etc. 

 

 

Any Currency – well it doesn’t get any better than that really, bar much bigger odds and tipping a correct forecast maybe – but in terms of race analysis, getting decent odds and getting the staking right- I would take that every time 🙂 Winners like that don’t come easy – I looked at that one race from 7am until about 8.45am – then spent 25 minutes writing it up. That’s what you donate for, and to be blunt – without hard graft it is a pretty difficult game to make a profit from. (I don’t say that for you to get the violins out – I was like a pig in muck this morning,but races like that take time) 

I was just pleased to get a 2 pointer right for once. Credit to the horse and connections. He is clearly still loving life. Hopefully many of you got 8/1 – it was around for nearly an hour I think and with BetBright for some time after – plenty of 7s also. That takes us from 0 to +15 points for the month in one fell swoop – the joys of playing at decent odds. (and +140 odd I think for 2016 – or £1400 to £10 bets – not bad for just over 3 months ‘work’!

Anyway, we move on…

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016…

My new guide is pretty much complete and will be released around midday on Thursday, all being well. I know you are all excited 🙂 There will be the usual sales page etc but hopefully the freebies over the last few weeks have given you a firm idea of what to expect. 

It is the best stats research I have produced and is going to help you find plenty of decent priced winners, I have no doubt about that. With this guide at your disposal you will become more clued up than the majority of other punters – whether you analyse racing from home or take the relevant page with you to the racetrack. It is easy to use and is sure to help you win more money this summer. 

Anyway, that will be released tomorrow as I said. It will cost £37 (+vat) and in my mind is worth every penny. 

Monthly Donations Club Members will get a near 50% discount at £20 (+vat) so if you want to take advantage of that ridiculous offer you can use the links below. 🙂 I will email members with a separate discount link. I can’t think of a better way to spend some of your Any Currency winnings 🙂 

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HORSES…

I’m getting there, hold on…

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TIPS

3.35 Cheltenham

Benvolio – 1 point win – 5/1 – (general) 

I won’t repeat War and Peace this time. Not quite…

Benvolio…is seemingly in the best form he has been for some time, is still lightly raced,likes the ground and stays longer than the mother in law. He got tapped for toe at times at Newbury but managed to keep in touch before powering away up the run in. If Amigo does what he did LTO – and there are a few pace pushers in here – this won’t be run at a crawl. I would like to think he is going to relish this hill and every yard of the trip. This is only his 14th chase start and as such I haven’t paid too much/any attention to that rise in his mark. This same mark would not have stopped him LTO and in actual weight terms he only has 1lb more on his back. Maybe it wasn’t the strongest of races as it turned out (getting to point in season where plenty of disappointing types on show) but he could do no more. He was second in a Welsh National and has run well enough at Listed level. He is a C2 chaser in my eyes.  Nicholls is in decent enough form and, if still in the form of 12 days ago, he wont be far away. I was tempted to go 1.5 points, even 2 – but his jumping can be sticky at times, it is a quick turnaround and it is his first run at the track. 

Of the rest..Forgotten Gold clearly has a chance. Maybe these two will fight it out. (the ‘fun bet’ forecast klaxon sounding?) He is best fresh and seems to go with more enthusiasm after a break so has that to prove. That race also fell into his lap last time out, a ferocious pace collapsing and a bit like Benvolio’s race it wasnt the strongest in the end. He could do no more than that though. He is better RH and has to prove he truly stays this trip on a track like this. Benvolio also has more improvement in him, potentially. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went in again but my gut/head said Benvolio may have too much. Maybe it isn’t too far from a coin toss though – let’s hope I have called correctly. 

I can’t really have anything else. Warden Hill ‘goes well fresh’ and has some ok Novice form. He is in the ‘could be anything’ category so deserves respect – but his wins were at lesser tracks in C4s, in small fields. This will be a new experience and on that basis, at the odds, I am happy for him to prove me wrong. This is a more lengthy break than he is used to also. I am happy to take on the rest for one reason or another. Pipes have started to go off the boil again (2/32 last 14 days) and I suspect Amigo was tuned up to the minute LTO – it can’t have been a prep for this!! In any case he has enough to prove and is a bit short.  

PACE…I don’t think it will be lacking in here – while no consistent front runners it should be run at a decent pace and the selection can lead if he wants to – he stays further – and usually races prominently. No complaints on that front. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

April Trainer 

4.45 Chelt: Kilmurvy (16/1<)

Jumps Handicappers 

4.10 Chelt: City Supreme (12/1<)

Other 

H Fry Mares (10/1< guide): 5.20 Chelt: Meribel Millie 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing much today. Those trainers highlighted in the ‘Craven’ post have been doing ok – well Gosden has been in superb form and had a decent priced winner yesterday at 5/1. Saeed Bin Suroor cam to the party with a 7/1 maiden winner to improve his impressive stats – he seems to have a few nice ones today, so they will be interesting to watch! I hope some of you may have been on a few of those.  

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POST COMPLETE (08.40)

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which will be released at some point this week. 

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

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(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, a brilliant analysis of a to my eye was a difficult race. I did manage to get8s.
    Top man.

    James 13/04/16 9:28 PM Reply


    • Hi James, cheers – I do like a challenge! That was far easier than the Grand National and came as some light relief in truth! On the face of it it looked a puzzle but once you realised it was stuffed full of horses with dodgy profiles and those who had hard/poor seasons, it became a bit easier. Glad you were on.

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 7:42 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh once again well done today … Can’t offer any in depth reading of races like you do which I really enjoy reading and trying to understand your reasoning etc.. Still trying lol.. Anyway think I mentioned to you before I have a small stake in a few horses with MPR… One running tomorrow .. Lexington times in the 5.05 at Newmarket all I can say is he is fit and has won there before and a nice each way price tomorrow… Would love to say Hannon and MPR tell you when there horses are due to romp in but hey ho we can but hope.. Will post when my 4 are due to run and if I hear anything positive I will share but will suggest people look at the races and judge for themselves if they wish to back but of course I will be as I have too !!! Good luck tomorrow and look forward to the tip … Will be at headquarters willing my lad on . Cheers Kevin

    Kevin 13/04/16 9:36 PM Reply


    • Thanks Kevin, good luck with your runner and thanks for sharing. I/we look forward to future updates!

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 9:21 AM Reply


  • Kilmurvy, the system selection in the 4.45: have you ever seen such a consistent form record?! The James Milner of racing.

    Gotta be an each-way play. After break of 60+ days: 33233

    Ali 13/04/16 10:07 PM Reply


  • Something I was thinking about when watching your video preview the other day, would it be quicker and easier for you just to do a wee video like that for every tip? If, like today, you’re spending 20-25 minutes writing up the full information anyway maybe that would make sense for you too. You could spend 5-10 minutes on a stats heavy, commentary light text post then another 10-15 minutes recording a video of your own thoughts.

    Just another thought on the race yesterday and the fact that it was a 365 feature race. How I played it was to bet the full £50 with 365, then laid £20 of it off on the exchange to bring my actual stake down to £30 which is 2 points for me. That meant that if the horse won, I’d have a £50 risk free bet with 365. Not everyone’s cup of tea I’m sure, but something I always do if I get a tip for a race which has some kind of promotion with one of the online bookie.

    Neil 13/04/16 10:26 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Neil and an interesting take on the offer,makes perfect sense. I may have to do that sometime. When in doubt,go with Gosden is my Craven meeting motto and hadn’t backed any of his shorties this week but did use the free bet on him,given his form yesterday.

      Yep,videos like that are the way forward,esp 10 min ones etc. Just timing and technology. Can take ages to render which may be speed of my lap top. Need to upgrade! But,certainly an option, mixing it up more. I never plan to write that much but sometimes I can’t help it and I know some enjoy reading their way through!

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 10:31 PM Reply


      • I like your written analysis Josh. I find I go back to it a couple of times as I mull over my own thoughts of the race. Not that the videos are not good, they are excellent. Just that I probably absorb the content better written down, and I would not have to trawl through a video to find the salient points.

        Richard Sutton 14/04/16 8:38 AM Reply


  • Cheers Josh. Katkeau just gone NR, so took 5.98 on Betfair before the BOG bookies amend the book.
    Paul

    Paul 14/04/16 7:23 AM Reply


    • Yep, annoying. Will keep an eye on that but looks like being ‘declared’ at 9/2, which is around plenty as I write.

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 7:45 AM Reply


  • do you reckon Benvolio will end up running in the scottish grand national at the weekend?

    Ali 14/04/16 8:09 AM Reply


    • highly unlikely if he runs here today.

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 8:25 AM Reply


      • yeah, i did think that, and he is officially running today now. Just found it weird that Nicholls hasn’t chose Benv as one of his Scottish National representatives, given he’ll definitely make the cut and stays so well

        Ali 14/04/16 8:31 AM Reply


  • Thanks Josh.

    Having assessed your thinking, I have done one point Benvolio, half a point Forgotten Gold plus two BOG straight forecasts with B365 which were 24/1 so therefore 12/1 effectively.

    Richard Sutton 14/04/16 8:29 AM Reply


    • Good luck – yep take your earlier point about the written reasoning – I want engaged readers who know why they are backing a horse that I tip, hence why I write the detail I do – and I like it when I am challenged/helps your own thinking – the whole process makes me much more analytical and leads to more profits over time. They won’t be going anywhere!

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 8:57 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Sporting life NAP the TIP.
    I have had a tip sent to me for LONG HOUSE HALL plus put Meribel Millie in a loose change Trixie.
    Kilmurvy & City Supreme in a ew double. All loose change stuff.

    Well Done for Any Currency.
    .

    Mike Dennis 14/04/16 8:35 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    I am on yours as always but am I mad in thinking Seventh Sky is a massive price? Since his win he has been racing in top end Class 2s or Class 1s and is actually 2/2 in handicap class 2 races worth £20k. Back down to only 3lbs above his winning mark. Likes to be up with the pace. Given he appeared to be going away on his last win so I think the trip will be ok. Trainer is arguably in the best form he has been all season after having a torrid time without a winner from 5th of Jan until 18th of March. His only run at Cheltenham wasn’t terrible in what has turned out to be a pretty hot race. Yes he has had a long hard season and may have had enough now but at the price surely deserves a squeak.

    Nick Mazur 14/04/16 8:46 AM Reply


    • hi Nick, yep I can see where you are coming from there and I cant put you off at those odds – I just though that a) there were a couple in here in much better form, and I cant see all those near top of market bombing out/underperforming b) there is the stamina doubt, although I wouldn’t say he def wont stay , C) the long hard season d) the trainer form here – went with his one yesterday – it is a concern e) his recent form is a concern, I know a higher level but he has been stuffed and no obvious reason why he should be so poor.

      However, despite all of that, one could argue that is why he is 25/1 – and on paper, on past form, there is enough there to make a case! I did not make that case today!

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 8:54 AM Reply


  • Lets hope Benvolio does the business again today Josh, I have a view that Forgotten Gold might just be happier right handed.

    I will be having a small tickle on the Sprint at Ripon looking for the soft ground spring form of Barkston Ash + Plazon for a nice net profit.

    fingers crossed.

    Ian 14/04/16 8:50 AM Reply


    • Good luck Ian, I am so busy with my report etc that I have’t even looked at that card! May have a peak at the sprint later – start to warm the ‘sprinting’ eyes up!

      Josh Wright 14/04/16 8:55 AM Reply


    • Ian, I agree with the thinking there and your selections. Have a look also at Fast Shot. Last April was on a mark of 96 and today off 79. Spent 2015 mainly in class 2’s and today in a class 4. Loves the mud and has twice been placed off of a break, has run well during April and May and has two course and distance wins.

      Richard Sutton 14/04/16 9:08 AM Reply


  • Tom George hasn’t a great record at cheltenham but considering his recent form would be no surprise if he changed that today,however i will be having a bet on Lovely Job for Feargal o brien with paddy taking the ride.He was beaten by Askamore Darcy,a real dour horse last time in the last strides,also might have more improvement to come

    gerry 14/04/16 8:53 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, good call yesterday. I was at Newmarket and had forgotten I backed it. Looked at the big screen and saw AC coming to the 2nd last clear. Lovely.

    I have been away and unable to catch up on Cheltenham results and bets. Is there a dowlnoad of tip results somewhere so I can get my books straight?

    Hugh

    Hugh 14/04/16 9:31 AM Reply


  • Memory Cloth in the 3.10 at Ripon is worth keeping an eye on even if today is not the day. Has six career wins including one in March and four in April, plus a number of placed runs jn the Spring. Acts very well on testing ground, suited by the trip and has a win and a third placing at Ripon. He has also won off of a break in the past. Is now looking nicely handicapped and has changed stables to Micky Hammond since the Autumn so a change of scene could well spark him up.

    Richard Sutton 14/04/16 9:52 AM Reply


  • hello josh stuck to my word and bought a copy of flatstats,but paid on my phone and silly me downliaded to phone but wont open could you please send a link for download to my e mail thanks muchael murphy .

    michael murphy 14/04/16 1:13 PM Reply


  • michael with a u.

    michael murphy 14/04/16 1:14 PM Reply


  • Won
    Perfect Candidate i had him,becouse he had longest break
    together with Forgotten Gold becouse of Brennan

    Pab 14/04/16 2:51 PM Reply


  • I haven’t seen the race but going by the racing post commentary I think general conclusion is he doesn’t quite stay the 3m2f. Certainly worth following next season off his current mark although probably expecting too much for them to drop him for this.

    Nick Mazur 14/04/16 2:53 PM Reply


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