Members Report: 13/04/16 (COMPLETE)

A decent enough run from Copper Birch – no excuses or issues there. I took a semi-educated chance that he would stay – and I don’t think he did. He traveled well until they began to head home and the petrol appeared to run out. Barton Gift won the race well and he is a funny horse to get right – he was 0/6, 1 p in C3s before this, but as noted it was a weak class 3. He had proven stamina. I was more put off by his most recent form, but on reflection maybe I was too harsh – while he has decent form on soft, it would appear he hates heavy – now 0/8, 0 places – I still thought those runs were a bit too poor (maybe I should have just put a line through them) and that he may get in a pace battle and ruin his chance – I should never doubt Nico really – he is turning into a wonderful jockey. He also had a change of headgear again and that may be an interesting ‘way in’ for him in the future. Fingers crossed I tip him to victory at some point in the next couple of seasons – at this level he is a pretty decent stayer at his best. 

Anyway, we move on. Unlike on Monday, no feeling of deflation. These long distance chases are tricky -weighing up those with proven stamina against those who you think may improve for the trip. We get to test ourselves in a similar test at Cheltenham…

***

TIPS

2.25 Cheltenham

Any Currency – 2 points win – 8/1 (BetB/BV/PP/Lad)  WON 8/1>6/1 

Morney Wing – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) * UP (never lay up,ground/not good enough)

*prices as of 08.30

Maybe a long, hard, mentally draining (but most enjoyable and profitable to date) jumps season has finally caught up with me – there have been signs in recent days – especially that period where I was backing horses with more letters than numbers in their form figures! 🙂 Is this the pinnacle – betting 2 points on a 13 year old.

There is method to my madness – despite the number of runners, on all known profile evidence and form, this isn’t a very strong race and many in here have had long and disappointing seasons. Hobbs throws three darts – suggesting it may just be a nice trip out for the stable/owners – an end of year ‘bring you horse’ party – and who could blame them -another fine season. I will get onto his shortly.

Any Currency…what a fine old servant. I know he is getting on but he is lightly raced in recent years, he comes alive on decent ground and rarely runs a bad race on it. He is a prominent racer, sound jumper and a grinder. He also tries his heart out – he wants to win. Oh, and he will stay. He may get outpaced a couple from home (although by what I have no idea) but will rally up this hill. I have an image of Coleman sending him to the front, slowly stoking him up, and winning this in splendid isolation. In handicapping terms he is very well treated.

I know it was a cross country a couple of starts back, but it was a handicap chase still…in November he raced of OR 152 – 3 runs later and he comes here off OR130!!?? He was beaten under 2l off that mark. Has there ever been such a drop,so quickly, for a horse seemingly in the form of his life? And, look at the horses in those races – In November he had Jossies Orders in front of him, and Bless The Wings just behind (who ran a stormer in the Irish National) Now, his last run was clearly the target. But, last year after another brave effort he was put away straight away. Connections must surely be thinking that given his age, they may as well have some fun with him. Also, The Cross Country is no longer a handicap, so I don’t think it matters what he does in these races now – and they may have one last hurrah next year. Those types of races get some stick – but they went a decent enough pace LTO to my eye and it is a Festival race- he had the right horses around him. I am struggling to see how he wont run his race here, in near ideal conditions. A couple of furlongs further would help but I don’t see much in here getting away from him. He is 3/6,4 places in handicap chases OR130 or below. It is just whether he is primed for this, or it is a potter around before a summer break. I suspect it is the former, and if so, we should go very close here. (there is my bullish confidence again, hopefully well placed this time!) The other thing is the headgear – Coleman said he enjoyed having the hood removed LTO, it sparked him up more and it was the best he has traveled. The same again please!

Morney Wing – well given I have a 13yo warrior onside I wanted to go with a younger more progressive horse and this one fits the bill. To my eye he looks like a dour grinder and this test will be interesting. The ground is an unknown unknown, rather than a known unknown! – ie, he hasn’t had enough/any runs on good/soft ground for me to know if he handles it or not. He ran on good or better a few times in Ireland, and while non-handicaps,didn’t disgrace himself. He doesn’t look to have a pounding action. On paper/breeding stamina is also a big question – he may not stay – but to my eye he does look like he will just gallop and may be a The Young Master type who on breeding shouldn’t be a 3m+ chaser. Charlie Mann is in the best form he has been in for some time- they are all generally running well. He is 0/17, 1 place at the track – given the nature of racing here I can’t think he has sent many with chances- and his charge is 14s. He looks interesting and has form at this level. He is only going one way and this test may reveal more as to ideal conditions in the future. 

Of the rest…well, where to start? I looked at the Mulholland horse – another unexposed one. But he has only won a weak C4 chase, has stamina to prove (as does Morney) and is out of form. If he was strong in the market I would be concerned as he is unexposed. The rain came the last day – that wasn’t good ground he raced on- which may be the excuse, but even then it was a laboured effort given he was 6/1 and clearly fancied to run better. He is usually held up – not ideal around here – and this big field is a test. I may have that wrong, he could out-run his odds- albeit he does appear weak in the market. Azure Fly has had 4 goes here, never placing- a character,stamina/big field form to prove, trainer 2/95 here. Bertie Boru- hold up type and surely his jumping won’t hold up here, also appears not to stay these extreme trips. He has threatened a few times this year but has then let me down. Johnson not on. Woodford County – long, hard season, poor LTO where following rain there were no excuses- laboured. And his level of form not strong – does stay well though, could be up there if bouncing back. Jumping suspect sometimes also.

Thomas Wild- a ‘summer jumping’ type for me, never too much strength to his form, but Johnson picks him. 0/9,3p 12+ runners and he is being asked to win from a career high mark aged 11. Tough ask. Financial Climate – gets his ground but that is about it. He was stuffed in this race last year I believe and I don’t think he stays – he also detests fields with more than 7/8 runners in them…now 0/14,4 places 8+. He does get a headgear change though. Godmejudge – has the back form to win this. He stays at his best but looks completely out of sorts. I can see why some may have  a stab at the resurrection – but I can’t find excuses for recent runs and it is a leap of faith. The odds could justify that – not for me. Robin Dickin’s is 0/4,0 p at the track, 0/5,0 p very undulating tracks,0/6,1 p LH and has an almighty big stamina question mark next to his name. I think he has proved he won’t stay (but then I kind of thought that about Eastlake in the Topham, mistakenly!) Rebeccas Choice has lost his way a bit. A decent run wouldn’t be a total shock given past form over CD but he is 0/6, 0 places in the last 2 years – when winning here, or anywhere in more recent times he has come into the race in much better form. It may be a ground thing though, and this good may see him in better light. Enough questions though – a place wouldn’t be a shock. 

Mysteree – the other lurker, unexposed one who could be dangerous. But, he has only won small, weak chases and this is a completely new test for a trainer who doesn’t do that well here. He plugged on,rather than stayed on LTO, and does now have some questions to answer – especially here over this very undulating track. At the odds – 7/1 – I was happy to overlook – his jumping is also sticky at times (which it is allowed to be given his inexperience) Arguably Morney Wing has better chase form on paper to date, both with the same unexposed profile and open to improvement over this trip. He is twice the price. Hi Vic – just no. I can’t back him on current form/profile. Big bounce back/step up required. Ruapehu needs to step up on C4 efforts and was rather poor LTO. Good ground is his thing but also has a break to overcome. This big field is also a new test and his jumping is dodgy at times…as is Hollow Blue Sky who was disappointing for me last time. He is now 0/13, 2 places beyond 2m6f and while I thought he may scramble home LTO, I really cant see him lasting out over this trip, at this track. His jumping may not hold up for that long either. Also 0/10,4 p when ‘good’ is anywhere in the going. 

Canas Toi is obviously interesting but this is a big step up on anything he has done to date and he has a break to overcome. He unseated on his last visit here, in a large field. Enough to prove albeit he is going the right way – 5/1 was short enough also. I couldn’t take that price with any confidence in a race of this nature. I think that just leaves Finish The Story – who has been disappointing and must go down as a doubtful stayer now, and esp over this trip at this track. He is also better with cut although maybe Good is fine. I can’t have him though.

So, I think that is the lot covered. There are a few who would not shock me if they ran better – Rebeccas Choice,What’s Left chief among them,followed by the Russell horse. I can’t really be having any of the others on what they have done in their careers and this season to date. Happy to be left head-scratching. (Godsmejudge wouldn’t be a fall of my seat result either,on very old form- maybe that Scottish National,at his age then,has ruined him)

PACE – well there are no out and out front runners – plenty of pace pushers so it will be interesting who takes it up. Coleman may be able to dictate if he wants – which would be perfect – esp as he can then try and stretch them and use all of his stamina. Morney Wing also likes to be up there, as does Mysteree. I see no excuses on the pace front. We should get a good spin for most of the way, until the bottom of the hill at least…

Good Luck

***

That is all for tips

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Other 

James Fanshawe Kempton: 6.50 Kempton – He’s My Boy (any odds) 

This angle has been dormant for the last couple of months. The original post is around somewhere and I will try and dig it out. It is simple. Fanshawe’s handicappers here that ran on the Flat Turf LTO. The figures in the last 5 seasons are now: 103 bets / 34 wins / 62 places / 33% sr / +120 SP / AE 1.8.  2015 finished on 8/22, +16 points profit. 

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

4.55 Bev: Jintshi (any odds) – A micro qualifier for the Beverley system from my new report. I believe I have shared this one before the other week. 

5.20 Cheltenham: Authorized Too -9/1 – Williams is 2/6,3 places with his handicap hurdle debutants in last year and with an impressive speed figure (on ones I use,via Geegeez) he looks interesting – as does the jockey booking. He could have plenty more to come, or not be very good! Nicholls also does well with the same type here, which makes his Simon Squirrel interesting, albeit he is weak in the market (then so were the two NHF horses at Wincanton the other day who doubled in price and won well!) 

That is all for today. 

***

POST COMPLETE (09.40)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

46 Comments

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  • ah josh i had barton picked out last night on the strength of it been nicos only ride at the meeting but put myself off it due to its current form. he had a winner for hendo a week or so ago which again was his only ride. needs watching this lad i did manage to find tertium star today and from ryans comments it will be something to look out for out for in the big back end sprints. at this stage im looking at highland and royale knight for the scottish national ive already done the fanshawe animal on the strength of that little system the stats of which are awesome

    ANTHONY ERIC TOLHURST 12/04/16 8:36 PM Reply


    • Always annoying isnt it?! Sounds like you were a bit closer to nabbing him than me – I did overlook those last two runs too quickly – Yep the ‘one ride’ angle isn’t something I have looked at in much depth but will ad to the list! – combined with distance traveled may throw up a few interesting ones. Well done on the Ryan winner – one thing about flat is a lot more big priced ones go in, in decent, but not massive sized fields. Yet to cast eyes to Scottish National but will be soon. Yep Fanshawe angle was up all of 2015 I think, or most of it, and helped add to the pot – so far have been able to back them blind as looks a clear tactic of his – esp as flat races can be more competitive than AW, etc. Hopefully same again this year.

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 9:24 AM Reply


  • A well written piece Josh, it deserves a good result.

    Must admit, I am very confused by the handicapping. AC ran off 132 in a handicap at Aintree in October. Whacked up to 152 next time, also in a handicap. Then runs twice in non h’caps (nominal mark of 157) and wins..and is now dropped as you say to 130. I have never seen anything like it before. I have run the race through Patternform to see how well handicapped he is historically and recently, and he is very well in. The only other contender on that basis is Godsmejudge given today’s conditions and that comes from it’s ‘third placing’ in what I call the ‘Whitbread’ two years ago.

    Richard Sutton 13/04/16 9:24 AM Reply


    • thanks Richard…I spent a good while looking at race,not quite as long writing it up!! Agree, very very strange – and there were decent yardsticks around him in the cross country handicaps, and last time out. Seems to be running as well as he ever has and is certainly in best form of any runner here. Happy to take big chance at 8s – he wont find many weaker C3s I don’t think, number of runners deceptive, plenty in here with a lot to prove. Godsmejudge – well a return to his best and he would be ‘well in’, but he needs to show more for me. Really lost his way- cant think many improve horses from Alan King. Hope to see him bounce back at some point, just not today!

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 9:34 AM Reply


    • That has something to do with the Cross Country Courses being counted different nowadays I think so now a horse may have a hurdle, chase & CC rating, I’ll check but pretty sure & that’s whay he’s clear on all the figures because like my machine (the RP website, it won’t be considered.

      My notes say as much about AC & it could be why he he is being unconsidered by a lot of tipsters:

      “C2 CC WW prm gd p trnr4R 96dys 30g Chl Mar16 – 20lb bttr XC Nov15 – xom jt as c C2 WW prom gd p trnr4R 28dys 31gd Chl Dec14 – +11 Imp’d? McCoy H* 30s Catt Jan13 – xom PB 142+ 157dys 28gss Winc Oct12 -“

      Andy Silvers 13/04/16 9:37 AM Reply


      • Yep – but he has hardly ran over regulation fences in recent years so hard to judge – 3m1f around Aintree would have been too sharp, and in C2s. You do have to go a long way back to find regualtion chase form in ideal conditions – ie a stamina test on decent ground – indeed he has hardly ran on those – and those CX races before the last one were still ‘handicap chases’ at end of the day, with some decent horses in – Bless The Wings has franked the form and he chased him home twice. And that last race was not a crawl and he also had decent horses around him. The drop may be something to do with his age also.

        Think I need a Key for your notes!! 🙂

        Josh Wright 13/04/16 9:43 AM Reply


  • I knew a chap once who said his kitchen manager down at Butlins would not consider a bet until a horse was at least 5lb clear on two sets of figures. He used to get the Timeform weekly Blackbooks & the Racing Post (may’ve been Sporting Life) delivered to his office everyday. (& if you ever thought the food wasn’t much cop…

    Anyway, oh yeh, Any Currency

    5lb Clear top cdg
    10lb clear top rpr according to Weekender (revised to 4lb on website, possibly because we all know he’s better on Cross Country course?)
    5lb clear top on most recent topspeed
    8lb clear top on topspeed from season

    Only 2lb top on my figures? So can’t argue much with that selection, maybe Rebeccas Choice cdg3 possible EW

    I know what ur saying though, sometimes horses are only running to get their OR reduced for next season, Hobbs has a much better record in the 3.00

    Surely Mite Bite too short & Henderson 0-1-8 in race, I gone for the 9lb clear top cdg stable 2nd string Bear’s Affair

    Andy Silvers 13/04/16 9:32 AM Reply


  • Richard Newland has Vosne Romanee entered in the 5.20,I wouldn’t think this is his target 0/29 with hurdlers at cheltenham,most likely a sharpener for something later after 316 day layoff

    gerry 13/04/16 9:41 AM Reply


    • Newland is however 5/7 last two weeks.

      Richard Sutton 13/04/16 10:21 AM Reply


      • You may be right re a pipe opener but the trainer is very hot at present and 10/1 looks big enough.

        Martin Colwell 13/04/16 12:34 PM Reply


  • Fundamentally disagree, Josh.
    Godsmejudge, down from 148 to 124 and now is a 0-130 must be a contender.
    Financial Climate was only ‘stuffed’ because he had had three tough races (2 wins). All this season’s races were in the mud and he’s back on the good stuff. This is easier and the visor is added.
    Hollow Blue Sky, is most attractively weighted and claimer ridden; needs this trip now and ran really nicely back in Jan.
    I hope I’ve found the winner with those three strikes!!!
    I’ve an interest in Premier Bond 150 and Divine Spear 520, both of whom will run well, but I think you’re right with Authorised Two in the last, as I anticipate better now he’s on faster going.

    Chris 13/04/16 9:41 AM Reply


    • We had this disagreement last time Chris – Godsmejudge – my approach argues that his rating means sod all because he is out of form – a drop in rating/class is NOT (in my opinion) the reason why he would return to form. Now he WILL return to form at some point and at that stage be very well in – you may think that is today – it may well be today- but I am struggling to see it. I suppose they could have been buggering around with him to lower his mark, and today is the day, but I’m not sure.

      Financial Climate more plausible although still stamina doubts and he is better in a small field – but, it isn’t a must. This is an afterthought after that Warwick race though when he was a NR, maybe due to ground. Take your point about reason for poor show in this last year, that could be the reason. Still enough to prove in a race of this nature for me.

      Everything I have seen to date would indicate HBS is a non stayer – I can’t have him and his jumping can let him down – I am yet to see evidence that he needs this trip now – he should have been a lot closer the last day.

      Good Luck, but not too much 🙂 Differing opinions are what makes this game great – hopefully one of us is cheering!

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 9:47 AM Reply


      • It will be interesting – if I deduct the 20lb that AC is supposed to better at over the CC course then Godsmejudge is 8lb clear top on my figs – today’s added confusion to proceedings lol

        Andy Silvers 13/04/16 12:28 PM Reply


      • I wonder why they continue with Godsmejudge, as he looks too slow to pull the milk cart! It is not an accident that he has slipped down the weights. He can win as he has four legs (I think) the same as the other runners but I will buy everyone a drink if he does.
        Any Currency is hard to weigh up in my opinion and will need every yard of this race I think if he is in a going state of mind.

        Martin Colwell 13/04/16 12:39 PM Reply


      • Very well done, Josh 🙂

        Chris 13/04/16 4:14 PM Reply


    • Divine Spear 520, i ve been reading trainer blog
      his last race was to long for DS
      Price was higher but RP tipster backed him,not pricless

      Pab 13/04/16 11:22 AM Reply


  • Trainer quote: “”Over regulation fences Any Currency wouldn’t be as good as Champion Court, but he loves these ones.

    “I’m expecting them both to run well.

    “Depending on how Champion Court is he may as well go down this route because, while it’s great he’s been winning again, he’s back up to over 150 and he can’t win races off that mark.

    “Any Currency might be getting on a bit, but he is still showing all his enthusiasm.”

    http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/preview/702088/glenfarclas-cross-country-chase-at-cheltenham-martin-keighley-pair-take-centre-stage

    Andy Silvers 13/04/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • My night selections are the same

    Pab 13/04/16 11:17 AM Reply


  • From the RP: William Muir’s runners have form figures of 5111221112 in the last fortnight. He saddles Equally Fast (5.40 Newmarket) and King Of Spin (6.20 Kempton).

    William Haggas’s last six runners at Beverley have form figures of 122111 for a level-stake profit of £11.08. He runs Coherent (4.55).

    Andy Silvers 13/04/16 12:31 PM Reply


    • Yep Haggas 2/2 with handicap debutants at track also – but have left him as already on the Johnston horse at 9/2 – both not the strongest in market mind – albeit it looks trappy. Muir can do no wrong at moment so interesting how his go. GL

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 12:56 PM Reply


  • MOUSE Morris
    Rogue Angel is being prepared for a possible tilt at Saturday’s Scottish national at Ayr

    Pab 13/04/16 12:58 PM Reply


  • Booooommmmmm get in my son

    Kevin 13/04/16 1:34 PM Reply


  • Brilliant Josh.

    Don’t forget anyone who backed the horse with Bet 365 will now have a risk-free bet in the 4.30.

    Neil 13/04/16 1:35 PM Reply


    • Cheers Neil..ah yes, that would be me! I had better get looking. Who do we fancy?

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 1:37 PM Reply


      • I’m rushing out of the house so have plumped for Custom Cut for no reason other than it’s on the Geegeez daily Shortlist, albeit only with 9 points.

        Neil 13/04/16 1:39 PM Reply


        • I really liked CC this morning then found a note in my diary not to lump on O’Meara too much in april, he seems to hit his stride around may day and in fairness he then carries it through the summer……time will tell this year but experience tells me ryan and fahey are stronger starters..

          Ian 13/04/16 2:43 PM Reply


  • Brilliant call Josh – well done and thanks for making it a two pointer!

    Richard Sutton 13/04/16 1:35 PM Reply


  • Good one Josh got it absolutely spot on.

    Jack 13/04/16 1:36 PM Reply


  • Nice read, Josh. Cheers,
    Paul

    Paul 13/04/16 1:36 PM Reply


  • well done you sir top stuff paddy

    paddy kearney 13/04/16 1:38 PM Reply


  • Boom won
    Batavir Piple on hurdle

    4:10 CHELTENHAM

    Pab 13/04/16 1:38 PM Reply


    • That’s bound to hose up today since I have finally given up on it after losing countless amount of money on it (I think me and Josh both).

      Nick Mazur 13/04/16 2:27 PM Reply


  • Go on Any Currency Lovely stuff again Josh

    Tom 13/04/16 1:40 PM Reply


  • Thanks again Josh

    Barry 13/04/16 1:49 PM Reply


  • Cheers gents. That rather went to plan! Nice to get a ‘2 pointer’ right for once! Never in doubt to my eyes, was travelling oh so well early on there, and was in comfort zone on front end. Brilliant!

    Josh Wright 13/04/16 2:02 PM Reply


  • Well done josh, great pick pal.

    michae 13/04/16 2:08 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh great selection I am just gutted I missed the 8-1 as I checked the blog late but good profits.

    Tim 13/04/16 2:23 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh the 3M+ chase king !

    Andy 13/04/16 2:24 PM Reply


  • Well done again Josh. My pin ended up with Thomas Wild so will take the e/w profits.

    Nick Mazur 13/04/16 2:28 PM Reply


  • excellent tipping josh and the more you looked at the handicap mark differential from lto and its record round Cheltenham on good ground the better it became….can’t be long now b4 you switch to sprint handicaps, cant wait….

    Ian 13/04/16 2:41 PM Reply


    • Yea sometimes you look at a horse, and a race, the set up etc, and you just get ‘the feeling’ – I don’t have that very often but I did with him! Yep looking forward to the big sprints – want the ground to settle and also most horses to have had a run before going too mad – as those two factors add a level of complexity which really does hurt the head!! Great thing about the flat is there are more big priced opportunities – and you can do well with EW profits if you can get 25/1+ horses hitting the board. Confident I will find one or two 40/1+ jobs that go in also – that will be fun!!

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 2:45 PM Reply


  • top analysis josh,you called that one spot on,still life in some 13yos

    gerry 13/04/16 2:50 PM Reply


    • Yea, was bouncing LTO – removal of hood seemed to spark him into life and can only thing they were running him as he was still bouncing at home. Perfect race for him that – good run by the second all things considered albeit I doubt that race will work out well at all. Winner will hopefully be back at Cross X race next Festival and should give it a good go.

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 2:53 PM Reply


  • Your powers grow every day! I had it on its own and in an each way double with the Newland runner in the 5.20! Close to a big pot! I will sort an extra donation this week. Godsmejudge is still running by the way.

    Martin Colwell 13/04/16 4:32 PM Reply


    • well done, ah yes that was close to a big one- must have been excited as he loomed up before the last. Unlucky. Yep, think he has gone at the game – maybe they will find an opportunity somewhere but it will take decent odds and a big leap of faith for me to touch him at the moment.

      Josh Wright 13/04/16 6:48 PM Reply


  • Excellent thanks Josh – donation on its way

    Steve 13/04/16 8:04 PM Reply


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