The Craven Meeting: Some Pointers Of Note

The Craven Meeting

This meeting is not down as ‘a festival’ in HorseRaceBase and instead I have just looked at all those races run at this track in April, which I believe just covers this meeting from what I can see.

In the last 3 seasons there have been 48 races, run over what was a 2 day meeting. I believe it either reverts, or becomes, a 3 day meeting this year, with a few more races added. (those of you with a firmer grip on racing history than I, may correct that!) 

So…

499 runners, 48 wins , 132 placed horses.

***

General Stats (all races) 

ODDs

It has been pretty tough to find bigger priced winners here. Those going off at 16/1 or bigger SP are (in the last three seasons)…

197 bets / 3 wins / 23 places / -128 SP

You deserve a big pat on the back if you find one of those!

Using that 14/1 odds cap for a moment, a quick look to see which trainers have done best…

TRAINERS (of interest)

Those with more than 2 winners.

  • Richard Hannon (jnr): 18 bets / 5 wins / 9 places / 28% sr / +16 SP / +18 BFSP / AE 1.44
  • J H M Gosden: 20 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 20% sr / -10 SP / -10 BFSP / AE 0.79
  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 12 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 33% sr / +11 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 1.83

Those with 2 winners include: Appleby/K Ryan/ R A Fahey/H Palmer/Jane Chapple-Hyam/A  Balding.

Three trainers to have had winners over 14/1 SP…

  • Richard Hannon (jnr): 5 bets / 1win / 3 places / 20% sr / +21 SP / +28 BFSP / AE 4.35 (looks like ALL of Hannon’s runners here are worthy of close scrutiny)
  • Charles Hills: 13 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 8% sr / +4 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 2.33
  • B J Meehan: 3 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 33% sr / +23 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 7.69

MICRO?

Well it would appear you can’t go wrong with backing all of Hannon’s runners, at all odds…(only had licence last two seasons…)

23 bets / 6 wins / 12 places / 26% sr / +37 SP / +46 BFSP / AE 1.62

Those running over 8f or shorter : 17 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / 35% sr / +43 SP / +52 BFSP / AE 1.99

(0/6,3 places over further than this so far. Not stats to dismiss those runners out of hand though!)

***

There have been 6 Group3/Listed races here in last three years…

Those trainers with more than one winner…

  • R Hannon (jnr): 11 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 36% sr / +14 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.86
  • Jane Chapple-Hyam: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +7 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 4.44
  • K Ryan: 7 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 29% sr / +2 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 2.41
  • R Fahey: 5 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 40% sr / +3 SP / +3.5 SP / AE 2.38

**

Other points of interest (all winners)

  • 43/48 winners had not run in previous 90 days. (1+ run: 5/98,25 places)
  • TRACK Last Time Out (of interest)
    • Kempton: 5/38, 9 places
    • Ascot: 3/13,6 places
    • Newmarket (july): 3/8, 3 places
    • Nottingham: 3/9, 6 places
    • Goodwood: 2/6, 2 places
    • Newbury: 0/22, 1 place
    • Lingfield: 0/33, 7 places
  • 6th or worse LTO: 2/78, 15 places

***

Handicap Angle?

I believe there have only been 3yo only handicaps run here at the previous three meetings. There is a handicap for horses aged 4yo+ on Tuesday, and I am assuming this is a new race??…

Anyway, for the 3yo only handicaps (have been 3 per year)  the following are good starting points for shortlisting…

  • 11/1 or shorter (12/1+ = 0/34,4 places)
  • 0 Runs in last 90 Days
  • 0 Wins in Handicaps
  • Top 5 LTO

This covers 8 of last 9 winners: 29 bets / 8 wins / 15 places / 28% sr / +17 SP / +21 BFSP / AE 1.41

An average of just over 3 qualifiers per handicap. That should help narrow down the field. 

***

Right, that was a welcome distraction from my ‘Trainer Track Profiles’ research but I must get back to it! 

Good Luck if using those stats etc. I WON’T be using them to highlight potential runners, qualifiers etc on the blog. I will leave that to you. 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I think the last time this was a 3 day meeting was in 2006.

    John Gorton 11/04/16 1:57 PM Reply


    • Cheers John, they appear to have stuffed it with a few more races also – hopefully not diluting the quality. Seems early in the season for a 3 day meeting like this!

      Josh Wright 11/04/16 2:04 PM Reply


    • John I presume your not the ex flat jockey from the 1960s,whoe used to ride for Lord Roseberry.BoB

      BoB 11/04/16 2:29 PM Reply


  • No i’m not. Couldn’t ride a rocking horse. I remember him well though. South African if I remember rightly.

    John Gorton 11/04/16 2:37 PM Reply


  • Hi all …I have been doing my own figures converting running times to miles per hour making adjustments for ground, lengths beaten and course though not for class of races. I have my own standard miles per hour average over all distances to make a comparison so that I have a universal standard by which to compare how fast a horse travels above my standard times for different distances. Applying this to the 2.10 at Newmarket for those horses that have had a run I get the following:

    Swiss Range ran 37.80 mph LTO Rowley course 7f = above average speed for distnce
    Dufay ran 37.62 mph LTO 7f = above average speed for distnace
    Golden Stunner ran 37.13 mph 9th Sept @ Carlisle.7f = above average speed for distance
    My Favourite Thing ran 35.77 mph 8th August Nmkt July course 7f
    Performer 36.93 mph LTO over 8f = above average speed for distance
    Dora’s Field 7f Rowley course Sept 35.97 mph…notice this horse has run well below my average and the price reflects this.

    My standard average mph over 7f is 36.98 mph
    My standard average mph over 8f is 36.74 mph.

    It is virtually impossible to determine what standard the unraced horses are but hopefully the above will give everyone some idea of what the horses are capable of. Combined with your excellent information Josh, everyone may be able to find an angle into the first race given that the fav is bound to be short. Gd lck everyone cheers John

    John 11/04/16 9:54 PM Reply


    • Safe to say Swiss Range was a fair bit quicker than that lot! Not my kind of price, or my kind of race, but did that well. Hope you may have had a bit on! nice drift as well.

      Josh Wright 12/04/16 1:22 PM Reply


Post A Reply