Members Report: 09/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Ah, a disappointing day for the tips, no point in beating around that particular ‘chair/foinavon etc shaped bush’. 🙂 Hopefully you got 1/4 odd on Henri Parry Morgan, who was the only highlight for official tips. I believe that leaves us on +7.5 points for the meeting, which is ok. Hopefully I can build on that tomorrow. There were a couple of winners in ‘the notes’ and Ballyoptic (9/1) got me out of what was becoming a rather large ‘at the races punting hole’. (trainer micro systems found two winners today at 11/4 and 9/1) I won’t dwell anymore. The main tips didn’t run as expected – albeit As De Mee ran well for a long way, before seeming to empty out – which was surprising. I didn’t have Eastlake down as a stayer – I will go back and have a good stare at his profile again – as well at that of Party Rock – which I am still staring at – especially his record when rated OR 130 or below in handicaps. You would have had to overlook a lot with him, but at 33s that was doable, especially given his record in this very race. One that got away. And yes, that is easy to say after. Oh, and the trainer was in red hot form and he was a prominent racer. Hardly anything came from the back again today – everything from near the front, or leading – including, again, over the National Fences. 

Anyway. That day is now done. Wiped from my mind. Tomorrow…

 

***

TIPS

4.20 Aintree

Al Co – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/SJ/Lad/WH) 3rd 

Roc Dapsis – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP

Little Jon – ½ point win – 28/1 (Bet365/BV/PP) UP

I have previewed this for my Daily Punt Column and they will be sending that out between 10 and 11am I suspect.

***

5.15 The Grand National 

Silviniaco Conti – 1 point win – PU

The Druids Nephew – 1 point win – PU

Goonyella – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) 5th 

Holywell – 1/2 point win – 18/1 (Bet365/AH) UP/PU

Boston Bob – 1/2 point win – 40/1 (Bet365/SJ) UP/PU

***

4 points total. 

Important – Bet365 have a very good offer for this, read the Ts and Cs and bet with them if you can! Cash Back for half stake up to £125 I believe. Using them I have backed the first three of those above to 1pt EW. (Bet365 have already refunded me with cash. MUST be an existing Bet365 customer) 

Well I could stare at this race for ever and still not find the winner. Blimey it looks tough. I have used some stats as a guide – as you would expect. I also had some ‘3m+ handicap chase eyes on’ but that didn’t make it much easier! The stats I used… 3+ runs this season / Aged 8-11 / Ran in last 60 days / Won over 25f or further / 6+ career wins / 1+ handicap chase win / Ran C1 or 2 LTO / 10-23 chase runs / 19+ career runs / 6 or more Places (incs wins) in chases. 

I allowed a horse to fail one of those stats, as some of the tips do. I think that left a shortlist of: All the tips + Unioniste and The Romford Pele. I don’t think those two will be good enough and I don’t like the way they jump. With the latter he has jumping issues and is usually held up right out the back. It isn’t impossible that either runs into a place albeit I would be surprised if either won – but then again, it is that type of race. Maybe I have just left the winner un-tipped! (am now going to have to throw change at them) Some horses will also respond well to these fences and may jump better than they have every done. 

Silviniaco Conti – It is all about whether he stays I think. He has the class, we know that. He loves a flat track – well it is essential. He jumps for fun. He races prominently and may lead. No problems with the ground. It is just about stamina, and it is an unknown, but I had to take that chance. His sire, Dom Alco, has sired the winner of this race. I do have doubts about stamina – not getting the Gold Cup trip – but it could be that is more track related. And around here, we should get a great spin for at least 25f – then it is in the lap of the gods. 

The Druips Nephew – He was clearly going to go close last year and I see no reason why he wont go well again here. The ground may now be on the soft side but he has winning form on soft. Good would have been more ideal though. His mistake last year was unlucky, he jumped the fence well, just came down steep and slipped. There was still a long way to go but he looks sure to give it another good go. On my main stats profile (as detailed in post) and stats – him and Many Clouds are the two perfect fits. This has been the target all season and hopefully at one point he will look like the winner! Again, stamina is an unknown but up to 3m or so he should be thereabouts – with all the usual caveats about luck in running etc. 

Goonyella – well we know he stays all day and he has ran over these fences a couple of times – maybe getting a ‘sighter’ in The Becher. He has been ridden more prominently recently and they had better persist with those tactics! Out of all of these he is guaranteed to stay and will have welcomed the rain. If he completes I would like to think he will be thereabouts. Again, this has clearly been the aim for some time I suspect and he ran well LTO. He is a dour stayer and let’s just hope he doesn’t get too far back. At the odds I had to have a go. 

Holywell – he would have a chance if staying and taking to the fences. We know he has the class and he likes this time of year. He is usually a sound jumper, even though he is small. Again he would have liked better ground. He will race prominently and we should get a good spin for some of the way. 

Boston Bob – is clearly a poke – well every horse is in here I suppose. He fist most of the boxes in the profile and he could cause a surprise. He could get too far back though and is usually held up, but you never know! 

Of the rest…well I will only mention the great Many Clouds – today he could become a legend and I will be cheering him on to do so. I wouldn’t put anyone off throwing 1/2 a point at him! Sod the odds. I see no reason why he wont go very very close here. I suppose I should mention Saint Are – I dont really see a reason why he should overturn the form – Many Clouds is arguably better than last year, as this chap may be. The rain wont have helped his chance though, but if he repeats last year he clearly wont be far away. He could well win. 

I am yet to pick the winner of this is 8 years following racing, the closest being a nose second. Other than that, not too much to cheer at all! This is one of, if not the, most difficult chase I have looked at all year. A right puzzle. 

That will do. Good Luck. 

***

NO MORE TIPS today. I have learnt my lesson in the handicap hurdles, race 1 looks far too difficult! 

***

DAY 2 NOTES 

Not much to say here. I have no strong views of much of interest to say on the other races. There are some shorties and I would like to see the class horses in the card hack up, for the spectacle. In race 1 – well Arpege D’Alene and Rock the Kasbah are interesting for my ‘6yo LTO Chelt’ angle – which in fairness hasn’t worked yet this week! I have no thoughts on the final race of the day. 

Good Luck

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

(If you are new to the blog, please click and read the ‘Members Club’ tab in the top right hand corner. Explains all) 

April Trainer (16/1<)

4.40 Chep: Kilmurvy NR

Jumps Handicaps

5.45 Chep: Red Devil Star (20/1<) UP

6.05 Chep: Calin Du Briais (12/1<) UP

Other 

Alan King Flat (16/1<) : 3.10 Ling – Top Tug WON 9/1>7/1

***

POST COMPLETE

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

51 Comments

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  • Josh,

    I was always told that you need to look for a good 2.5 mile chaser who has completed the National fences. To my mind I would put forward Shutthefrontdoor, Soll & Saint Are as three who could fit this bill. I know there are others who fall into the same category but they can all race on soft / heavy going although I have reservations on Saint Are if it were heavy. I live some 30 miles from Liverpool & we are supposed to have heavy rain during the night but tomorrow is supposed to be cloudy with a few showers during part of the afternoon with little wind.

    Mr T 08/04/16 9:37 PM Reply


    • I think that the last 2.5 mile chaser to win was trained by Fred Rimmell in about 1975. You need a dour stayer to win the race nowadays.

      bernard 08/04/16 10:16 PM Reply


      • Team Spirit was the horses name and won at 28/1. and before you ask it wasn’t the last time I backed the winner. I fancy Goonyella to run a big race this year ground conditions likely to suit, bucketing down here in Liverpool right now. Good luck whatever you back.

        Edward 08/04/16 10:41 PM Reply


        • The name is Gaye Trip ridden by I think Pat Taffe.BoB

          BoB 09/04/16 5:53 AM Reply


          • Thanks Bob, Team Spirit was probably a winner in the previous decade.

            Edward 09/04/16 6:50 AM Reply


  • Evening Josh,

    Away from Aintree do you recon our old friend Loughhalder will have it soft enough at his beloved Chepstow?

    Personally on the National I am on Goonyella, The Romford Pele and Rule the World with the first one probably the safest of the three picks given the conditions.

    Nick Mazur 08/04/16 10:17 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, thanks for pointer, havent even looked away from Aintree yet, albeit he must be in my tracker somewhere. He is becoming disappointing now and am running out of excuses, but will have a look at odds/conditions etc

      The rain is coming for Goonyella – they just have to race him prominently. Anything held up here has no chance on what we have seen to date.

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 10:49 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Top Tug expected to come on for run. Still expected to do himself justice though

    Bill 08/04/16 10:31 PM Reply


  • 4.20 Aintree Little Jon. Record on LH flat tracks over fences reads 111P. Last win came off 143. Races off 137 tomorrow when taking Ryan Hatches 3lb into consideration. 28/1 looks big to me. Worth small each way maybe Josh?

    jon 08/04/16 10:40 PM Reply


    • yep have just spent a good while on that race and it is wide open – I want something with a price – looks like my pins will be on Al Co, Little John and possibly George/Brennan horse – 2 points across those three is some way! Still head scratching – NTDs record in race not great, 0/12,2p, but this horse has ability – and I dont think he likes Cheltenham – also, it is his first try over a trip he is arguably bred for – that slower pace, going over 3m opposed to 2m4, may help with jumping rhythm – 28s certainly worth a stab – not sure about EW – probably win or fall!

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 10:47 PM Reply


    • 0/9 over 2m4.5f to 2m5 and not ran over further so surely won’t stay the trip.

      Nick Mazur 08/04/16 10:51 PM Reply


      • Little John? On those bare stats, correct. But, most of those runs were around Cheltenham where he doesnt really jump – well he jumps worse there – also in some decent races. One run over that trip away from there was after a break. On paper he is meant to stay and I would like to see him try it on a flat track before passing complete judgement. And, as always, price is a factor. 28s to find out, maybe worth a nibble. Yet to fully decide!

        Josh Wright 08/04/16 11:06 PM Reply


  • #3 – Grand National Horse Ratings

    Comes from a guy called the Mathematician at http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/ a lot of work has gone into this.
    If it is raining this top-rated could be interesting?

    Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

    The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

    I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

    A few total outsiders I have also ducked.

    Goonyella 53.00
    Rocky Creek 52.50
    Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)
    Gallant Oscar 52.00
    Holywell 51.00
    Unioniste 51.00
    Soll 50.5
    Just A Par 50.50
    The Romford Pele 50.5
    Many Clouds 50.00
    The Druids Nephew 49.50
    Aachen 49.00
    Black Thunder 48.50
    Triolo D’Alene 48.00
    Le Reve 48.00
    O’Faolains Boy 47.50
    Saint Are 47.00
    Kruzhlinin 47.00
    Ballynagour 47.00
    Double Ross 47.00
    First Lieutenant 46.5
    Boston Bob 46.5
    On His Own 45.50
    Ballycasey 45.50
    Silviniaco Conti 45.00
    Buywise 45.00
    Sir Des Champs 45.00
    Vics Canvas 45.00
    Rule The World 44.50
    Gilgamboa 43.50
    The Last Samuri 42.5
    Morning Assembly 41.50
    Shutthefrontdoor 38.00
    Wonderful Charm 37.00
    Ucello Conti 36.50

    Andy Silvers 08/04/16 10:47 PM Reply


  • Assuming the rain has arrived I think you have to look at proven stayers and that means GOONYELLA and SOLL, and of course ROCKY CREEK.

    The pace angle is interesting as you say nothing has come from the back, where usually all of those would be on the first circuit, I do have to wonder if the “pace” front runner angle dissipates though at the 3 and a half mile pole when most go in to deeply uncharted territory.

    I cant have Many Clouds as good as he is, the mark is only 6 higher BUT in terms of weight he has a stone more to lug round, he is not a big horse…my other thoughts other than the top 3 would be JUST A PAR who has won over 3 miles 5 furlongs and won a P2P on heavy and Shutthefrontdoor who has a similar profile to JAP…

    I will have a small dabble on those 5 named against the field. I also hold an Ante Post slip on Holywell.

    Ian 09/04/16 5:54 AM Reply


    • Many Clouds was carrying 11-9 last year so he only has one pound more this year…..

      Steve Veasey 09/04/16 8:05 AM Reply


      • I must have been looking at the wrong race – sorry!

        Ian 09/04/16 8:30 AM Reply


        • Druids Nephew has to carry 9lb more, Many Clouds just 1lb.
          Right race wrong horse?

          Dave 09/04/16 10:08 AM Reply


  • I like roc d apsis in the 4.20 T/J in good form good speed ratings thought it ran well LTO first time over 3miles holywell in national for me decent weight likes it this time of year with a bit of luck and a positive ride could be there or abouts

    antony church 09/04/16 6:04 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,knocked some ratings up for Don Poli and he actually ran to the exact same figure on Thursday as it did at Cheltenham,which surprised me a little but thats how it is :-).
    The Last Samurai wins the National and Dell Arca in the 610 looks(to my eyes anyway) a typical Pipe`Plot`job.
    Very well handicapped now with one of the best conditionals on,been running over too far and blinkers back on plus money started coming for it last night.

    Gaz 09/04/16 6:21 AM Reply


  • what is the difference between tips and micro systems

    dave 09/04/16 8:30 AM Reply


  • Josh, hope you don’t mind me correcting you mate but that 365 offer actually gives you your cash back within 2 hours of placing the bet (been getting it back far sooner). You don’t even have to wait until the race has ran. And it’s hard cash not freebets. Personally I think it’s the best offer in horse racing.

    Nick Mazur 09/04/16 8:45 AM Reply


    • Always welcome factual corrections! 🙂 I need to go to ‘offer school!’. Cheers. Yep they have refunded me already.

      Josh Wright 09/04/16 8:51 AM Reply


      • If you ever have a spare hour or two give me a shout. Wish I had access to all of them still.

        Nick Mazur 09/04/16 9:21 AM Reply


      • NB. The Bet 365 offer ends at 12 noon.

        Tony Brannan 09/04/16 11:05 AM Reply


  • Yep suburb offer from bet365 make sure you bet before 12 offer expires after that

    Rob 09/04/16 8:53 AM Reply


  • Silviano wont stay. I am not have by a bet but I don’t think that you can avoid last years one and two. Happy to be proved wrong as always. Like minelladaddy at the price and al boots last race.

    Martin Colwell 09/04/16 9:05 AM Reply


    • Now that’s what I don’t like about the Racing Post (although there are pros & cons – ruddy annoying at times (& I should say, ‘the most’ I could give u a list if ever there was time))

      Was going to say a serious negative for Silviniaco Conti, according to the Racing Post Weekender, SC is the RP Ratings top but as usual between that going to post & getting to the website on the day, SOMEBODY JUGGLES THE FIGURES!!

      So now Holywell has been upped to top. The RP Ratings top-rated have not won once in the last 10 years so now SC is sitting pretty just shy of top where majority winners come from according to rpr’s.

      I was on the Timeform site last night some interesting stuff – SC 3/4 @ Aintree but

      The Last Samurai is 5lb with a ‘p top-rated according to them & they make a point that Kim Bailey has been profitable to follow with his chasers last 5 years when he only fields one at a meet?

      Andy Silvers 09/04/16 10:09 AM Reply


  • Beginning to realise after Party Rock top & Eastlake 2nd top & Highland Lodge back in December, just how effective my little cdg method is at Aintree.

    Throws up two well clear top in the 1.45 in At Fishers Cross & Join The Clan both decent EW prices

    Andy Silvers 09/04/16 11:21 AM Reply


    • I had a good bet on AFC last night – have I chosen the right one?

      Chris 09/04/16 12:23 PM Reply


    • I had silsol very strong horse top weighted
      Gamble on Prince Of Scars 4:20 20/1

      Pab 09/04/16 1:38 PM Reply


      • Just struck again with Maggio & Al Co both placed: [Silly me cashed out again but still well up & a fair few free bets on the National]

        Can someone let me know if they can see this & I will post them more often b4 the races, the copy & paste format doesn’t work too good here! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfnIQf7WIAAgJ-I.jpg:large

        Andy Silvers 09/04/16 3:44 PM Reply


        • I see very well

          Pab 09/04/16 4:00 PM Reply


  • I am trackside and they have given a going stick reading of 4.7 for National course. The ‘time boys’ and folk who know more,plus my own view…suggests that it is HEAVY. If that is the reality, then goodbye Druids N, Holywell…and a few others. Last Samuri,Saint Are from top of head. In theory, suits Goonyella…no better chance ever I doubt, IF it is heavy. Off top of head cant think of other heavy ground merchants…

    Josh Wright 09/04/16 11:58 AM Reply


    • Sir des Champs has strong form on ‘Irish soft’ so my AP bet might be favoured with that and the Nina factor.
      Here’s hoping.

      Chris 09/04/16 12:26 PM Reply


    • PFN says otherwise but just a par won p2p in heavy and has won over 3 m 5f; I also always think Soll is the type to hunt round and then grind on and on if it gets in to a rhythm…goonyella has best “national cv” other than many clouds, won midlands and second in scottish

      Ian 09/04/16 1:55 PM Reply


  • My for GN
    The Last Samuri
    Kruzhlinin good ew 40/1 now
    Holywell
    Goonyella

    Pab 09/04/16 12:40 PM Reply


  • Loughalder jumped for fun and led them a merry dance to win cosily at 16/1

    gerry 09/04/16 2:42 PM Reply


  • Yeah hope you got on Loughhalder Josh.

    Nick Mazur 09/04/16 3:23 PM Reply


    • Cheers for heads up Nick, yep didnt even have time to look at the horse, but threw 1/2 point on when saw price. Would have missed him but for your comment, too consumed with Aintree!

      Josh Wright 09/04/16 7:46 PM Reply


  • Maggio 100/1
    I had Virak

    Pab 09/04/16 3:31 PM Reply


  • cdg top6 for big one – Rocky Creek interesting? 66/1

    Name cdg clr
    Saint Are 10-5 159
    Many Clouds 11-10 158
    Rocky Creek 10-13 142
    Soll 10-11 139
    Shutthefrontdoor 10-11 139
    Kruzhlinin 10-7 136

    Andy Silvers 09/04/16 3:52 PM Reply


    • Superfluous given the ground ?

      An old Nick Mordin system – placed ina lesser National qualifier:

      RP comment: “Rule The World: Has won two Graded hurdle races and although yet to win over fences he was a very good second in the Irish National 12 months ago on the only occasion he´s been given a thorough stamina test; a few of these look better handicapped but a good run is on the cards.”

      Andy Silvers 09/04/16 5:08 PM Reply


  • Rocky Creek is in top three of Proform Rat
    110/1 on Betfair now
    Saint Are very stable in betting now

    Pab 09/04/16 4:04 PM Reply


  • Rule The World 33/1
    The Last Samuri (IRE) 8/1 j
    Vics Canvas (IRE) 100/1
    Gilgamboa (IRE)

    Pab 09/04/16 4:36 PM Reply


  • Rule the World at 50/1 will do very nicely today together with Loughhalder. Goonyella placed too.

    Nick Mazur 09/04/16 4:43 PM Reply


  • 19 year old David Mullins might as well retire now 🙂 Another great tale for the National, a horse that has never won over fences ridden by a teenager for the most eccentric trainer in racing who lost his own son in a tragic accident a year ago….

    Steve Veasey 09/04/16 4:48 PM Reply


  • Gutted Josh ! I backed The Last Samuri in January at 38s after seeing him ( tipped by you ) romp up at Kempton. Thought I had it as he fought off Vics canvas only to see RTW come past . What a game effort . No doubt he’ll have to shoulder much more weight next year and being a small horse that’s probably his chance .

    Ian C 09/04/16 5:30 PM Reply


    • Yep unlucky there Ian, quite simply the rain has cost you, both night before (may have got away with it) but certainly what came during the day – tipped it down. Would be confident that on a firmer surface that was his. Unlucky.

      Josh Wright 09/04/16 7:48 PM Reply


  • Josh your 6 yo cheltenham lto came up trumps in the end made it a winning day for me lol

    kenneth 09/04/16 5:38 PM Reply


    • He certainly did didnt he – was glorious to be roaring him home in splendid isolation!! 16/1 – and given the day I had up to that point, I may have topped up as I was trackside, as you do when behind haha. Glad you backed him. Those micros did ok in general, esp if being more selective given a few who were questionable as to form chance.

      Josh Wright 09/04/16 7:50 PM Reply


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