Members Report: 08/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Well, that was bloody good fun- my best day at the races by some way to date. Profit, plenty to cheer, Cue Card and Annie Power. Brilliant.  I wont reflect too much on Day 1 – But, hopefully many of you backed the tips and may have watched the video/read my ‘notes’. Arzal led all the way for a nice return at 13/2, chased home by my other fancy. Dineur ran a fine race in second at 66/1 to reward my 5ew bet. Clearly, betting wise, the Red Rum handicap chase was the highlight. It really was a day, as it usually is at this track, to be on the speed. A fine ride by Wayne Hutchinson and it was about time I added another 16/1+ job to the pot. I also managed to get the placepot up with one line, albeit it only paid 12/1 – still, a nice enough return for my crisp £5 note. 

Don Poli – received a mighty fine ride and ran his heart out. No complaints there. Hopefully some of you may have backed him with PaddyPower and got your money back as a free bet. Cue Card – well there is not much to say about him – it was superb to cheer him home. What a horse. A deserved win and on that form was clearly going to go close in the Gold Cup. (albeit he tried to take two fences with him here also) I am still too one dimensional when it comes to betting – yet again I didn’t even think about the forecast, as a ‘saver’. Next time!

All in all, a very good day, as good as they come -especially considering my past exploits at this meeting. Oh, and Anthony Honeyball had another handicap hurdle winner at 6/1 – a nice surprise when checking my Bet365 account at around 4pm. 

Thanks for all of your kind comments. There is no better feeling than cheering home a decent priced winner and there will be many more of those in the years ahead. How exciting 🙂 

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Onto today…

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TIPS

1.40 Aintree

Tycoon Prince – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) – UP

Thienval – 1 point EW – 22/1 (SB/BV/PP/Coral) UP

Clondaw Kaempfer 1/2 point EW – 33/1 (general) UP

(4 points total) 

Like most races at this meeting the trends/stats profiles are not as strong as Cheltenham and while they help here to a point, a rather long list is left. Where to start? 

Tycoon Prince – may or may not be a micro system bet for one of my trainer micro angles (12/1 3rd yesterday in the last) 🙂 That caught my eye. As does the fact that this man knows how to plot one up for a handicap, and given this one is here on handicap debut he could have any amount in hand. 8s was fair in that context. He missed Cheltenham and Elliot has won this race before – I would like to think this has been the target. Stamina looks assured on paper albeit he does have it to prove- could well improve for it. Of the really unexposed ones he looks the most interesting. 

Thienval – well this one won this race last year and this could well have been the target for quite some time. He is a flat track bully – ALL of his form coming at Kempton and Aintree which are pretty much the same bar the way round. He hates any undulations. He ran a cracker LTO he came to the bottom of the hill in contention – he just doesn’t like the hill. 6 year olds who are in the top 10 of the handicap at Aintree, that ran at The Festival LTO have a quite remarkable record – hopefully this is another. 22/1 seemed massive for a horse who is only having his 9th hurdle run. He could/should still be open to improvement and he has won carrying 11-11 in a handicap. He has a higher mark than last year when taking account of claims etc (jockey claimed 3lb last year) but as I said we may not have seen the best of him. Ideally he would want the ground a bit better but he has won on soft and I think the flat is most important. He looks sure to travel into this well – then just a question of whether anything in here with more in hand. Top weights have won this race also. IF he runs like he did last year we should be getting an EW return at worse here. Henderson is in great form, all of his usually go well here and this one could add to the pot at what looks a silly price to me. Happy, as always, to take the chance at those odds. 

Clondaw Kaempfer – well he is more of a poke and may drop out – but I have a suspicion we will see more from him here than we have. I think we can ignore his last run given the break and the ground – I suspect this has been the plan. He gets a tongue tie and headgear – which on the flip side makes me think they are not 100% happy. But, he could improve for both. Importantly he has dropped a lot in the handicap and is below the mark when he won this race two seasons ago. Also Hutch is back up for the first time since winning on him in that race – how interesting. In general McCain’s were ill last year, so you can forgive everything really last season, to an extent. IF, much like the one above, this one bounces back to the form of his run in this race, then he is no 33/1 shot. Worth a punt, and I may have another 1/2 on win side at the track, just in case! 

PACE… There isn’t loads of it on paper in this- not packed with out and out front runners. Thienval will track any pace and he is a strong traveler usually. Clondaw raced prominently when winning this and Hutch knows what to do around here, as we saw yesterday – hopefully he rides him more forward. I cant see anything getting loose on the front here on what they have done on recent starts. 

Of the rest?…well Blazer in interesting, but did have a hard race LTO. BUT a repeat of that puts him right there and may be saver material. Ma Du Fou could be anything but has small field experience and this is a different ball game. The break is  a negative for me and I am happy to take him on. Curios Carlos may be worth change for team Bowen – he could be anything on handicap debut – but Bowen is 0/5,0 places with such types at this track. His form isnt exactly that strong either. He may go close though – a plot job and those after a long break do well in this. Nicholls and Pipe are 0/30,5 places combined in this which is off-putting enough for theirs, albeit happy to take them on anyway, without those stats. We shall see, hopefully a good start for us.

 

2.50 Aintree 

Henri Parry Morgan – 1/2 point EW – 16/1 (1/4 odds Bet365) (1/5 odds, general) 2nd 

One of the top two will probably win this but 3rd is up for grabs and there is a small chance both bomb out – and then it could be anyones. Blacklion deserves his chance but has had a long hard season, and had a very hard race LTO. He is tough but it would be a new level to come here and win this for me. In that context 3s is short enough. Pipes – well he has the class and that was very impressive the last day – still annoyed I crossed him off my shortlist! – He would have been tuned up for the minute for that, but then he did seem to do it with some ease. He can race prominently and could take this well – if i was lumping on one of the top two it would probably be him – despite Pipes rather moderate/poor record at this meeting. Native River is more of a boat than Don Poli and I really cant see this track suiting. He would need a burn up I think – and there is not loads of pace on paper in this. Will Ballyalton stay? Big question mark, as well as class. I am struggling to have the bottom three in the market…

So, by a process of elimination, that leaves one. I should probably have had some guts and backed him to 1 point win but I did think I am asking too much for both the front two to fail. (albeit clearly I think they might, I never back a horse just to place) Team Bowen love this place as we know – ‘family Bowen’ like this place as we saw yesterday. This one is improving at some rate here and on his new rating doesn’t have much to find – esp if some underperform. I am concerned that he is usually help up but I don’t think anything will get away on the front (Pipes might I suppose) and that lack of pace may help and put emphasis on tactical speed. He just looks interesting at the prices and I was happy to have a go.

***

4.05 Aintree 

As De Mee – 1 point EW – 16/1 (general,ensure 5 places!) UP

Dare to Endeavour – 1 point EW – 28/1 (5 places, BV/PP/Betway) UP

I am excited about seeing these two around here at the prices. 

As De Mee is clearly a talented beast and while he has yet to win a chase, as I have learnt from hard data – that is actually no reason to be put of a handicap chaser!! This is his first handicap chase and he is smart – he could have any amount up his sleeve. Nicholls has won this race before – 1/40, 5 places – clearly throws a few darts but any trainer form in a race is a positive. His string couldn’t be in better form either. Ground and trip look perfect. Clearly, it is all about how he takes to the fences. He has fallen in the past but then again got around Cheltenham LTO well enough, in a G1. He could well track what could be a ferocious pace and IF he takes to the fences (should have been schooled over them), runs his race, and completes, I am really struggling to see him out of the frame. He also has that 6yo Cheltenham LTO angle on his side. Very excited about this one. I just hope he jumps the first few fine and the race isn’t over before it has begun! 5+6 yos have a very good record in this against the number of runners (4 winners) 

Dare To Endeavour – went into the notebook after his fine run in the Beecher. This has clearly been the plan since. He has  a funny form profile – usually after he has been pulled up he runs a cracker – and has done for two different trainers now. He clearly likes the fences and this could be a slog as they will not be hanging around. This trip has been fine in the past and he clearly has extra stamina if required. I also like the jockey booking. Moloney has  a decent enough placed record in the National and it may not be a bad thing to be patient this time – by patient I don’t mean held up out the back – but being back of the front third/mid division may be ok. You never want to have to make up too much ground here though. At the odds, given his course form, I had to have a go. He will be fresher than some and we should at least get a spin from him. Heavy ground would have been far from ideal LTO, and it was his first run in 99 days, over hurdles. This has been the plan, it must have been. 

I am struggling to then make a compelling case for anything else. Village Vic would have a chance and will try and lead all the way. BUT on strict handicapping terms, boy does he have a lot on his plate. He is 12lbs above his last handicap win, where he carried 10-10 that day. 11-11 today. If he wins this then credit to the horse, but there should be better treated ones in here. He has also had a long hard season. Bishops Road is interesting and clearly has a chance. Those carrying 11-9 or more are 0/34,5 places in this. Those dropping in trip by 4.5f or more since last run are now 0/46, 2 places. He may be worth a saver but is up in the weights and that was a tough enough race LTO, even though on the eye he did it well enough. It was a slog. On form and horse profiles I am struggling to make a case for anything else in here to be honest, Many have proven they dont stay this trip, many have proven that they do not have the class for this race. Pips is 0/13, 0 places in the race – I was interested in La Vaticane but may be a bit too inexperienced, but could go well. Maybe that is the other that caught the eye. Top Cat Henry – maybe his run around here before Xmas was a sighter – or maybe just not good enough. I can’t think he has the class for this – albeit the line of blue on oddschecker catches the eye. Fairy Rath may pick up some place money based on last year’s run – but isnt in the same form and lost by 10l that day. I would think there is something better than him in here again this year. 

You should never be bullish in a race like this. But, if you said to me that these two will run to their best and will jump every fence – then I would say we have the winner 🙂 

***

DAY 2 NOTES 

Race 2 -Hendo has a great record in this and his one may take the beating. Mullin’s hotpot may be too good but this is a much deeper race, albeit they think she could be group class on the Flat – if that is the case, around here, that could be game over for the rest. They are both short enough. For some trackside ‘fun bets’ (£5 in my speak) I may have a nibble at Agrapart and Ball D’Arc. Take that with a pinch of salt! 

Race 4 – Can’t wait to see Vautour in the flesh. He should be a joy to behold. £5 EW on Clarcam 11/1 without the Fav? This horse fits Elliot’s profile of winners here – now he won’t win but can finish 2nd or 3rd if V wins. Albeit, that isnt even going to win that much. For interest. I wouldn’t be betting in race if I was at home on my couch. 

Race 6 – Blimey, no real idea. NTD may get a winner at this meeting, and maybe BallyOptic can be the one to get him off the mark. He is 2/16,4 place in this race. He will carry something of mine.  If Elliot’s wins the opening handicap, then Bellshill would be of interest, given their past form. 

Race 7 – NTD loves this race also – but his may be short enough and he needed every yard up that stiff hill LTO, having been shuffled back. He could win this well again though. Bolving was eye-catching LTO and must be well thought of to be put in this. Jonjo has won this before so Utility is interesting and so is Ben Pauling’s at a price (sent out last years winner). I may try and use my dodgy paddock eye for this one! 

That is all. 

Good Luck. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

April Trainer (16/1<)

1.40 Aintree: Melodic Rendezvous DNQ

Jumps Handicappers

3.15 Newc: Turtle Cask (12/1<) 2nd 17/2

3.50 Newc: Dalby Spook (12/1<) 3rd 

4.25 Newc: King of the Worlds (12/1<) UP

Other 

K Lee Chasers: 4.05 Aintree: Bishops Road (12/1<) Fell

***

 POST COMPLETE

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

44 Comments

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  • free bet from bet365 (thanks to Katachenko!) on the 2.15 tomorrow. Sensible investment in Limini or should I dare to take Limini on?

    Ali 07/04/16 11:33 PM Reply


    • According to Paul Kealy YES says the Henderson horse should be favourite – according to me NO

      “Buveur D’Air 5-2
      (2.15 Aintree)
      The difference in price between Nicky Henderson’s Supreme Novices’ third and Limini is really hard to fathom. For all that Limini is very highly regarded, she beat a mare rated 123 at Cheltenham, while Buveur D’Air was third in a considerably better race. Tomorrow’s ground will be perfect and he should be favourite.

      Paul Kealy.”

      Ah! Me thinks he’s got it wrong, seems to have forgotten here 2nd start where she beat 3x 125’s (she didn’t have to be at her best last time, easy race?)

      My Notes > Limini
      Gr2 Imprsv! Gr1 type 47dys 17g Chl Mar > +20 Imp’d Mar – 7R Gr3 m’s 11l’s WW bt 3x 125+ 2nd h st trnr4R 259dys 18hy Fai Jan16 – xom as h [0.18/lb co4 n c’s] fto as trnr4R 16g Pun May – Gr1 E’d/NR FTO as h Jan15 – Ricci – filly”

      Not hear all the fuss about Willie’s Fillies Apple’s Jade & Annie Power (& Vroom Vroom Mag)? Well this Limini similar mould, tops my figures with her allowance, won in the manner of a future Grade One last time, only had 3 runs & should improve again.

      Henderson great record in race 4-1-12 & could have fielded Altior, would have given him better chance imho

      Andy Silvers 08/04/16 9:43 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, can you explain the ‘pace’ in relation to the numbers in your video.

    Keith 08/04/16 2:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Keith, good question.
      So,in Geegeez Gold horses are given a number from 1 through to 4.

      1 indicates they were held up on that run. 2 – they were mid division. 3- pushing the pace/tracking. 4- Led.

      That gives a quick idea, based on their last 4 runs, of who may be where when the race pans out. The higher the combined figure, the more consistent they are with that pace profile. Ie, if they have 4 4s, you would be confident they will be trying to lead.

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 10:00 AM Reply


  • I have no association with either bookmaker but thought I should mention it given neither is mainstream and I very rarely use either. For any poker players here that have a Pokerstars account, their sports arm Bet Stars are giving money back for 2nd/3rd in the 1:40 as a free bet. Anyone with a 188Bet account they are paying 5 places for the same race.

    Nick Mazur 08/04/16 7:38 AM Reply


  • Well done yesterday Josh. You clearly had a good day. I was on Dineur each way and Don Poli. I was on Dandridge later and thought I had you beat for a while!

    Why do you like Thienval? Someone else spoke to me about it yesterday evening. It has enough weight. I like Sky Khan at a price.

    What about Agrapart at 10/1?

    I see Bishops Road is being backed. I was on last night.

    Martin Colwell 08/04/16 8:33 AM Reply


  • Fun money on Francis of Assissi, like at the festival when he outran his odds.

    Haven’t seen a turn of foot on him but hopefully not as big a factor in this longer trip. Very strong galloper and races up there so will at least keep me entertained!

    Ali 08/04/16 9:02 AM Reply


  • Josh, You clearly think that Henri has a fair chance of being placed. Betfair Sportsbook go 5/2 to be in the three which seems a good price to top up the each way. Also, why not do two small forecasts with B365 to be second to the top two just in case, which are on offer at 21/1 and 31/1.

    Richard Sutton 08/04/16 9:25 AM Reply


    • Thanks Richard – if you could regularly remind me about such betting thoughts that would be great – so one dimensional. Agree, I am about to do those two forecasts £5 on each, as we speak. Good thinking and given what I have said/my thoughts, makes perfect sense!

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 9:52 AM Reply


      • In which case do two price taken £1 s/f’s on As De Mee and Dare To Endeavor as they are 280/1 and 350/1 with B365 and your assessment indicates that their chances are better than those odds.

        Richard Sutton 08/04/16 10:39 AM Reply


        • Richard, I echo Josh’s thanks; I’d backed HPM last night but my mindset makes me forget to think about f/cs, so thanks to you I have followed suit.
          I’ve missed some stonkers over the years’ so a repeated nudge may induce some change?

          Chris 08/04/16 10:45 AM Reply


          • Thanks Chris, that’s good to hear. Betting strategy is the end product of all the hard work we all put in and is not easy to get right. I always think what is Sods Law going to do in this race and try and come up with an idea to either save stake, or profit from it happening. I back so many seconds and always think about doing a forecast with say the fav like yesterday with Cue Card/ Don Poli where I got 7/1 with B365 in the morning. It is worth taking the forecast price with that firm as they pay best odds guaranteed if the CSF is highe,r though best do it at least 10 minutes before the off.

            Richard Sutton 08/04/16 11:59 AM Reply


      • Sorry Josh, Sods Law strikes and the he comes second to the third favourite instead, us having covered the first two fav’s!!

        Richard Sutton 08/04/16 2:19 PM Reply


  • Another small punt on Distime (4.05)

    Fits my trends and likes the track. Might not have class of course

    ali 08/04/16 10:05 AM Reply


  • offs!! Just realised Katachenko was your tip Josh, for some reason I thought it was from a guy on a forum I use??

    What a dreadful day I had! What an expensive doctors appointment it turned out to be, rush rush etc

    But for me the Bowl was a real non-event! Says in the racing post analysis they went a strong pace but time suggests very much otherwise as the slowest chase on card. They obviously didn’t go fast enough to draw any sting out of Cue Card & Don Poli still wont get a decent ‘soft ground speed figure.

    & then I had 5 out of six placed on my Channel 4 Pick 6 going onto a donkey in the last race who came last – if I had listened to you I would have got £250 for my 25p ew acca & wouldn’t have minded laying Cue Card at all lol lol

    Andy Silvers 08/04/16 10:11 AM Reply


    • ohhh ouch!

      To be frank – I couldn’t give a XXXX about analysing the Bowl in any way at all. Some races, and some horses, are just there to enjoy for me. I can’t take that emotion out of the sport. Just a fantastic horse. 🙂 \without stories and animals we can track for years, NH is nothing – and I don’t care if that was the slowest G1 3m chase ever run!

      Hopefully you have a better day today.

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 10:23 AM Reply


      • So do I but I’m glad you’ve picked one Hendo horse – he has had a double the last two Aintree Festival day2’s

        Andy Silvers 08/04/16 10:41 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Had a long look at the 1.40 last night and all the trends keep send me back to Virgilio what do you think?

    Errol 08/04/16 10:24 AM Reply


    • Yep not much I can say to put you off him at all. Certainly team skelton can’t be doing any better. Days rest and PU put me off – in the sense that the break suggests that the PU was down to a problem (rather than not just liking conditions etc) Clearly highly thought of but is 10lb above last win and will need to step foward again. I never put anyone of their own fancy and if you like him, at the odds, you have to have something on! GL (albeit not too much!)

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 10:29 AM Reply


    • Talk about a trainer in form, Jennie Candish has landed this with a 33/1 shot! I was happy with how Sky Kham ran at 25/1 each way to nick a place.

      Martin Colwell 08/04/16 12:52 PM Reply


  • Given my comments re Candlish that might be one that got away

    Nick Mazur 08/04/16 12:51 PM Reply


    • Hard to back a horse that hadn’t won for three years and has been pulled up on its last two starts…..but Party Rock had run well in the same race twice before and was obviously laid out for it!

      Steve Veasey 08/04/16 1:27 PM Reply


    • Tipped as well in more than one place. The pulled up last time always put me off but lesson learned and wont do so in future.

      Martin Colwell 08/04/16 1:46 PM Reply


  • i had Sky Kham place
    Champagne At Tara
    and Starchitect wn
    looks like she is in really great form

    Pab 08/04/16 1:07 PM Reply


  • Just noticed that W.P. Mullins booking jockey Bryan Hughes is significant. Roi Des Francs in 2.50 looks a possibility.

    john 08/04/16 1:41 PM Reply


  • Bryan Cooper I meant 🙂

    john 08/04/16 1:42 PM Reply


    • That is because it is a Gigginstown horse. Blaklion sets the standard here and 7/2 don’t look bad to me.

      Martin Colwell 08/04/16 1:48 PM Reply


  • Well done with ‘Henri’ Josh, and also bad luck. I topped up the place at 5/2 with BFSB as mentioned earlier, so thank you.

    Richard Sutton 08/04/16 2:02 PM Reply


  • Just got in to see paddys done it again on gods own,my first winner

    gerry 08/04/16 2:41 PM Reply


  • God’s Own yesterday night 21/1
    Brennan
    Favs are demolished

    Pab 08/04/16 2:55 PM Reply


  • It was indeed Pab,only i backed it e/w few days ago when 8 runners,thought it might get placed,hard to know if he would won if fav didnt fall but thats racing

    gerry 08/04/16 3:02 PM Reply


  • It is tricky race with 5 runners
    very short to shart fav lay
    than there is only 3 hores left
    mostly win is second or third
    odds often are very high
    it works to watch trading.winner is in 20%
    early price and price like hal hour before race has to be in 20%
    but Brennan is in super form
    nice day Fairy Rath second

    Pab 08/04/16 3:23 PM Reply


    • Yet another nice ew Potters Legend

      Pab 08/04/16 3:56 PM Reply


  • Taking the Topham at face value indicates the Course is riding better than the “soft” advertised as all 4 placed horses like Good ground, however with rain forecast I cant think it wont be soft tomorrow…..still I have ante post on Holywell and Shutthefrontdhoping JJo has not peaked day early!

    Ian 08/04/16 4:00 PM Reply


  • It does happen a lot that the fav especially in novice chases is so short that it presents value for other runnersat big prices, you don’t have to be right too often,

    gerry 08/04/16 4:18 PM Reply


  • I will looking for Brennan

    Pab 08/04/16 4:19 PM Reply


    • Jennie Candish is in Chepstow tomorrow

      Pab 08/04/16 4:21 PM Reply


  • Price on Nick Pullens’s National selections Taking a hit already. Is it a case of get on as soon as possible or trust that they may drift back out given the nature of the market?

    ali 08/04/16 7:03 PM Reply


    • Do me a Favour Nick Pullen a Pin a Pin Sticker at 200 Quid a Year

      Richard 08/04/16 8:24 PM Reply


    • Carried Away Sorry.

      Richard 08/04/16 8:24 PM Reply


      • that’s fine. only follow his free stuff, which is really good. also justified by what josh said below

        Ali 08/04/16 11:12 PM Reply


  • what’s Nick Pullen got to do with Anything on this Board . Another Expensive Pin Sticker .?

    Richard 08/04/16 8:10 PM Reply


    • I have pointed those on my list to Nick’s Free stuff, email list, what was Juicy Plums etc – he knows his stuff – and is a good value judge. And you can pick up new ideas with his write ups.(hence why some readers may mention him – no problem with that) I know nothing on his paid services and won’t comment on those! – albeit I think this is the best free blog in town, but then again, I may be a tad biased haha.

      Josh Wright 08/04/16 8:35 PM Reply


      • I used to take Juicy Plums and enjoyed it and he had enough big priced winners to make it fun, and I matched it with a paid service costing a quid a week for a years sub from speculateaccumulate elite tips. However Nick then created Against The Crowd and started charging £20 a month for it, the website is inaccessible most of the time (password does not work) and his tips have deteriorated, he seems to have handed admin over to Oxfordshire Press who are not to be trusted in my humble opinion. A shame but after 2 months I cancelled my £20 a month fee, I will now stick with the best free blog on the planet (this one) and an excellent paid service costs a quid a week. I steer clear of anything from oxford press and agora from painful experience.

        Ian 09/04/16 6:50 AM Reply


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