Members Report 04/04/16 (COMPLETE)

No luck on Sunday as our runner got going a bit too late and lost out on 3rd by around 1 length, not that he was ever in any real contention of winning, which was frustrating. I won’t be dwelling on that any longer. Moving on. A new week beckons and it promises to be an exciting ride… (Can Many Clouds take another step to becoming my generation’s Red Rum? I do hope so)  

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NEW POST: APRIL TRAINER

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TIPS

3.30 Warwick 

Financial Climate – 1 point win NR

I will keep this fairly short. All of this horses handicap chase wins have come in races with 1-7 runners – 4/8 – he is 0/14, 4 places with more. He also has a good record when returning in the 16-30 day period, gets on well with this jockey, and all race conditions look fine. There is some rain around and it could be soft come race time, which is fine. Any worse than that and it is a bit unknown, albeit bits and pieces on heavy. He has the ability to take this. He finished behind Dawson City the last day and the question is why would he turn around the form – well he has been dropped 4lb which will help, and he also has a change of headgear, with the visor coming on first time. At his best he has a higher level of form than these as well – a decent runs in C2s and G3s for example. Dawson City does have the odd blunder in his locker also and always gives the impression he wants further – never quite getting there. I am never totally happy backing a horse with a string of 2s and 3s next to their name. Hopefully Financial Climate relishes this smaller filed (even though it is only by 1 from the last day) and the less competitive nature of this race. I thought 9/2 was generous enough. Sherwood is in decent enough form also. 

I can’t really have the rest. Beeves could win but is becoming frustrating and unlike a few in these colours who left McCain doesn’t look to have improved for the switch. He has the ability to take this but I don’t think he should be shorter than the selection. The others have major form questions and major stamina questions to overcome and I am happy to take them on. 

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4.10 Wincanton – 

Strollawaynow – 1 point win – 15/2 – UP 11/2

(bet365/Lad/WH/BV) 

For me this one stands out at the prices and I am taking the chance that he has hated wearing the hood the last twice. He never really looked happy in either of those two recent runs – and he probably would have needed his first run of the season. He has two bits of form in the last year or so that would see him go very close in this. A repeat of that Taunton win, his only one over fences to date, could well be good enough. And that 8l 3rd behind Financial Climate at Chepstow in Feb 2015 would be good enough – he was rated 119 in that race, and comes here off 108 – which is also 6lb below his only chase win. I think there is just enough juice in the ground with some rain about, which will help. Now, if the hood wasn’t the reason for his two recent runs, then this is 1 point loaned back to the bookies (that I will get back in future, with plenty of interest) The trainer has only had 3 runners at the track in the last 2 years, 1 has won. He has had 3 runners in the last 30 days, 2 have placed. This is about whether he can repeat those exploits at Taunton or Chepstow. If he does, he is no 15/2 shot in this race.

It is pretty weak and at the odds I wouldn’t want to be lumping on anything else. Saint Raph has stamina questions, his one run over this trip and breeding suggesting it is a question. He is short enough in that context for me. Olivers Hill is unexposed and will like the ground, if able to build on his last run. I am not sure why he has been off for quite so long, maybe waiting for the ground. If he was north of 6/1 he would have been more tempting, he could go well. The rest have enough questions over class,fitness,trip,ground,recent form etc. 

PACE – is interesting – there are a few who can go forward – I dont think there will be one who can really get away, and as such they may stay tightly grouped. On paper the pace set up is neither a positive or negative for the selection. I can’t see there being an excuse on that front. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

April Trainer:  NEW POST: APRIL TRAINER

3.10 Winc – Native Robin (16/1<) WON 5/1>9/2 

4.00 War – Decimus (16/1<) DNQ

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.40 Winc – Batavir – 4/1 -3rd – I will mention this one as I/we backed him (micro system) on his first run at Cheltenham when Pipe’s were misfiring – he traveled really well into it that day before ‘blowing up’ a couple from home. He has continued to run well enough but now comes here with the yard in superb form, and arguably this is one of the more weaker races he has contested. He will appreciate the better ground and this may be the perfect trip, esp with some pace on in the race. Trainer Jockey have been in great form the last few days and this one may well continue that. He is a previous C2 winner, and he sould be going very close here given everything in his favour. 

5.10 Winc – G For Ginger – 12/1 – 2nd -seems big for a trainer jockey combo who are 3/9,6 places when teaming up here, for a trainer in such good form again and for one who is adept at readying one first time out in bumpers. What’s more the trainer knows the family well and this one is related to a few bumper winners also. The market is always a good guide with his runners and if there is no money/a drift, then she wont be winning I doubt – but I suspect she is this price due to the other stables represented, rather than her actual chance. On paper a decent EW bet to my eyes. She should be ready to run her race here and as fit as the trainer can get her at home. 

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That is all for today. Good Luck. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

43 Comments

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  • Hopefully there will not be too much rain as I have in my profile notes as follows – Good or GTS ground, Class 3 and below, 1 to 7 runners, 16 to 30 days. I have been waiting for better ground and a small field for some time now

    David 03/04/16 6:50 PM Reply


    • Yep agree, they are pretty much my notes! He handles soft, not a case of his action etc..and small field and potential lack of a blistering pace should help. Heavy would probably help the fav, but none of others I don’t think. He also hasn’t run in his ideal conditions in heavy, ie no 3m c3,1-7 runners on heavy. 9/2 in context of race allows chance. Hopefully no heavy rain!

      Josh Wright 03/04/16 6:59 PM Reply


      • your resident Midlands weather watcher here LOL…could be touch and go really, we had a lot more rain in general area than expected on Saturday morning (hence Uttoxeter was very heavy) and then some unexpected rain early on Sunday although a dry warm sunny end to the day, there has been a bit of over night rain BUT showers, potentially heavy and thundery are expected from midday…it is cloudy at the moment but does look like it could drizzle at any time.

        If I had to guess I’d say it will definitely be SOFT – based on rain in past 48 hours and if it starts to get heavy showers, could get close to heavy, I will be there at around 1pm so will try to update as its easy there to walk to top and bottom bends before racing (e.g no one stops you having a good poke around)

        Ian 04/04/16 7:07 AM Reply


  • Evening Josh,

    Glad you like Fincial Climate since already on. I think Batavir should be winning the 14:40 particularly now going right handed at Warwick which is my NAP. Really should have won last time around but they gave the winner a soft lead. Along with those two Sybarite in the 16:00 Warwick and Ballinvarrig in the 15:10 Wincanton should go well as they have their conditions according to my profiles on them.

    Nick Mazur 03/04/16 6:55 PM Reply


    • Batavir very nice bet
      Sybarite Looks the best in that race
      so maybe win triple together with Fincial Climate

      Pab 03/04/16 9:42 PM Reply


    • Nick -: – assume as you say 2.40 you mean Wincanton!!!!

      Ian 04/04/16 7:09 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I had a day off today and have not seen any results. I like your thinking around financial climate and have had a few quid on. I owe you an additional donation and will sort tomorrow. Someone has contacted me re a gamble tomorrow but has not confirmed it yet. I will post it here tomorrow morning if it is not too short.

    Are you going to Aintree? My brother says we should come up one year but those scouse girls are fierce!

    Martin Colwell 03/04/16 7:26 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin. Taking a day off was a good move! 🙂
      Yep I am off to Aintree,all three days…don’t think I have missed a day since I first moved up here. No comment on the women! It is a brilliant three days, thoroughly recommended.

      Josh Wright 03/04/16 7:39 PM Reply


  • Nick I think Warwick is left-handed.

    John Gorton 03/04/16 8:57 PM Reply


  • I think you mean Wincanton

    John Gorton 03/04/16 9:01 PM Reply


    • Yeah sorry meant 14:40 at Wincanton which is right handed but you’re right Warwick is left handed.

      Nick Mazur 03/04/16 9:20 PM Reply


      • Agree about the Pipe horse having had a good look – he really should be going very close in that (my code for winning!) given all the pointers, his form etc. 4s, and anything bigger, seemed fair. GL

        Josh Wright 04/04/16 8:39 AM Reply


  • 3:40 WINCANTON
    Rafafie 9/1

    Pab 03/04/16 10:52 PM Reply


    • What makes you like him Pab?

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 8:40 AM Reply


      • Gardner/Gardner

        Pab 04/04/16 12:14 PM Reply


  • Major Davis 5.10 Wincanton. 3/1 still available. I have had the word from the stable. Some win, some lose and so up to you.

    Good luck today anyway.

    Martin Colwell 04/04/16 8:45 AM Reply


    • yep, yard 1/1 in bumpers at track as well I think. Paid a bit for him and looks good on paper. Doubt he will go off that price.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 8:48 AM Reply


      • The stable are going all out now until the end of the season to get their horses on the track and win races. The stables runners are fit and so you can rely on that for the next couple of weeks.

        Martin Colwell 04/04/16 9:58 AM Reply


        • Favourite got a good record in this race including last 3 runnings – I was drawn to it as D Skelton already on the One Trick Monthly list but no good jockey booking, P Nicholls 0-1-6 in this race & owner poor in such races Liked G For Ginger for jockey but he better chase rider & his first in type here, trainer also 0/7 nhf but 0-1-2 in this particular race so Josh could be right about EW. W Greatex however is 1 from 3 in bumpers here & won this race last year.

          Andy Silvers 04/04/16 10:35 AM Reply


  • Financial Climate non runner

    jon 04/04/16 8:47 AM Reply


  • there is an interesting stat regarding the offspring of midnight legend, apparently all his hurdles and chase handicap runners since 2008 have made level stakes profit of +544,,which is pretty impressive. 31% ROI. other than checking the race sheets in the bookies, is there a quicker way you might have to find selections?

    malcolm pendrey 04/04/16 10:24 AM Reply


    • Hmm I don’t know outside of using something like HorseRaceBase where you would just set it up as a system, and get access to qualifiers the evening before. Not sure of there are sire trackers out there?? No idea. Someone else may know.
      That is a useful ‘way in’ but given number of bets etc I can’t think it is an approach that would suit me personally – albeit they clearly perform well in general, which is always a good starting point.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm….

      Hope third time lucky with this post…..check out the SotD selection on the Geegeez site. Has lots of Midnight Legend sire stats for you….more than you could shake the proverbial stick at…..

      Best

      Martin

      Martin 04/04/16 11:05 AM Reply


      • There’s a free mag called On Course profit or something – they say Nov-Feb h’cap chases soft ground best for ML

        Andy Silvers 04/04/16 11:59 AM Reply


  • thanks for the Jeremy Scott April idea Josh, that looks interesting. I’m not normally into watching 2yos first time up, but couldnt help be impressed with Mark Johnstons 2 maiden winners at kempton recently, namely Boater and Chupalla. Boater fly jumped out of the gate, so you could argue that might have won by further, but nevertheless was eyecatchingly quick. half and hour later and in Div 2 of the same maiden Chupalla is also mightily impressive and was 0.5 sec faster! There was some chat about the winning time by Chupalla being close to course record on Racinguk which was set in November (as you would expect 2yos to get faster in time), so to be so close to the course record in early part of season is worth noting. The 2nd to Chupalla that day was Stormy Clouds (runs today 2.20 ling) he was the only horse to get anywhere near to the winner and is likely to be useful. i thinkk Hannon started Tiggy Wiggy in that race before. Also a couple of others coming out of those 2 maidens in race today, plus Johnston has newcomer. An intersting race thats all about Mark Johnstons horses even if Stormy Clouds wins! I’ve backed Stormy Clouds in the hope MJ doesnt have another flying machine

    James M 04/04/16 10:36 AM Reply


    • Yep it is – but def one of those where you need to know something I think – suspect his 1st time out 2yos will be overbet now – if you were at Kempton, on looks alone, I think you would have unloaded quite a bit on both – apparently looked the winners all day long pre race – just because of their size compared to others – Johnston clearly has them forward and has done plenty of work with them – question is how much they progress. That is the unknown – some may get better, some may not. An interesting sub plot this season and moving forward…I do like how just loves his to be ridden forward, and it is some training to get a horse used to being in front alone for so long, not pulling, listening to jockey etc. The market is clearly a good indication – he had one at Kempton over the weekend that was put in a 3/1 – 5/2 and didn’t move at all – he got beat.

      I have found an angle for Meehan in maidens that I will share soon – he came up on a few of my track profiles so did a big more digging – has a few big priced ones fall in.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 10:44 AM Reply


      • I wouldn’t pay too much heed to that (near -0.18s) Juv Crse Rec albeit it is 10 years old – it was run early season but horse only ran 4 times & never won again too early season not saying Chupalla no good (I gave 105+, so hannon’s 81+ beatable? Could improve for run) worthy a go for price I suppose – I just back Angie Baby @ 134/s Betdaq liked J/T stats hopefully lay it off a bit less

        Andy Silvers 04/04/16 12:48 PM Reply


        • Whoops… I thought the Johnston horse favourite…. Now backing – bit early for Hamdam al-Maktoum but 30% profitable with 2yo’s here!

          Andy Silvers 04/04/16 12:54 PM Reply


  • It’s going to be SOFT folks at Wincanton at least….. Raining heavy for an hour & same over there, me not far away garden a mudbath.

    Andy Silvers 04/04/16 11:52 AM Reply


    • good! Was worrying that it was going to be too firm for Strollaway – thought good to soft but then heard they had watered parts to maintain Good. He will like the mud.

      Albeit – that probably does for the chances of the Scott micro qualifier, looks like he needs Good, hopefully withdrawn if soft.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 12:00 PM Reply


  • Strollawaynow nice bet

    Pab 04/04/16 12:21 PM Reply


  • I will give a chance tp 3:10 WINCANTON Houston Dynimo
    Pipe horse something above 10/1

    Pab 04/04/16 12:33 PM Reply


  • Likely to be SOFT at best at Warwick; drove through 2 terrific hail storms on M42, very short term and moving north of Course, not so bad here but clouding over now from direction weather is coming from… walked to both bends and I’d say better than some recent meetings but “pudding” would be my official description…I must get a stick!

    Ian 04/04/16 12:47 PM Reply


  • Nice one NATIVEI ROBIN at 9/2, had the f/c with Ballinvarrig (George/Brennan) Combo.

    Miserable day weather wise so having a day at the races via the computer.

    Good ok so far.

    Mike Dennis 04/04/16 2:26 PM Reply


    • yep, got that done, just! Nice job with FC. Had rain stayed away I think Native R would have won that well, and so would Pipes earlier I think. Ballinvarriq a bit of a dog I think sadly, got his head in front there at one point. Will find a weak race for him somewhere.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 2:39 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the new system

    Another one on the Bob, native robin. The betting gods are on our side for now

    Gives us something to attack aintree with

    ali 04/04/16 3:44 PM Reply


    • Yep, just held on – better ground and he would have won that much better, and I would like to think Betavir would have as well. Thankfully the Tom George horse doesnt like winning. Yep, spent most of the afternoon with my head in Aintree trends. Nearly completed 5 races, in addition to GN.

      Josh Wright 04/04/16 4:01 PM Reply


      • Will it be a case of buying a PDF for those Aintree trends/getting it free if a monthly donator, like Cheltenham?

        Ali 04/04/16 4:52 PM Reply


      • and I agree with you RE Native Robin. Skipped away very easily from some useful novices from good yards who went on to frank that form. Looked like he would’ve galloped them into submission on faster ground

        Ali 04/04/16 4:55 PM Reply


        • Yep, this report, or bulk of it, just exclusive for ‘Donations Club members’.Not selling it etc. Should be emailed out by tomorrow afternoon – trends nearly done, want to research some trainer micros , and possibly any Cheltenham LTO angles.

          Josh Wright 04/04/16 4:57 PM Reply


          • Sounds good. How many decent trends races are you aiming to look at, aside the National of course?

            Ali 04/04/16 5:10 PM Reply


  • I think Strollawaynow is to be crossed off the list as he dogged it from about the 2nd fence but much better than the person who was trying to make a case for Sybarite, who must be the arch villain of all time

    bernard 04/04/16 5:18 PM Reply


  • Ali – only 5 – Red Rum Handicap Chase/ Topham / 2m4f hncp hurdle / 3m handicap hurdle /3m1f handicap chase.

    Not sure what I will look at and tip in yet. Am going through every other races and highlighting positive.negative trainers, and record of those that raced at Cheltenham Festival LTO.

    Josh Wright 04/04/16 5:18 PM Reply


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