UPDATE: first tip in Lincoln is up in new post. Mutarakez 1.5 points win 10/1
Well, firstly, I have a very important announcement to make…
This will be my last ever post. The blog is being removed tomorrow evening.
Due to the loss of Wellforth I can no longer afford to bet anymore. In a moment of madness I lost all of my profits from this jumps season on him, around £3200. Gutted. I can’t bear to keep going.
So, thanks for your support, and all the memories.
Did I get you? Did I ? (I doubt it) Happy April 1st! (how awful was that attempt at ‘April Fools’ humour??!)….
(and of course that is playing on the premise that some of you may miss the blog if it vanished, which I hope is true to an extent! 🙂 )
Back to business.
Wellforth is what I will come to term as a ‘Jeremy Corbyn Bet’ – very very very ‘Left Field’. Occasionally they come in, albeit it isn’t wise to visit that field too often. Not much to be said there. It was a strange ride mind. Just plodded all the way around. Not even pulled up. Strange. I think that leaves us on just shy of +11 points for the month, but I will get updated results for March out tomorrow hopefully, or maybe early next week.
THANKS...a big thanks to you very clever blog readers who have been having it right off these last couple of days. Richard put up a fairly comfortable 4/1 winner on the sand, with very sound reasoning. Pab chipped in with a 5/2 Kerry Lee winner, James highlighted Engai who won at 10/1>13/2 – a winner that could have only been found by watching his last race – top work.
And finally one Mr Gorton…who, in a moment of brilliance, thought he would mention a 33/1 shot, who romped home in the 6.40 Chelmsford. This game is easy, eh??
The reasoning for that one was as good as it gets for me in flat/AW handicaps and hopefully a sign of things to come for this flat season. He was a CD winner who had dropped massively down the handicap. He peaked in the same month last year and importantly was reunited with Ben Curtis – who was 4/6 on the horse (horse has ‘only’ won 10 times) – he was on the horse for his three wins last March. (John’s analysis, not mine) His recent form was irrelevant in the context of that info, and of course his price allowed you to overlook plenty. Just superb. These ‘plots’ can be spotted every now and then. I will be working hard to try and uncover some ‘profile handicappers’ like that to follow this flat season. I suspect John will have a few to chip in over time also 🙂
FORUM…I should state now that I do intend to introduce a forum function for ‘Donations Club Members’, and possibly a ‘live chat’ function. This will be in the next few months (as part of a design overhaul) and will allow you shrewdies to share even more horses like that. I am aware the current comments function is a bit crap. (that will be improved and still available to all readers)
Anyway, onto the horses…
Bob Tucker – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) WON 11/2 (nose)
At the prices this is the most interesting one in here for sure. This is only his 11th chase start, this looks to be the perfect trip,(stays 2m7 just,doesnt look like he stays 3m+) the ground should be fine and the trainer is in better form than he has been. He bolted up in a Worcester Novice Handicap Chase (runs off same mark) – and I don’t know the strength of that form but he has three pieces of chase form last year, at Sandown and here twice, that would give him every chance of taking this. I will just put a line through his last two runs, the second which may have came too soon after the first (14 days) and also came in first time headgear – there is a chance he didn’t like that. Hughes is a top jockey who has placed on him before – he is 0/11 at the track but I doubt he has ridden too many with a chance, and in any case, is a brilliant jockey and we won’t be found wanting on that front for me.
I also like the fact that he can/will bowl along in front. Astigos may try and be up there but he needs a bog and may not be able to match strides. If he can get an uncontested lead he may well stay there. His jumping can be suspect at times but hopefully his jockey can get him in a rhythm. I think 7/1 looks generous enough here, given his profile and that of the oppo. Clearly he needs to bounce back but to an extent they all have something to prove…
The two Mulholland horses have plenty to prove and both come from stables where you expect connections got the best out of them. He is 11/54,21 places with stable newcomers first time up in last 2 years – so he is good, but is no alchemist. Velator has the ability to take this but may need better ground (although it is drying) and is now 0/15, 4 places from OR 121 or higher. He has yet to run well after a break either. Mulholland may well eek out more but at the prices I am happy to leave him. The Ould Lad – well you must have some faith to back him. Tom George, a fine trainer of chasers, couldn’t find the key. Paul Nicholls, still THE trainer of chasers, had him for one run and that was that – I can’t think many can improve horses from either of those two yards – he is unexposed but has plenty to prove now and 5/2 is just insulting for me, even if he bolts up, I am not sure how anyone can have him at a confident wager at the odds. He could still be anything, so a win would not be a shock, but I can’t touch him.
Bincombe is now 0/7,1 p OR 121+, 0/4,1 p beyond 2m5f and comes here after a break which he has to prove. Hobbs is also getting quieter, having had a brilliant first two thirds of the season. He does know how to win though, but at 3s I was happy to leave. He is 3/5,3 places in handicaps when dropping into the OR 111-120 range, so one for the trackers maybe. (ruined if he bolts up today!) Astigos just has plenty on and that win was in a weak race in a bog. I think he needs it heavy and Williams is another who is getting quieter. Kings Cross 2nd is interesting at the odds but his trainer is 3/58 here, he may need it softer and he has stamina to prove – he has yet to prove he won’t stay and on the damns side it doesn’t offer much hope – unless he has ALL of his dad’s genes, which is possible. He isn’t exactly in great form either. That leaves Hindon Road – who is very unexposed, this his 3rd chase start – but he needs to step up. King is also going quiet and this one didn’t reach great heights over hurdles. His two chase runs have been abject at best so far and I would want to see more before backing him in this sphere. He may well show it today, but he is another I am more than comfortable leaving.
So, it is open enough,with every horse have some big questions to answer. I think if Bob repeats either of his last two runs here over fences here, or that Sandown run in Dec 14, he will take this. Let’s hope he gets the lead and jumps well! If he does, 7/1 may look generous come 2.30.
That will be all for tips
Kerry Lee worked her magic on Alfie Spinner. A superb training performance really. A few today…
2.50 Font – Laughton Part (20/1<) / The Geegeez Geegee (12/1<) 2nd 12/1 /UP
3.00 Newb – City Supreme (12/1<) / Fin Despere (20/1<) WON 9/1>13/2 / UP (lucky,but you make your own luck 🙂 )
3.50 Weth – Ballyvaughan (12/1<) UP
4.00 Font – Royal Salute (12/<) WON 13/2> 11/2 (if betting with Bet365 you get free bet to same stake on 4.20 Ascot on Sunday)
4.35 Font – Lost Arca (14/1<) UP
(2/7, + 10.5 points if backing all 1 point win- about time they had a good day!)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST