Members Report: 01/04/2016 (COMPLETE)

 

UPDATE: first tip in Lincoln is up in new post. Mutarakez 1.5 points win 10/1

 

Well, firstly, I have a very important  announcement to make…

This will be my last ever post. The blog is being removed tomorrow evening. 

Due to the loss of Wellforth I can no longer afford to bet anymore. In a moment of madness I lost all of my profits from this jumps season on him, around £3200. Gutted. I can’t bear to keep going. 

So, thanks for your support, and all the memories. 

***

Did I get you? Did I ? (I doubt it) Happy April 1st! (how awful was that attempt at ‘April Fools’ humour??!)….

(and of course that is playing on the premise that some of you may miss the blog if it vanished, which I hope is true to an extent! 🙂 ) 

***

Back to business.

Wellforth is what I will come to term as a ‘Jeremy Corbyn Bet’ – very very very ‘Left Field’. Occasionally they come in, albeit it isn’t wise to visit that field too often. Not much to be said there. It was a strange ride mind. Just plodded all the way around. Not even pulled up. Strange. I think that leaves us on just shy of +11 points for the month, but I will get updated results for March out tomorrow hopefully, or maybe early next week. 

***

THANKS...a big thanks to you very clever blog readers who have been having it right off these last couple of days. Richard put up a fairly comfortable 4/1 winner on the sand, with very sound reasoning. Pab chipped in with a 5/2 Kerry Lee winner, James highlighted Engai who won at 10/1>13/2 – a winner that could have only been found by watching his last race – top work. 

And finally one Mr Gorton…who, in a moment of brilliance, thought he would mention a 33/1 shot, who romped home in the 6.40 Chelmsford. This game is easy, eh??

The reasoning for that one was as good as it gets for me in flat/AW handicaps and hopefully a sign of things to come for this flat season. He was a CD winner who had dropped massively down the handicap. He peaked in the same month last year and importantly was reunited with Ben Curtis – who was 4/6 on the horse (horse has ‘only’ won 10 times) – he was on the horse for his three wins last March. (John’s analysis, not mine) His recent form was irrelevant in the context of that info, and of course his price allowed you to overlook plenty. Just superb. These ‘plots’ can be spotted every now and then. I will be working hard to try and uncover some ‘profile handicappers’ like that to follow this flat season. I suspect John will have a few to chip in over time also 🙂 

FORUM…I should state now that I do intend to introduce a forum function for ‘Donations Club Members’, and possibly a ‘live chat’ function. This will be in the next few months (as part of a design overhaul) and will allow you shrewdies to share even more horses like that. I am aware the current comments function is a bit crap. (that will be improved and still available to all readers) 

Anyway, onto the horses…

***

TIPS

2.25 Newbury

Bob Tucker – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) WON 11/2 (nose)

At the prices this is the most interesting one in here for sure. This is only his 11th chase start, this looks to be the perfect trip,(stays 2m7 just,doesnt look like he stays 3m+) the ground should be fine and the trainer is in better form than he has been. He bolted up in a Worcester Novice Handicap Chase (runs off same mark) – and I don’t know the strength of that form but he has three pieces of chase form last year, at Sandown and here twice, that would give him every chance of taking this. I will just put a line through his last two runs, the second which may have came too soon after the first (14 days) and also came in first time headgear – there is a chance he didn’t like that. Hughes is a top jockey who has placed on him before – he is 0/11 at the track but I doubt he has ridden too many with a chance, and in any case, is a brilliant jockey and we won’t be found wanting on that front for me. 

I also like the fact that he can/will bowl along in front. Astigos may try and be up there but he needs a bog and may not be able to match strides. If he can get an uncontested lead he may well stay there. His jumping can be suspect at times but hopefully his jockey can get him in a rhythm. I think 7/1 looks generous enough here, given his profile and that of the oppo. Clearly he needs to bounce back but to an extent they all have something to prove… 

The two Mulholland horses have plenty to prove and both come from stables where you expect connections got the best out of them. He is 11/54,21 places with stable newcomers first time up in last 2 years – so he is good, but is no alchemist. Velator has the ability to take this but may need better ground (although it is drying) and is now 0/15, 4 places from OR 121 or higher. He has yet to run well after a break either. Mulholland may well eek out more but at the prices I am happy to leave him. The Ould Lad – well you must have some faith to back him. Tom George, a fine trainer of chasers, couldn’t find the key. Paul Nicholls, still THE trainer of chasers, had him for one run and that was that – I can’t think many can improve horses from either of those two yards – he is unexposed but has plenty to prove now and 5/2 is just insulting for me, even if he bolts up, I am not sure how anyone can have him at a confident wager at the odds. He could still be anything, so a win would not be a shock, but I can’t touch him. 

Bincombe is now 0/7,1 p OR 121+, 0/4,1 p beyond 2m5f and comes here after a break which he has to prove. Hobbs is also getting quieter, having had a brilliant first two thirds of the season. He does know how to win though, but at 3s I was happy to leave. He is 3/5,3 places in handicaps when dropping into the OR 111-120 range, so one for the trackers maybe. (ruined if he bolts up today!) Astigos just has plenty on and that win was in a weak race in a bog. I think he needs it heavy and Williams is another who is getting quieter. Kings Cross 2nd is interesting at the odds but his trainer is 3/58 here, he may need it softer and he has stamina to prove – he has yet to prove he won’t stay and on the damns side it doesn’t offer much hope – unless he has ALL of his dad’s genes, which is possible. He isn’t exactly in great form either. That leaves Hindon Road – who is very unexposed, this his 3rd chase start – but he needs to step up. King is also going quiet and this one didn’t reach great heights over hurdles. His two chase runs have been abject at best so far and I would want to see more before backing him in this sphere. He may well show it today, but he is another I am more than comfortable leaving.

So, it is open enough,with every horse have some big questions to answer. I think if Bob repeats either of his last two runs here over fences here, or that Sandown run in Dec 14, he will take this. Let’s hope he gets the lead and jumps well! If he does, 7/1 may look generous come 2.30.  

***

That will be all for tips

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Kerry Lee worked her magic on Alfie Spinner. A superb training performance really. A few today… 

Jumps Handicappers

2.50 Font – Laughton Part (20/1<) / The Geegeez Geegee (12/1<) 2nd 12/1   /UP

3.00 Newb – City Supreme (12/1<) / Fin Despere (20/1<) WON 9/1>13/2  / UP (lucky,but you make your own luck 🙂 ) 

3.50 Weth – Ballyvaughan (12/1<) UP 

4.00 Font – Royal Salute (12/<) WON 13/2> 11/2 (if betting with Bet365 you get free bet to same stake on 4.20 Ascot on Sunday) 

4.35 Font – Lost Arca (14/1<) UP

(2/7, + 10.5 points if backing all 1 point win- about time they had a good day!) 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST  

Nothing today.  

***

Post Complete.

Good Luck.

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

75 Comments

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  • She had yet another winer on hurdle
    Rebecca Curts had her double today
    one was against Pipe fav both wins were around 8/1
    20ti to midnight

    it is not april joke
    Klop pis negotating purchase of one poish player two more and LFC will be champion next season history like to repeat

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • Warren Geatrex has good record at wetherby with all his runners but 4/4 with chasers.Tsar Alexandre at 5/1 2.40

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


    • Good spot, and interesting that Sheehan is here rather than at Newbury, albeit only one horse their for the boss, opposed to three here, who all look fairly well fancied.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • ahhh!! had me for about half a second there!

    the Honeyball system has been on the back burner for me lately, but it goes back into 1pt mode for City Supreme in the 3.00 tomorrow

    This one improve a lot for the upping in trip last time and looks a good running-on stayer, which he’ll need if Speredek tries to do a Red Devil Lads on them again tomorrow

    Ali 10 months ago Reply


  • I go for The Geegeez Geegee 8/1 now

    2:25 NEWBURY venetia Astigos 10/1

    1:50 NEWBURY Dueling Banjos 5/1 jockey Johnston
    small specuation on Bigbadjohn 18/1 same race Rebeca Curts in form

    3:15 WETHERBY
    Theatrical Style 6/1
    all depends on tomorrow odds

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


    • Well done Pab, top tipping again – a nice 20/1 return! Happy days, super stuff.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Nice one – one question, did you advise Wellforth to “set up” the April Fool caper???….

    Ian 10 months ago Reply


    • haha – no certainly not! No April Fool is worth £20 of my money, that was certainly no joke! Albeit if I had tipped him today many would probably think I was having it on!

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Gotta give Monetary Fund a shout in the 3.00 Newbury – clocked career best figs same cd & going & running from 18lb lower mark good record in April & may have needed run last time?

    Andy Silvers 10 months ago Reply


    • yep on handicapping terms he certainly has a chance and may well have needed it last time – he does struggle to win though but he has the ability to take this. An interesting runner for sure at the odds, albeit open to attack from younger legs. GL

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • B Hughes has gone down to Newbury for two rides,both for Longsdon,something tells me one of these is going to win.only thing is Hughes has had 17 rides round Newbury with no winners,not even one placed,lets hope thing change today.Cheers BoB

    BoB 10 months ago Reply


    • Yep, agree Bob it is a slight concern – but I don’t like to be put off by such stats so much – not when it is say the only big negative I could see – I remember tipping/backing Count Guido Deiro at Newbury a few weeks ago – young JJ Slevin was up – i forget stats but he was 3/70+ odd over hurdles I think – a literal interpretation of those stats may have put some off. Hughes is a class rider and I can’t think there is anything about this track that doesn’t suit him – may well just be the horses he has ridden, possibly linked to form of trainers at this track who he may have ridden for before. Who knows. 7s was just about good enough for me all in. He has only ridden 6 handicappers here in last 730 days, no places yet – handicaps always a ok guide, could have ridden lots of no hopers in maiden hurdles/NHF races etc

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Well, we radically disagree over Kings Cross! I took 16/1 because of the quick return, the stamina in the pedigree and the run style of the horse which leads me to hope he needs this track and the extra two furlongs, Yes, he might need a bog but the extra distance can compensate.
    I’m not crabbing your bet, perfectly reasonable, but my judgement was based on outstanding value about a horse that has just returned to form.
    No doubt, come the hour, I’ll be cross and you’ll be bobbing up and down with joy 🙂

    Chris 10 months ago Reply


    • haha – it is good to disagree, that’s what great about this game. I can see why you would have a go at those odds, and I would not fall of my seat if he won. I wasnt inspired by his recent form, or form in general – a few of the chases he has run well in havent worked out that well. We shall see, you can overlook plenty at those odds and maybe I will be crying into my betting slip!

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • It was nearly an honourable draw 🙁
        Well done everyone.

        Chris 10 months ago Reply


      • ah I can feel your pain there Chris, what a race. I hope you may have dabbled on the forecast! Very good value call, I would say you are the moral winner of that race analysis!

        Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


        • No, I never thought about the F/c. Oh dear.

          Chris 10 months ago Reply


          • best not to think about that! we have all been there – let a 90/1 forecast go before xmas with two horses tipped up on here. Never pretty!

            Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • IT IS APRIL FOOLS DAY, OR i WOULD HAVE BEEN SAD!

    malcolm pendrey 10 months ago Reply


  • wish had read about that 33 to 1 winner, it would have convinced me to back it!

    malcolm pendrey 10 months ago Reply


  • interesting to see above comments about kings cross, have had £33 win on it

    malcolm pendrey 10 months ago Reply


    • You and Chris may be spot on. Looks to be between mine, yours and Hindon Road for me. Cant have the top 3 at all on odds, or Astigos.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • might play the forecast later then, depending on the odds nearer the off

        Paul 10 months ago Reply


        • yep, market increasingly suggesting that a better run from Hindon Road expected. Given first chase run was after a break and latter one on ground he may have hated can see why. Is in the very unexposed category. King only 2/52 last 30 dats, 1/24 last two weeks which is a neg. Cant really have Kings personally but a case can be made.

          Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Glad you are carrying on Josh.

    I failed to pass on a gamble to you all yesterday so sorry, I was at St Pancras at 9.25 and I was contacted re Ilovemints at 6/4. I got £600 0n across 3 bookmakers but then had to catch a train. I know most of you don’t like short pricers, but I will pass these on anyway. It got backed to 8/13 and won by a mile. I have not looked today yet.
    I am on Bob Tucker and Donna Graciosa in the 4.20.

    Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Martin…me carrying on was never in doubt! – who are your sources – in general terms – trainers/yard folk/owners/other pros?? yea I wouldnt have touched that price haha – albeit clearly value – you clearly have the ‘information’ mindset, and the ‘unloading’ mindset, which I don’t have – my ‘unload’ is about £50-60 max on one horse! (2-3 points)

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • I have stable sources in 4 outfits and Mr G’s stable is one. To be fair they are usually short prices and you have to be in early. I have to pay them for every winner they give. They do give losers as well.

        Martin Colwell 10 months ago Reply


  • For anyone doing grand national bets for family members friends or when the dog barks at a name betvictor are paying to 6 places NRNB.Might not have best prices but as a lot have nibble at big prices worth bearing in mind,my own selection so far is saint are,backed last year,just failed to get up on that occasion,as he likes to be towards front might sneak a place

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


  • Lingfield 4.55, Seamster look good at 9/1 good draw

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • I like City Supreme today 3.00 newb. They dawdled round lto at taunton and CS really wanted to go faster and the hold up tactics played against him. Turning for home the leader kicked on and CS got involved in what seemed like a minor barging match, but i reckon that cost him dear, if not the race, as it was at a crucial time in the race. CS didnt really recover from that. Frustrating for connections and those that backed him (7/2 into 9/4). I hope they can show true running today as pace in race with Speredek likely to make it. Good luck

    James M 10 months ago Reply


  • Bigbadjohn won was 38/1 and i had only ew on him
    Miss R Curtis 3 wins one second in four starts

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


    • @ Pab…… Very well done Pab! I’ve noticed you’ve made a few posts on here and picked a couple of nice winners but nobody has replied to your posts. I’m guessing English is not your first language as I find some of what you post a little tricky to understand sometimes so maybe that’s why. If I had to post in another language it would be totally incomprehensible! Hopefully picking Bigbadjohn will get you the recognition you deserve!!! 🙂

      Chris Albin 10 months ago Reply


      • Thanks english not my native
        but i can ore take care
        i am talking a lo wih usa young people ,it is like internet slang

        Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • Wow boys lovely forecast

    Kevin 10 months ago Reply


  • Boom waiting for the result to say boom to you Josh well done

    Kevin 10 months ago Reply


  • Well done Josh. I have had two bets and two seconds so far today and that would have been cruel not to have got there. Good call, thanks.

    Richard Sutton 10 months ago Reply


  • Bob Tucker –won

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • Nice one Josh. Normal service resumed !

    Andy 10 months ago Reply


  • Well done Josh.brilliant stuff,another sore throat with shouting one home.BoB

    BoB 10 months ago Reply


  • thank god the stats got that one wrong josh 2/32 b.h. and c.l. well done sir

    paddy kearney 10 months ago Reply


    • That jockey course stats you are referring to? or jockey with trainer – yes latter I think. I always view jockey/trainer stats as a positive first and foremost, and if I like the price will rarely let their stats put me off if that makes sense. All about how you interpret stats, in context of horses price.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Great run from Bob Tucker! Cheers Josh!

    Tom 10 months ago Reply


  • Great Stuff Josh,thats april up and running in profit,stick with the summer jumps too lol

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


    • ah yep I will have an interest on those – esp NewtA and Stratford, good jumpers can get away on front end at those tracks, always a decent way in. Perth and Cartmel are good fun also.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Thanks Chaps, that was rather exciting. Collectively we have rather demolished that race – those on the second at 16s >15/2 are the moral winners as that turned out to be best value bet – and some forecast also if you had a nibble. Happy with the +7 points – all this luck evens out – hughes brilliant to get that jump at the end, which one it – mistake there and that was that.

    Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • just a warning for peops on here a lot of negative talk on twitter about books fun88 not paying bog and other things

    paddy kearney 10 months ago Reply


  • Cracking call Josh
    Not often back one that gets the photo usually come second in them.

    David 10 months ago Reply


    • Sweating a bit there – I thought he had it first glance, second not sure – thought dead -heat at worse but thankfully Hughes did the business.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Nice work mate

    Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


  • Cheers Josh, didn’t do the forecast in the en… may have just done with Hindon Road anyway (altho would have played the tricast if more runners). Seriously good tipping since I started following in mid January.
    Paul

    Paul 10 months ago Reply


    • I didn’t do it either, and like you would probably have been with King’s! I did end up having some savers on other two – i am just not conditioned to forecasts/tricasts etc! Yep, been on a good run all jumps season really and no sign of slowing up just yet – March was decent enough – a couple of different decisions away from being spectacular, but thats the way it goes. Onwards.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • excellent work again Josh, Hughes has improved out of all recognition in a finish over past 2 years, always a fine judge of pace but no longer suspect in a finish, I had just sent you my regular donation for the month (bank trans you should have it later today or Monday)….might pop a bit more if you can win the Lincoln tomorrow…thanks again…

    Ian 10 months ago Reply


  • hi josh nice to see bob tucker holding on,i have a new email address and i have sent you a small donation,keep up the good work,you are supplimenting a poor state pension for me

    billy 10 months ago Reply


  • Josh, another fine piece of tipping

    James 10 months ago Reply


  • think that was proform stat i read on betdaq they got a p brennan one wrong as well 1/28 at track

    paddy kearney 10 months ago Reply


  • That was squeaky bum time!!
    Bad luck to John-bet u are cursing mate-I know I would be-but hope u done a saver on BT!!
    I only read the post at 2.24-and decided to just take a chance and stick £20 on without reading the write up as I didn’t have time!!
    I thought BT was getting there slowly on the run in-and the further they would have gone-I think he would have edged further ahead-was a short run in from the last and only just enough to by a whisker!!!
    Well done Josh-first one ive backed in a while-and will see how April goes and sort a donation at the end-if I’m in profit.
    Good luck

    Mick 10 months ago Reply


  • on a run josh keep her lit

    paddy kearney 10 months ago Reply


  • City Supreme brilliant run!

    Tom 10 months ago Reply


    • rather lucky but the system bets deserved some luck! Will take that at 9/1.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • Good call James M

    Richard Sutton 10 months ago Reply


  • yet another win Miss R Curtis/Whelan
    Potters Cross
    form 134P/UU
    Miss R Curtis/Whelan incredible duo last two days

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • That Rebecca Curtis-she’s obviously on a hot streak right now…funny how some trainers seems to hit a purple patch-have to kee an eye from now on!
    Great bit of tipping James M-shame I didn’t have a bean on City Supreme!!

    Mick 10 months ago Reply


    • punters nicely pumped her horse at 38/1 just before race start price was 20/1

      Pab 10 months ago Reply


    • I’ve not taken my eyes off Rebecca Curtis since I first saw her about 6 years ago at Worcester….very foxy lady!

      Ian 10 months ago Reply


  • Cracking run from your tip Josh!

    And City Supreme tops things off. I’ll keep telling myself he was always gonna get there

    Ali 10 months ago Reply


  • were in again lads brill.josh

    paddy kearney 10 months ago Reply


    • Indeed, good old Anthony Honeyball – brilliant with his handicap hurdlers. Lovely stuff. About time the ‘jumps handicappers’ had a good day mind!

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


  • 7.30 at Dundalk is AL MOHALHAL Bolger horse
    Bolger is Dundalk specialist and Godolphin group coach
    9/1 good draw

    Pab 10 months ago Reply


  • Honeyball finally giving back to the long suffering (well only a little I guess) micro followers. Two lovely winners today.

    Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


    • BTW Josh the freebet will be Sunday not tomorrow since tomorrow is a Channel 4 race and was the 16:00 was a feature race. Small thing that B365 do to try and confuse people.

      Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


      • ah, i thought it was the second of their Channel 4/1+ Offer Races – which they have 2 a day when no C4 racing – assumed goes on to the next such race which is the 2.15. I am confused, will read the Tcs and Cs! Cheers.

        Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


        • Today was a Feature race. It still counts as a free bet but next feature race is the 16:20 at Ascot.

          Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


          • yep you are right, read up on it properly now. That is something I didn’t know, clearly!!

            Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


        • I do so wish you could edit. I think what’s happened here is 365 have deemed the 2:15 a Channel 4 race even though its not on Channel 4! Go figure.

          Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


          • Well, I thought it was the same offer, not a difference!! (yep will ad editing to the technical/redesign upgrades list)

            Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


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