Members Report: 31/03/16 (COMPLETE)

 

NEW REPORT FOR YOU…. (has been emailed out)…

THE FLAT IS BACK: FREE TRAINER TRACK PROFILE: DONCASTER >>>

***

A couple of new posts for you stats/trends followers to get stuck into…(right click to open in a new tab – or just click ‘Blog’ at the top and they are on the left hand side) 

  • SATURDAY BIG RACE TRENDS: Lincoln (plus some stats for the Spring Mile,kindly provided by one of you) 
  • AINTREE: THE GRAND NATIONAL : I have just looked at the last 5 years for this, and I may just keep it at that. There are quite a few eye-catchers in there. 

**

Onto today…

TIPS

2.40 Bangor 

WellForth – 1 point winUP 25/1 – just plodded,all the way round. 

I am quite possibly losing my marbles with this selection but it is a case of ‘anything could happen’ and in that context, given the oppo, and the price, I just couldn’t resist. I do clearly need to work on my staking – I have nowhere near the confidence of a good run from this one as I did with Gibbstown, who probably should have been a 2 pointer (easy with hindsight,I know!) At the same time, unless having ‘unloaded’ on one race (like the Irish National) I don’t like having 1/2 points on when there are 1 or 2 tips, generally. Every now and then, one of these goes in, and I like to be paid fully on that. 

The horse…well, he has the ability to win this, if indeed he retains any! He is very well handicapped on his chase form, for a reason. But, he is a course and distance winner, he returns to fences after some time, this is his 5th run back after a long break (and as an older horse maybe it has taken him time to get into the grove -possibly clutching at straws there!) and a return to any of his old ability would see him stroll away with this. This is actually the trainer’s first chase runner under rules I believe, and she has got two wins to her name to date – she looks like she can train at least (to an extent) and I suspect all those in her yard are rather moderate and hard to win with. 

This is a dart. He could be ridden after fence one and drop out of Wales, or he could get into a rhythm on the front end and never see another rival. In the end, I just couldn’t resist. 

I have no idea how any punter can be overly confident on anything in here and why anyone would back (or ‘unload’)the top 3 at their current prices, given the questions that they all have.  They are all generally out of form, most of them have something to prove, a few have yet to do it over fences. It really is a mediocre bunch where anyone of them ‘could’ win. In that context you either don’t play, or play one at tasty odds. 

I suspect those in white coats will be circling outside my flat at around 2.50, but I just had to have a go!

***

That will be all for tips. The 3.25 Ffos Las does look to be between the top two, who have been well found in the market. If Kerry Lee can get Alfie Spinner to win this it would probably match her training performances over in Ireland in the last week. They are known for rekindling enthusiasm in horses and maybe he has enjoyed his strolls through the forests and streams that surround their yard. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) 

3.25 Ffos Las – Alfie Spinner WON 5/2>9/4

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(please remember that these are NOT tips. They are ‘ways in’ usually with some trainer based stats,pace or profile etc. I have a look at the horse and that is about it. No in-depth analysis etc and what you do with the info is up to you)

7.40 Chelmsford – Air of Astana – 7/1 – it looks like it could be wise just to back all of Hugo Palmer’s handicap debutants systematically – in the last year he is 6/18,12 places with such runners, +44 SP. He is 1/3,3 places with those runners here, and in the last 14 days is 1/4,4 places. 7/1 seems generous enough for this ‘could be anything’ type. 

8.10 Chelmsford – Bionic Indian – 15/2 – 9/1 – goes for a trainer/jockey combo who are 5/13,7 places here when teaming up in handicaps. This is a shocker of a race, really really bad (as anyone with Geegeez Gold who clicks on the ‘instant expert tab’ will see) but he has placed a few times and you can put a line through that last run. Horses drawn 14 are 1/3,2 places over this trip (not sure on timeline) against those drawn 1-6 who are now 0/22, 2 places at the track, over 7f. Interesting. 

8.40 Chelmsford – Trident Tested – 7/1 – goes for another trainer who looks to be developing a knack with handicap debutants. John Best is 3/10,5 places in last year, for +32 SP. He is 1/1 at this track. This horse steps up in trip which should suit, has been gelded and goes for a trainer in form, 2/8,3 places in last 30 days. It is clearly a race full of unexposed types but he looks interesting enough, if ready to go. The market should guide. 

***

That is all for today. 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

37 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Kerry Lee. 2.40 Bangor with Jonnston like ajockey 5/2 now

    Pab 11 months ago Reply


    • Kerry Lee 16:20 Bangor-on-Dee
      Itshard To No with Jonnston like ajockey 5/2 now

      Pab 11 months ago Reply


      • Well done Pab, you readers cant stop backing winners in last couple of days!

        Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • A new petition has been launched suggesting that bookies are required to accept all legitimate bets to a max. of £25.
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/125456
    Please sign and publicise amongst other groups, friends, family etc.
    Thanks.

    Chris 11 months ago Reply


    • Done. Cheers

      Mike Dennis 11 months ago Reply


  • 240B Thedrinkymeister has its easiest chance and I backed to win it earlier, so I’ve backed Wellforth to place @ 9/2 on BF.

    Chris 11 months ago Reply


    • Fair enough – yep I agree on that and looking at them, if I was going for one near top end, he would be it. He may romp away although I couldn’t play him at 5/2, but sounds like you may have got bigger than that, which is the way to do it! Albeit you may think 5/2 is rather generous. Interesting on Kim Bailey’s site – he has a link to his thoughts on his runners (which I think used to be free) but you now have to pay £10 per month for the privilege.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Had a small bet on Colourbearer 6.40 Chelmsford. 33/1. Dropped down handicap after 3 on the trot around this time last year. Now on a very low mark.
    Ben Curtis 3/6 is back on board after long absence.

    John Gorton 11 months ago Reply


    • thanks John, yep have just had a look and can see why you have had a nibble at that price. Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


    • Thanks for pointing this out as I had missed him – and I was waiting for the right chance,
      So I was on at 33/1, thanks to you!

      Chris 11 months ago Reply


      • You blog commentators have been in fine form the last two days, every tip has won I think!! Brilliant stuff. Nothing like shared brain power.

        Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    I added another entry to yesterday’s discussion on Sires which you may not have seen. Just a note on utilising HRB which you may find useful as a starting point at least.

    Richard Sutton 11 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Richard, yes I did have a read of that, thanks for sharing. It is a set of tools and an area I have yet to explore in any depth but will do at some point.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • 8.10 Chelmsford – Bionic Indian now a NR Josh!

    Tom 11 months ago Reply


    • Thanks Tom, how disappointing! Had been well backed as well i think. Never mind.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Thanks for the Flat Report, looks good.

    Richard Sutton 11 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, I find the stat you mention on the chelms 8.10 about the draw fascinating, particularly as those drawn 1-6 are in the top 7 of the betting for this race(according to betfair). So on that basis i’m tempted by Ormanumps as is best drawn of the more fancied runners.Do you think there is a logical reason for this draw bias? regards

    James M 11 months ago Reply


    • Hi James, not sure – it may be how the track rides on the inside – or just random – it is a fairly small sample in grand scheme of things and I am not sure odds of runners, but it is worth tracking – if none of those drawn 6 or lower, given odds, dont win, maybe there is something there – I should add those stats are for fields of 12-15 – which this race still is… although even with 8-11 runners the lows underperform, and middle is best place.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


      • thanks for pointing that out, good stuff! Im on Engai today Wolv 2.30. horse was carried out round final bend by a loose horse unusual in flat race i know, but cost this horse vital ground and i judge it as a winner without a penalty, also top jockey on today caught the eye. Good luck.

        James M 11 months ago Reply


        • Top punting James, nice price also.

          Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Somebody has wrote me that weater is changing durng a day
    many NR un AW becouse of that

    Pab 11 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh…

    Thanks for the free Doncaster report….must have taken quite a bit of time. I notice that you’ve opted for a 3 year study period…was there any particular thinking behind this? Also all your micro angles have very high A/Es. Is this an indicator that you look for specifically to be over a particular value?

    Have applied the trends that you generously posted for the Spring Mile. Two horses meet all the trends bar the trainer one plus another. Not surprisingly they are four year olds (Emerald and Master Of Irony both with top jockeys on Buick and Murphy respectively). Others with next best profiles Predominance, Lord of Rock (think this one was entered for the Lincoln?) and Carnival King, again 4 year olds. Right Touch could be considered solely on his form and R Fahey record in the race. Even now there is a chance some of the above mentioned will disappear out the back of the TV and something else bolts up-;)

    Thanks again for the free profile.

    Martin

    Martin 11 months ago Reply


    • Hi Martin,
      Thanks…yea they take about 1 hour each, 30+ tracks, so it takes a while but should be worth it 🙂 The micro system research can take a bit longer if I really have to get the thinking/research cap on. I usually start with the trainer with the most handicap winners that in a worst case is around break even at SP.

      firstly there were no AE specs – given sample sizes they are very much a guide, and there are a few through the report so far that are below 1.00 but that I thought worthy of inclusion. So, I wouldn’t read anything into that. Clearly 1.00+ was a starting point…

      3 years…well a reader, in my last survey, proposed that as an Idea and after some thought I went with it. It was that or 5 years – but, given the approach, i have found in the past that a trainer can have a very good first couple of years, with the latter 3 being poor and vice versa. I think this helps highlight those that have been most consistent in recent years – and of course given it is trainer based/behavior based I concluded 3 years was long enough – given it is meant to be a snap shot you can have confidence in – I think this shorter window may better capture any changes in a trainer’s approach/buying habits etc – we shall see if that is correct, you may disagree of course.

      The hope is it may highlight angles before the market cottons on also – in two or three years time, some of those angles may become less profitable, but by focusing on three year records we should be able to stay ahead of the curve – in theory. I think three full seasons is long enough to spot a habit – and of course the numbers are there for you to interpret, some data sets being stronger than others.

      Josh

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


      • Cheers for the insight Josh…its always interesting to get a different perspective than your own…but I can’t help agreeing with you that its trying to ride the upward curve of the trainers performance before the market cottons on and the bookies adjust their prices accordingly. I usually choose a 5 year study period because it usually gives you large sample sizes which I think can be trusted a little more although as you say you run a risk of catching a down swing in some cases. Anyway your comments are certainly making me think.

        Cheers

        Martin

        Martin 11 months ago Reply


        • Yep, I have been thinking long and hard on that one – I don’t think there is a correct answer. I mean if you took Mark Johnston for example. If you are a HRB user you can always pick those of most interest and dive back in. Where possible, esp for ‘micro angles’ I have dived in to try and ensure results are no dependent on one horse, or one good year. And, for the trainer Micro System, I do go back out and look at a longer period of time as context.
          Trainer’s are increasingly getting more sophisticated and I would think approaches change quicker these days. Omeara has just moved complex for example, Mark Johnston has changed approach to 2yos, or has more focus on them, new training techniques etc.
          We shall see. I was a ‘5 year history’ student, but such are those potential changes, I thought for this one I would look at 3.
          I would like to think as a three year snap shot there is a lot of value there.

          Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


          • Plenty there to ponder further…your comments make me think about a book that I read called ‘The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction by Nate Silver’ and I think some of the ideas in the book can be applied to building profitable ‘micro trends’…for instance build a good model to predict what ever it is you want to predict – in our case horseracing results – and refining it with new data is probably the way to greatly improve your chances of being profitable when betting… this probably won’t make sense if you haven’t read the book…but I’d definitely recommend reading it.

            Cheers

            Martin

            Martin 11 months ago Reply


  • petition done

    peter higgins 11 months ago Reply


  • Martin…yep I have that book on my shelf, I should probably read some more of it, I did start. Someone, maybe you?,has previously commented and recommended I buy it, which I did.

    Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


    • There is a chapter on sports betting…if you just want to get a flavour of the book…but I think someone else has recommended the book to you…probably on here…but not me.

      Notice the prices are up for the Spring Mile…must go have a peek

      Best

      Martin

      Martin 11 months ago Reply


  • Get in you beauty 33/1

    John Gorton 11 months ago Reply


    • oh wow!!! I missed watching it John! Too busy looking at Leicester’s ‘profile’! You beauty!!! We do like a good profile, I nearly put £5 EW on, but then the value player in me just went the full £10 on the nose at 25s. Cheers! I had better watch the replay now. Very very very good spot that – many stars aligned there.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • I must thank you Mr Gorton. An inspired spot re Colourbearer thank you for sharing

    Barry 11 months ago Reply


  • All part of the service LOL

    John Gorton 11 months ago Reply


    • Where do I donate?? haha. 🙂

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Josh you had a bit more than I did. Well done. Building a bank for the Flat. Dont normally study the All-Weather.

    John Gorton 11 months ago Reply


    • Yep, that is more due to a long period of getting where I am now – I rarely have less than 1/2 point on something,(unless an occasional interest bet,which I have cut down to near 0 now) which is what that was – only possible due to having 150+ points in bank from this jumps season I suppose – and I am more conditioned to treating 25/1 shots same as a 5/1 shot than I used to be- that foundation allows more of a cavalier attitude at times…and the more I looked at him the more that jockey booking and his handicap mark stuck out, and his form at this same time last year – as good a ‘profile’ picking as it gets really – three solid factors, along with CD form, combining. That is the power of that approach summed up there.
      Think you will be having some fun this summer!!
      And well done to you, I wouldn’t have had a penny on had you not commented – was not in tracker etc and I didn’t look at race.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Just read the messages for Thursday at 01.25….gutted I didn’t read earlier!!!
    Some great spots by two fellow punters here-John at 33/1 on Colourbearer,and have to mention James M aswel for pointing out Engai in the 2.30 race-would have made a very nice £5ew double!!!
    Damn-that one got away!!Well done guys-hope u cleaned the bookies out!!

    Mick 11 months ago Reply


Post A Reply