NEW REPORT FOR YOU…. (has been emailed out)…
A couple of new posts for you stats/trends followers to get stuck into…(right click to open in a new tab – or just click ‘Blog’ at the top and they are on the left hand side)
- SATURDAY BIG RACE TRENDS: Lincoln (plus some stats for the Spring Mile,kindly provided by one of you)
- AINTREE: THE GRAND NATIONAL : I have just looked at the last 5 years for this, and I may just keep it at that. There are quite a few eye-catchers in there.
WellForth – 1 point win – UP 25/1 – just plodded,all the way round.
I am quite possibly losing my marbles with this selection but it is a case of ‘anything could happen’ and in that context, given the oppo, and the price, I just couldn’t resist. I do clearly need to work on my staking – I have nowhere near the confidence of a good run from this one as I did with Gibbstown, who probably should have been a 2 pointer (easy with hindsight,I know!) At the same time, unless having ‘unloaded’ on one race (like the Irish National) I don’t like having 1/2 points on when there are 1 or 2 tips, generally. Every now and then, one of these goes in, and I like to be paid fully on that.
The horse…well, he has the ability to win this, if indeed he retains any! He is very well handicapped on his chase form, for a reason. But, he is a course and distance winner, he returns to fences after some time, this is his 5th run back after a long break (and as an older horse maybe it has taken him time to get into the grove -possibly clutching at straws there!) and a return to any of his old ability would see him stroll away with this. This is actually the trainer’s first chase runner under rules I believe, and she has got two wins to her name to date – she looks like she can train at least (to an extent) and I suspect all those in her yard are rather moderate and hard to win with.
This is a dart. He could be ridden after fence one and drop out of Wales, or he could get into a rhythm on the front end and never see another rival. In the end, I just couldn’t resist.
I have no idea how any punter can be overly confident on anything in here and why anyone would back (or ‘unload’)the top 3 at their current prices, given the questions that they all have. They are all generally out of form, most of them have something to prove, a few have yet to do it over fences. It really is a mediocre bunch where anyone of them ‘could’ win. In that context you either don’t play, or play one at tasty odds.
I suspect those in white coats will be circling outside my flat at around 2.50, but I just had to have a go!
That will be all for tips. The 3.25 Ffos Las does look to be between the top two, who have been well found in the market. If Kerry Lee can get Alfie Spinner to win this it would probably match her training performances over in Ireland in the last week. They are known for rekindling enthusiasm in horses and maybe he has enjoyed his strolls through the forests and streams that surround their yard.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.25 Ffos Las – Alfie Spinner WON 5/2>9/4
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(please remember that these are NOT tips. They are ‘ways in’ usually with some trainer based stats,pace or profile etc. I have a look at the horse and that is about it. No in-depth analysis etc and what you do with the info is up to you)
7.40 Chelmsford – Air of Astana – 7/1 – it looks like it could be wise just to back all of Hugo Palmer’s handicap debutants systematically – in the last year he is 6/18,12 places with such runners, +44 SP. He is 1/3,3 places with those runners here, and in the last 14 days is 1/4,4 places. 7/1 seems generous enough for this ‘could be anything’ type.
8.10 Chelmsford – Bionic Indian – 15/2 – 9/1 – goes for a trainer/jockey combo who are 5/13,7 places here when teaming up in handicaps. This is a shocker of a race, really really bad (as anyone with Geegeez Gold who clicks on the ‘instant expert tab’ will see) but he has placed a few times and you can put a line through that last run. Horses drawn 14 are 1/3,2 places over this trip (not sure on timeline) against those drawn 1-6 who are now 0/22, 2 places at the track, over 7f. Interesting.
8.40 Chelmsford – Trident Tested – 7/1 – goes for another trainer who looks to be developing a knack with handicap debutants. John Best is 3/10,5 places in last year, for +32 SP. He is 1/1 at this track. This horse steps up in trip which should suit, has been gelded and goes for a trainer in form, 2/8,3 places in last 30 days. It is clearly a race full of unexposed types but he looks interesting enough, if ready to go. The market should guide.
That is all for today.