Aintree Grand National Trends

AINTREE: THE Grand National 2016

This first profile looks at the last 5 renewals.(and having been through it,I may just leave it at that) 

This race has changed a lot I think in recent years and I am not sure as to the value of looking much before this.

I believe the handicapper uses his discretion more, ‘compressing the handicap’ (giving classier/higher weighted horses more of a chance??) Linked to this, as one you pointed out, is the fact the prize money pot is swelling – and an argument could be made that many more decent horses are targeted at this . 

There are also then the changes to the fences. I was all for these changes and every race I have watched over them since has still finished with horses strung out like the washing. Thankfully most fallers now get up, no problems at all. The fences still ‘look’ intimidating (esp first time around) and if you are a poor jumper you can still get found out. (although U suspect Pino D R may not have won over the old fences – he ‘walked through’ a couple)

Arguably they may go quicker (not evidence to back that up) which may also have some impact, albeit I am not sure what. (that was an enlightening comment!!) You definitely still need bucket loads of stamina.

I am sure back in the ‘old days’ you could cross off a chunk who were anywhere near the top of the weights and also French Breds – well, now you can’t cross of either.

Many Clouds was a trends buster last year on rating/weight from memory and with better horses lining up it could be that this is becoming a classier race – where horses near the top of the handicap may dominate. Still, it takes some horse to lug 11-8 or more over a trip like this.

The recent odds of winners – 14/1,33/1,66/1,25/1,25/1 (last years) – suggests it isn’t becoming any easier to find the winner.

There is arguably a case to just look at this like a ‘normal long distance handicap chase’ which I will do, as well as using a stats/trends profile. 

Let’s see what the stats throw up…

Last 5 renewals, 2011-

199 runners, 5 wins, 20 places

 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

5/5 Top 6 LTO

    • 7th or worse (completed): 0/36, 4 places
    • WON LTO: 0/36, 4 places
    • Fell: 0/5, 0 places
    • PU: 0/25, 1 place

Horse Age

  • 5/5 Aged 8-11
    • 7yo: 0/10, 0 places
    • 12+ : 0/23, 1 place
      • 8yo: 1/32, 2 places
      • 9yo: 0/51, 5 places
      • 10yo: 1/54, 6 places
      • 11yo: 3/29,6 places

Days Since Run

  • 5/5 ran 21-60 days ago
    • 1-20 days: 0/5,0 places
    • 61+ days: 0/42, 3 places

 

Horse Weight

Nothing overly significant…?…

  • 10-2 or less: 0/22, 1 place
  • 10-3-10-6: 2/55, 6 places
  • 10-7-10-13: 0/71, 8 places
  • 11-11-5: 1/28, 2 places
  • 11-6+ : 2/23, 3 places

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing overly significant, with winners rated OR 137 through to 16-
    • 157+ : 2/16, 3 places

Season Runs

  • 5/5 Had 3 or more runs this season
    • 0,1,2: 0/53, 3 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • Previous Run in THIS Race: 0/64, 8 places (2nd/3rd/4th last year all previous runners in race)
  • Yet to run over at least 25.5f: 0/26,2 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • 5/5 had WON over a minimum of 25f (3m1f)
    • Had NOT: 0/69, 3 places
    • Had WON over 3m5f or further: 0/39, 4 places

Position In Market

  • Nothing too significant. 4/5 were 11th or worse in market

Odds

  • Nothing too significant, winners at all odds really. Those over 66/1 SP are now 0/27, 0 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 0/27, 1 p
  • IRE: 3/129, 16 p
  • FR: 2/40, 3 p (French Breds ‘never’ used to win)

Headgear

  • Cheekpieces: 0/33, 2 places
  • Blinkers: 0/18, 0 places
  • Visor: 0/3, 0 places
  • NONE: 5/143, 18 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear Top: 0/5, 1p
  • Clear 2nd: 1/5, 1p
  • 3rd/4th: 1/8,1p
  • Bottom Weight (s): 0/16, 0 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 0: 0/19, 2 p
  • 1: 1/84,9 p
  • 2: 3/77,7 p
  • 3: 1/19,2 p

H – Run (career)

  • 5/5 had 19 or more career runs…
    • 0-18 career runs: 0/65, 4 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-2 handicap runs: 0/22, 0 places
  • 0-8 : 1/77, 6 places…20% winners…37% runners…30% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 0-9 chase runs: 0/41, 2 places
  • 24+ : 0/20, 0 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0-6: 1/85, 7 places…20% winners…43% runners…35% places

H- Run (track)

  • 0: 0/61, 5 places

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 5/5 had 0 or 1 run at Aintree over fences
    • 2+ chase runs here: 0/66, 4 places

H-Run (Fences) (very stiff, which is Cheltenham/Aintree GN/Haydock in HorseRaceBase)

  • 0: 0/29, 3 places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • Nothing significant

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 4/5 placed on at least one of last two starts.
    • 5/113, 17 places
      • DID NOT: 1/73, 3 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0-5 career wins: 0/99, 7 places…50% runners…35% places

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 0-2 chase wins: 0/46, 5 places
  • 7+ : 0/13,2 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 0 handicap wins: 0/43, 1 place
  • 5+ : 0/28, 4 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 5/5 1-3 handicap chase wins
    • 0 handicap chase wins: 0/54, 1 place
    • 4+: 0/29. 4 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 4/5 in top 2 at least once on last three starts

Class Move

  • Up 3 or more classes: 0/15. 1 p

Highest Class Run

  • G1: 3/126, 15 places
  • G2: 1/24,1 p
  • G3: 0/38, 3 p
  • Listed: 0/5, 0 p
  • C2: 1/5, 1 p

 

Highest Class Win

  • Yet to win above C3: 0/19, 0 places
  • G3: 0/38, 4 p.

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 0-5 places (incs wins) in all chase races: 0/60, 1 p
  • 12+ : 0/21, 1 place

H –Places (Hncp NH)

  • 0: 0/22, 0 places
  • 7+ : 0/30, 2 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 3/68, 5 places
  • Handicap: 2/130, 15 places

 (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • 5/5 ran in C1 or 2 LTO
    • C3 or below: 0/33, 1 place

(LR) Track

  • Chelt: 2/52, 7 places
  • Kelso: 2/9, 2 places
  • Haydock: 1/14, 2 places
  • Kempton: 0/7, 0 places
  • Fairyhouse: 0/12, 1 place
  • Doncaster: 0/14, 1 place
  • Ascot: 0/8, 2 places
  • Leop: 0/11, 1 place
  • Newbury: 0/12, 0 places

 

Location of Trainers

  • Ireland: 0/57, 4 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Nicholls; 1/15, 1 p
  • Sherwood: 1/1
  • Mrs S J Smith: 1/4, 1 p
  • Dr R Newland: 1/3, 1 p
  • D McCain: 1/10, 1 p
  • D Pipe: 0/10. 0 p
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/11, 2 p
  • Gordon Elliot: 0/6, 0 places
  • W Mullins: 0/12, 0 places
  • P Hobbs: 0/8, 1 place
  • N Henderson: 0/6, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE? 

  • Aged 8-11 (albeit cannot fully discount 7yo)
  • Ran 1-60 days ago
  • Weighted with 10-3 or more
  • 3 or more runs this season
  • Has WON over a minimum of 25f
  • 19 or more career runs
  • 3 or more runs in handicaps
  • 10-23 chase runs
  • Had RUN at Aintree at least once (all race types)
  • 0-1 chase runs here only (covers both fence types)
  • Had run over ‘very stiff’ fences (Aintree Grand National/Cheltenham/Haydock)
  • 6 or more career wins
  • 1-3 handicap chase wins
  • 6 -13 places in chases (which includes wins) in chases (no more than 6 places in handicap chases)
  • Ran in C1 or C2 LTO

 

Other points of note

  • Top 6 LTO
  • NOT PU LTO
  • Previous win over 3m5f or further a negative
  • GB Bred a negative in last 5 years
  • Any form of Headgear a negative to date
  • NOT bottom weight
  • 1+ run in last 90 days
  • Grade 3 being highest grade had won at or run at is a negative
  • Irish trained horses a poor record last 5 years

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

4 Comments

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  • Just looking at a few stats tonight on HRB for the last 19 races (obviously the nature of the race is changing but gives a nice comparison with the above) and have found the following:
    A prep run over hurdles seems a positive (6/69, 12 places LTO Hurdles and 13/661, 64 places LTO Chases)
    14/14 Winners who last ran in a UK races had all ran in a Class1 or Class 2. Of the 5 winners that raced in Ireland LTO it didnt matter(spread from Class 1 to Class 6 even). Of the last 6 winners 2 ran in the Premier Chase at Kelso, 2 ran in the Pretemps, 1 ran in the Gold Cup and 1 ran in the Grand National Trial Chase at Haydock
    19/19 Have won at least a Class 2; 11/19 Have won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2
    16/19 Winners were aged 9 to 11
    18/19 Winners had a top 3 finish in their last 3 runs
    19/19 Have won over at least 3m however only 2/19 have won over longer than 3m5.5f (pretty simular to the above)

    Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


    • top work Nick, cheers. I am half tempted to go through it all again for all 19 years, but then fear I may have stats overload and I am intrigued to see how the 5 year stats hold up – yours provide useful context and there are a few similarities.

      Josh Wright 10 months ago Reply


      • No worries mate. Given Ben Aitken has also released some trends as well I have had my first bet today on The Romford Pele after seeing a couple of winners from Curtis today. Fits most of the trends (both his and yours). Hasn’t ran at Aintree is the only minus and is likely to have Blinkers on although the actual stats on blinkers are 2/85 vs 17/577 without any headgear so isn’t as bad as other headgear which are 0/81. At 50/1 had to have 0.5pt e/w NRNB and BOG with B365.

        On a slightly different note, do you expect the bookie offers on the day to be as good as last year?

        Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


  • I backed Saint Are last year and dont think he ever got the credit he deserved but just dont see him getting that close again, I’ve had one bet so far Holywell at 16’s NRNB and like his Course form and that falling mark looks a classic JJO bandit effort….I’d hate to play golf with jonjo, you know he’d play like Jordan Speith off a handicap of 20 odd…

    Ian 10 months ago Reply


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