Ah. Krackatoa King ran a decent enough race, his jumping was indifferent at times but we beat the SP comfortably and if you take away TDC, he was the winner! 🙂 Nothing was beating TDC in that mood. I sound like a broken record but if you can consistently beat SP over time, your profits will only go one way. TDC – well I made the incorrect call on him,clearly – It was about whether the headgear worked (1st time cheekpieces) – and I probably didn’t think long enough about what would happen if they did – he is pretty much a Grade 3 handicapper,and he dismissed that lot with ease -which he was entitled to do at his best. With that thought process, 7s looks enticing,in hindsight. His last few runs were poor but he had the back class. I made the call not to take a chance at 7s – he won like an odds on shot. Annoying. A game of fine margins/decision making. That is one of the 7-8 bets in 10 that I get wrong. I hate not backing horses that win like that in that type of race. Clunker.
Still, I think that leaves us on just shy of +12 points for the month, and around +125 points for the year to date…
Finding the 25/1+ winner of the Irish Grand National will lift the mood though. Back in my ‘formative’ years when I was feeling my way and betting £2.5s I picked out Niche Market at 50/1+. I can’t remember why or how but it would be nice to repeat that again at some point…
BIG RACE PREVIEW (Tips)
Wrath of Titans – 1 point EW – 25/1 (5 places PP, 4 places Coral/WH) (now 20/1 general)
Kilford – 1 point EW – 28/1 (5 places Bet365) 25/1 (general,get 5 places if you can)
Killer Crow – 1/2 point win (12/1, general)
Ballyadam Approach – 1/2 point win (50/1 Bet365,Betfair S) 40/1 (general) *
(5 points total)
*prices as of 18.00, 27/03/16
Well there is a pretty solid stats/trends profile for this race and I am banking on it upholding again this year. If it is a year for stats busting, like at Uttoxeter the other day, then I won’t have found the winner.
A quick reminder of the profile I researched/have used…
THE WINNING PROFILE?
- Ran in last 90 days
- NOT Top 3 in weights
- 11-4 or below
- OR 142 or below
- 29 or fewer career runs
- 2-20 handicap runs (all handicaps)
- 3-13 Chase RUNS
- 8 or fewer handicap chase runs
- 1-8 career wins
- 1-4 chase wins
- Run at Listed Level or above (c1)
- 1-6 places in chases only (includes wins)
- Ran in race with 7 or more runners LTO
(that profile covers every winner in last 19 renewals, with the stats outside of those above all 0 from x. Ie, those that had not run at listed level or above are 0/30,2 places, those with 9 or more handicap chase runs are 0/65,13 places etc etc)
The profile in the trends post leaves a shortlist of 6. The four selections above plus Baie Des Iles and Captain Von Trappe. I will deal with them briefly – the former is only 5 and this is a tough ask, the first 5yo to try this I believe, certainly since 1997. I had a look at stats for chasers aged 5, running over 3m4f or further – they are 3/39,12 places since 1997. This one ran over a similar trip recently and to my eye didn’t quite get home. Captain Von Trappe wears blinkers here and such horses are 0/42,3 places in this race. Restricted vision with this headgear in a field of 29 or so may not be the best policy. He also looks a bit out of form and I think his jockey is a bit down the pecking order for these owners/trainer. He has ‘the profile’ though, so clearly I won’t be shocked if he went in, just depressed,for quite some time, that I didn’t tip him! (famous last words)
Wrath of Titans – this one has been tipped by Ben Linfoot in the SportingLife which probably explains the line of blue on Oddschecker (denoting it is being backed). He fits the profile for this and is a half brother to last year’s winner, also trained my Sandra Hughes. Her string are in form and he could have any amount up his sleeve. The cheekpieces return here which may help. He has been running ok and looks likely, on paper/running style at least, to relish every yard of this trip. He is a prominent racer which is never a bad thing in general, and certainly not in a race of this nature. He will like the slightly better ground also and at the odds I had to have a dart. The jockey booking is a slight concern, albeit I am not going to try and second guess bookings etc – I do know that Cooper hasn’t ridden below 10-1 in last 12 months, and it looks like he can’t do the weight, which means he was never an option. There may not be many that can waste down to this level. AP Crowe is clearly one of them.
Kilford – well he has done nothing wrong and is another with a perfect profile for this. He is in the form of his life, has a top jockey booked which caught the eye, and is still open to improvement, this being the 14th run of his life – despite being a 10yo. I think he is better LH but has won this way round and he does like to bowl along in front. If gets into a rhythm on or near the front end he looks sure to out-run these odds. His sire caught my eye also – Snurge – who has produced a few horses that stay all day, including Kerry Lee’s Incentivise. (is she becoming the best trainer of chasers in the land? quite possibly and she will only be sent better and better ammunition, which is exciting – Gold Cups and Grand Nationals await in the future I suspect) So, this trip could unlock further improvement and he also has form on this ground. 28s/25s felt rather big here.
Killer Crow – I have a stamina niggle over this one, but given connections and his place on the shortlist, I wanted to have something on. He, like the final selection, has no win over 22f or further – those types are 1/98,14 places – so, it is possible, but I have my doubts looking at him. I may be wrong though, hence the 1/2 point.
BallyAdam Approach – well the same applies to him but he is 50/40-1. Can you imagine if he won, having been on a shortlist of 6, and gone un-backed/tipped. That would be excruciating, hence the support! I can’t say for sure that he won’t stay, given this is the first crack at anywhere near this trip. Worth a small nibble I think.
The rest, for one or more reasons, fall down on the stats I have used. Over time I have confidence in this profile and over time should ensure we do ok in this race – it may not be today but it is a pretty hard puzzle if I ignored the stats. Given the strength of some of the stats I found it hard to ignore them. If you fancy something else you can check the ‘winning profile’ as to why I crossed them off my list. Another Hero is interesting for Jonjo – he is 2/7,4 places in the race which is arguably enough by itself to support him. Those yet to run at Listed level or above are 0/30,2 places in this. Horses that ran in C3 LTO are now 0/58 also. Clearly a case could be made for plenty more, and this year, I may not have mentioned the winner. But, fingers crossed those 4 give us something to shout about. The main two should be up there from the off, and as I said, if getting into a rhythm, should be thereabouts come the finish.
That will be all for tips. There is a lot of gaff racing tomorrow that I don’t have the time/inclination to analyse. I will have a look at a couple of the low grade sprint handicaps at Redcar – just to warm up the eyes for those type of races – but I won’t be tipping in them.(and I think I will generally try and stick to C3 and above,but we shall see) Geegeez Gold has a new draw tool as well that I should start to get used to – that, combined with pace analysis,speed figures,HRB ‘profiler tool’, should provide us with plenty of fun over the coming months.
4.30 Hunt – Red Hammer (12/1<)
2.25 MR – Coozan George (12/1<) /Take A Break (12/1<)
3.05 Plum – Laughton Park (20/1<)
4.40 Chep – Wyck Hill (14/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catching the eye today.
That is all for today.