Members Report: 28/03/16 (COMPLETE)

Ah. Krackatoa King ran a decent enough race, his jumping was indifferent at times but we beat the SP comfortably and if you take away TDC, he was the winner! 🙂 Nothing was beating TDC in that mood. I sound like a broken record but if you can consistently beat SP over time, your profits will only go one way. TDC – well I made the incorrect call on him,clearly – It was about whether the headgear worked (1st time cheekpieces) – and I probably didn’t think long enough about what would happen if they did – he is pretty much a Grade 3 handicapper,and he dismissed that lot with ease -which he was entitled to do at his best. With that thought process, 7s looks enticing,in hindsight. His last few runs were poor but he had the back class. I made the call not to take a chance at 7s – he won like an odds on shot. Annoying. A game of fine margins/decision making. That is one of the 7-8 bets in 10 that I get wrong.  I hate not backing horses that win like that in that type of race. Clunker. 

Still, I think that leaves us on just shy of +12 points for the month, and around +125 points for the year to date…

Finding the 25/1+ winner of the Irish Grand National will lift the mood though. Back in my ‘formative’ years when I was feeling my way and betting £2.5s I picked out Niche Market at 50/1+. I can’t remember why or how but it would be nice to repeat that again at some point…

***

BIG RACE PREVIEW (Tips)

5.00 Fairyhouse 

Wrath of Titans – 1 point EW – 25/1 (5 places PP, 4 places Coral/WH) (now 20/1 general) 

Kilford – 1 point EW – 28/1 (5 places Bet365) 25/1 (general,get 5 places if you can) 

Killer Crow – 1/2 point win (12/1, general) 

Ballyadam Approach – 1/2 point win (50/1 Bet365,Betfair S) 40/1 (general) *

(5 points total) 

***

*prices as of 18.00, 27/03/16

Well there is a pretty solid stats/trends profile for this race and I am banking on it upholding again this year. If it is a year for stats busting, like at Uttoxeter the other day, then I won’t have found the winner. 

A quick reminder of the profile I researched/have used…

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • Ran in last 90 days
  • NOT Top 3 in weights
  • 11-4 or below
  • OR 142 or below
  • 29 or fewer career runs
  • 2-20 handicap runs (all handicaps)
  • 3-13 Chase RUNS
  • 8 or fewer handicap chase runs
  • 1-8 career wins
  • 1-4 chase wins
  • Run at Listed Level or above (c1)
  • 1-6 places in chases only (includes wins)
  • Ran in race with 7 or more runners LTO

(that profile covers every winner in last 19 renewals, with the stats outside of those above all 0 from x. Ie, those that had not run at listed level or above are 0/30,2 places, those with 9 or more handicap chase runs are 0/65,13 places etc etc) 

The profile in the trends post leaves a shortlist of 6. The four selections above plus Baie Des Iles and Captain Von Trappe. I will deal with them briefly – the former is only 5 and this is a tough ask, the first 5yo to try this I believe, certainly since 1997. I had a look at stats for chasers aged 5, running over 3m4f or further – they are 3/39,12 places since 1997. This one ran over a similar trip recently and to my eye didn’t quite get home. Captain Von Trappe wears blinkers here and such horses are 0/42,3 places in this race. Restricted vision with this headgear in a field of 29 or so may not be the best policy. He also looks a bit out of form and I think his jockey is a bit down the pecking order for these owners/trainer. He has ‘the profile’ though, so clearly I won’t be shocked if he went in, just depressed,for quite some time, that I didn’t tip him! (famous last words) 

Wrath of Titans – this one has been tipped by Ben Linfoot in the SportingLife which probably explains the line of blue on Oddschecker (denoting it is being backed). He fits the profile for this and is a half brother to last year’s winner, also trained my Sandra Hughes. Her string are in form and he could have any amount up his sleeve. The cheekpieces return here which may help. He has been running ok and looks likely, on paper/running style at least, to relish every yard of this trip. He is a prominent racer which is never a bad thing in general, and certainly not in a race of this nature. He will like the slightly better ground also and at the odds I had to have a dart. The jockey booking is a slight concern, albeit I am not going to try and second guess bookings etc – I do know that Cooper hasn’t ridden below 10-1 in last 12 months, and it looks like he can’t do the weight, which means he was never an option. There may not be many that can waste down to this level. AP Crowe is clearly one of them. 

Kilford – well he has done nothing wrong and is another with a perfect profile for this. He is in the form of his life, has a top jockey booked which caught the eye, and is still open to improvement, this being the 14th run of his life – despite being a 10yo. I think he is better LH but has won this way round and he does like to bowl along in front. If gets into a rhythm on or near the front end he looks sure to out-run these odds. His sire caught my eye also – Snurge – who has produced a few horses that stay all day, including Kerry Lee’s Incentivise.  (is she becoming the best trainer of chasers in the land? quite possibly and she will only be sent better and better ammunition, which is exciting – Gold Cups and Grand Nationals await in the future I suspect) So, this trip could unlock further improvement and he also has form on this ground. 28s/25s felt rather big here. 

Killer Crow – I have a stamina niggle over this one, but given connections and his place on the shortlist, I wanted to have something on. He, like the final selection, has no win over 22f or further – those types are 1/98,14 places – so, it is possible, but I have my doubts looking at him. I may be wrong though, hence the 1/2 point. 

BallyAdam Approach – well the same applies to him but he is 50/40-1. Can you imagine if he won, having been on a shortlist of 6, and gone un-backed/tipped. That would be excruciating, hence the support! I can’t say for sure that he won’t stay, given this is the first crack at anywhere near this trip. Worth a small nibble I think. 

***

The rest, for one or more reasons, fall down on the stats I have used. Over time I have confidence in this profile and over time should ensure we do ok in this race – it may not be today but it is a pretty hard puzzle if I ignored the stats. Given the strength of some of the stats I found it hard to ignore them. If you fancy something else you can check the ‘winning profile’ as to why I crossed them off my list. Another Hero is interesting for Jonjo – he is 2/7,4 places in the race which is arguably enough by itself to support him. Those yet to run at Listed level or above are 0/30,2 places in this. Horses that ran in C3 LTO are now 0/58 also. Clearly a case could be made for plenty more, and this year, I may not have mentioned the winner. But, fingers crossed those 4 give us something to shout about. The main two should be up there from the off, and as I said, if getting into a rhythm, should be thereabouts come the finish.

Good Luck.

**

That will be all for tips. There is a lot of gaff racing tomorrow that I don’t have the time/inclination to analyse. I will have a look at a couple of the low grade sprint handicaps at Redcar – just to warm up the eyes for those type of races – but I won’t be tipping in them.(and I think I will generally try and stick to C3 and above,but we shall see)  Geegeez Gold has a new draw tool as well that I should start to get used to – that, combined with pace analysis,speed figures,HRB ‘profiler tool’, should provide us with plenty of fun over the coming months. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

March Trainers

4.30 Hunt – Red Hammer (12/1<) 

Jumps Handicappers

2.25 MR – Coozan George (12/1<) /Take A Break (12/1<) 

3.05 Plum – Laughton Park (20/1<) 

4.40 Chep – Wyck Hill (14/1<) 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST  

Nothing catching the eye today. 

***

That is all for today. 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

31 Comments

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  • thoughts from IRE about KILLER CROW
    Though not sure stamina to last out this trip his previous race second behind Empire of dirt reads well and looked like he kept a bit up his sleeve as when beaten it was not a throw the kitchen sink at it ride and the horse has a lovely racing weight (10-6) and the very talented Jack kennedy Claims 3lb in which looks a good booking by Gold Cup winning trainer Gordon Elliott

    Pab 11 months ago Reply


  • rather like Tulsa jack in this race any thoughts on it josh its off a light weight won over 28f extra furlong shouldn’t be a problem lots of pace in the race should suit an hold up horse and looks to me been laid out for race having a run 8 days ago first since November thought 33/1 well worth a go bet 365 paddy power paying 5 places

    antony church 11 months ago Reply


    • Well if looking at just the horse you could probably make some sort of case for most of them in here. It is tricky. Stats wise he has had more than 8 handicap chase runs, those types now 0/94,15 places. But,one of these stats will probably get broken,and maybe it is him. Looks like he stays,still lightly raced enough etc etc.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


    • Tulsa Jack made my shortlist, as did Futuramic who holds Tulsa on the formbook, but i think the rain has scuppered Futuramic’s chances

      Venetien de mai also got through my stats so he is my short-price shout. up 14lb from wins over Futuramic but looks good value for it

      Ali 11 months ago Reply


  • Josh, good luck with the national selections tomorrow, followed you in on your 4 selections but also had to have a saver on the JJ horse should it be a stats buster race akin to when Shutthefrontdoor won a couple years back (going on HRB stats qualifiers).
    Sentiment your comments regarding the gaff racing tomorrow but would appreciate yours and other readers comments on the 4.40 at Chepstow. I thought Seebright looked a big price at 16/1. Odds seem to be based on the PU letters of his last two runs but seems to have conditions to suit, in fact a sea of green using geegeez instant expert if Chepstow encounters soft ground with storm Katie expecting to hit. 4lb below its last win mark with the capable Gethings taking off a further 5lb should only help.
    Berea Boru and chase the spud head the market, but the former is in a much better race here although has been impressive last two runs. Chase the Spud doesn’t seem to be the most consistent and seemed to have things his own way last time at Exeter in effectively a two horse race as the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited masters of the hill and an out of form Easter Day. 16’s seems a generous price to nick a place at least if anywhere back to his 14 form. Hopefully at least 8 run for 3 places as I guess TDS will be a NR.

    leon 11 months ago Reply


    • Yep I did flick through that race but after National I didn’t have energy and knew I wouldnt have loads of time in morning to go through. I will have a look,as I tipped him at Kempton. Echo your sentiments and Dartnal in a bit of form now. Can overlook plenty at those odds. PU was after monster break,could have bounced next time or still be working way back. Would like to see money for him to enhance any confidence and he bumps into a few in form rivals. He is versatile ground wise. Just asking him to recapture old form,which if he did would make 16s look silly.
      JJ’s (the Dreaper horse?) has a decent profile for race just falling down on fact he hasn’t had at least 2 handicap runs. Felt he was short enough also

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


    • There is something with odds at Chep maybe will be canceled
      tif 18/1 worth to try
      Minela looks good to me
      i think we will see difrent prcices in most of races tmorrow
      I will give chance to Rusel Blanc if odds will be above 33/1

      Pab 11 months ago Reply


      • Yeah I think ground is too fast but couldnt stop myself having 0.25pt ew on Russe Blanc since would kick myself if he came in.

        Nick Mazur 11 months ago Reply


  • I fear Storm Katie may be the winner over many of the UK fixtures, we will have to wait and see as very strong winds and more snow than rain right here now in the Midlands.

    Interesting angle Josh on the Irish National and thanks very much for the e-mail in response to the other main tipster tips Irish selection that I sent to you…I will perm selections from both for a bit of fun and it will be most interesting to see who prevails….in the nicest possible way as Harry Hill would say “fight”….LOL….having considered both angles, I have a hunch you will prevail as the trends (the other ignores) are very compelling…and I think your logic is sounder…Good Luck all…

    Ian 11 months ago Reply


  • The stats will work out more often than not and beating SP is a surefire way to win long term. Goodonya Josh.

    jack finn 11 months ago Reply


  • Something you and your fans may find useful to know. I have been following another longshot tipster since the beginning of the year and have used the following method with success. I place my bets at about 9am and set a stop loss at 50% higher. ( 24.0 to 36.0 e.g) and if it hits that mark either pre or during the race it cuts my losses by 2/3. So far, no horse had triggered the S/L and won. Since following you I have used the same procedure with success. Occasionally in the run it misses the S/L but most times in NH races it triggers.

    jack finn 11 months ago Reply


    • Thanks Jack, that is interesting, glad that approach is working for you.

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Unfortunately Seebright is a NR again, and the race has been decimated due to change in going…will be going in my tracker though I think.
    I’ve also backed Another Hero, think he falls down on highest class run and handicap chase runs. I guess his inexperience may tell but had to have a saver on him given jonjos record in the race and ability to prime a horse for such a race. Minella Rocco gave me nightmares at Cheltenham as I backed him for the 3 miler on the first day without the NRNB concession and didn’t back him when entered in the 4 miler, so I couldn’t let this one go without a bit of my hard earned on.
    Good luck everyone today.

    leon 11 months ago Reply


  • Josh what stats does Mala beach fall down on plz?

    Jon Churcher 11 months ago Reply


    • Carries 11-5 or more (11-8) – 0/33,4 places, rated OR 143 or above (150) 0/38,1 place, he is in the Top 3 in the weights… 0/64, 9 places, only 1 handicap run to his name, 0-1 are 0/65,13 places

      I think that is it! Stats are there to be broken mind, he may well bolt up! 🙂

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • oh curses!!! took 25s no Wrath of Titan with hills, not realising ew terms 4 places

    cue a touched-off 4th finish

    Ali 11 months ago Reply


    • We won’t be worrying about 5th when he bolts up 🙂

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


      • ideal scenario! cant deny that didnt cross my mind too

        Ali 11 months ago Reply


        • I am always picturing the ideal scenario, without positive thinking we have very little else!

          Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • have got money on wyck hill. travelled eye-catchingly well in the eider until the home straight and eased in the weights whilst the others are going up

    stable could be doing better though

    Ali 11 months ago Reply


  • 5.00 Fairyhouse
    fot fun bets
    FUTURAMIC ew
    MY MURPHY ew/win
    VENITIEN DE MAI win

    Pab 11 months ago Reply


  • I’m having a half point saver on Baie Des Iles just because it’s on the shortlist and there”s five place to aim at lol

    James b 11 months ago Reply


    • Yea I may have thrown a 1/4 point (£5 for me) at both of those, just in case!!

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Sandra Hughes is certainly one to keep on the right side of things, she doing doing very well at the min since taking over from her dad.

    She said she is happy with all three of her runners:
    “Wrath Of Titans is ground-dependent – we wouldn’t want too much rain for him. If the ground is good he could run a fair race.” No rain, so positive sign.

    Sub Lieutenant Sub Lieutenant won his Graded race well the last day and we think he’ll stay.
    “Everything has to go his way, which is not ideal in a race like the Irish National, but he’s in good form and if he gets the breaks he could run well. – potential stamina concerns although mark at Bet alchemist pointed out that Bryan Cooper has chosen him over the other 7 gigginstown runners. Big weight at 11-3 but fits your weight trends profile. I’ll have a small saver on him.

    Thunder & Roses – she said that he comes into his own at this time of year. Blinkered today as his form has been in and out.

    Good luck with whoever you are on.

    All the beat

    Eamon

    Eamon 11 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Eamon,yep glad rain has stayed away for WoTs chances, wont be an excuse on that front. Cooper angle is interesting – I am not sure he could have ridden WoT even if he had wanted to – according to RP, lowest racing weight in last 12 months is 10-1, WoT runs off 9-13 – not sure if he can do that weight or not – in any case, he had the choice of the rest!
      GL, we will all need plenty!

      Josh Wright 11 months ago Reply


  • Russe Blanc 25/1 for Kerry Lee is my other EW shout.

    Eamon 11 months ago Reply


  • You were right about the trends just the wrong one mate. All about the number 8 today. Thanks for Ballydam Approach. Paid for the rest with a squeak of profit.

    Nick Mazur 11 months ago Reply


  • oh well, at least we’re knee-deep in Easter eggs to take the edge off that hit

    Ali 11 months ago Reply


  • excellent place josh well done, that won the battle of the tipsters (that I have) for you, great ride on the winner and what a brave horse, very inconsistent mind and not sure how he fitted in with the trends, I think the lack of the expected rain confused more than a few…have to say the proximity of bless the wings and folsom blue mark it down as a very poor renewal though.

    Ian 11 months ago Reply


  • Yeah close but no cigar as Ballyadam was advised win only. No worries, not the easiest of races to call to be fair!

    Richard 11 months ago Reply


  • Small loss for backing Baie Des Iles that’l teach me lol another day and thathe could have been the winner! Nice with the 50/1 shot Josh cheers!

    James b 11 months ago Reply


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