Members Report: 24/03/16 (COMPLETE)

*** IRISH GRAND NATIONAL*** Trends/Stats profile is complete. Just click ‘Blog’ at top, first post at top on left hand side. 

 

***

It certainly was a case of ‘Mission Complete’ yesterday as he dismissed his rivals with a relative amount of ease. To my eye it was clear after about 3 fences he looked likely to go close and if on song he was entitled to dismiss that mediocre bunch, even in his advancing years. It will be interesting where they send him next. Equally it was also clear after about 3 fences that Handsome Buddy wasn’t going to give us any excitement. But, we got the value, and if you can back 20/1 shots at 10/1 regularly, your bank balance will only go one way – over time. (would appear the ground may have been that ‘sticky’ type of Good, which you can get at this time of year – may explain his lackluster effort- MC meanwhile is versatile – so, no idea what that ground was like then!!) 

I make no apology for saying I am more comfortable with jumpers when the mud is flying,(never got the argument that Heavy ground makes it tough/form unreliable etc) as results this year would show- but I am pleased that my ‘good ground eyes’ are starting to work. There was a 10p R4 so I think that left nearly +4.5 points profit on the race, putting us +5 points up for March. I will be trying my best to add to that in the next 7 days or so. 

Fine Parchment – the old boy ran a cracker and looked the winner until the last 100 yards, agonising for him and my bank balance. A cracking ride and effort from the horse. There is still life in him yet and maybe they can find another veteran’s chase for him – an easy lead, and a stiffer finish may help, in sense that would make it harder for those behind to close. He jumped really well here. 

I am planning to get the Irish National stats/trends profile up today, so do look out for that. And my new Flat guide is coming along nicely – you are going to really enjoy using that! 🙂 (biased, clearly!) 

Onto today… 

TIPS

 3.50 Chepstow 

Silver Eagle – 1 point win – 11/4 (general)* UP 9/4

*price available as of 9am. 

Its rare for me to venture to this end of the market – sound the ‘favourite klaxon’ – and in truth my record when I do so is patchy. When I tip them they bomb out, when I ignore/leave them they romp to victory. 

But, having looked at this I had it between this one and the one that is now a non runner. They all have questions to answer but the rest have many more than the selection for me. 

Silver Eagle – Firstly he clearly has ability. He won a 3m novice hurdle so I don’t think we will be found wanting for stamina. He was rated OR130 at one time in that sphere and he runs off 105 with the claim. If he can recapture any of that ability and transfer it to fences he would win this comfortably – and I think he will – IF he responds to the headgear – I think the cheekpieces need to work but he has gone off a relatively short price the last twice, so connections clearly expect better at some point. Also, he is by Presenting so should love the ground – he would have hated Heavy LTO I suspect. The ground here is good/good to firm in places and some showers are expected – making it good to soft at worse – that is fine, if it is softer than that come his race, then I doubt he will be winning. So, some slight risks. His run 2 starts ago was after a very long break and he was never really traveling. But, as I said he does have ability, and this is only the 12th start of his life. Bailey is also in form and has a great record here – 5/20,8 places all runners last 730 days, 2/7,3 places with chasers. 

Now, he has a few questions to answer but the rest have many more. Indeed, if he doesn’t win I am struggling to work out what will – it will be a by default victory. Cruchain is 13 and is 0/9,1 place beyond 2m6.5f – he has major stamina doubts, esp over a track like this – and he is 13! Mountain of Mourne – he is unexposed in this sphere I suppose, but has been out of form and mainly kept to soft/heavy – all wins on Heavy – 2/6,3 places – so good ground is also a concern. Long John – unexposed enough over fences, but his wins have been in the mud also, and over shorter trips – 0/6,1 place on Good/Good-Soft. He has had three hard races now and he also has stamina to prove. Saint Breeze – 0/8,2 places chasing, he is 10,has yet to win beyond 16f (0/15,3 places beyond that), is 0/5 left handed and has a liking for this ground to prove. Captain Flash is unexposed but fell on his first chase start- never a good sign – he is in the could be anything category though so maybe not a shock winner – I was put off by fact his trainer is 0/21,4 places with all chase runners in last 730 days. Stamina is also a big Q and his breeding wouldn’t offer much hope on that front. 

So, in the context of what the selection could be, and the weakness of the opposition, I thought 11/4 offered a shade of value. I expect he may go off shorter than this when everyone else has has a look at  the oppo. IF it is clear he is jumping/traveling early, then I think it will be a case of count your winnings.If Bailey can’t win this chase with him, then I don’t know where they go next. We shall see though – am whisking the egg as I speak! 

That is all for tips. 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jumps Handicappers 

3.05 Lud – Take  A Break (12/1<) DNQ 14/1

Other 

Tom George Chasers: 3.05 Lud – Storming Strumpet (any odds) UP

H Fry Mares: 2.05 Chep – Ivors Queen (10/1< guide) UP

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.40 Chepstow – One Cool Scorpion 7/1  NR- Present Times 14/1 Fell- both of these look interesting. The former goes for Hobbs who is 2/9,5 places with his handicap hurdle debutants at the track – this one gets decent ground and steps back up in trip – two changes that may, or may not, make a difference. The latter qualifies for the Williams/Moloney micro a researched a few weeks ago (I only post qualifiers in micro systems section for their Saturday angle which is similar). No odds cap on this micro and over time it has been very profitable. Williams 1/6,1 place with handicap hurdle debutants here. 

5.40 Wolvs- Flinty Fell – 7/2 – A shorter priced one but Ed Dunlops recent form caught the eye – 5/7,6 places in last 14 days. I don’t think he is known for his first time out winners so this one could come on a bundle for the experience, where he ran well. He also has one of the main men in the saddle.

***

That is all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • interesting Tom George angle that Brennan prefers Parsnip Pete in the 4.15 and ST-D rides Noche De Reyes…a canny small reverse forecast me thinks.

    will be going to Ludlow today, hope ground wont be as sticky as Warwick yesterday, was described as “good” but was more like evostick I’ say; crusty on top but deceptively soft underneath, might explain why in many races they were strung out all over Warwickshire….sad to see Robin Dickin lose a great old veteran…

    Mind you Ludlow usually drains better than Warwick and another track where by parking in the middle you can have a poke around to see what ground is really like…

    Ian 24/03/16 8:24 AM Reply


    • Good Luck Ian – ah interesting on the ground – that type of ‘good’ that some get and some don’t! That would maybe explain why Handsome Buddy never looked comfortable. Whereas Mission Complete is versatile ground wise – and fact it was hard work may be why Nail M got so close also! Ground eh, what a mystery! (that type of ‘good’ is probably the worst kind of going, analysis wise)

      Yep, never nice to see that happen – but, at least he had a long racing life and would have been looked after like a King for a good 12 years.

      Josh Wright 24/03/16 8:32 AM Reply


      • maybe we need the Going description the Irish use “yielding”….or maybe we should invent a new one “pudding”…

        Ian 24/03/16 9:35 AM Reply


    • Have a look at Keel Haul, back on good going.

      Chris 24/03/16 8:55 AM Reply


      • Yep he is interesting at a price I suppose, I wont put you off – his Cheltenham win is obviously decent, but he did benefit from a really hard run race there and seemed to need that hill. I would be concerned whether he may have the pace to aim at here, in this flatter track – this looks a rather open race, with nearly all of them proven on good,in the class, track, distance – could come down to tactics. He has also been really poor the last twice, and given he has won on soft, and they change headgear, I am reluctant to blame that all on the going – but it may have been. He is a decent price. Trainer also gone a tad quiet, 0/13 last 14 days, 2/27 last 30. Money is usually, but not always, a good sign from this yard – anecdotal memory, rather than stats to back that up!

        Josh Wright 24/03/16 9:49 AM Reply


        • Yeah I am on Keel Haul. Not really sure why the market drift. Amazed Parsnip Pete was getting backed when he has yet to even place in 7 handicap starts going right handed. Was one of the first ones I crossed off the list.

          Nick Mazur 24/03/16 12:37 PM Reply


    • I was also on Parsnip Pete but n/r now! Shame!

      If you’re on Storming Strumpet in the 3.05, however, the stats will make pleasant reading:

      George-Brennan
      Hcp chase
      Ludlow

      29 runs, 12 wins, 23 placed

      That’s nearly 80% hitting the frame!

      Ali 24/03/16 11:05 AM Reply


      • will be interesting if TG jocks ST-D off the other horse and puts Brennan on that, looking at stats he can do the weight OK…

        Ian 24/03/16 11:18 AM Reply


        • was thinking the same thing. tough opposition though in that one

          Ali 24/03/16 11:24 AM Reply


  • Just got home and saw result of 4.15,argh didn’t know parsnip pete was non runner and paddy was on other George horse

    gerry 24/03/16 5:07 PM Reply


    • Yep, rather annoying system wise as that made him a selection as well, but wont record him as such. Thankfully that doesnt happen too often.

      Josh Wright 24/03/16 5:11 PM Reply


Post A Reply