Members Report: 22/03/16 (COMPLETE)

Stop The Press! A Stats/Angles of Interest horse won! I know, I could barely believe it myself 🙂 A nice win for My Brother Silvest 11/2>9/1>7/1 SP. He got to the front as hoped, jumped well, and out-battled the runner up, showing a winning attitude. Hopefully some of you may have looked at the race and had a go. As always, horses in that section are not tips. They usually have a stats/profile/pace ‘way in’ and then I leave the rest to you. I look at the horse, but not the oppo. In time I hope that section becomes profitable to back blind, but in that sense it is still a test. I am confident that it may come into its own during the flat season though. The systems wiped their face, thanks again to a Nicky Henderson winner. 

The ‘Weekly Diary’ Post is getting there, I want to add some eye-catchers in from last week but as yet haven’t got round to going back through the videos. I will attempt to do this in the morning. Results and some reflections on last week are up on the post – plus an interesting comment or two 🙂 

Anyway…

TIPS 

4.10 Exeter

Just A Par – 1 point win – 12/1 (BV/Lad/Coral/WH) 2nd 

Azure Fly – 1 point win – 12/1 (BV,Coral/BFs) 11/1 (bet365) UP

(PP money back if 2nd to SP fav in this race,but don’t think their odds compilers have started work yet…)

This is an open race – one of those where any of them could win (well,bar Wilton Milan I think,but we probably know what will happen now! 🙂 ) In that scenario it is probably a race to leave alone, but, well, I just cant help myself.

Just A Par – this very much depends on what Just A Par turns up. At his best, this former G2 winner and RSA 7th would pick these up and carry them over the line. It is knowing the ability is there, in what is a weak C2, that meant I had to have a go at 12s. I don’t know if this is a prep for another go at the Sandown race he won last year. They remove the blinkers here which adds to the puzzle – it could be that he will be pleased they are off and run better than in the autumn. It could be that after 1 fence we were wishing they were on. He takes some rousting and cajoling if he is in one of his moods. But, there is only one letter in his formline so we should at least be able to go through the race hoping! The break doesn’t concern me given the trainer, who is also in some decent enough form, and I don’t think there is anything in jockey bookings – given Bowen’s relationship with the horse I doubt STD had the choice – but I could be wrong. This will only be his 15th chase start also. All race conditions are fine. It is just whether he travels. I had to take a chance at 12s, and we may know our fate early on.

Azure Fly – He needs good ground to show his best and this will only be his 13th chase start. Three starts ago he ran really well at Cheltenham, where but for a bad blunder at the top of the hill, may have been right in the mix come the finish. I will put the last run down to the going. He has a brilliant record when running fresh and has yet to prove he can’t run up to this level. That Cheltenham race, where he was only beaten 5l or so, was as deep, if not deeper, than this. A repeat of that Ludlow run would see him right in the mix here for me, and as such a double figure price looked too tempting. He may also be a bit of a character, I am not sure – but the price allows the chance. Hopefully it is clear after the first few fences that he is travelling. 

Of the rest…

I am happy to take on the Fav at his short price. He is unexposed and in the ‘could be anything’ category and maybe he will take this. But, that last run wasn’t the most convincing for me. He had plenty of time to close the winner over CD and was rather one paced. He definitely looked like he was still learning and maybe today is when he steps up. But, I am happy to take him on. Bertie Boru – well he was in my shortlist of three – with a clear round he could win this – which probably means at 8/1 I will have a saver on. There is some pace in this and my fear was, being a hold up horse, he might get a bit detached – meaning he may have to pick up speed to close, which wont help his jumping. Bar the same fence LTO he actually jumped ok, and this jockey gets on with him well. He looked to be running with zest LTO and if in the same form here, he could go close.

I am happy to take on the rest at the prices. Nicholls other horse is a tricky one, but like most in here hasn’t got many miles on the clock. I am yet to be convinced he will truly stay this trip and he can be a bit of a ‘thinker’. Others have stronger chase form. Drop Out Joe is interesting – maybe he didn’t handle the ground LTO (which may have been that strange gluey type that some go on,and many dont) but that was a really poor run. He was well backed there and has a decent record after a break. And he won on soft at Wincanton. So, it was a dilemma, but I decided to leave him. Godsmejudge really needs the headgear to work – even if it does I am sure he needs further and I haven’t been convinced by him yet this season. 5s was short enough in that context, albeit I would like him to show some more life at some point. (his second two starts ago was deceptive for me) Wilton Milan has stamina questions, class questions, and generally quite a few questions. The yard are in great nick, the only positive, but I would like to think these are too good for him.

PACE – Drop Out Joe likes to get on with it, and a few like to press the pace – GodsMJ, Three Faces West,Azure Fly – those four should ensure it isn’t a crawl, which may help Just A Par, depending on his mood.

A tricky race, and these two could bomb out as well as storm to victory,(that happens more often than not, given the average price of horses I tip is 11/1) but at the odds I had to have a go. Hopefully I don’t regret crossing Bertie off last either.

That is all for ‘tipping‘.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers 

2.45 Weth – Bertie Lugg (14/1<) UP

4.20 Weth – Weapon of Choice (12/1<) UP

4.55 Weth – Gold Ingot (12/1<) 2nd 8/1 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Remember, these are not tips, just ‘ways in’ that you may find useful in your own analysis. I look at the ‘way in’ and the horse, and that is it. I do not analyse the races in depth…

 2.20 South – Very First Blade – 8/1 – UP- Trainer/Jockey are 3/7,5 places for +70 points when teaming up here. This one ran in a seller LTO, which could be interesting in itself. He has course and distance form and has dropped a pound or two. Clearly there are a few above him that are expected to go better, but he has been nibbled at. Some of you All-Weather bettors may know whether he is drawn well or not in box two over that trip – I think it may be better to be stand-side but am not sure. 

4.40 Exeter – So Oscar – 14/1 – UP- Trainer/Jockey are 4/13 when teaming up here. This one is interesting in a weak race. It is the step up in trip, on decent ground, which catches the eye. He is doing a few things different and given he won a bumper at Towcester it would suggest there is some stamina in the locker somewhere. The trainer is also in brilliant form at the moment. He looks like he has been tricky to train and it would be nice to see him nibbled at in the market. 

***

That is all for today, 

Good Luck

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    I have a few of the same micro angles as yourself and to be honest, its very much a question of feast or famine with most of them. Because ‘form’ as such doesn’t really enter into the equation a lot of times the systems throw up selections that I would never actually bet on if I was doing a traditional analysis of the race. I don’t know if you have read any of Peter May’s books but he is a firm believer that enough ‘churn’ i.e. many selections a day across a portfolio of systems, can throw up enough winners to cover the multitude of losers from that approach. I know people who have 200+ micro systems across all codes but I currently use 78 (including Irish Racing ) and even then there are only 4 qualifiers tomorrow! Most of my systems have a strike rate of 18-25% but you tend to find clusters of winners rather than a nice even spread throughout the season which leads to some horrible losing runs. My worst this year is 33, and in 2015 I had losing runs of 36 and 32(twice) but overall I made 440 points profit. i really believe that you have to learn to lose before you can win at this game and as long as you have a proper bankroll and use sensible staking you can do very well.

    Steve Veasey 21/03/16 7:00 PM Reply


  • I wish my worst losing run was 33!!!! I touched 57 in febuary lol only betting £1-2 a go was still painfull but if i’d been going £5 or more the mrs would have killed me 🙂

    james.b 21/03/16 7:30 PM Reply


    • Hah, yes its a roller coaster all right if you play a lot of longshots but I honestly believe on a small bankroll its the only way to make a meaningful profit. Oh, and the only way these systems make money is to use Betfair SP, at Industry SP I would have to bin about 60 of them!

      Steve Veasey 21/03/16 7:56 PM Reply


  • Id say your profit graph is like a richter scale lol but obviously it works for you steve

    gerry 21/03/16 8:10 PM Reply


    • It can feel like it sometimes, all you can do is trust in the stats from previous years – and cull the ideas that have had their day after an annual review. Here’s one for free, Anthony Honeyball has somehow forgotten how to win Handicap Hurdles but the markets still generally price his runners like its 2014…

      Steve Veasey 21/03/16 8:34 PM Reply


      • Actually, thats me talking through my pocket :-)the system I have for him is currently on a 0-18 run but he did make a substantial profit across the whole of 2015 so its just a question of riding the losing run out. like always,,,

        Steve Veasey 21/03/16 8:39 PM Reply


        • funny you mention these losing streaks, as ive just been watching these videos and other related ones of Hugh Taylor and that Willoughby guy on ATR discussing similar stuff

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0_mGyiV1ng

          I always imagined Hugh was Scottish – no idea why and you can tell i dont have Sky! That Willoughby guy is very articulate I find, just desperately uncharismatic!

          Ali 22/03/16 12:47 AM Reply


      • Nope, he still knows how to train them! Certainly in winter season when 12/1< SP... 15/38,19 places +35 SP (fair bit more earlier prices) 42 bfsp... 0/10,3 places in 2016 to date. No need to not be backing those just yet 🙂 Handicap chases is a different ball game altogether though.

        Josh Wright 21/03/16 8:43 PM Reply


  • If So Oscar in the 4.40 at exeter had Paddy Brennan onboard it would be fairly confident bet based on their combined stats in chases

    gerry 21/03/16 8:23 PM Reply


    • Fergal has a profitable record overall in novice hcp chases, even with Conor Shoemark on board (although sample includes just 3 winners) so there is still confidence in this bet

      Big step up in trip interesting. Jumped pretty well LTO especially considering it was run at a very fast gallop. So i’d expect a clear round of jumping, and might have something on at 14’s in hope that he’ll stay the trip

      Another profitable Fergal angle that I discovered was to back his chasers on their 1st, 2nd or 3rd chase start. His chasing newcomers seem to be well trained and well placed

      Ali 22/03/16 12:59 AM Reply


  • 4:55 WETHERBY
    Top Cat Henry non runner today for gambling lovers

    Pab 21/03/16 8:43 PM Reply


    • Yeah I am on Top Cat Henry as well as Free of Charge (Exeter 16:40) and Somerset Jem (Exeter 17:10)

      Nick Mazur 21/03/16 10:15 PM Reply


      • Gold Ingot that race looks good i won with that trainer today
        later i will check
        5:15 EXETER
        Tokyo Javilex

        and 14:45 Wetherby Nicki’s Nipper 20/1 maybe good ew bet need to check BSP

        Pab 21/03/16 10:41 PM Reply


        • Nickis Nipper is an exciting outsider (well, now into 8/1). Had to have e/w interest last night betfair at 25s

          The Drakes have done a great job lately of transforming horses from other yards. This one has improved the last two runs and will hopefully do so again. A plucky running-on 3rd latest suggests an improvement over the extra distance

          Ali 22/03/16 1:19 PM Reply


      • Somerset Jem – Im on too

        This one should go in the stats/angles of interest. I’ve banged on about Bishop’s hcp hurdlers before!

        I have a soft spot for this one, seeing him dot up on hcp debut with a bit of my money on it! Travels so strongly and surely has the pick of the form, chasing a decent Nicholls animal home LTO. Also looked as though the extra few furlongs may help – had plenty of running in him at the end

        Ali 22/03/16 1:26 AM Reply


        • Have added Bishop/Handicap Hurdlers to my list of angles to research, and will try and do so at some point!

          Josh Wright 22/03/16 12:34 PM Reply


          • good stuff. won’t be a big job to research – only a small stable. very interesting though. he seems to have a few decent-looking horses on his hands, SJ being one of them, and plots well with them. Tara Tavey, who I missed amidst the Cheltenham distraction plummeted down the handicap to then dot up at 14/1

            Ali 22/03/16 1:14 PM Reply


          • He is particularly good at Exeter. My bet is win given the price however 7/9 have placed in the past two years. Kicking myself about Tara who I also missed. Can’t believe the price it went off at given more than prime conditions. I think if they retain he claimer might be good enough to go in again on good ground unless she gets put up a lot.

            Nick Mazur 22/03/16 1:54 PM Reply


  • 3:40 EXETER
    Wizards Bridge 19/1 Tizzard/OBrian

    Pab 22/03/16 12:00 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    Re Southwell – over 5f in a field of twelve, stalls 1-6 have historically had a big advantage. Go to the Attheadverts website and click on the 2.20 card. Keep clicking on draw until you get to Generate Draw and a bar chart appears. That will give you an idea of the bias. The reason is in my opinion, two tractors go around the course side by side rolling the surface. They overlap in the middle which has the effect of compounding the surface in the centre. It is a bit like a beach where the tide has gone out on one part and it is easier to run on than on the sandy parts where the tide has not reached. This has been the case for all the years I have studied Southwell which is one of the most interesting tracks to study.

    Richard Sutton 22/03/16 10:30 AM Reply


    • Thanks Richard, as it so happens Matt over at Geegeez has just released a new set of Draw tools for his racecards – which will help no end this flat season, esp with ability to look at record on different ground etc. Still, pace is usually the most important but would appear some bias at Southwell, and my one is at least on the right side!

      Josh Wright 22/03/16 12:59 PM Reply


      • Yes the Geegeez idea is good as it includes A/E and I/V. I do however like to use more than one tool as they can be over different time spans.

        Richard Sutton 22/03/16 1:59 PM Reply


  • Trainer quote from Racing Post website.
    “Azure Fly is back from a break and should appreciate the better ground, while he is also getting more than a stone from Drop Out Joe, which will help his chance”

    jon 22/03/16 11:02 AM Reply


  • Godsmejudge is interesting? BA OTF > fields of 11 or < – 2512121 Jan13 – Ben Aitken – since then

    his runs in <11 runners read 105 this is his 4th from 16 starts since but the first where he is running way below his highest winning rating, not long back Apr14 was clocking rpr's in the 150's, here is off 127 could prove too well h'capped for rest imho & can' see Just A Par give him 20lb & a beating.

    Andy Silvers 22/03/16 12:27 PM Reply


    • Yep, clearly a case can be made – esp on handicapping terms – all means sod all mind, if he is just an out of form horse. Needs that headgear to work big time, which it may well do. That second at Donny wasnt that good for me, winner would have won by twice the distance and he just plugged on – his run last time out was most disappointing. There is a reason why his rating has dropped so much.

      In terms of his small field profile – that is interesting, but he isn’t one of those that ‘needs’ a small field – in sense he has won a Scottish National – some as we know just cant win in bigger fields, getting claustrophobic etc. He isn’t one of those. Depending on how some run here, this could turn out to be quite uncompeitive. . If he repeats any of his best performances from the past, then yes he could well dot up. I made the judgement, on his recent form, that at 5/1 I was happy to take him on. Trainer 1/28 in last 30 days, 0/15 last 14, and is now 0/13 at track.

      You may of course think that 5s is a great price. What a game! 🙂

      Josh Wright 22/03/16 12:38 PM Reply


      • Hasn’t run here b4 – best figs & 2-3-9 Mar/Apr & 2-3-8 under today’s jockey w-p-r 9lb clear top rated on my figs ahead of Hobbs fav, I backed him at 13/2 on betfair. There are 4 beaten fav’s in this race & JAP has to give them all 9lb+ EW at best imho he was 15/s on bf a minute ago

        Andy Silvers 22/03/16 12:59 PM Reply


        • You make a good case – but there is nothing from his profile which makes me think he will suddenly bounce back into form- connections clearly hoping the headgear does it. You may end up being right – on past form he isn’t going to be a surprise winner – i just didn’t like his price, against his recent form.
          You know me and weight Andy – we are different in that sense – I don’t pay much attention to x giving x x amount of pounds- JAP for me can win a handicap from this mark – yet to prove he can’t and at his best (admittedly 2013) he would manage it. I took a chance at 12s – If he runs badly – that has nothing to do with his rating/what he is giving others. If GodsMJ is just out of form, he could receive 30lb from JAP and it wouldn’t matter.
          Market suggest JAP isnt going to win, we shall see.
          Good Luck, If mine bomb out I will be cheering on Bertie, and then GodMJ! Being back with Hutch may spark him back also, good point. (am already whisking the egg!!)

          Josh Wright 22/03/16 1:07 PM Reply


          • Feb last year he was beaten carrying 11 8 9l’s by a horse carrying 11 1 in a 4 runner race over CD – when he won 365 he was carrying 10 0 stone

            Godsmejudge ts – rpr – OR 124 153 [+26] 127

            JAP 131 155 [+8] 147

            I could be wrong but I don’t think he can win a h’cap from 147 unless he getting lots of weight? Can’t see any weight carrying previous in his profile?

            Andy Silvers 22/03/16 1:23 PM Reply


      • Patternform have a tool called Formbet which takes the latest two runs from the last three months in today’s discipline, ie Chase/Hurdle. Basically it is using a diluted version of RPR ratings. Gods Me Judge is five spots clear from it’s penultimate run so effectively has recent form good enough to win today with a bit in hand. In theory anyway!

        Richard Sutton 22/03/16 1:41 PM Reply


        • Yep, like i said, if his cheekpieces spark him into life it may do. And, ok, that plugging on second two runs ago may be good enough, esp if he can build on it. My decisions are all in context of price don’t forget, my own judgement was that my own misgivings made 5/1 short enough for me. He may well romp home. JAP has only had 8 handicap runs, and he rarely runs a good race – was happy to take 12s that he might run a good one today!

          Josh Wright 22/03/16 1:44 PM Reply


          • It could win today but seems a little short. Personally would think they’re aiming him for either another crack at the Scottish National or the B365 Cup at Sandown both next month. Obviously you could say the same about Just A Par but at least you’re getting the odds to compensate for that. Guess we will know in a couple of hours.

            Nick Mazur 22/03/16 2:05 PM Reply


  • some WEBSITE! YOU OFFER A TIP OF THE DAY BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE IT!

    Alex Hamilton 22/03/16 1:29 PM Reply


    • Ah and hello to you too Alex,and welcome. Glad your first contribution is so positive. Did you finger get stuck on the caps lock, or is that to indicate you are angry/shouting into your lap top screen…

      I would suggest you click the ‘Members Club’ tab at top of this site – and that explains all.

      They are not too hard to find, generally my tips come under ‘TIPS’.

      And no, I don’t offer a tip of the day, not sure where you read that.

      These Daily posts are updated by 10am on day of racing at latest. After that point you know they are complete. Any tips, are highlighted under ‘TIPS’ in the daily post, as above. When you see a staking amount ie 1 point win, you know it is a tip.

      The fact you managed to comment on this blog post would suggest it is not too impossible. you can go to http://www.racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog – newest post is always at the top on the left hand side. 2390 odd other people manage to do it every day without too much of a problem.

      However, I will agree with you that design wise, the blog could be better – at times it is a bit clunky/tricky to navigate.(and I am working on that) But, you don’t have to read it, plenty of blogs out there that will give you shit free tips, and point you to a bookie offer whereby they make money on how much you lose with that account over time. I don’t really care 🙂

      Josh

      Josh Wright 22/03/16 1:37 PM Reply


      • Nice one, Touche.

        Richard Sutton 22/03/16 1:43 PM Reply


  • Oh well, got the money back thanks to

    Closer To Home – One Trick trainer 4 month – thought too big after yesterday stable win.

    Dubai In Bloom – by mistakenly thinking by Dubawi (ever read On Course Profits? Free monthly emag shows Dubawi’s are profitable as 3yo’s) & trainer stats for course OK

    Jasani – Backed & Layed for a profit jockey stats ok thought too big for in an open race, wish I hadn’t cashed out would be well up (still am but could’ve been a really, really good day!)

    & finally thanks to old mucker Eric Winner tipping Sir Geoffrey 11/1 – should look him up his tips are free & profitable.

    Andy Silvers 22/03/16 4:57 PM Reply


  • I have unexpected win on Railway Storm 10/1 nice win on Top Cat Henry
    nice ew on Upton Wood
    but my 1500/1 triple has failed

    Pab 22/03/16 6:26 PM Reply


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