Members Report: 19/03/16 (COMPLETE)

UPDATE: A poor day tipping wise – clearly I should have taken it off! Awful. No kind of run for any of them. I will just move on from that. One of those days. Poor old Golden Chieftan – the moral winner – I would never have picked him for that given the race profile, his exposed nature and his hard run LTO. FireBird Flyer – a solid EW bet for the race but I expected an unexposed one to take this, but it was a day for historical trends/stats to be busted. Thankfully Nicky Henderson rescued my day and the micros came to the rescue. 

I believe that leaves March on +2 points to date. 

***

A brilliant week of racing at Cheltenham has flown by and I will be trying to repeat last year’s feat of finding the Midlands National winner. Punting wise it was also OK, nothing more than that – as a benchmark I would take +8.5 points every year, as a minimum. I will reflect a bit more on The Festival in next week’s ‘weekly diary’, but I have learnt plenty. My methods found/highlighted plenty of winners and there were three that genuinely got away – Pipes at 16/1, the Pertemps winner 20/1 and Ibis D-R for Nicholls yesterday – 20/1 (he had three micro qualifiers in that race,as alerted to on blog,and I ‘tipped’ his other two!! – plonker!) So, it could have been spectacular, but in year’s ahead we will have a +50 point Festival, and I find that exciting. And of course, in a way the week isn’t about betting at all – as long as you come out alive and around break-even at worse! 

The stats/race profiles/trainer micros work – as simple as that.(need a bit more focus on jockeys) Just then my judgement! 🙂 Anyway, it was a thoroughly enjoyable week – the only downer was the fact Cue Card couldn’t complete – that would have been some race after the last, But, he had that in his locker, and that is the fastest he had probably gone all season. He profited when DC fell at Kempton. That is racing. If you ever get to see THE ‘Don’ at a track it is a sight to behold. I saw him at Aintree last year and he is the best horse I have ever seen, on looks alone he would never lose a race. A worthy winner. Victoria Pendleton also lit up the day. Superb achievement. I didn’t bet on any of the outcomes but was quite adamant that she would complete – she is one of our most decorated Olympians, let alone the most successful female Olympian – she was always going to be ready, and she rode better than a lot in that race. She will be back, year after year I suspect, and good on her. She loves the animals and loves the sport and tens/hundres of thousands were thinking/aware of  Cheltenham, when they otherwise wouldn’t have been. That is a positive. 

We have to take a moment to remember those horses that lost their lives – there were a few too many for my own comfort.(was it 7?) Not sure why that was – I suspect the sudden change to good ground, plus ‘festival pace’ meant many were going/jumping at a pace that they were not used to. Those conditions will also find out any frailties in the bones etc. But, they live and are treated like kings when they are with us. Still, it isn’t very nice. (watch the JP features through the week on RUK if you can,at his barn with all his old warriors, if you want to lift your mood) 

Moving onto today… 

 

BIG RACE PREVIEW 

4.10 Uttoxeter

Sizing Coal – 1/2 point win – 6/1 (PP) 5/1 general – PU

Count Guido Deiro – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) – PU 

Cultram Abbey – 1 point win – 28/1 (BV/Coral/WH) 25/1 (general) – PU

 

I will try and keep these shorter, as my brain is a bit frazzled after an intense week. 

As you can see in my trends post, there are some strong pointers for this race. On the stats I used it narrowed it down to these three, plus Red Devils Lads. Bowens would have qualified also if lining up. 

Sizing Coal – he is unexposed and connections won this race last year. I think he is short enough, especially as the ground here is not going to be hock-deep. So, I have put him in a saver material. I think he has a great chance mind and looks sure to stay- well based on that Irish National run in any case. He could have plenty to come over this trip. He will pay for the other bets if he does win, but I wasn’t tempted to ‘unload’. Maybe another at the top of the market I have got wrong, we shall see. My mind has gone from going 2 point win, 1 point win, and now this.

Count Guido Deiro – well I don’t know what the ground is here but the fact Venetia has pulled her two out would suggest it isnt heavy. He looks like he needs it soft, so hopefully there is plenty of that about. I backed him at Sandown a couple of starts ago and I don’t know what happened there, seemingly travelling well for one circuit. Anyway, I tipped him LTO where he won well from the front, over hurdles. He is unexposed in this sphere and NTD has won this race, and has a great record at the track, esp with his handicap chasers. He is the right end of the weights. It may be he doesn’t quite like chasing but that run, albeit for one circuit, showed me plenty of promise as a chaser. Anyway, he is 20/1 and that allows plenty of chances to be taken. He should race prominently enough and can hopefully get into a decent rhythm.

Cultram Abbey – well he is on the shortlist and is a monster price. He looks like he needs it soft and looks like a through stayer. The fact they ran him in the Eider LTO suggests connections think so too. He fell early there but that may have taught him a thing or two and he is still entitled to be learning. And he is 28/1! At Wetherby he jumped really well, and just kept galloping. If he completes he looks like one who could just keep grinding away past tired rivals. Richards doesn’t send many here, but he has a very good record when he does – 2/3,3 places with handicappers here in last 730 days.

Of the rest…well Cogry is interesting and could go well, he only falls down on the runs at track stat, as does Subtle Grey – he has been winning small field chases and this will be a new test. The former has had a few goes at this kind of trip without ever really seeing it out – albeit this is maybe a weaker race than he has been used to. He can make errors also. There are solid stats reasons to oppose the rest and having gone through them ‘without stats eyes’ there isn’t anything else jumping out at me. Firebird Flyer is in form and is entitled to go well but has an exposed profile for this race.

 

TIPS

5.00 Kempton 

Firm Order – 1.5 points win – 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general) PU 

This one is more simple – we backed him the last day and I was always going to back him when coming out next.(if conditions were fine) He unseated that day when I thought he looked ready to do business…the way he ran over the first couple suggested to me he was up for it. I am delighted he returns here to a course where he has won, he is better going RH, and is ridden by a jockey who knows him well – he is a young lad but I suspect he probably rides this one out at home a lot – although guessing there. He has won on him and while inexperienced, 9s was fair. This is also a rather weak race, with many unproven over fences. A few unexposed ones but he is so well handicapped now, esp with his claim. If he can run anything like some of his more recent better runs, then he won’t be far away, even at his grand age. If he doesn’t win this I doubt I will ever back him again. 

***

That will all be for ‘tipping’ today. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

March Trainers

1.50 Uttox – Pougne Bobbi – (12/1 or shorter ‘<‘) 2nd 

2.05 Kemp – Brain Power (12/1<) WON 4/9

3.15 Kemp – Champagne Express DNQ/Gold Present DNQ/Might Bite WON 10/1>8/1

4.20 Font – Maestro Royal (12/1<) 2nd 7/1

Jumps Handicappers

2.35 Font – Lost Arca (14/1<) UP 

4.55 Font – Red Devils Star (20/1<) UP 

5.10 Newc – Redkalani (12/1<) UP 

Other

Saturday Trainer/Jock Combo: 3.50 Kemp – Atirelarigo (14/1<) UP (Johnson didn’t ride in the end) 

***

That is all for today. Good Luck. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Can’t really see the Point of Backing at Cheltenham. Not to go for profit. or Break even . Generally waste of time going through the races backing 1/3 E.w for a Nil return. Turned my attention to lesser cards 5 good priced Winners from 9 bets 3 placers Inc 7/1 6/1. Prices made by punters ignoring/ trying for winners at Chelt. My advice Steer clear of Festival. Royal Ascot and Newmarket. We’re all better served looking for Value elsewhere than trying to solve conundrum of big race fields . When we cant possibly know how horses are being trained up for Big ones. Also Most Races Spoilt by Mullins entries 63 This year I think . Can’t back them in the Main . But how can you leave them out. Great to read your Page though Josh and Contributers luck R

    Richard 19/03/16 10:24 AM Reply


    • Well each to our own Richard and well done for a great week, away from the Festival. It will always be prominent for me, and on this blog – and that is for one main reason – it is the greatest puzzle and greatest challenge of the year, jumping wise – and, that is why I love this sport. The betting/profits is nice, but I am driven by trying to solve the puzzle – that is what I enjoy – and as such to leave the greatest puzzle of them all would be cheating myself! And, I am ok at finding/identifying winners there – with the right approach it is challenging, but not impossible – and also the chance to find 16/1+ shots that have a real chance.
      But that is just me 🙂

      Josh Wright 19/03/16 10:28 AM Reply


      • Good Luck Josh. I too enjoy the puzzle. Spend most of the Midnight oil that way. No criticism meant or implied. Been at this for about 45 Years. Runs in family . Grandad and Father bookies runners back in the good old days. When bookies also did a runner after a Bad day. Not so Good for Dad Had to be on lookout for Angry Punters and Plod. He’s motto was always Liitle Fish are Sweet. When I was Looking for Big prices.

        Richard 19/03/16 10:58 AM Reply


  • Good Luck today Josh, interestingly I have had Firm Order off my usual source and looking at it one of the few proven over the trip….back to PENDO Miss Pendleton for a moment, we clearly agree about her achievement but I do believe she could do Racing in general another massive favour.

    With the switch to ITV next year C4 and ITV – using which ever production Company they have simply has to RID RACING of the dross we have to put up with now,,,

    Nick Luck; Graham Cunningham; Jim McGrath; Emma Spencer; Tanya Stephenson and that annoying Irish twonk they put with her; Clare Balding the simply grating Mick Fitzgerald; Rishi Persad and Co…ALL for Room 101…

    The outstanding MATT CHAPMAN the equally outstanding LYDIA HISLOP; the potentially outstanding Jeremy Kyle and the charming PENDO….what a combo that would be for Racing on ITV…..the knowledge is there, the Presenting Skills are there, no boring monotone anoraks…..lets start a campaign…

    Ian 19/03/16 10:24 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ian, yep agree about Victoria…actually, think of the features she could do, going to yards, riding out etc? Behind the scenes, and would have her journey to the race next year to follow. Am sure there is some kind of place for her.
      Issue is, us racing anoraks have two racing channels if we want it – so terrestrial has to be something different – to be informing but entertaining.

      I agree with all those – I really like Chapman – proper marmite character which i think is great. But, that will start some debate! And also Lydia, she is superb. Kyle could hold it all together quite well and would bring in a new audience. I bet you he wants that role and he loves the sport – I wouldnt be opposed to him – has clearly pigeon holed himself in career to date – but think he would step up to that new challenge.

      Agree C4 gets a bit stale. Geoff Banks is the only person who ever livens up a Morning Line!

      Josh Wright 19/03/16 10:35 AM Reply


      • Does anybody REALLY care who presents the terrestrial racing broadcasts? I haven’t watched any of them for years, I already know what I am betting on the night before so unless they constantly give out worthwhile inside information about fancied runners at value prices I don’t see the point. They should just show cartoons between the races 🙂

        Steve Veasey 19/03/16 11:58 AM Reply


        • haha I take your point – well I just like collapsing on the couch on a Sat afternoon, and it would be good for it to be more engaging. Yes, I don’t watch for ‘information’ – indeed I deliberately avoid reading/listening to other peoples opinions until I have decided on my own bets. Just want to be entertained for a couple of hours.

          Josh Wright 19/03/16 12:04 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh. From the Stables (top of the Hills radio nap table) has napped Cultram Abbey, which does tend to support the feeling that connections are confident.
    Paul

    Paul 19/03/16 11:10 AM Reply


  • I like Courttown as well as Guido in the 4.10. How much will my dual forscast pay?

    Watch out for Braavos in the 3.35 at Utt.

    Good luck and enjoy the rest post Festival. My brain needs it. Nina dug me out of a hole as had her at 3/1. I needed a banker every day to come up fairly even and got away with it. Onto Aintree now!

    Martin Colwell 19/03/16 11:51 AM Reply


    • Yep I did think about On The Fringe at 3s but bottled it- knowing which favs to back/lump on/avoid is important there, and generally,but is an area to look at. Although, one year, it wont be like this, with big priced horses going in left, right and centre.

      Ah Aintree – Grand National meeting usually a graveyard for me! Will be going steady there. The big one, the 3m handicap chase,+ the others over GN fences will probably be it, we shall see. I go all three days and it is a relaxing/social occasion for me, so will be lighter on here!

      Eyes turning to the flat as well! Lots of research to crack on with.

      Good luck with Courttown,but not too much – Would take Count winning, Courttown in second. Would please us both!

      Josh Wright 19/03/16 11:59 AM Reply


  • Really enjoy the blog,informative and very well thought out.
    Cheltenham has and always will be a spectacle, i enjoy Aintree more, always enjoyed Goodwood more than Royal Ascot for the very same reason, believe them both to be very good in their own right,but, always more trying harder at the second events rather than the first.
    Like you say each to their own.
    Keep up the good work though!!

    Stewart 19/03/16 11:57 AM Reply


    • Cheers Stewart, much appreciated. Glad you like my ramblings! And thanks for reading.
      I relish Aintree as an occasion – havent missed a race day there in 8 years now – so, will happily take some tips betting wise, normally carnage for me (bar the Beecher chase in autumn) and I will be going easy I think.

      Josh Wright 19/03/16 12:02 PM Reply


  • Ken Slack has his first ever runners at Uttoxeter today, a bit off the beaten track of his usual Northern haunts but he’s in such phenomenal form its worth having a look at them I think. Jokers and Rogues in the 2:25 and Almost Gemini in the 3:35.

    Steve Veasey 19/03/16 12:05 PM Reply


  • My eyes tend to glaze over looking at Cheltenham cards so I just followed your tips and spent the 5 mins it took to pick out some gems at sedefield and hexham,its the highlight of racing calendar so its nice to come out on top,now Aintree is a different matter,you know which horses are at peak from this week,might be some close that will be cherry ripe in few weeks,so I happilyly leave the puzzles to you josh,just had a little fun cash bet on Standing Ovation while in town,roll on aintree

    gerry 19/03/16 12:21 PM Reply


  • Count Guido Deiro –Cultram Abbey –nice find

    Sizing Coal is to short

    Pab 19/03/16 1:19 PM Reply


  • Personally I believe that going out of the first 6 in the Betting in any race is committing Financial Suicide. however Contrary you want to be. Privy to some inside Contrary information last week via a mug Mate losers every day bar One . Would have Made a fortune. 3/1 Winner today and 6/4 2nd
    Surely Flying Firebird ‘ should have been on Radar. Not my sort of race

    Richard 19/03/16 5:10 PM Reply


    • That isnt how I play it Richard and quite happy with my historical results/profit/ROI etc. It isn’t financial suicide, quite the opposite – well for me anyway. And of course, you are always wanting to back a horse at bigger odds that gets backed. Its about profit, not winners.
      Yes he was, but given the race profile stats I used, this race has always gone to one less exposed. Just one of those, and he would have been a very lucky winner. I try and work out who I think is overpriced and has a chance of getting competitive and could go close and win. Firebird Flyer was arguably a save EW bet given his recent staying form. But, that always easy to say after they have just won. That’s racing.
      You have to be right a lot more at the top end of the market – but, there are plenty of punters who do very well in the 6/4-3/1 region – I am not one of them.

      Josh Wright 19/03/16 5:26 PM Reply


  • I ve been stupid or simply tired becouse betting forecast was showing Count Guido Deiro Cultram Abbey like a loosers Kempton bet was ok sim[ly risk you take or go away bet checking beting forecast is often priceless

    Pab 19/03/16 6:06 PM Reply


  • Was at Kempton today. Nice to see Might Bite dot up! May have edged out a profit for the day thanks to that

    ali 19/03/16 6:52 PM Reply


  • I use a cheap paid service called Elite Service from a tipster site I got off racing index; very similar logic to josh and similar write ups, costs me £50 for a year, last 4 tipped races Superb Story 8/1; Ibis Du Rheu 14/1; Savello placed 25/1 and today Firebird Flyer advised at 14/1 – actually won at 16/1; they do very well on racing index proofing and very interesting how their logic and josh’s pick very similar profile horses so hopefully both will keep up the great work – donation on way josh and a bot extra than last month for the fun at cheltenham.

    enjoy the very well deserved day off. ,

    Ian 19/03/16 7:11 PM Reply


  • A few contributors seem to have a bias against WIllie Mullins. His owners are entitled to have their horses take their chance at the festival like every other owner. Also the majority of his runners justified their entries.

    Jim Kennedy 19/03/16 7:37 PM Reply


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