Saturday Big Race Trends

The only trends race of note this Saturday for me is the Imperial Cup from Sandown. There are a few decent pointers albeit I am not sure what kind of shortlist it will produce! 

There is also a C3 3m handicap chase from the track that I will look at, albeit I don’t believe there are any trends for it. Also one at Ayr I may look at. So, we should have a few races to keep us busy and give us plenty of winnings to play with next week!! 🙂 

***

SANDOWN: IMPERIAL CUP

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 8/19 Won LTO
  • 13/19 Top 4 LTO
    • 13/223, 49 places…68% winners…61% runners…67% places
    • BD: 1/1
    • PU: 2/13, 5 places
    • Fell: 0/10, 1 place
    • 16/19 Top 4 LTO or did not complete
    • 3/19: 5th or worse (completed):
      • 3/109, 17 places…16% winners…30% runners…23% places

Horse Age

  • 14/19 aged 4-6
    • 7+ : 5/155,28 places…26% winners…43% runners…38% places

Days Since Run

  • 14/19 ran 16-60 days ago
    • 14/230, 47 places…74% winners…63% runners…64% places
    • 1-7 days: 0/20, 4 places
    • 61-120 days: 3/38,15 places
    • 121+: 0/17, 1 place

Horse Weight

  • 17/19 carried 11-1 or less (inc jockey claims)
    • 11-2+ : 2/87, 19 places…11% winners…24% runners…26% places

Horse Official Rating

  • 19/19 OR 138 or below
    • 139+ : 0/32, 7 places

Season Runs

  • 19/19 1-5 runs this season
    • 0: 0/13, 1 place
    • 6+ : 0/72, 12 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • Run over 2m6.5f (22.5f) or further:0/27, 1 place

Position In Market

  • 18/19 Top 9 in market
    • 10th or lower: 1/163, 16 places

Odds

  • Winners at a variety of odds
    • 6/1 or shorter: 7/30, 13 places (4/1< 5/15,10 places)
    • 22/1-40/1: 1/113, 12 places
    • 50/1+ : 0/44, 1 place

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 5/132, 23 places
  • IRE: 6/102, 21 places
  • FR: 7/84, 20 places
  • GER: 1/23, 4 places
  • USA: 0/20, 3 places

Headgear

  • All headgear: 1/56, 8 places (win was in a visor, blinkers/CP both 0/18)

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 11-11+ : 0/17, 4 places
  • 11-2+ : 2/102, 20 places…11% winners…28% runners…27% places
  • 10-7 or less: 12/130 , 30 places…63% winners…36% runners…41% places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear Top Weight: 1/18, 5 places
    • Winner was 1998…last 4 years, 3 of 4 top weights have placed. It is now a G3, maybe classier horses coming to fore…

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 0-1: 0/10, 1 place
  • 2-8: 10/110, 30 places…53% winners…30% runners..41% places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-2 handicap runs: 10/102, 26 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 2-8 hurdle runs: 16/19…16/193, 48 places…84% winners…53% runners…66% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0-2 handicap hurdle runs: 14/19…14/147, 36 places
  • 14+ : 0/31, 4 places

H- Run (track)

  • 0-1 run at track: 18/19…18/315, 65 places
  • 2+ : 1/49, 8 places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 17/18 had won at least once in last 5 starts
    • Had not: 1/85, 12 places
    • 14/18 had won at least one of last 3

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 17/18 had placed at least once on last 3 starts
    • Had not: 1/46, 6 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 19/19 had 0-2 hurdle wins to name
    • 3+ : 0/131, 21 places..36% runners…28% places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 19/19 0-2 handicap hurdle wins:
    • 3+ : 0/42, 6 places

H-Win (Season).

  • 3+ wins: 0/34, 8 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 19/19 had finished at least 4th on one of last 3 starts
    • Had not: 0/25, 3 places

Best in Five Runs

  • 17/19 had won at least once in last 5 starts
    • 19/19 Top 3 at least once in last 5 starts
    • Had Not: 0/24, 3 places

Highest Class Win

  • G1/2: 0/15, 3 places
  • 12/18 had not won above C3 before

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 6+ places in hurdles (inc wins): 1/101, 17 places
  • 9+: 0/37, 8 places

Jockey Claims

  • 16/19 no claims
  • 3lb: 0/31, 0 places
  • 5lb: 2/38, 7 places
  • 7lb: 0/28, 4 places
  • 10lb:1/2, 1 place

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Chase: 0/15, 1 place

(LR) Track

  • Chelt: 4/18, 4 places
  • Ascot: 2/25, 10 places
  • Newb: 2/56, 15 places
  • Leop: 2/8, 3 places
  • Ludlow: 2/7, 3 places
  • Sand: 2/18, 7 places
  • Kempt: 1/44, 5 places
  • 1 each: Fontw/Weth/Chep/Hayd
  • Taunt: 0/16, 3 places
  • Muss: 0/13, 0 places
  • Newc: 0/9, 0 places
  • Winct: 0/21, 1 place
  • Donc: 0/17, 3 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Team Pipe: 7/37, 16 places (M 4/22, D 3/15)
  • 1 win each: Henderson (1/20,2p) / Hobbs (1/14,6p) / Mongan/Newland/Mrs N Smith/Longsdon/Wadham/A Moore/P Webber/A Balding/B Curley/A McGuinness
  • E Williams: 0/4, 2 places
  • A King: 0/10, 0 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/16, 1 place
  • Gary Moore: 0/18, 5 places
  • P Nicholls: 0/14, 3 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/9, 1 place
  • B Ellison: 0/9, 1 place

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • 0-2 hurdle wins to name only
  • 1-5 runs only this season
  • Never run over 22.5f or further before
  • Top 3 at least once in last 5 starts

I will see what kind of shortlist this produces. This profile covers all previous winners. There are a few more stats we could then use if this doesn’t create much of a shortlist! Of course you are free to focus on the stats you prefer.

***HAVING just looked, that profile doesnt help too much. Of the 28 currently lined up it only helps exclude 7. Nearly all of them in here are unexposed. Looks a right puzzle! Will have to use some others to narrow it down further ***

(Some of the stats are out of 18 as opposed to 19 and I am not 100% sure why!)

Also, this race has changed in class a few times, going from a C2 through to a Class 1 Grade 3 in recent years. That is just something to note for now and keep in mind. The profile of winners looks fine, just maybe over time those classier types with better ratings and higher up the weights may come to do best. 3 of last 4 top weights have placed. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • It used to be one of the most eagerly awaited handicaps when there was a bumper pot for any horse to try to win here and at Cheltenham just a few days later, I recall the likes of Martin Pipe; Reg Akehurst and a few Northern yards having a real pop at it and Pipe would usually find something a stone in front of the handicapper.

    The advent of the closed handicaps at Cheltenham – setting marks a few weeks in advance and the new declaration rules have reduced its interest no end and I gather as the race has no sponsor there is not even a decent Cheltenham inducement pot at all this year.

    A great shame imho

    Ian 09/03/16 3:46 PM Reply


  • Going to be an interesting puzzle. I had the winner of this last year although it was one of the weirdest feeling of being happy and gutted at the same having had the opportunity to purchase a share of the horse four months earlier for a fraction of what its worth now. Its meant to be aimed at this however I think that’s my heart ruling my head since really struggling to justify backing him again other than the fact that he is 1lb lower than last year. Barring a bad start I can see the favourite running away with this although I cant back him at the price in such a big field.

    Nick Mazur 10/03/16 12:59 PM Reply


  • Trying to decide if the favourite is bomb proof enough to back at the price particularly given the reduced field. Of the others I thought both Flying Angel and Knockgraffon looked very interesting although concerned that neither Skelton nor NTD have won a handicap hurdle here in five years (and 1/21 and 1/45 overall respectively). Sunshine Corner looks like a very interesting outsider and if there is a horse that’s going to break some of those stats above Solstice Star could be it given despite the five timer we cant be sure if he still isn’t unexposed but again neither trainer form at track impressive. Might lose the remainder of my hair trying to figure it out.

    Nick Mazur 11/03/16 11:57 AM Reply


  • I love this race. I have not had a look at the field yet but will do so later this evening.

    At the time my greatest gamble was with a Pipe horse when they were dominant in it. Do you remember Olympian? I backed him in this race a week before and for the county hurdle (or whatever race it was) at the same time and it won both an scooped the big bonus and me a lot of money!!

    Dont get me reminiscing or I will get onto the ITV 7 and the Dickinsons and Tommy Carmody and Im a Driver!

    Thanks for the analysis Josh.

    I was going to blog some notes on the London Racing Club preview evening, but Matt B from Geegeez has done so and so you can all read that. There was one funny thing. A guy in the audience had a serious go at the panel for not talking about Cue Card enough and not praising the horse for what it had done! What made it worse was Lydia Hislop made him worse by jokingly slagging the horse. She tried to explain she was joking but the guy took umbrage.

    Martin Colwell 11/03/16 7:18 PM Reply


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