Members Report: 06/03/16 (COMPLETE)

Re-Cap…Nothing to cheer on Saturday which is always disappointing but that’s how it goes, more often than not, when playing at those odds. Thankfully we havent had too many blank Saturdays. Shotavodka demolished his rivals at Newbury – I dont know why I left him out of my tentative stats shortlist on the blog (he had fewer than 5 chase wins etc) – he was on the notepad and rest assured I had a good look at him – concluding that I had stamina doubts! Sometimes horses make you look silly, and that was one of those. 0/8, 2 places beyond 2m6f before that, and this was his first try at nearly 26f. I thought he just plodded on last time and thought there would be stronger stayers in here. As it happened, bar Peat The Feat, nothing else really ran its race. He was able to saunter to victory as if on his gallops at home. Got that one wrong, clearly. 

So Fine jumped ok but could never really get into it. Same Difference has clearly lost his way and the fire has yet to be rekindled. I thought everything looked good for a decent run, not to be. 

It was nice to see The Last Samuri win at Donny like that – always nice to see previous winners for the blog continue to progress. I was happy to take him on at 3s with one at a bigger price that I deemed overpriced. I also had some slight niggles about the fav on that ground, as it would appear the trainer did also. Again that is going to happen, and has happened, a lot – not every fav you take on is going to bomb out sadly. Clearly you dont want to take on too many that win like that, and when they do you always wish you had 2 pointed at 3s!  He looks sure to run a massive race in the Grand National (as discussed after his Kempton run) if taking to the fences. Band of Blood never really looked happy and we got no run for our money, not that it mattered in the end.

So, -3 points on the day, -4.5 points for the week. 

Thankfully for us micro systems followers we had a rather good day, to make up for my tipping disappointment. +10.5 points to add to the pot. 

***

TIPS

No Tips. 3.30 Hunt looks a bit messy and having had a quick look I am happy to leave it. Jac The Legend goes at Sedgefield and looks to have a great chance to me, plenty of pace to aim at and should relish the heavy – but he is 5/4, so will leave. That may transpire to be value, but not odds I like playing at really. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

March Trainers

2.00 Hunt – Red Hammer (12/1 or shorter sp) 2nd 

Jumps Handicappers

4.20 Sedg- Dalby Spook (12/1 or shorter sp) UP

4.50 Sedg – Mia Matriarch (12/1 or shorter sp)

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Had few euro on shotofvodka while in town this morning,thought he might have been on your tips when I got home,anyway nice to pick up a crispy note from the bookies now and then

    gerry 05/03/16 5:06 PM Reply


    • Yep dont blame you Gerry – away from his form some decent pointers (his profile for race, trainers record) I just wasnt sure he would stay – suppose that was the only doubt and odds may have allowed a chance to be taken. He was fit, and in form – got that one wrong!

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 5:17 PM Reply


  • I won on Johny Ogg but disapoiment on Ultragold and Pythagore
    Ultragold was one of my ew 20/1 triple

    Pab 05/03/16 5:32 PM Reply


  • Kenneth Slack has good record at Sedgefield,Van Mildert might be worth a stab if ready to click after break,tricky race though with 4 or 5 in form rivals

    gerry 05/03/16 5:38 PM Reply


  • hi josh nice touch landed with ballyvaughn [ halle loo yaa for micros] 12 this morning on betfair and no i wasnt on at that price 6.8 not complaining its hard to keep your eye on everything there is always few i like to keep watch for movement in the right direction always seem to miss out i was asking Chris on hrb would it be possible to put a tag, alarm, on a horse if there was a move while you were studying something else like a goal scored on flash score that beep he said it would but very difficult it would be handy.any techy brains in your members p.k.

    paddy kearney 05/03/16 6:19 PM Reply


    • I was thinking twitter just did a search for the above & only pre-race mention was a comment to say backed from 11/s to fives so too late – I bet if u knew it was the owners 90th birthday & that he was sponsoring the race u might regret not taking the 12/s?

      If I fancy something like that I would try & back over the odds n hope to get matched n then cash out at some point, if it don’t get matched let it go & find something else that could outrun its odds even in running.

      I have just sent off for another screen so I can watch more markets at once – right now I have 15 pages open just doing my form study but during the day I want more more more.

      To be honest I don’t think you’re plan would work – a horse could just as easily ping-pong / rebound / shorten & lengthen again – if there was any real movement by the time u got your alert & you get to a machine the odds have gone.

      I just did a search on twitter for marketmovers’ & it would seem they’re big on it in Australia but not here.

      Andy Silvers 06/03/16 12:51 AM Reply


  • Onward and upward Josh – A very disjointed week for your good self with some difficult puzzles to solve particularly today. Relax was unfortunate for the Plums 2.38 in running before capsizing and to be fair your selections ran shockers but money only lent if normal service is resumed next week – You are clearly a cut above the rest !! Cheers Joe

    Joe 05/03/16 11:00 PM Reply


    • Haha cheers Joe,trying my best. As bad weeks go -4.5 points is rather manageable and it is hard to consistently find winners in big races on Saturdays! As I have said it is a profit game,not a winners game, but yes,no run for our money from any of them,which always irritates me!

      Josh Wright 05/03/16 11:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    What puts you off Arbeo particularly given his Huntigdon record? Are you worried he won’t stay? Surely the front two in the market have to be taken on.

    Nick Mazur 06/03/16 12:51 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick, I am put off the race more than a particular horse..feels like any one of 5 could win but they all have some questions/doubts and given small field the prices just were not enticing enough. Arbeo is 0/4,1 place beyond 3m in handicaps, guessing as to whether he will truly stay, but first try and such a trip. Don’t really think any of them are a great price given the questions they all have to answer. Feels like I would be picking something by default rather than really fancying it. But,don’t let me put you off having a go! Did see at Bangor that NTD is a good judge of young horses stepping up massively in trip and being only one open to any progress can understand his price.

      Josh Wright 06/03/16 8:30 AM Reply


    • Arbeo is 6/11 Jan to March; 4/10 in small fields; 3/9 when raced after 16- 30 days; soft going and below class 2 are +ive.

      Chris 06/03/16 12:10 PM Reply


      • Yep, stamina is only q,as it is for most in here. Sounds like you are having a bet! Gl

        Josh Wright 06/03/16 1:46 PM Reply


  • Disappointing day at Donny with all the non runners. Drop Out Joe got to the home straight, which is a long one at Donny and then he just….well dropped out. Most of damage was rescued by the last 3 jollies going in, all of which were well backed meaning I comfortably beat SP.

    Tony 06/03/16 9:18 AM Reply


  • Have had to pick one for 3.00 Hunt – going for Vinegar Hill mainly for age, jockey & trainer stats but it just so happens that my clear top 3 rated are the same as the cdg top 3 rated & two weeks ago similar scenario had a £7.800/1 tri-cast. This is my fourth attempt at trying to get a repeat for small stakes but race getting decimated?

    NOTE RATING ODDS
    Friendly Society bttr c – as +11 Imp’d gd grnd Apr12 – 140 17/s
    Lombardy Boy 131 40/s
    Vinegar Hill 129 11/1

    Andy Silvers 06/03/16 9:28 AM Reply


  • Not bad won 15/1 on Sutton Place and ew on Royal Caviar
    next Arctic Skipper 2.40 Nas
    Kylecrue Art Lord 16:40 Naas 18/1 and 33/1

    Pab 06/03/16 2:23 PM Reply


  • Harry Whittington/Gavin Sheehan combination,5.10 lingfield tomorrow Scarper 8/1 bet365,had impressive winner in last at huntindon

    gerry 06/03/16 5:14 PM Reply


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